Mel Kiper Mocks — 1.0 DT Rashan Gary 2.0 DK Metcalf

[Thurman#1]

On 1/19/2019 at 1:06 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Honestly, you are not really wrong.  However, I do think in this case it’s more to do with Kiper who is just a hard guy to like and so frequently wrong that brings out more criticism.  He’s the Stephen A Smith or the Skip Bayless of mock drafts.  For instance, you won’t likely see as much dislike on a mock or draft opinion from someone like Mayock.  

 

And part of any discussion about an “opinion” is also where said opinion originated from.  So being critical of the source seems to be a fair part to a discussion of said opinion.  

 

All good though.  

 

 

 

Kiper's very good at what he does.

 

He's stopped submitting his mocks to the Huddle Report, but back when he did he was in the top five for accuracy over a five year period. He's very good and he's got tons of connections in team personnel departments.

 

And as Mayock has said, the thing he admires about Kiper is how early in the process if you ask him about some safety at a small school who's maybe going to be a 6th rounder if he's lucky, Kiper spits out an informed take. He watched absolute squatloads of video on these guys. And he's thoughtful.

 

Think he's a blowhard? Fine, that's reasonable. To me, he looks like an obsessive who I'd love to spend time with when I'm in the mood to talk football. Very opinionated, but I like that, personally. There's room for all opinions. But he's very good at his job.

 

Not that that means he knows who the Bills, or anyone, will pick. Nobody does. But he does generally have a reasonable take with the info at hand at the time.. Which is what you can expect in a good mock.

 

 

8 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

I'll cry if we go defense in the 1st round...

Having the 2nd overall defense, and the 30th overall offense SHOULD make it obvious which side of the ball needs the most work.

 

 

The side that the BPA plays on.

 

Agreed the O needs more work. But they'll fill in the major holes in FA.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

On ‎1‎/‎19‎/‎2019 at 5:03 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

This sounds a lot like what people were saying when a few of us were pushing Aaron Donald as the Bills pick.   Wasn't an immediate area of need.   Best non-QB in football the past few seasons though.  20 sacks from DT this year......amazing.  

 

In a couple years it's more than likely that 2 of Hughes, Shaq and Murphy will be gone........you don't draft early to patch holes this year.......but for impact players at hard to fill spots 2-3 years down the line.   

 

I loved the Allen and Edmunds picks but let's remember we graded them on a curve.    Edmunds graded poorly and was particularly abused by veteran QB's and Allen threw more pics than TD's.   Without the "rookie curve" they were pretty bad.

 

Next year McD needs to win so don't be surprised by early picks of guys who will not be thrust into every down roles where they can be exploited like Allen and Edmunds.   I don't expect them to make the same mistake as Rex/Whaley did trying to just get low-ceiling, off-the-bus starters.

 

A high ceiling rotational pass rusher is very reasonable investment.   Pass rushers are only trumped by QB's in importance. 

 

The Bills most productive pass rushers in 2018:

 

Jerry Hughes - 18 hits; 7 sacks - 31 years old when 2019 season kicks off

Lorenzo Alexander - 10 hits; 6.5 sacks - 36 years old when 2019 season kicks off

Kyle Williams - 14 hits; 5 sacks - Retired

 

(the next best was Shaq - 12 hits and 4 sacks)

 

How anyone can look at that and not believe we have a need for a pass rusher I am not quite sure. If a high ceiling pass rusher is there for them at #9 they absolutely must take him.

 

[FearLess Price]

6 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

would be nice for the big investment to have a quality pass catching TE to throw to ...

 

I agreed with that. Its chicken and egg tho in a way. 

Let it be said you cant reach for a need in the top 10 and get top value for ur pick usually.

 

But

 

Is it more important to get him that TE or a LT C or OG to keep him cleaner back there?

 

Whats more valuable right now for the team considering how things went last season

[BuffaloFan68]

My early prediction is we grab Jonah Williams, OL, Alabam with our first pick & then trade back up & grab a WR, either Harry, Brown or Metcalf. 

Let’s Go Buffalo!!!!

[reddogblitz]

4 hours ago, FearLess Price said:

 

I agreed with that. Its chicken and egg tho in a way. 

Let it be said you cant reach for a need in the top 10 and get top value for ur pick usually.

 

But

 

Is it more important to get him that TE or a LT C or OG to keep him cleaner back there?

 

Whats more valuable right now for the team considering how things went last season

 

Doesn't matter to me where we get one.  But I think it's very important for the "major investment" to have much upgraded "weapons" in 2019.  No more Clay.  He costs us games. Not sure Croom is up to it yet.

 

I think we could add and greatly improve OL AND TE AND WR.  90 mil. 10 draft picks.

 

Not vastly improving WR and TE will stunt the "major investment"'s growth.

 

Also, with a new OL coach and Daboll allegedly starting to implement more of NE style offense, the OL line could very well be significantly better adding a piece or two.

 

Doesn't have to be either/or IMHO.

Edited January 25, 2019 by reddogblitz

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

8 hours ago, FearLess Price said:

 

I agreed with that. Its chicken and egg tho in a way. 

Let it be said you cant reach for a need in the top 10 and get top value for ur pick usually.

 

But

 

Is it more important to get him that TE or a LT C or OG to keep him cleaner back there?

 

Whats more valuable right now for the team considering how things went last season

We need better players at WR, TE and OL. Is there really a need to define which is most important? All of those positions must be addressed this offseason, and all of them will be. The first round pick is not the only way to do it- there are 10 total draft picks, plus free agency, plus trades.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills most productive pass rushers in 2018:

 

Jerry Hughes - 18 hits; 7 sacks - 31 years old when 2019 season kicks off

Lorenzo Alexander - 10 hits; 6.5 sacks - 36 years old when 2019 season kicks off

Kyle Williams - 14 hits; 5 sacks - Retired

 

(the next best was Shaq - 12 hits and 4 sacks)

 

How anyone can look at that and not believe we have a need for a pass rusher I am not quite sure. If a high ceiling pass rusher is there for them at #9 they absolutely must take him.

 

McDermott has been a wizard the last 2 years finding a way to field a good defense without a DL that's going to win matchups with any consistency. He's a master at diagnosing during the week the areas of the field an offense likes to attack and dropping guys into zones in the right places to make a QB hesitate. They also have a lot of ways to 'simulate pressure' (stunts/twists/games) to free guys up.

 

But even so, the pass rush disappears for full games at times. A team like New England diagnoses what we do and coaches their guys up ahead of time on what to expect, and Brady has all day.

 

At some point we're going to have to address the DL and get the horses that can actually win matchups up front. At some point we have to be the line with the better talent. 

 

It seems like in the 1st round, DL may be the best meeting of need and value.

Edited January 25, 2019 by 2018 Our Year For Sure

[TheBeaneBandit]

23 minutes ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

McDermott has been a wizard the last 2 years finding a way to field a good defense without a DL that's going to win matchups with any consistency. He's a master at diagnosing during the week the areas of the field an offense likes to attack and dropping guys into zones in the right places to make a QB hesitate. They also have a lot of ways to 'simulate pressure' (stunts/twists/games) to free guys up.

 

But even so, the pass rush disappears for full games at times. A team like New England diagnoses what we do and coaches their guys up ahead of time on what to expect, and Brady has all day.

 

At some point we're going to have to address the DL and get the horses that can actually win matchups up front. At some point we have to be the line with the better talent. 

 

It seems like in the 1st round, DL may be the best meeting of need and value.

It is, and it's pretty clear cut imo

[Logic]

25 minutes ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

McDermott has been a wizard the last 2 years finding a way to field a good defense without a DL that's going to win matchups with any consistency. He's a master at diagnosing during the week the areas of the field an offense likes to attack and dropping guys into zones in the right places to make a QB hesitate. They also have a lot of ways to 'simulate pressure' (stunts/twists/games) to free guys up.

 

But even so, the pass rush disappears for full games at times. A team like New England diagnoses what we do and coaches their guys up ahead of time on what to expect, and Brady has all day.

 

At some point we're going to have to address the DL and get the horses that can actually win matchups up front. At some point we have to be the line with the better talent. 

 

It seems like in the 1st round, DL may be the best meeting of need and value.

Excellent post, and I agree.

Those who don't want to see the Bills spend premium assets on the defensive line are going to be the same people bitching and moaning in a year or two when the Bills suddenly can't pressure the opposing QB at all and, consequently, McDermott's defense suffers a huge drop-off.

Two position groups that I never, ever get mad at my team for selecting in the high rounds: Offensive linemen and defensive linemen. If the first round is long on quality defensive linemen and short on quality offensive players, then by all means, the Bills should take a defensive lineman. You can never have too many good ones.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

Excellent post, and I agree.

Those who don't want to see the Bills spend premium assets on the defensive line are going to be the same people bitching and moaning in a year or two when the Bills suddenly can't pressure the opposing QB at all and, consequently, McDermott's defense suffers a huge drop-off.

Two position groups that I never, ever get mad at my team for selecting in the high rounds: Offensive linemen and defensive linemen. If the first round is long on quality defensive linemen and short on quality offensive players, then by all means, the Bills should take a defensive lineman. You can never have too many good ones.

 

 

....just curious about your assessment....from a defensive perspective, is it McDermott and Frazier is his "assistant"?........he did give Frazier a game ball saying, "it's all HIM"......I know McDermott's background is defense, but can he afford to be THAT much involved in the "D" while the offensive side is neglected?....shouldn't a bonafide HC be the overall, balanced game manager to get the "big picture"?...

[Logic]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

....just curious about your assessment....from a defensive perspective, is it McDermott and Frazier is his "assistant"?........he did give Frazier a game ball saying, "it's all HIM"......I know McDermott's background is defense, but can he afford to be THAT much involved in the "D" while the offensive side is neglected?....shouldn't a bonafide HC be the overall, balanced game manager to get the "big picture"?...

I believe the scheme is largely McDermott's. Things like the Double A-Gap blitz package, the reliance on simple zone schemes but with great disguised looks by the safeties to keep opponents guessing, the reliance on the front four to get pressure but featuring lots of creative stunts and twists...all of that has McDermott's fingerprints all over it. So I think of it as "his" scheme. Leslie Frazier's defenses, while they have many similarities, also had many differences. For instance, I seem to recall Frazier's defenses when he was the head guy being much more Tampa 2 based than McDermott's.

While it's McDermott's scheme, I think Frazier does a lot of the teaching and game day coaching of the defense. So all the emphasis on fundamentals and the teaching of the scheme largely falls to Frazier, and then I think Frazier is usually the primary creator of the defensive gameplan and the one most often calling the plays on gameday. 

With the defense playing McDermott's scheme, but with it being taught and coached by Frazier, I think of it as a true collaborative effort. Also, make no mistake: While McDermott coaches both sides of the ball and does his best to be an all-around coach and not JUST a defensive guy ...I do think more of his coaching energies and expertise go toward helping the defense. It's simply where his experience lies. I believe Daboll has a bit more autonomy with the offense than Frazier has with the defense. Just a hunch.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

3 minutes ago, Logic said:

I believe the scheme is largely McDermott's. Things like the Double A-Gap blitz package, the reliance on simple zone schemes but with great disguised looks by the safeties to keep opponents guessing, the reliance on the front four to get pressure but featuring lots of creative stunts and twists...all of that has McDermott's fingerprints all over it. So I think of it as "his" scheme. Leslie Frazier's defenses, while they have many similarities, also had many differences. For instance, I seem to recall Frazier's defenses when he was the head guy being much more Tampa 2 based than McDermott's.

While it's McDermott's scheme, I think Frazier does a lot of the teaching and game day coaching of the defense. So all the emphasis on fundamentals and the teaching of the scheme largely falls to Frazier, and then I think Frazier is usually the primary creator of the defensive gameplan and the one most often calling the plays on gameday. 

With the defense playing McDermott's scheme, but with it being taught and coached by Frazier, I think of it as a true collaborative effort. Also, make no mistake: While McDermott coaches both sides of the ball and does his best to be an all-around coach and not JUST a defensive guy ...I do think more of his coaching energies and expertise go toward helping the defense. It's simply where his experience lies. I believe Daboll has a bit more autonomy with the offense than Frazier has with the defense. Just a hunch.

 

 

 

cannot thank you enough for this expert analysis.....thanks for sharing my friend.....

[FearLess Price]

7 hours ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

We need better players at WR, TE and OL. Is there really a need to define which is most important? All of those positions must be addressed this offseason, and all of them will be. The first round pick is not the only way to do it- there are 10 total draft picks, plus free agency, plus trades.

 

Most of those picks are late rounders. You damn right you define which is most important!!

 

I hope Beane does that part of his job right, you dont draft simply out of need but you def take whatyour lacking into consideration that common sense. Or then you end up drafting cj spiller in the 1st round with f jax and marshawn lynch in the backfield  and wondering why fans are pissed. 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

Just now, FearLess Price said:

 

Most of those picks are late rounders. You damn right you define which is most important!!

 

I hope Beane does that part of his job right, you dont draft simply out of need but you def take whatyour lacking into consideration that common sense. Or then you end up drafting cj spiller in the 1st round with f jax and marshawn lynch in the backfield  and wondering why fans are pissed. 

They're all needs though, breh. It's not like running back at that time.

 

Beans has talked about needing to be better up front and also talked about needing to provide Josh with better weapons. Both of those things must, and will happen.

[Bill Murray]

Hadn’t thought about a pass rusher really until reading all the comments in this thread (genreally have been rooting for OL the whole time) but I think I now agree if we can take a rush DL we absolutely shouldn’t hesitate.

 

Looking at mocks right now, seems Bosa, J Allen, and Q Williams are quarenteed to be gone.  Now it could get interesting.. the QBs always ascend up the board later in the process so after those 3, if we get 2QBs taken ahead of us, plus maybe Greedy Williams and one of the OTs (J Williams, Ford, or Taylor), we could end up with one of:

 

Clelin Ferrell, DE

Ed Oliver, DT

Reshan Gary, DE/DT

Jeffry Simmons, DT

Jachai Polite, DE

Christian Wilkins, DT

Montez Sweat, DE

 

all projected in the top 15 or 20 in various mocks 

 

 

 

[FearLess Price]

8 hours ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

They're all needs though, breh. It's not like running back at that time.

 

Beans has talked about needing to be better up front and also talked about needing to provide Josh with better weapons. Both of those things must, and will happen.

 

 

They have to if we dont wanna swiss cheese our new qb and playoff chances next year

[Philly’sFinest]

I think the value is definitely gonna be at DL in this draft.

 

My preference in that case is to trade down if at all possible.

 

I prefer to get true game changers with a top ten pick, and typically DL don’t fit that bill. There may be one or two each draft, but they will most likely be chosen by our turn.

 

Move down and start addressing the litany of needs we have.

 

 

[CookieG]

On 1/22/2019 at 6:42 AM, Bill from NYC said:

Any thoughts on Montez Sweat from Miss. St.?

He's good, he's got long arms, a good power/speed combo and had a very good Senior Bowl week.

 

He has a chance at redemption today against OT Dalton Risner of Kansas State. When they met earlier in the year, Risner won the fight by decision. They should face off today.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

1 hour ago, Philly’sFinest said:

I think the value is definitely gonna be at DL in this draft.

 

My preference in that case is to trade down if at all possible.

 

I prefer to get true game changers with a top ten pick, and typically DL don’t fit that bill. There may be one or two each draft, but they will most likely be chosen by our turn.

 

Move down and start addressing the litany of needs we have.

 

 

I did a mock last night on Fanspeak and took Nkeal Harry in the 1st. What i found was a ton of depth and value at WR as I went through the draft rounds and not as much at DL. I regretted the WR in the 1st. I think it’s actually a bit top heavy at DL in the first couple rounds. Jmo. Everything will continue to change though after FA. 

Edited January 26, 2019 by YoloinOhio

[YoloinOhio]