AlphaMock V1 - 4 round mock (pre combine)

[Alphadawg7]

This is my mock right now, before the combine, post Senior Bowl.  Let me know what ya think   I will try and update a V2 after the combine, and then a final V3 just before the draft.  I am only mocking the Bills...and only to round 4 as everything from that point on is even more impossible to predict.

 

Current picks:  10 total.  1, 2, 3, 4, 4 (KC), 5 (OAK), 5, 6, 7, 7 (Car)

 

I have 2 first round trades involving the Bills...one trade down, then one trade up.  I think we are likely going to be trading down with Redskins picking up 2 additional picks.  Hard to see Beane drafting 12 players (our current 10, plus the 2 he picks up in the trade down) so I think he will package some of the picks to get another top end prospect in round 1 or 2.   

 

FIRST ROUND: (2 PICKS via Trade)

Trade down with Redskins.  Bills receive Redskins 15th pick, 2nd round pick and 3rd round pick

#15 Overall:  BILLS DRAFT:  N'Keal Harry - WR, Arizona State

 

SECOND TRADE ALERT:  Bills trade back into the first round.

Bills trade up to 27 with Oak (via Chicago):  Bills send their own 2nd round pick and the 3rd round pick the received from Washington to Oak.  Oak looking at a massive rebuild adds another quality pick in a small trade down.   

#27 Overall:  BILLS DRAFT:  T.J. Hockenson - TE, IOWA

 

SECOND ROUND:

Pick via Redskins trade:

BILLS DRAFT:  Cody Ford - OT/G, Oklahoma 

NOTE:  I previously had Dalton Risner here, however he seems to be rising into potentially the first round.  I want to mock Risner, but I think he goes early and that causes Ford to slide a further down to us.  

 

THIRD ROUND:

Our original pick.

BILLS DRAFT:  Oshane Ximines - EDGE, Old Dominion

 

FOURTH ROUND: (2 PICKS)

Our original pick.

BILLS DRAFT:  Olisaemeka Udoh - OT, ELON

 

Pick via KC 

BILLS DRAFT:  Darrell Henderson - RB, Memphis

 

BELOW:  Highlight reels of the NON Offensive Line prospects as they dont really have good reels to view being OL and one being a small school.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[CaptnCoke11]

Harry isn’t going in the first round let alone the top half of it. 

[Teddy KGB]

Hockenson might be gone by then. 

 

Nice deep dive on the ODU kid. 

 

Huge yes to Harry ??????

[C.Biscuit97]

Love the first 2 picks and don’t know anything about the other two.  I don’t think there’s anyway Ford lasts until the 2nd.  He will go in the first on name alone.  And I think Harry is a flat out stud and was held back by a bad qb.  Really like Hakeem Butler as well.

[Rc2catch]

I never understood the mock stuff. It’s like playing the lotto. The odds are so insane of any of these things going down. 

I cant get into this stuff much until at least after the combine. Not that I put much stock in the combine but that’s when things start shaping up 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Harry isn’t going in the first round let alone the top half of it. 

 

Yes, this is pre combine version, and the WR's are all grouped together in the top 7 so someone mocked early could easily fall to the 2nd, and vice versa.  I honestly believe there are 7 WR's who all have a shot at being first WR drafted before we go to the combine.  I went with Harry now because I think he is fast enough, and he has just an insane catch radius and is a big strong guy who can go get those Josh Allen passes.  

[LSHMEAB]

The ODU kid is definitely an interesting prospect if we trade down and go offense early. 

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Harry isn’t going in the first round let alone the top half of it. 

I’d take that bet.  I definitely think he’s going in the 1st.  He’s a stud and his qb was garbage.

[KOKBILLS]

I like the picks...And I'm not trying to nitpick...It's early...

 

But no lie Ledyard and Sikkema are Mocking Ford in the Top 10...

 

In the last 4 updated Big Boards on The Draft Network Ford is rated between 10-14 Overall...?

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

Hockenson might be gone by then. 

 

Nice deep dive on the ODU kid. 

 

Huge yes to Harry ??????

 

Yeah he could be, and I can also see us trading up higher than 27.  If we trade down, we likely have 12 picks and I doubt Beane will sit on them.  So we could move a little higher to get Hockenson too, but I like the Raiders being open for business on a trade down.  We could also take the other Iowa TE there in Fant too if Hockenson is gone, or target OL there too.  

 

I just think they want some veteran help on OL out of FA too to quickly stabilize the line, so I think another playmaker would be a likely target in a trade up.

[freddyjj]

Like the names but order messed up.  Don't  see Harry or TE in Rd 1.  My guess is they move back to 15 and take Risner or Ford.  Then use 2 seconds on WR and TE.  

Edited January 29, 2019 by freddyjj

[TigerJ]

I've read that while Harry can make highlight real catches, fights for the ball to make 50/50 catches and has excellent run after the catch ability, he really doesn't gain separation downfield.  His highlight video showed all of that in living color.  the only passes on which he had separation were short catches where the DB was playing soft.  Hockenson actually gained more separation, though that might have been because he's a tight end and is not always covered by a CB.  I think Hockenson will be a good one.  Ximines might be a great edge rusher, but I didn't like the way his highlight video was done.  It showed the end result, but not how he came off the line and beat the blocker.  That's what I really want to see.  Again, he's got to be doing something right to be as disruptive as he is.  I'd just like to see the plays from start to finish.  Henderson also looks like a good one.  Ford is well regarded and Udoh showed well inb the Senior Bowl.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Love the first 2 picks and don’t know anything about the other two.  I don’t think there’s anyway Ford lasts until the 2nd.  He will go in the first on name alone.  And I think Harry is a flat out stud and was held back by a bad qb.  Really like Hakeem Butler as well.

 

Ford was a tough one for me as I had him originally going in the bottom of the first and us taking Risner in the 2nd.  The only reason I went Ford is because the other 2 guys I liked there are buzzing hard after the Senior Bowl and might push him down as they rise up.  And that was Risner like I said and Dillard.  Honestly, there are a few guys who could fall here, but went Cody for now as some of the other guys have some fresh buzz to be rising up.

[KOKBILLS]

Just now, freddyjj said:

Like the names but order messed up.  Don't  see Harry or TE in Rd 1.  My guess is they move back to 15 and take Risner or Ford.  Then use 2 seconds on WE and TE.  

 

Agreed...

 

My guess is those two will be big time targets...

 

Honestly, as early as it is, I think it's even money that one from Risner, Ford, Jonah Williams, and D.K Metcalf will be the Bills 1st pick April 25th...We'll see if the Combine changes my mind much...?

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ford was a tough one for me as I had him originally going in the bottom of the first and us taking Risner in the 2nd.  The only reason I went Ford is because the other 2 guys I liked there are buzzing hard after the Senior Bowl and might push him down as they rise up.  And that was Risner like I said and Dillard.  Honestly, there are a few guys who could fall here, but went Cody for now as some of the other guys have some fresh buzz to be rising up.

I hate grouping school together but I think Oklahoma has a high track record of success for nfl olinemen.  Brown had a terrible combine last year and became a starter as a rookie on a playoff team.

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

I like the picks...And I'm not trying to nitpick...It's early...

 

But no lie Ledyard and Sikkema are Mocking Ford in the Top 10...

 

In the last 4 updated Big Boards on The Draft Network Ford is rated between 10-14 Overall...?

 

All good, and as I mentioned earlier he was the toughest one for me to mock there.  Only moved him down because I think he better projects as a guard and there will be some tackles that leap from him like Risner and Dillard come draft time.  Combine I am sure will start really sorting out the OL group more, as a whole its pretty all over the map along with WR this year.

8 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Like the names but order messed up.  Don't  see Harry or TE in Rd 1.  My guess is they move back to 15 and take Risner or Ford.  Then use 2 seconds on WR and TE.  

 

I can certainly see that happening too, especially Risner who seems like a perfect mutual fit.  I also did this mock under the assumption we did some FA work on the OL already heading into the draft.  I feel like they want some veteran help to on the line for Josh.

 

This is why its V1 right now because I want to see how some of these guys do at the combine.  I dont want to over react though on Risner off just the Senior Bowl, so I want to see him at combine before I feel like he can be a top 15 pick.  

[Jay_Fixit]

24 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Harry isn’t going in the first round let alone the top half of it. 

I bet he does. And if he doesn’t, some team will be happy to get him where they did.

[KOKBILLS]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

All good, and as I mentioned earlier he was the toughest one for me to mock there.  Only moved him down because I think he better projects as a guard and there will be some tackles that leap from him like Risner and Dillard come draft time.  Combine I am sure will start really sorting out the OL group more, as a whole its pretty all over the map along with WR this year.

 

I think you're right about the OG part...Though I'm sure they'll try him at RT first...

 

I think Scouts see him as an absolute physical mauler...And he can move...So, with so many teams looking for that moving LG, I'm guessing it's not going to hurt him much..Like Nelson last year...

 

Can you tell I LOVE Cody Ford?...??

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

I think you're right about the OG part...Though I'm sure they'll try him at RT first...

 

I think Scouts see him as an absolute physical mauler...And he can move...So, with so many teams looking for that moving LG, I'm guessing it's not going to hurt him much..Like Nelson last year...

 

Can you tell I LOVE Cody Ford?...??

 

Hahaha, yeah I can tell.  There were 2 guys I struggled with mocking, and that was Cody and Taylor.  Mocks are all over the map on these two...both show up as one of the first OL off the board, if not the first and they both show up often in the 2nd round.  

 

I honestly dont really dive deeper into OL until the combine, so this was a combo of moving some other guys up from recent senior bowl buzz and also kind of a wish list for me that he slides because I love versatile OL guys who can move around the line and play at a high level.  

 

I could see one of either Cody, Taylor, Dillard, Risner, or even Little being on the board mid 2nd round still.  Every year there is always some OL that at this time of year seems like a first rounder that slides there as other players move around the board at all positions post combine.  I think the deep WR class is going to see a run at WR later first and early 2nd and push at least one of these guys down.  Hard to say today who it is though.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[Albany,n.y.]

There's no way a team trades mid 2nds and 3rds to move from 15 to 9.  While I'm not a firm believer in the value chart, 15 to 9 should only get a low 2nd rounder.  Giving every benefit of the doubt, they could get a mid 2nd to go up those 6 spots, but adding the 3rd is just way over the top.