Barnwell has Bills at 6 wins in 2019

[HomeskillitMoorman]

4 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

the over / under is 8 with today's roster based on how they exited the last quarter of the season; clearly it is 9 post-draft and FA as they are not losing anyone (other than Kyle) to FA this year who matters.  So its only gain in terms of next years roster vs the roster that performed well for the last 4 games.  

 

I'd go play next years schedule with the current roster and probably win 8 games.  The only thing that happened bad this year was they needed about 3 or 4 more games to play....

 

Trust the Process.   Barring serious injuries to irreplaceable players like QB or half your o line  (which trashes any teams season) , next year is going to be great. 

 

I don't think we're an 8 win team as it stands today. I think the 6.5 over/under is pretty fair with the current roster. The Bills certainly have an opportunity to plug their gaping holes with quality players but we'll see if they actually do it.

 

If anything, the Pats game at the end of the year showed how far we still have to go. They almost looked bored in that game and were in total control, especially dominating in the trenches on both sides. 

Edited January 29, 2019 by HomeskillitMoorman

[iinii]

3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Turnovers are fluky is the exact same thing that was said last offseason.  Teams with playmakers take the ball away consistantly.

And that is something we didn’t do well....

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

3-13 was a great prediction for last year considering who was starting the season at QB

 

 

Barnwell predicted 6.4 wins last year. On July 21st.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell

 

Just sayin'.

 

 

 

And again, for the apparent large majority who commented on an article without reading it ... the article this thread is about is NOT a prediction of next year's win total, only a guess of what the Vegas over-under will be when the opening lines come out, which will probably be well before the season.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Thurman#1

[Pete]

I take the over.  Easy money

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Barnwell predicted 6.4 wins last year. On July 21st.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell

 

Just sayin'.

 

 

 

And again, for the apparent large majority who commented on an article without reading it ... the article this thread is about is NOT a prediction of next year's win total, only a guess of what the Vegas over-under will be when the opening lines come out, which will probably be well before the season.

 

 

 

 

Predicting 6.4 wins in the NFL is the height of statistical pretentiousness. 

[MJS]

6 hours ago, PIZ said:

I would said that's a good prediction for 2018, but 2019 will be much better in my opinion.  Get the OL taken care of, add a few WRs, a RB, a DT, a CB, and a LB and they'll get 10 wins.  With FA and the draft, they should be in good shape in 2019.

 

 

Wow. That's a lot to get.

 

I fully expect some growing pains next year but believe we'll be an 8 or 9 win team. Still, we haven't had the draft or free agency yet. This team will look quite different by next preseason.

[The Senator]

 

19 and 0 baby!!!

 

GO  BILLSSS!!!! ??????

.

[MJS]

5 hours ago, Chemical said:

3-13 was a great prediction for last year considering who was starting the season at QB

 

It's pretty obvious that it wasn't. Anyone who thought the Bills were a 3 win team did not know a thing about the Bills (including silly Bills fans who predicted that).

 

The Bills were obviously going to regress, but with a good defense (and we all knew the defense would be better) predicting 6 or 7 wins made sense. Less than that didn't make sense at all.

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Barnwell predicted 6.4 wins last year. On July 21st.

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20114211/the-nfl-stats-matter-most-2017-offseason-bill-barnwell

 

Just sayin'.

 

 

 

And again, for the apparent large majority who commented on an article without reading it ... the article this thread is about is NOT a prediction of next year's win total, only a guess of what the Vegas over-under will be when the opening lines come out, which will probably be well before the season.

 

 

 

 

 

Yes it’s true he is predicting what Vegas will post as the O/U but his only source is his own opinion of the team right now.  His take may change in July but I bet if he was asked now, 6 wins or something close to it would be his answer.   Read his review of the Bills in the article.   Not very positive. 

[Albany,n.y.]

4 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If Josh Allen was on any other team, we would think he was a bad qb. 

Only if we were ignorant fans who never saw him play like some of the morons with internet sites from their mother's basement who look only at his stats and trash him.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Turnovers are fluky is the exact same thing that was said last offseason.  Teams with playmakers take the ball away consistantly.

20 minutes ago, iinii said:

And that is something we didn’t do well....

 

 

Tied for 8th in takeaways? That's doing it pretty well.

[Albany,n.y.]

6 hours ago, Chemical said:

 

3-13 was a great prediction for last year considering who was starting the season at QB

Only for someone without a clue.  Just about everyone who could read knew the schedule was backloaded with easier games in November and December when Peterman would be on the bench at best unless he had won some of the tougher games, making 3 wins a pretty stupid pick.

 

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Predicting 6.4 wins in the NFL is the height of statistical pretentiousness. 

 

 

No, it's just the result of a mathematical process rather than one based on feelings and pure guesswork.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

 

Yes it’s true he is predicting what Vegas will post as the O/U but his only source is his own opinion of the team right now.  His take may change in July but I bet if he was asked now, 6 wins or something close to it would be his answer.   Read his review of the Bills in the article.   Not very positive. 

 

 

He's not relying on his opinon of the team at all for those numbers, not one bit, in either article.

 

In the original article he's relying on his opinions of Vegas and how they predict bettors will act. In my article he goes through a bunch of statistical measures from last 2017 to predict 2018 outcomes, a method which he says has worked well for him in past years to predict the next year's results, and he was almost exactly on target, predicting 6.4 wins when actual results were 6.

 

And I don't blame him for being negative about last year's Bills. We weren't good. He says good things about the defense, very reasonably and expresses doubt about whether we'll be able to help Allen enough on offense in a year in which both draft and FA are a bit weak on the offensive side. Reasonable, especially when it's trying to figure how bettors and Vegas will see things well before the season.

 

Bet what you want, but don't act as if your guess about his future work is something you can reasonably comment on as far as it having anything to do with him. He might guess close to six nearer the season. But he might not.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Thurman#1

[nucci]

9 hours ago, BillsfaninSB said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25834281/predicting-2019-vegas-win-totals-unders-all-32-nfl-teams#buf

 

That would be very disappointing. 

It's January. How is this relevant?

[row_33]

3 hours ago, MJS said:

 

It's pretty obvious that it wasn't. Anyone who thought the Bills were a 3 win team did not know a thing about the Bills (including silly Bills fans who predicted that).

 

The Bills were obviously going to regress, but with a good defense (and we all knew the defense would be better) predicting 6 or 7 wins made sense. Less than that didn't make sense at all.

 

In reality three wins seemed very optimistic at early points in the  season.

 

easy to say now that you knew it would be such a triumphant compiling of all those wins..... ?

 

Bills were reduced to sending Derek ***** Anderson out there to take on the Pats.  And some people on here weren’t laughing.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by row_33

[formerlyofCtown]

5 hours ago, iinii said:

And that is something we didn’t do well....

I think we took it away plenty, we just gave it away to much.

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tied for 8th in takeaways? That's doing it pretty well.

Thanks For the assist.  I swear some of these people dont watch the games.

Edited January 29, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[fansince88]

7 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

If Josh Allen was on any other team, we would think he was a bad qb. 

Who is this we you speak of? You got a mouse in your pocket?

[Doc Brown]

Here's what he wrote last year around the same time   http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22146300/predicting-2018-vegas-win-totals-all-32-nfl-teams-unders-season

 

He wasn't too far off.

Buffalo Bills

Projected 2018 over/under: 7 wins

 

 

While the Bills shocked the world and made it to the playoffs at 9-7, their Pythagorean expectation was for a 6.4-win team, suggesting they're extremely likely to decline in 2018. If they decide to turn the quarterback position over to Nathan Peterman, seven wins might be a tall order. My best guess is that the Bills will use their two first-round picks to trade up and grab a passer; but unless the incoming signal-caller plays like a superstar and props up the rest of the team, Sean McDermott's squad might take a step backward before it takes a step forward.

[uticaclub]

If Allen takes a step forward we will be contenders no matter who the coach is or who we have around him. If Allen takes a step back, o/u 6 wins in accurate and we get a new coaching regime