AlphaMock V1 - 4 round mock (pre combine)

[cage]

7 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

There's no way a team trades mid 2nds and 3rds to move from 15 to 9.  While I'm not a firm believer in the value chart, 15 to 9 should only get a low 2nd rounder.  Giving every benefit of the doubt, they could get a mid 2nd to go up those 6 spots, but adding the 3rd is just way over the top.

 

Correct, here is value chart.  For Redskins to move up to #9 the value is net 300 pts.   Based on the Skins remaining picks the trade would likely be the Bills 1st (#9) and 4th (#105) for the Redskins 1st (#15) and 2nd (#48).  

 

Total Bills points on this is 1350 + 84 = 1434

Total Skins points on this is 1050 + 440 = 1490   Washington pays a slight premium for moving up for their QB

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=BUF

[Magox]

I think there is a chance Harry may time in the 4.6's if he decides to run the 40, strengthening the narrative of his inability to separate, similar to that of Boldin.

 

Such a deep WR class could help precipitate that fall.  I think he will be a fine pro, I just dont think he will be in the first 20 picks, specially if he times poorly.

[freddyjj]

7 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

There's no way a team trades mid 2nds and 3rds to move from 15 to 9.  While I'm not a firm believer in the value chart, 15 to 9 should only get a low 2nd rounder.  Giving every benefit of the doubt, they could get a mid 2nd to go up those 6 spots, but adding the 3rd is just way over the top.

Why not?  Bills gave up pick 12 in Rd 1 and 2 2nd Rd picks(53 and 56) last year to move up to 7.  Did get a late 7th (255) back too.  

[WideRightRevenge]

My only comment is I hear all this love for drafting TE's high in the draft .. and maybe that's years of the Gronk effect ... but I don't really see "game changers" at that position lately in the draft .. I just think we can wait till rounds 3-5 to address that position

 

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

 

For example the link above shows all the TE's drafted in the last few years .. George Kittle at SF was a 5th rounder and in my opinion he's the best of the bunch going back to 2015 ..my point is .. if we draft a stud .. they may bolt after their rookie contract ... but there aren't a lot of studs coming off their rookie pick .. hence we looking at say a Maxx Williams in FA.  But I don't really think OJ Howard, aforementoined Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst, Mike Gisecki, Dallas Goedert, Austin Saferian Jenkins .. all early picks have been game changes ... maybe Engram . .maybe Njoku ... maybe Hunter Henry .. but look at the carnage for those few nuggets.  Stick with OL early please.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

I think there is a chance Harry may time in the 4.6's if he decides to run the 40, strengthening the narrative of his inability to separate, similar to that of Boldin.

 

Such a deep WR class could help precipitate that fall.  I think he will be a fine pro, I just dont think he will be in the first 20 picks, specially if he times poorly.

 

I remember the expectation being that Mike Evans might time in the 4.6s as well at the combine and he timed 4.53 and guaranteed himself a top 10 spot. Now Harry isn't Mike Evans.... Evans was a more polished, more complete, more talented receiver. He was the guy I really wanted that year and I said even when everyone was going OBJ crazy that Evans would end up being the best WR in that class and when you look now at the end of their rookie contracts he has 5 more catches, around 700 more yards and only 4 fewer touchdowns.

 

The point of the Evans comparison is that he obviously worked flat out after the college season on that 40. I suspect Harry is doing the same. If he times in the 4.5s he is very likely a 1st round pick. If he times 4.6 then given that there is not much separating this group of WRs he could easily find himself slipping into the first few picks of day 2. If you are the Bills and he makes it out of round 1 you work the phones overnight and try and get up for him in the first 2 or 3 picks of day 2.

[CommonCents]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I remember the expectation being that Mike Evans might time in the 4.6s as well at the combine and he timed 4.53 and guaranteed himself a top 10 spot. Now Harry isn't Mike Evans.... Evans was a more polished, more complete, more talented receiver. He was the guy I really wanted that year and I said even when everyone was going OBJ crazy that Evans would end up being the best WR in that class and when you look now at the end of their rookie contracts he has 5 more catches, around 700 more yards and only 4 fewer touchdowns.

 

The point of the Evans comparison is that he obviously worked flat out after the college season on that 40. I suspect Harry is doing the same. If he times in the 4.5s he is very likely a 1st round pick. If he times 4.6 then given that there is not much separating this group of WRs he could easily find himself slipping into the first few picks of day 2. If you are the Bills and he makes it out of round 1 you work the phones overnight and try and get up for him in the first 2 or 3 picks of day 2.

I love Mike Evans as well. Comparing his career totals to OBJ’s is misleading. Evans has played 77 games and OBJ has only played in 59.

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, CommonCents said:

I love Mike Evans as well. Comparing his career totals to OBJ’s is misleading. Evans has played 77 games and OBJ has only played in 59.

 

The best ability is availability.

[Tatonka68]

1. Make Matt Pardis Center the highest paid center in the league.

2. Sign either Daryl Williams, Trent Brown or D'uan James at OT.

3. Take a chance and sign Tyler Eifert TE. Worth the gamble.

4. Trade down with Washington in exchange for the 15th and 46th pick.

5. 15th pick draft Christian Wilkens DT Clemson

6. 40th pick draft either Chris Linstrom, Dalton Risner or Martez Ivey for Guard. If necessary trade up. 

       Offensive Line would be FA from step 2, draft pick from step 6, Pardis, Teller, Dawkins.

7. 46th pick draft Marquise (Hollywood) Brown at WR. Speed kills the more the better.   

8. 74th pick draft RB Miles Sanders as back up/replacement for Shady.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Tatonka68

[Teddy KGB]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

I think there is a chance Harry may time in the 4.6's if he decides to run the 40, strengthening the narrative of his inability to separate, similar to that of Boldin.

 

I would welcome a guy that can’t separate like Boldin.   

 

His very first nfl game yielded 10 catches for 217 yards and 2 td’s  

 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

I would welcome a guy that can’t separate like Boldin.   

 

His very first nfl game yielded 10 catches for 217 yards and 2 td’s  

 

 

Oh I know, so would I.  I'm just putting on my amateur draft cap on and trying to speculate on outcomes. He is built like Boldin and looks impressive in stature and had good stats and seems to make all sorts of tough catches.    I just think there is a chance that he could time slow which on film he doesn't appear to be that fast and that his draft stock could fall, specially considering that there are lots of very intriguing prospects this year.    

 

I would love him in the 2nd round, just not so sure that I would be thrilled about him in the first.

[STL-Bills]

Please stop with the Harry love... 90% of the catches in his "highlight" video are either screen passes where he makes doodoo corners miss tackles, or downfield jump balls where instead of going up and getting the ball with his massive hands he lets it come down into his chest to make the catch. Catching the ball like that does not work in the NFL on a consistent basis. If we draft Harry, we will all be very disappointed.

[Spielman]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yes, this is pre combine version, and the WR's are all grouped together in the top 7 so someone mocked early could easily fall to the 2nd, and vice versa.  I honestly believe there are 7 WR's who all have a shot at being first WR drafted before we go to the combine.  I went with Harry now because I think he is fast enough, and he has just an insane catch radius and is a big strong guy who can go get those Josh Allen passes.  

I would like to see Hakeem Butler and Andy Isabella.  Butler looks faster than Harry (the combine will tell).  Also, no way Ford last until round 2.  I also like Risner, Deebo Samuel, and Terrell Hanks (Hanks in the 4th)

Edited January 29, 2019 by Spielman

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I was right with you there. I though both should take Quarterbacks but said all along the Giants were not and they wanted to take Barkley or someone to pay them a huge bounty for #2. Denver wasn't taking a QB because Elway is scared to miss again (and I wouldn't be certain they take one in the 1st this year either - could very much see them waiting until the 2nd or 3rd).

 

Washington does need a Quarterback and is very cap challenged. That leads me to think they might lean towards drafting one.... but it is just not a good class. If Kyler Murray measures, as some expect him to, 5'9 or 5'10 then for me the top of the draft is a 1 man class and if I was Washington then my choices would be twofold:

 

1. Get ahead of the Giants and take Dwayne Haskins;

2. Don't trade up for a 1st round QB and maybe trade back from #15 and take Lock or Jones later.

 

For the trade with Washington to be "in play" I think the Bills need two things to happen. 1 - they need Kyler Murray to measure 5'11 or taller. 2 - the need the Jags to go the veteran QB route (which I think they will). Otherwise I just don't think that trade makes sense for Washington.

 

 

 

 

 

All fair points, and don’t really disagree with anything here.  My mock is based on the demand for Murray being top 10.  Which is why this is a pre combine mock, lots will change in general once combine as well as free agency settles.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, STL-Bills said:

Please stop with the Harry love... 90% of the catches in his "highlight" video are either screen passes where he makes doodoo corners miss tackles, or downfield jump balls where instead of going up and getting the ball with his massive hands he lets it come down into his chest to make the catch. Catching the ball like that does not work in the NFL on a consistent basis. If we draft Harry, we will all be very disappointed.

 

I agree this is an issue on his tape that shows up at times however it isn't 90% of his catches. That is hyperbole.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

13 hours ago, Rc2catch said:

I never understood the mock stuff. It’s like playing the lotto. The odds are so insane of any of these things going down. 

I cant get into this stuff much until at least after the combine. Not that I put much stock in the combine b likeut that’s when things start shaping up 

it's the off season. boring times so threads like this help to pass the time.

 

nice work OP. as we all know these mocks will change but it's a positive way to pass the time.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

it's the off season. boring times so threads like this help to pass the time.

 

nice work OP. as we all know these mocks will change but it's a positive way to pass the time.

 

Yeah, I am in the “mocks don’t matter” crowd myself, so never put too much stock into them.   But really just did this to have a reference on how things shift after each stage of the offseason.  Free agency and combine will make significant chnges to everyone’s mock, so like you said just something to pass the time and see how things change along the way.

[buffaloboyinATL]

HELL yes on Henderson. Alpha, this would be an amazing four rounds.  Why are some people so down on Harry? From what I've seen, he looks like a beast.

[CommonCents]

I’m surprised so many people like Harry as much as they do. Just from browsing through some of Hakeem Butler’s games he looks superior. I have been on the DK train but Butler is right there for me. He is silky smooth I can’t believe he is 6’6. 

 

Reminds me of another 18.

 

6’6 225 and is expected to run a sub 4.5 40.

Edited January 29, 2019 by CommonCents

[Juice_32]

I love the idea of trading down in the first (unless Q. Williams or Oliver are there) and then using our later round picks to trade back up for specific players in the 4th and 5th. It could very well play out that way. I'd be surprised if we end up making more than 8 picks total. 

 

Something like this is possible if there is a QB run in the top 10...

 

1: R1P15

OT JONAH WILLIAMS

ALABAMA

2: R2P9

C DALTON RISNER

KANSAS STATE

3: R2P14

DL JERRY TILLERY

NOTRE DAME

4: R3P1

WR DEEBO SAMUEL

SOUTH CAROLINA

5: R4P11

 TE ZACH GENTRY

MICHIGAN

6: R4P29

RB DARRELL HENDERSON

MEMPHIS

7: R5P3

CB JUSTIN LAYNE

MICHIGAN STATE

8: R5P11

WR PARRIS CAMPBELL

OHIO STATE

Edited January 29, 2019 by Juice_32

[Dave Allen]

Harry will go 10-20. 31 teams will have him as a second-rounder, but there's going to be that one team... My money's on he Redskins or Raiders.