shrader Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, K-9 said: Does Skinner still have a no movement clause? I think that may complicate potential trades if he does. I was glad he had a no trade clause with Carolina because they would have traded him to the Kings last summer instead of us. Apparently his NMC/NTC (forget which one he had) did carry over even after the deal. 7 minutes ago, K-9 said: More like a Cliff and Norm thing. I’ll leave it up to you to figure out who is wearing the milk bone underwear. I guess we'll stick with that because I was almost going to have to call you the Rebecca in that Sam/Diane comparison.
JohnC Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, K-9 said: Does Skinner still have a no movement clause? I think that may complicate potential trades if he does. I was glad he had a no trade clause with Carolina because they would have traded him to the Kings last summer instead of us. I did, which is why I asked the question. EDIT: I think you mean your last response to Plenz? I’m glad they are negotiating with Skinner, but that doesn’t preclude a potential trade of him. More like a Cliff and Norm thing. I’ll leave it up to you to figure out who is wearing the milk bone underwear. Skinner's current contract has a no-trade (limited designated teams) clause. On top of that the GM has repeatedly stressed that he wants his team to experience the stress of vying for a playoff spot. He also wants his Rochester players to have the same stress experience. Whether you believe the Sabres will make the playoffs or not they are still meaningfully competing for a wild-card spot. In addition, if Skinner was traded prior to the trade deadline in the midst of a playoff run what message are you sending to your team that you take winning seriously? How do you think that Jack would respond to such a critical player being dispatched? Anything is possible but I just don't see Skinner being traded unless the contract talks get out of hand. From what I heard the parties are engaged and the talks are substantive. So I would say a trade deal for Skinner is improbable.
K-9 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, JohnC said: Skinner's current contract has a no-trade (limited designated teams) clause. On top of that the GM has repeatedly stressed that he wants his team to experience the stress of vying for a playoff spot. He also wants his Rochester players to have the same stress experience. Whether you believe the Sabres will make the playoffs or not they are still meaningfully competing for a wild-card spot. In addition, if Skinner was traded prior to the trade deadline in the midst of a playoff run what message are you sending to your team that you take winning seriously? How do you think that Jack would respond to such a critical player being dispatched? Anything is possible but I just don't see Skinner being traded unless the contract talks get out of hand. From what I heard the parties are engaged and the talks are substantive. So I would say a trade deal for Skinner is improbable. I’m not advocating for a trade of Skinner. And I believe there is little chance of it happening. Just going through the scenario. But stranger things have happened. The kind of message trading Skinner sends about winning can be looked at in both the short and long term. In the short term, it says JBotts is realistic about this year’s chances and sees a great opportunity to add key pieces. In the long term, it says he is committed to continue to build a perennial winner. Kind of that “stay the course” model you advocate. Given your support for that kind of model, I’m surprised you aren’t more open to that idea. What kind of message about winning does giving Sobotka the forth most ice time send? I suspect everyone in that locker room knows there are several forwards who are better players and have earned more ice time so I wonder how much sense it makes to them.
K-9 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 35 minutes ago, shrader said: Apparently his NMC/NTC (forget which one he had) did carry over even after the deal. I guess we'll stick with that because I was almost going to have to call you the Rebecca in that Sam/Diane comparison. Beats being some anonymous extra from Gary’s Olde Towne Tavern.
shrader Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 41 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said: BTW, maybe Malkin gets 5? Has it been announced if in person or not? My quick search just found "hearing" I just watched this one. If he gets anything, I kind of hope Raffl gets half of that for the punch to the back of the head and the subsequent dive. What Malkin did needs to be stamped out of the game, but so does everything Raffl did there.
JohnC Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, K-9 said: I’m not advocating for a trade of Skinner. And I believe there is little chance of it happening. Just going through the scenario. But stranger things have happened. The kind of message trading Skinner sends about winning can be looked at in both the short and long term. In the short term, it says JBotts is realistic about this year’s chances and sees a great opportunity to add key pieces. In the long term, it says he is committed to continue to build a perennial winner. Kind of that “stay the course” model you advocate. Given your support for that kind of model, I’m surprised you aren’t more open to that idea. What kind of message about winning does giving Sobotka the forth most ice time send? I suspect everyone in that locker room knows there are several forwards who are better players and have earned more ice time so I wonder how much sense it makes to them. The problem with trading Skinner and getting assets in return is that the return wouldn't be as significant as one would think. Trading off a good player to another team as a rental will not get you much in return. The "stay the course" approach that you ascribe to me doesn't mean that if a deal makes sense you shouldn't make it. It just seems to me that dealing off Skinner when we are in a playoff battle (whether we make it or not) makes little sense especially when the return isn't very great. I really don't care too much about the Sobotka issue. . He is a veteran role player who is useful as a penalty killer and taking draws in the defensive end. At this stage in his fading career he is played for defensive reasons. If I had a say I would play CJ Smith more but I'm not going to be bothered by a fringe issue. A coach makes a lot of decisions. No one is going to agree with everything he does. Some decisions work out and some don't.
plenzmd1 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, shrader said: I just watched this one. If he gets anything, I kind of hope Raffl gets half of that for the punch to the back of the head and the subsequent dive. What Malkin did needs to be stamped out of the game, but so does everything Raffl did there. I think its 2 games for Malkin...maybe two games we need.
K-9 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, JohnC said: I really don't care too much about the Sobotka issue. . He is a veteran role player who is useful as a penalty killer and taking draws in the defensive end. At this stage in his fading career he is played for defensive reasons. If I had a say I would play CJ Smith more but I'm not going to be bothered by a fringe issue. A coach makes a lot of decisions. No one is going to agree with everything he does. Some decisions work out and some don't. Why am I not surprised? “Veteran role player”, “useful as a penalty killer”, “takes draws in the defensive end”, “fading career.” You described exactly what he is which is exactly why he is the LAST forward on the team to garner the most 5x5 ice time behind the top three. Yep, I gotta wonder how much credibility Housley has left in that room. 1
shrader Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, JohnC said: The problem with trading Skinner and getting assets in return is that the return wouldn't be as significant as one would think. Trading off a good player to another team as a rental will not get you much in return. The "stay the course" approach that you ascribe to me doesn't mean that if a deal makes sense you shouldn't make it. It just seems to me that dealing off Skinner when we are in a playoff battle (whether we make it or not) makes little sense especially when the return isn't very great. I really don't care too much about the Sobotka issue. . He is a veteran role player who is useful as a penalty killer and taking draws in the defensive end. At this stage in his fading career he is played for defensive reasons. If I had a say I would play CJ Smith more but I'm not going to be bothered by a fringe issue. A coach makes a lot of decisions. No one is going to agree with everything he does. Some decisions work out and some don't. I'm too lazy to dig through the history of deadline rental deals, or even to figure out how much of a timeline would be a relevant comparison to today's NHL. I do wonder though how often the #2 goal scorer in the league has been moved in a deadline rental situation. My gut feeling tells me that you're undervaluing the value of a trade. I fully expect them to hold onto him and sign an extension shortly after the deadline, but in this hypothetical world where they would trade him, I think you'd have a fairly competitive market for his services. That probably nets at least a pick and one/two NHL ready prospects.
BillsFan4 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Posted February 12, 2019 Let’s not blow this Sobotka thing out of proportion guys. Sobotka gets 2 seconds more per game than the next closest forward (Sheary), about 15 seconds more than the next 2 closest forwards (ERod and Larsson) and about 30 seconds more than the next cluster of players. There is only 1:10 ice time per game that separate Sobotka from the guy who gets the least amount of regular ice time on the team. He is 13th in total 5v5 ice time on the team. And it'd worth mentuoning that Sobotka is under his career average ice time by quite a bit. He averaged 16-17mins almost every year in St. Louis. Even under Hitchcock (a very well respected veteran coach). I mean, what do you expect housley to do? ROR was the guy housley relied on to eat all those defensive minutes and he was traded away and replaced with Sobotka and Thompson. Do you consider that an adequate job by Botterill (for this season) to fill that massive hole ROR left? How many head cosches rely on young and/or rookie players to play heavy defensive roles? It’s really not unusual to see a coach rely on a veteran player in a defensive role. And especially in this case, where housley really doesn’t have another veteran defensive forward to rely on. I can almost guarantee that if housley had someone better to fill that role, he’d use them.
snafu Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 36 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Let’s not blow this Sobotka thing out of proportion guys. Sobotka gets 2 seconds more per game than the next closest forward (Sheary), about 15 seconds more than the next 2 closest forwards (ERod and Larsson) and about 30 seconds more than the next cluster of players. There is only 1:10 ice time per game that separate Sobotka from the guy who gets the least amount of regular ice time on the team. He is 13th in total 5v5 ice time on the team. And it'd worth mentuoning that Sobotka is under his career average ice time by quite a bit. He averaged 16-17mins almost every year in St. Louis. Even under Hitchcock (a very well respected veteran coach). I mean, what do you expect housley to do? ROR was the guy housley relied on to eat all those defensive minutes and he was traded away and replaced with Sobotka and Thompson. Do you consider that an adequate job by Botterill (for this season) to fill that massive hole ROR left? How many head cosches rely on young and/or rookie players to play heavy defensive roles? It’s really not unusual to see a coach rely on a veteran player in a defensive role. And especially in this case, where housley really doesn’t have another veteran defensive forward to rely on. I can almost guarantee that if housley had someone better to fill that role, he’d use them. Please stop with your healthy dose of reality! 2 1
JohnC Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, shrader said: I'm too lazy to dig through the history of deadline rental deals, or even to figure out how much of a timeline would be a relevant comparison to today's NHL. I do wonder though how often the #2 goal scorer in the league has been moved in a deadline rental situation. My gut feeling tells me that you're undervaluing the value of a trade. I fully expect them to hold onto him and sign an extension shortly after the deadline, but in this hypothetical world where they would trade him, I think you'd have a fairly competitive market for his services. That probably nets at least a pick and one/two NHL ready prospects. The hypothetical world usually doesn't translate to the real world. It may be useful and entertaining for the talk shows and blog world but considering our situation and his situation I see a deal happening. Anything can happen so I wouldn't be foolish to guarantee any outcome. For the sake of offering a hypothetical if a deal isn't worked out then the Sabres would move on and use his cap space for another good player.
JohnC Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, BillsFan4 said: Let’s not blow this Sobotka thing out of proportion guys. Sobotka gets 2 seconds more per game than the next closest forward (Sheary), about 15 seconds more than the next 2 closest forwards (ERod and Larsson) and about 30 seconds more than the next cluster of players. There is only 1:10 ice time per game that separate Sobotka from the guy who gets the least amount of regular ice time on the team. He is 13th in total 5v5 ice time on the team. And it'd worth mentuoning that Sobotka is under his career average ice time by quite a bit. He averaged 16-17mins almost every year in St. Louis. Even under Hitchcock (a very well respected veteran coach). I mean, what do you expect housley to do? ROR was the guy housley relied on to eat all those defensive minutes and he was traded away and replaced with Sobotka and Thompson. Do you consider that an adequate job by Botterill (for this season) to fill that massive hole ROR left? How many head cosches rely on young and/or rookie players to play heavy defensive roles? It’s really not unusual to see a coach rely on a veteran player in a defensive role. And especially in this case, where housley really doesn’t have another veteran defensive forward to rely on. I can almost guarantee that if housley had someone better to fill that role, he’d use them. You are meticulous in your research. Some people are too determined to chase the bogeyman instead of looking at the facts and context. I salute you for your stellar research on this and other issues. ? 1
BillsFan4 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Posted February 12, 2019 Ullmark starting in net tonight and Mittelstadt will be a game time decision. He left the morning skate with some type of lower body injury.
plenzmd1 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: Ullmark starting in net tonight and Mittelstadt will be a game time decision. He left the morning skate with some type of lower body injury. almost time to pregame...big game tonight. Not holding out much hope for a win,, but damn the Islanders have to slow down sometime no? 1
K-9 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, JohnC said: You are meticulous in your research. Some people are too determined to chase the bogeyman instead of looking at the facts and context. I salute you for your stellar research on this and other issues. ? No chase of the bogeyman required. Housley has been delivering a healthy dose of ineptitude for all to see since he got here so we can just sit back and let it come to us as we watch.
K-9 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 3 hours ago, BillsFan4 said: Let’s not blow this Sobotka thing out of proportion guys. Sobotka gets 2 seconds more per game than the next closest forward (Sheary), about 15 seconds more than the next 2 closest forwards (ERod and Larsson) and about 30 seconds more than the next cluster of players. There is only 1:10 ice time per game that separate Sobotka from the guy who gets the least amount of regular ice time on the team. He is 13th in total 5v5 ice time on the team. And it'd worth mentuoning that Sobotka is under his career average ice time by quite a bit. He averaged 16-17mins almost every year in St. Louis. Even under Hitchcock (a very well respected veteran coach). I mean, what do you expect housley to do? ROR was the guy housley relied on to eat all those defensive minutes and he was traded away and replaced with Sobotka and Thompson. Do you consider that an adequate job by Botterill (for this season) to fill that massive hole ROR left? How many head cosches rely on young and/or rookie players to play heavy defensive roles? It’s really not unusual to see a coach rely on a veteran player in a defensive role. And especially in this case, where housley really doesn’t have another veteran defensive forward to rely on. I can almost guarantee that if housley had someone better to fill that role, he’d use them. Per the bold text, are you saying Travis Yost is a liar or are you including the 5x5 minutes of defensemen as well? Do you dismiss his analytics out of hand or the analyses of other analysts? I get that Housley is undermanned and would (hopefully) use some else if he were around to fill Sobotka’s role, but that’s just it, he is a ROLE player who is getting the 4th most 5x5 minutes of all the forwards (assuming Yost isn’t lying). Role players should not get those minutes when they suck at everything else other than their specific, limited roles.
BillsFan4 Posted February 12, 2019 Author Posted February 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, K-9 said: Per the bold text, are you saying Travis Yost is a liar or are you including the 5x5 minutes of defensemen as well? Do you dismiss his analytics out of hand or the analyses of other analysts? I get that Housley is undermanned and would (hopefully) use some else if he were around to fill Sobotka’s role, but that’s just it, he is a ROLE player who is getting the 4th most 5x5 minutes of all the forwards (assuming Yost isn’t lying). Role players should not get those minutes when they suck at everything else other than their specific, limited roles. I was saying out off all skaters (including defenseman) he’s 13th. I’m not saying I think Sobotka is good or that I dismiss his bad underlying statistics. Not at all. Just saying that everything has to be looked at in perspective. The difference between the 4th most used forward and the 7th most used forward is all of 15 seconds a game. There is about a 30 second different between the 4th most used forward and the 9th most used forward. And there is only a 1:14 difference between Sobotka’s use and the 24th most used player on the team. After our top 3 forwards, there is a jumble of players with very similar 5v5 ice time statistics. He is being used in a similar defensive role as he’s always been used, except he’s averaging about 2 less minutes per game under Housley than he did in all his years in St. Louis (under multiple different veteran head coaches). Also, I think it’s worth mentioning that in Yost’s analysis, the 4th most used forwards he’s comparing Sobotka to are all much better players, and most are on teams with more depth. Most of those 4th most used forwards (like Bergeron for ex.) get way more minutes than Sobotka does, too. Really, more than anything else, I think this report shows just how shallow the depth is on this current Sabres team, and how heavily our top guys are relied on.
K-9 Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said: I was saying out off all skaters (including defenseman) he’s 13th. I’m not saying I think Sobotka is good or that I dismiss his bad underlying statistics. Not at all. Just saying that everything has to be looked at in perspective. The difference between the 4th most used forward and the 7th most used forward is all of 15 seconds a game. There is about a 30 second different between the 4th most used forward and the 9th most used forward. And there is only a 1:14 difference between Sobotka’s use and the 24th most used player on the team. After our top 3 forwards, there is a jumble of players with very similar 5v5 ice time statistics. He is being used in a similar defensive role as he’s always been used, except he’s averaging about 2 less minutes per game under Housley than he did in all his years in St. Louis (under multiple different veteran head coaches). Also, I think it’s worth mentioning that in Yost’s analysis, the 4th most used forwards he’s comparing Sobotka to are all much better players, and most are on teams with more depth. Most of those 4th most used forwards (like Bergeron for ex.) get way more minutes than Sobotka does, too. Really, more than anything else, I think this report shows just how shallow the depth is on this current Sabres team, and how heavily our top guys are relied on. I appreciate the clarification, but we need to confine the discussion to forwards as defensemen and their ice time is a completely different animal and adding them to the forward equation isn't a fair comparison. Yes, the difference between 4th most and 7th most may seem insignificant, but not when you look at all of Sobotka's 5x5 metrics. They are simply terrible. No matter how you slice it, he simply doesn't merit being ahead of anyone when based on his output. He is a very limited role player, whether it's similar to what he did in St. Louis or not. And to average in Housley's use of him in the latter stages of his career vs. the minutes he played as a younger player doesn't mean much because it's not relevant to the situation today, in Buffalo. As you say, Yost's list is populated by much better players than Sobotka. Which kind of makes the entire point. Sobotka shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence as most of those players, let alone garner similar 5x5 ice time. I agree totally that we need better depth. But that doesn't mean Housley should shoehorn a limited role player into bigger roles, either. A good case in point is the OT vs. Carolina last week. Sobotka should be glued to the bench in 3 on 3, period. Housley's bullcrap coachspeak about wanting him out there for a D zone draw in the LEFT DOT is the epitome of overthinking a situation. And it backfired. As I've said in various previous posts, Housley is full of it when it comes to holding veteran players accountable. Several of them should have seen the press box at one time or another this year. So, I wonder about his cred in that locker room.
JohnC Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, K-9 said: No chase of the bogeyman required. Housley has been delivering a healthy dose of ineptitude for all to see since he got here so we can just sit back and let it come to us as we watch. Do you believe that the GM is going to replace Housley after this season?
Recommended Posts