AlphaMock V1 - 4 round mock (pre combine)

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

I bet he does. And if he doesn’t, some team will be happy to get him where they did.

I think he's meh. Rather have that Samuel kid from SC.

[whatdrought]

44 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I never understood the mock stuff. It’s like playing the lotto. The odds are so insane of any of these things going down. 

I cant get into this stuff much until at least after the combine. Not that I put much stock in the combine but that’s when things start shaping up 

 

I won a mock competition on the old bills board!

[wppete]

Cody Ford, OT/G - Oklahoma will not be there in the 2nd round. No way. He is a beast! 

 

Not crazy about that mock. Ximines looked outclassed at the Senoir Bowl practices and game. 

 

I would like to see a trade down from

#9 to #15 pick up an additional 2nd round pick. 

 

1st Round: Jonah Williams, OT - Alabama 

2nd Round: Chris Lindstrom, G - Boston College 

2nd Round: Hakeem Butler, WR - Iowa State

3rd Round: Isaiah Buggs, DT - Alabama

4th Round: DaMarkus Lodge, WR - Ole Miss

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

The ODU kid is definitely an interesting prospect if we trade down and go offense early. 

Yes, I love Ximines....my main worry is that he may not be under the radar enough come draft time to fall to us in the 3rd.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

 

25 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

There's no way a team trades mid 2nds and 3rds to move from 15 to 9.  While I'm not a firm believer in the value chart, 15 to 9 should only get a low 2nd rounder.  Giving every benefit of the doubt, they could get a mid 2nd to go up those 6 spots, but adding the 3rd is just way over the top.

 

I get what you are saying, but according to the "value chart" we way over paid too last year.  Washington NEEDS to get ahead of two likely teams picking between 10 and 14 that look like they may go QB.  And that is Denver at 10 and Miami at 13.  Just like the Bills NEEDED to get ahead of Arizona last year if we wanted Josh Allen and "over paid" according to the draft chart.  

 

So I really do think its reasonable that we could get both a 2nd and a 3rd out of Washington.  If someone like Denver or Miami wants to move up to our spot to block the others out, maybe we dont get the extra 3rd.  But Washington is trading up 6 spots for a QB and needs to get in front of 2 other teams who could very well also go QB.  That makes our spot a premium price, and for that, paying a couple hundred more points than the draft value chart is not only reasonable, but IMO likely.  

 

Furthermore, Washington owes Alex Smith a lot of money for 3 more years, they really need to look at the draft for a QB because they aren't going to want to pay for one of the better FA options this year while also paying Smith.  

 

Now if there was no real threat of someone taking a QB between us and them, we would have less leverage and I would think a 2nd is about right.  We also have 10 draft picks, we dont HAVE to trade down, so Washington is going to need to entice us IMO and Beane is also a trading witch.  Same guy who got Cleveland to give us the first pick in the 3rd round for a QB despite these facts:

 

- Cleveland was taking QB in the first 4 picks.

- Buffalo was going to draft a QB and likely cut Tyrod.  

- Most of the posters on this board thought he wouldnt fetch anything better than a 6th round pick or worse.  

 

So I think the starts have aligned for us in a perfect trade down scenario with Washington to get above average value.

[RPbillsfan]

1 hour ago, freddyjj said:

Like the names but order messed up.  Don't  see Harry or TE in Rd 1.  My guess is they move back to 15 and take Risner or Ford.  Then use 2 seconds on WR and TE.  

I think it will be Risner at 15 also, then WR Butler in the 2nd

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, RPbillsfan said:

I think it will be Risner at 15 also, then WR Butler in the 2nd

 

I toyed with this exact scenario to be honest.   I had one version where I had us taking Risner at 15, trading up for T.J. then taking Butler in the 2nd.  

 

What stopped me, was 2 things.  I didn't want to over value the senior bowl and move Risner too far up before the combine.  Want to see more from him before I move him top 15 even though I do think he is looking like a potential first round pick fresh off all this buzz.  And secondly, with Josh being so young and the OL being so bad, I have a feeling OL is going to be a spot we are most active in Free Agency on.  There are not a lot of exciting offensive playmakers in Free Agency this year IMO, so I feel like they are going to carry higher grades and more weight on Beanes board come draft time.  

 

Its hard to do one this early before Free Agency and Combine, so many variables.  But had to start somewhere

[PIZ]

I'm always disappointed when I see guys I want to see the Bills get, go to them in a mock.  The mocks are always wrong, so it makes me realize the Bills will be going in a different direction. 

 

I like that your picks filled some  needs.  I don't know much about Harry, but I like Hockenstein.  

 

My wish would be Hockenstein, Risner Lindstrom, Bradberry, a RB, and a few WRs.  I know that won't happen.

 

I'm really starting to like the OL guys in the draft.

 

 

[NewEra]

Last year the cardinals traded up about the same number of picks and only gave up a 3rd.  If we trade down 6 spots we’d be lucky to get a 2nd and 3rd.  I’d be happy with a 2nd.

 

Id be very happy with the first 3 picks although I can’t see Hockenson and Ford lasting.  I like your choice of players though 

Edited January 29, 2019 by NewEra

[Buffalo Junction]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This is my mock right now, before the combine, post Senior Bowl.  Let me know what ya think   I will try and update a V2 after the combine, and then a final V3 just before the draft.  I am only mocking the Bills...and only to round 4 as everything from that point on is even more impossible to predict.

 

Current picks:  10 total.  1, 2, 3, 4, 4 (KC), 5 (OAK), 5, 6, 7, 7 (Car)

 

I have 2 first round trades involving the Bills...one trade down, then one trade up.  I think we are likely going to be trading down with Redskins picking up 2 additional picks.  Hard to see Beane drafting 12 players (our current 10, plus the 2 he picks up in the trade down) so I think he will package some of the picks to get another top end prospect in round 1 or 2.   

 

FIRST ROUND: (2 PICKS via Trade)

Trade down with Redskins.  Bills receive Redskins 15th pick, 2nd round pick and 3rd round pick

#15 Overall:  BILLS DRAFT:  N'Keal Harry - WR, Arizona State

 

SECOND TRADE ALERT:  Bills trade back into the first round.

Bills trade up to 27 with Oak (via Chicago):  Bills send their own 2nd round pick and the 3rd round pick the received from Washington to Oak.  Oak looking at a massive rebuild adds another quality pick in a small trade down.   

#27 Overall:  BILLS DRAFT:  T.J. Hockenson - TE, IOWA

 

SECOND ROUND:

Pick via Redskins trade:

BILLS DRAFT:  Cody Ford - OT/G, Oklahoma 

NOTE:  I previously had Dalton Risner here, however he seems to be rising into potentially the first round.  I want to mock Risner, but I think he goes early and that causes Ford to slide a further down to us.  

 

THIRD ROUND:

Our original pick.

BILLS DRAFT:  Oshane Ximines - EDGE, Old Dominion

 

FOURTH ROUND: (2 PICKS)

Our original pick.

BILLS DRAFT:  Olisaemeka Udoh - OT, ELON

 

Pick via KC 

BILLS DRAFT:  Darrell Henderson - RB, Memphis

 

BELOW:  Highlight reels of the NON Offensive Line prospects as they dont really have good reels to view being OL and one being a small school.

 

 

 

 

 

Udoh is an interesting pick. I’m not sure he goes that high, but it’s difficult to project small school guys pre-combine. That said, Udoh’s technique needs work, particularly balance and hand fighting. He has the physical talent, and Elon is a Christian school so he probably fits the character mold. 

[MJS]

I'd be happy with Harry. I like him a lot.

3 hours ago, TigerJ said:

I've read that while Harry can make highlight real catches, fights for the ball to make 50/50 catches and has excellent run after the catch ability, he really doesn't gain separation downfield.  His highlight video showed all of that in living color.  the only passes on which he had separation were short catches where the DB was playing soft.  Hockenson actually gained more separation, though that might have been because he's a tight end and is not always covered by a CB.  I think Hockenson will be a good one.  Ximines might be a great edge rusher, but I didn't like the way his highlight video was done.  It showed the end result, but not how he came off the line and beat the blocker.  That's what I really want to see.  Again, he's got to be doing something right to be as disruptive as he is.  I'd just like to see the plays from start to finish.  Henderson also looks like a good one.  Ford is well regarded and Udoh showed well inb the Senior Bowl.

 

Watch his film again and you'll notice that Harry is routinely underthrown. He is waiting or coming back for the ball on almost every catch. His QB just threw the ball as high in the air as he could in random directions and knew that Harry would go get it.

 

I think he's the real deal and will be a beast. Hope we get him.

[Albany,n.y.]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

I get what you are saying, but according to the "value chart" we way over paid too last year.  Washington NEEDS to get ahead of two likely teams picking between 10 and 14 that look like they may go QB.  And that is Denver at 10 and Miami at 13.  Just like the Bills NEEDED to get ahead of Arizona last year if we wanted Josh Allen and "over paid" according to the draft chart.  

 

So I really do think its reasonable that we could get both a 2nd and a 3rd out of Washington.  If someone like Denver or Miami wants to move up to our spot to block the others out, maybe we dont get the extra 3rd.  But Washington is trading up 6 spots for a QB and needs to get in front of 2 other teams who could very well also go QB.  That makes our spot a premium price, and for that, paying a couple hundred more points than the draft value chart is not only reasonable, but IMO likely.  

 

Furthermore, Washington owes Alex Smith a lot of money for 3 more years, they really need to look at the draft for a QB because they aren't going to want to pay for one of the better FA options this year while also paying Smith.  

 

Now if there was no real threat of someone taking a QB between us and them, we would have less leverage and I would think a 2nd is about right.  We also have 10 draft picks, we dont HAVE to trade down, so Washington is going to need to entice us IMO and Beane is also a trading witch.  Same guy who got Cleveland to give us the first pick in the 3rd round for a QB despite these facts:

 

- Cleveland was taking QB in the first 4 picks.

- Buffalo was going to draft a QB and likely cut Tyrod.  

- Most of the posters on this board thought he wouldnt fetch anything better than a 6th round pick or worse.  

 

So I think the starts have aligned for us in a perfect trade down scenario with Washington to get above average value.

Take a look at what Arizona have up to move from 15 to 10 last year- a 3rd and a 5th, for a guy who was rated higher than any QB who will be there at 9 this year.   The Bills had Allen rated very high, as they were trying to trade up to 5.  The Redskins aren't going to draft a rookie for one year if the medical reports say Smith has a future left. 35 is the new 30 these days for QBs.  They would have to be sure the guy could start from day one.  It's not 2018 or 2017 for rookie QBs.  At 9 they're getting a question mark at best.  More likely a Locker/Ponder than a Mahomes or a Watson.  You know who is most likely to be the Redskins QB next year?  If I had to guess, I'd say Tyrod.  He's going to come pretty cheap with incentives similar to his 1st Bills contract and if Smith is ready for 2020 Tyrod is a much better option than multiple picks on a rookie.  Remember something else, Gruden has to win this year or he will most likely be fired.  I doubt he wants to go through rookie growing pains with a guy who falls to 9.

[BruceVilanch]

3 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Take a look at what Arizona have up to move from 15 to 10 last year- a 3rd and a 5th, for a guy who was rated higher than any QB who will be there at 9 this year.   The Bills had Allen rated very high, as they were trying to trade up to 5.  The Redskins aren't going to draft a rookie for one year if the medical reports say Smith has a future left. 35 is the new 30 these days for QBs.  They would have to be sure the guy could start from day one.  It's not 2018 or 2017 for rookie QBs.  At 9 they're getting a question mark at best.  More likely a Locker/Ponder than a Mahomes or a Watson.  You know who is most likely to be the Redskins QB next year?  If I had to guess, I'd say Tyrod.  He's going to come pretty cheap with incentives similar to his 1st Bills contract and if Smith is ready for 2020 Tyrod is a much better option than multiple picks on a rookie.  Remember something else, Gruden has to win this year or he will most likely be fired.  I doubt he wants to go through rookie growing pains with a guy who falls to 9.

I think Gruden has a minimum two years left. They hired him knowing it was a long rebuild and they committed 10 years to him, I can't see the raiders letting him blow the team up and leave it in shambles and leave. (although it is the raiders so who knows)

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Take a look at what Arizona have up to move from 15 to 10 last year- a 3rd and a 5th, for a guy who was rated higher than any QB who will be there at 9 this year.   The Bills had Allen rated very high, as they were trying to trade up to 5.  The Redskins aren't going to draft a rookie for one year if the medical reports say Smith has a future left. 35 is the new 30 these days for QBs.  They would have to be sure the guy could start from day one.  It's not 2018 or 2017 for rookie QBs.  At 9 they're getting a question mark at best.  More likely a Locker/Ponder than a Mahomes or a Watson.  You know who is most likely to be the Redskins QB next year?  If I had to guess, I'd say Tyrod.  He's going to come pretty cheap with incentives similar to his 1st Bills contract and if Smith is ready for 2020 Tyrod is a much better option than multiple picks on a rookie.  Remember something else, Gruden has to win this year or he will most likely be fired.  I doubt he wants to go through rookie growing pains with a guy who falls to 9.

 

I do agree Tyrod could be a Redskin this year, makes sense for TT too if the Redskins don’t draft a guy.  But let’s also remember this is Alex Smith not Aaron Rodgers we are taking about here.  He wasn’t lighting it up before he got hurt averaging just 1 TD per game.  He’s gonna be mid 30’s coming off missing a year and a half of football, if he can even play again which is still in question.  Redskins are gonna likely make a play for a QB this year in the draft IMO. 

 

But you over look something in your example of last year.  Bills had to leap frog AZ to get Allen...we paid 2 seconds, an over pay by value chart.  But we paid it because we had to in order to get the QB they coveted.  If a guy Wash covets at QB is there at 9, they will pay the premium too which is cheaper than what we paid last year to move up only 5 spots to get Allen.

 

So again, I think you are under estimating what we can get.  Bears gave up a bounty to go up 1 spot to get Trubisky.  Teams over pay to ensure they get the QB they want all the time and by a lot more than a couple hundred value points that we are talking about here.  

 

Not guaranteeing we get more than a second, but I think it’s very possible in this scenario.   All good, we shall find out soon enough

Edited January 29, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Albany,n.y.]

10 minutes ago, Jeetz1231 said:

I think Gruden has a minimum two years left. They hired him knowing it was a long rebuild and they committed 10 years to him, I can't see the raiders letting him blow the team up and leave it in shambles and leave. (although it is the raiders so who knows)

Washington Jay not Raiders John.  

[Thurman#1]

Cody Ford in the 2nd? Jeez, I really doubt he falls out of the 1st.

 

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

I get what you are saying, but according to the "value chart" we way over paid too last year.  Washington NEEDS to get ahead of two likely teams picking between 10 and 14 that look like they may go QB.  And that is Denver at 10 and Miami at 13.  Just like the Bills NEEDED to get ahead of Arizona last year if we wanted Josh Allen and "over paid" according to the draft chart.  

 

So I really do think its reasonable that we could get both a 2nd and a 3rd out of Washington.  If someone like Denver or Miami wants to move up to our spot to block the others out, maybe we dont get the extra 3rd.  But Washington is trading up 6 spots for a QB and needs to get in front of 2 other teams who could very well also go QB.  That makes our spot a premium price, and for that, paying a couple hundred more points than the draft value chart is not only reasonable, but IMO likely.  

 

Furthermore, Washington owes Alex Smith a lot of money for 3 more years, they really need to look at the draft for a QB because they aren't going to want to pay for one of the better FA options this year while also paying Smith.  

 

Now if there was no real threat of someone taking a QB between us and them, we would have less leverage and I would think a 2nd is about right.  We also have 10 draft picks, we dont HAVE to trade down, so Washington is going to need to entice us IMO and Beane is also a trading witch.  Same guy who got Cleveland to give us the first pick in the 3rd round for a QB despite these facts:

 

- Cleveland was taking QB in the first 4 picks.

- Buffalo was going to draft a QB and likely cut Tyrod.  

- Most of the posters on this board thought he wouldnt fetch anything better than a 6th round pick or worse.  

 

So I think the starts have aligned for us in a perfect trade down scenario with Washington to get above average value.

 

 

I hear you. But IMHO you're arguing for what you want rather than what is likely.

 

And yeah, Cleveland was going to try to get Kizer or someone, but when you pick a QB in the 2nd you don't want to start him early. Your need for a decent FA starter to make your new GM look good is increased not decreased. Not to mention that Cleveland last year had three 1sts, a 2nd, two 3rds, a 4th, a 5th, a 6th and two 7ths. They were swimming in picks and had an extra first and an extra 2nd in the next year as well.

 

Washington hasn't got anywhere near the volume of picks that Cleveland did when they made that trade. They've got four comp picks, a 3rd, a 5th, and two 6ths. That's not nothing but not nearly the bounty that Cleveland ended up with.

 

Also you keep saying we moved up five spots last year, but it was a higher, more valuable five spots. We jumped up 300 points while they would only have to go 250. And as AlbanyN.Y. pointed out above, we didn't have an Alex Smith last year. Washington does have one coming back probably in 2020. We were rebuilding and looking long-term in a QB-rich year. They are not rebuilding, they're looking short-term in a year that's not great for QBs.

 

Hey, I hope you're right. But I wouldn't bet $10 on it, much less the rent.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Thurman#1

[BruceVilanch]

30 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Washington Jay not Raiders John.  

oh, Duh, thanks for the clarification.

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Cody Ford in the 2nd? Jeez, I really doubt he falls out of the 1st.

 

 

 

I hear you. But IMHO you're arguing for what you want rather than what is likely.

 

And yeah, Cleveland was going to try to get Kizer or someone, but when you pick a QB in the 2nd you don't want to start him early. Your need for a decent FA starter to make your new GM look good is increased not decreased. Not to mention that Cleveland last year had three 1sts, a 2nd, two 3rds, a 4th, a 5th, a 6th and two 7ths. They were swimming in picks and had an extra first and an extra 2nd in the next year as well.

 

Washington hasn't got anywhere near the volume of picks that Cleveland did when they made that trade. They've got four comp picks, a 3rd, a 5th, and two 6ths. That's not nothing but not nearly the bounty that Cleveland ended up with.

 

Also you keep saying we moved up five spots last year, but it was a higher, more valuable five spots. We jumped up 300 points while they would only have to go 250. And as AlbanyN.Y. pointed out above, we didn't have an Alex Smith last year. Washington does have one coming back probably in 2020. We were rebuilding and looking long-term in a QB-rich year. They are not rebuilding, they're looking short-term in a year that's not great for QBs.

 

Hey, I hope you're right. But I wouldn't bet $10 on it, much less the rent.

 

 

 

I certainly could be wrong and you and Albany make fairpoints.    

 

Last year though I was one of the few that said Giants and Denver were definitely not taking a QB and everyone kept telling me no way on that too.  I think people are over valuing Smith in Washington who was under performing when he got hurt.

 

Cowboys and Eagles already got a young QB and nucleus.  Giants got Saquan and OBJ and will likely draft a young QB this year.  Redskins have very little to be optimistic offensively about when Smith comes back and he’s a solid QB but not someone to build around.  He was always supposed to be a stop gap to try and win now, but now his career is very much in doubt as they don’t know if he will ever play again right now.

 

So looking up and down that division, Washington is going to start falling way behind if they just sit around and wait for Alex to come back, who will then be almost 2 years removed from football in his mid 30’s coming off a gruesome injury.  Add in that he’s not exactly a guy to carry a roster and it’s even less appealing of a scenario.  

 

So I am just in the camp they will make a move this year for a QB.  This way if they miss on who they take this year, Alex potentially is back in 2020 where they could look to draft another QB in 2020 or 2021 who at that point could groom behind Smith too a year.  

 

Hopefully I am right though as be nice to get the 2 picks.  And don’t get me wrong, I’m still all for the trade down even if we get just the 2nd.  But I do think the opportunity to get more than a 2nd is there and Beane is a witch

Edited January 29, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Last year though I was one of the few that said Giants and Denver were definitely not taking a QB and everyone kept telling me no way on that too.  I think people are over valuing Smith in Washington who was under performing when he got hurt.

 

I was right with you there. I though both should take Quarterbacks but said all along the Giants were not and they wanted to take Barkley or someone to pay them a huge bounty for #2. Denver wasn't taking a QB because Elway is scared to miss again (and I wouldn't be certain they take one in the 1st this year either - could very much see them waiting until the 2nd or 3rd).

 

Washington does need a Quarterback and is very cap challenged. That leads me to think they might lean towards drafting one.... but it is just not a good class. If Kyler Murray measures, as some expect him to, 5'9 or 5'10 then for me the top of the draft is a 1 man class and if I was Washington then my choices would be twofold:

 

1. Get ahead of the Giants and take Dwayne Haskins;

2. Don't trade up for a 1st round QB and maybe trade back from #15 and take Lock or Jones later.

 

For the trade with Washington to be "in play" I think the Bills need two things to happen. 1 - they need Kyler Murray to measure 5'11 or taller. 2 - the need the Jags to go the veteran QB route (which I think they will). Otherwise I just don't think that trade makes sense for Washington.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I hate grouping school together but I think Oklahoma has a high track record of success for nfl olinemen.  Brown had a terrible combine last year and became a starter as a rookie on a playoff team.

 

He should have been a first round pick, his game tape was 1st round pick quality. I still had him as a 1st round pick on my board and I steadfastly refused to change it because he underperformed running around some cones and doing gym reps in shorts. That he fell to the third round is laughable.