Top 9 players in the draft.

[GunnerBill]

53 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I agree, I’m just not sure that a guy is there worthy of that top 10 pick. I think that the biggest needs for the Bills are OL and pass catchers. IMO, this draft has a lot of guys on day 2 that fill those roles. Ideally, I’d like them to trade down with the Redskins. Pick 9 & a 4th for pick 15, a 2nd and a 3rd. That would give the Bills 5 top 100 picks and can really boost the overall talent level.

 

If they stay at 9 it almost certainly has to be defense IMO. That’s just where the talent is. 

 

This.

 

The top 10 on my big board is as follows:

 

1. Nick Bosa

2. Ed Oliver

3. Quinnen Williams

4. Josh Allen

5. Greedy Williams

6. Clelin Ferrell

7. Devin White

8. Rashan Gary

9. Jeffrey Simmons

10. Deionte Thompson

 

All defense. 11, 12 and 13 are defense too. Jonah Williams is the first offensive guy on my big board at #14.

[RoyBatty is alive]

8 minutes ago, TPS said:

This will be key to their R1 pick this year, how many QBs will go in the first 8?  Then there is always the surprise pick, a la Browns at 4 last year...

 

Correct.

 

A lot of chatter this is a weak QB class but teams have learned if you dont have your franchise QB you have to reach, I think Haskins, Lock, the Duke QB, maybe even  Murray one or tow of these guys could be picked ahead of us. I also wouldn't be shocked to ses the Pats try and move up and go for the Duke Qb. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This.

 

The top 10 on my big board is as follows:

 

1. Nick Bosa

2. Ed Oliver

3. Quinnen Williams

4. Josh Allen

5. Greedy Williams

6. Clelin Ferrell

7. Devin White

8. Rashan Gary

9. Jeffrey Simmons

10. Deionte Thompson

 

All defense. 11, 12 and 13 are defense too. Jonah Williams is the first offensive guy on my big board at #14.

I do think Thompson is in play for us at 9

[buffalostu2]

It looks like consensus no offensive players in the top 10 in an offense driven league, hilarious.  We are really buying into those January "expert" process rankings.   Maybe reviewing draft history would be better strategy for our educated fan base.  QBs and WRs will be prominent in the first round as they always are.

 

My #1 pick for the Bills is N'Keal Harry and he will go top 10.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

Correct.

 

A lot of chatter this is a weak QB class but teams have learned if you dont have your franchise QB you have to reach, I think Haskins, Lock, the Duke QB, maybe even  Murray one or tow of these guys could be picked ahead of us. I also wouldn't be shocked to ses the Pats try and move up and go for the Duke Qb. 

 

If Drew Lock is a top 10 pick the NFL has lost its collective minds. I still think this draft is the one that is more 2013 like where you got a lot of mock drafters predicting one or two of Geno, EJ, Barkley and Nassib in the top 10 and eventually one QB at most gets drafted early. Murray is the wildcard though.... because if he was 6ft1 he would be the #1 pick. How tall he measures at the combine really, really matters. If he measures 5ft11 I think he will probably end up a 1st round pick and likely the top half of the 1st round. If he measures 5ft9 I think he is out of the 1st. I know it is only 2 inches but it is the difference between seeing a passing lane and not.

5 minutes ago, buffalostu2 said:

It looks like consensus no offensive players in the top 10 in an offense driven league, hilarious.  We are really buying into those January "expert" process rankings.   Maybe reviewing draft history would be better strategy for our educated fan base.  QBs and WRs will be prominent in the first round as they always are.

 

My #1 pick for the Bills is N'Keal Harry and he will go top 10.

 

The consensus is no offensive players among the best 10 players in this draft. There will be offensive guys picked in the top 10, but it will be mainly defense. I reckon 1 Quarterback, 1 Offensive Lineman and possibly 1 receiver but at the moment that would require a receiver to really separate in the all star games and the combine / workouts etc.

Edited January 18, 2019 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

46 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I'm hoping he is on the board.  I'd take White in an instant.  LB group set for YEARS.   Then trade back into the 1st and grab WR/OT.  I'm thinking we fix the OL through FA because we don't want rookies learning on the job, so I'm thinking we trade back into the 1st for a WR, and then grab OT in the 2nd. 

 

I hope one team loves Haskins, and another Murray.  Bidding war for #9. 

 

Staying at 9 and trading back into the first is certainly a possibility as we already know Beane isn’t afraid to make moves to get guys they covet.

 

However, I think the potential Washington trade down is a more likely possibility where we add some more assets as I expect Washington to go after a QB.  And with a defensive heavy draft, our slot could be a great fit for them and also not break the bank like trading up for RG3 did.  

 

Wouldnt surprise me to see Beane trade down to 15 picking up more draft assets like a 2nd and maybe a 3rd or 4th, then try making a splash trade for someone like Brown or Julio and still having plenty of draft assets to filll out roster needs.  

 

Thats what is so exciting about Beane, nothing is off the table and will be fun seeing this all unfold through out the offseason.  

[MrEpsYtown]

3 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I like to rank the top players I’d like the Bills to draft, so since we are drafting @ 9 it makes sense to at least rank them 1-9. Here are mine 

1. Nick Bosa

2.Josh Allen

3. Quinnen Williams

4. Devin White

5. Rashan Gary

 

Trade Down

 

6. Ja’Waan Taylor 

7. Ed Oliver 

8. Jonah Williams 

9.Greg Little 

Where’d I go wrong

 

None of the offensive players belong. 

 

Bosa

Q. Williams 

Allen

Oliver

White

J. Simmons

C. Ferrell

D. Brown

R. Gary

C. Wilkins

J. Polite

M. Sweat

Greedy Williams

Deionte Thompson

 

Something like that in my mind. All of those guys are better than any of the offensive players. 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

None of the offensive players belong. 

 

Bosa

Q. Williams 

Allen

Oliver

White

J. Simmons

C. Ferrell

D. Brown

R. Gary

C. Wilkins

J. Polite

M. Sweat

Greedy Williams

Deionte Thompson

 

Something like that in my mind. All of those guys are better than any of the offensive players. 

 

We have lots of the same guys slightly different order (who is D. Brown?) I think the interesting questions are where the ledges are - so I think there is one after the top 4 and then a smaller one after a group that for me includes G. Williams, White, Ferrell, Simmons and Gary. Then I think you get to a group where there are 4 or 5 defenders and 2 or 3 offensive guys just hanging in at the bottom of that tier too. 

[freddyjj]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

My prediction post combine:  One WR will be listed on many teams top 10 boards.  

 

And it will likely be one or the other of Metcalf or Harry.  And could be both, meaning some teams have one or the other if both show well at the combine.  

 

Metcalf will be able to remind people of the total package he is and Harry, who is already regarded by many as the best WR in college football, will be able to show he’s faster than he’s getting credit for.  

 

 

So while one or both may climb at combine, not sure it will be into top 10.  Metcalf's neck injury and rumored subsequent surgery will discount him .  And both players have done OK, but not great vs Big Schools.

 

Metcalf has some nice career #s but has only played in 21 games in which he compiled 67 catches for 1228 yds (18.3 YPC) and 14 TDS.  Impressive career YPC and TD stats (20 % of catches for TDs) but catch # / game just over 3 for career.  In only 7 career games versus SEC teams he has 20 catches for 363 yds and 6TDs.  Not what I see as dominant enough to move up to top 10.  And the injury is a real issue.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dk-metcalf-1/gamelog/

 

As for Harry, he has some prolific catch numbers in 37 career starts.  213 catches ( 6 rec/game) for 2889 yds (13.6 YPC) and 22 TD receptions.  So 10% TD reception rate which is not a great rate.  In 2018 in 9 games vs Pac10 teams and Michigan State, he had 49 catches for 701 yds and only 3 TDs .  Against Washington, with an NFL ready secondary, he had 5 catches for 20 yds and no TDs.  This is where his separation issues show up and might be why OBD passes given Bills nightmare from 2018 and receivers not gaining separation.  I will say Harry played well vs USC with a Receiving and Return TD.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nkeal-harry-1/gamelog/

 

And just for the record, recent WRs in Rd 1 are a crap shoot. 

In 2018 DJ Moore was first off the board at pick 24 primarily beacuse he did not produce in big games in college.

In 2017, there were 3 top 10 WRs and none have really gone off yet.  Corey Davis went at 5 to TN, Mike Williams to Chargers at 7 and John Ross at 9 to CIN.  Davis and Ross were potential projection guys and it hasn't worked out yet.

In 2016, there was not a top 10 WR and the list of 2016 Rd 1 WRS is a just a bunch of guys, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell.  Pass please.

In 2015, Amari Cooper went at 4 with this incredible 2014 stat line, 124 catches for 1727 yds and 16 TDs, with 12 of those in SEC and 2 more vs Ohio State in Bowl game. Kevin White from WVU went later to Bears in top 10 and had similar 2014 numbers versus Big 12 and even Alabama.  And we know how that turned out.

 

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by freddyjj

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

So while one or both may climb at combine, not sure it will be into top 10.  Metcalf's neck injury and rumored subsequent surgery will discount him .  And both players have done OK, but not great vs Big Schools.

 

Metcalf has some nice career #s but has only played in 21 games in which he compiled 67 catches for 1228 yds (18.3 YPC) and 14 TDS.  Versus the SEC teams in only 7 career games he has 20 catches for 363 yds and 6TDs.  Impressive career YPC and TD stats (20 % of catches for TDs) but catch # / game just over 3 for career.  Not what I see as dominant enough to move up to top 10.  And the injury is a real issue.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dk-metcalf-1/gamelog/

 

As for Harry, he has some prolific catch numbers in 37 career starts.  213 catches ( 6 rec/game) for 2889 yds (13.6 YPC) and 22 TD receptions.  So 10% TD reception rate which is not a great rate.  In 2018 in 9 games vs Pac10 teams and Michigan State, he had 49 catches for 701 yds and only 3 TDs .  Against Washington, with an NFL ready secondary, he had 5 catches for 20 yds and no TDs.  This is where his separation issues show up and might be why OBD passes given Bills nightmare from 2018 and receivers not gaining separation.  I will say Harry played well vs USC with a Receiving and Return TD.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/nkeal-harry-1/gamelog/

 

And just for the record, recent WRs in Rd 1 are a crap shoot. 

In 2018 DJ Moore was first off the board at pick 24 primarily beacuse he did not produce in big games in college.

In 2017, there were 3 top 10 WRs and none have really gone off yet.  Corey Davis went at 5 to TN, Mike Williams to Chargers at 7 and John Ross at 9 to CIN.  Davis and Ross were potential projection guys and it hasn't worked out yet.

In 2016, there was not a top 10 WR and the list of 2016 Rd 1 WRS is a just a bunch of guys, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson and Laquon Treadwell.  Pass please.

In 2015, Amari Cooper went at 4 with this incredible 2014 stat line, 124 catches for 1727 yds and 16 TDs, with 12 of those in SEC and 2 more vs Ohio State in Bowl game. Kevin White from WVU went later to Bears in top 10 and had similar 2014 numbers versus Big 12 and even Alabama.  And we know how that turned out.

 

 

 

Mike Williams played pretty well this year but agree it isn't a great list. I don't think this class has a stud WR. It has lots of guys who belong late day 1 or more appropriately in day 2 for me but some will get pushed up the board. 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This.

 

The top 10 on my big board is as follows:

 

1. Nick Bosa

2. Ed Oliver

3. Quinnen Williams

4. Josh Allen

5. Greedy Williams

6. Clelin Ferrell

7. Devin White

8. Rashan Gary

9. Jeffrey Simmons

10. Deionte Thompson

 

All defense. 11, 12 and 13 are defense too. Jonah Williams is the first offensive guy on my big board at #14.

Your board is very sound. But let me ask you that if Delonte Thompson was rated #10 and Jonah Williams was rated #14 who do you think would have more value to the Bills? Without diminishing Thompson I would comfortably say Jonah Williams. The ranking of players is a very imprecise process. Precisely sticking to it without factoring in your specific team's needs is in my opinion is not the wisest approach to take. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Just now, JohnC said:

Your board is very sound. But let me ask you that if Delonte Thompson was rated #10 and Jonah Williams was rated #14 who do you think would have more value to the Bills? Without diminishing Thompson I would comfortably say Jonah Williams. The ranking of players is a very imprecise process. Precisely sticking to it without factoring in your specific team's needs is in my opinion is not the wisest approach to take. 

Depends if our safety tandem, which signed at bargain prices, are content with their pay

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Depends if our safety tandem, which signed at bargain prices, are content with their pay

Good point. But for the sake of simplifying my proposition let's assume that money is not an issue with our current tandem. Then which player between Thompson and Josh Williams would be more impacting for the Bills? My contention is the Bama lineman. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

Good point. But for the sake of simplifying my proposition let's assume that money is not an issue with our current tandem. Then which player between Thompson and Josh Williams would be more impacting for the Bills? My contention is the Bama lineman. 

I have Williams as a late first, so I'm still not there.

[JohnC]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

I have Williams as a late first, so I'm still not there.

What offensive tackles do you have ranked ahead of him? 

[BuffaloHokie13]

Greg Little and Yodney Cajuste. I'm assuming one of them will go in the top 10, but it'll be a need pick rather than a value pick.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Your board is very sound. But let me ask you that if Delonte Thompson was rated #10 and Jonah Williams was rated #14 who do you think would have more value to the Bills? Without diminishing Thompson I would comfortably say Jonah Williams. The ranking of players is a very imprecise process. Precisely sticking to it without factoring in your specific team's needs is in my opinion is not the wisest approach to take. 

 

As I discussed later in the thread to me there is a tier at 4 and a tier at 9. At this point (and there is another phase of work and re-watches to do) I wouldn't pass on any of my top 9 to take Jonah Williams for ON FIELD reasons. There may with Oliver but especially Simmons be off field reasons to pass on them. 

 

But if I had discounted those two and the other 7 in my top 9 had gone and the choices at 9 were the guys in my third tier - which includes Thompson and Jonah Williams then I would, probably, say they are close enough grades to take Jonah at #9. Though there is another couple of pass rushers in between the two on my board as well who I would probably prefer (higher ceilings at prime positions - Williams has elite potential at Guard for me but only "good starter" potential at LT which is the prime position).

 

Basically as I have said before my 1st preference at #9 is stand pat and take a top pass rush prospect. My 2nd preference is trade back and target a receiver or an OL in the mid-late teens. My 3rd preference is Jonah Williams. 

 

But as always my board is not necessarily my order of preference for the Bills. The first 4 I would pick in the order I rank them. After that if Ferrell is on the board he is my guy.

 

I know a lot of people hate the thought we might go defense in the 1st but the team people keep comparing us to - the Bears - who were a good defense and a bad offense in 2017 went defense in the 1st in the 2018 draft and traded their 2019 1st for a defensive player too. You can't force the draft to match up with need. You have to play the draft that is there not the one you wish was there. 

 

 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As I discussed later in the thread to me there is a tier at 4 and a tier at 9. At this point (and there is another phase of work and re-watches to do) I wouldn't pass on any of my top 9 to take Jonah Williams for ON FIELD reasons. There may with Oliver but especially Simmons be off field reasons to pass on them. 

 

But if I had discounted those two and the other 7 in my top 9 had gone and the choices at 9 were the guys in my third tier - which includes Thompson and Jonah Williams then I would, probably, say they are close enough grades to take Jonah at #9. Though there is another couple of pass rushers in between the two on my board as well who I would probably prefer (higher ceilings at prime positions - Williams has elite potential at Guard for me but only "good starter" potential at LT which is the prime position).

 

Basically as I have said before my 1st preference at #9 is stand pat and take a top pass rush prospect. My 2nd preference is trade back and target a receiver or an OL in the mid-late teens. My 3rd preference is Jonah Williams. 

 

But as always my board is not necessarily my order of preference for the Bills. The first 4 I would pick in the order I rank them. After that if Ferrell is on the board he is my guy.

 

I know a lot of people hate the thought we might go defense in the 1st but the team people keep comparing us to - the Bears - who were a good defense and a bad offense in 2017 went defense in the 1st in the 2018 draft and traded their 2019 1st for a defensive player too. You can't force the draft to match up with need. You have to play the draft that is there not the one you wish was there. 

 

 

Thanks for the response. Let me ask where you have the top three O-linemen ranked. And if we decided to take a more highly rated defenseman with our first pick then what O-linemen would be available in the second round and still be good additions for us. 

[BillsFan1988]

We need to trade bk and draft the TE of the future. Either Fant or TJ Hockenson. There's no more then a mismatch nightmare in today's NFL then a do it all TE. Build the oline in free agency and use tge draft to get difference makers.

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Thanks for the response. Let me ask where you have the top three O-linemen ranked. And if we decided to take a more highly rated defenseman with our first pick then what O-linemen would be available in the second round and still be good additions for us. 

 

So in the 2nd I am intrigued by the right tackle out of Wisconsin - he is still a bit raw (former TE... we had some success with a TE to T convert before) but he is a beast in the run game. I need to watch some more of him but he at least has my interest at this stage.