Aussie Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: No, Alexander is not going to be publicly critical of Star, but he seems to have gone out of his way to say good things about him. I commented before about the idea of "over paid by a couple million." There always are guys on your roster who are getting paid more than their value, and there are guys who are underpaid. There is not way to measure exactly how important a player is to the team, and there is no way to translate into dollars to know exactly how much to pay him. So you always have some overpaid and some underpaid. It would be nice if the entire roster were underpaid, but that isn't reality. As long as you don't have too many guys being overpaid by too much, it doesn't matter if a guy is overpaid. What matters is whether he's doing the job you want him to do. All indications are that Star is doing what the Bills want him to do, the Bills aren't in cap trouble because of his contract, so it doesn't make sense to get excited about it. I don't understand those stats about performance over replacement, but that kind of analysis is what's necessary if you want to know whether the Bills made a mistake or not. That is, how much would it have cost to get someone better, or how much could the Bills have saved by getting someone worse and how much worse would he have been. It's almost a certainty that the right player at exactly the right price was not available in free agency last year. Pretty much agree with what you are saying... The reason I'm not too hung up about Star's contract in particular is that they can move on at the end of 2020 before they have to start paying the 2017 draft class.. They seem to have plenty of spare money the next two years to afford his deal.. To be honest, I'm hoping they might have his replacement under a rookie contract by then.. Also, I think Beane is no dummy when it comes to negotiating, based on some of the other deals we have seen from him.. he wouldn't have paid him $10M a year for the sake of it.. assume another team was bidding up the price and they thought they had a bigger need for him... Still, I think its fair to make an assessment about the deal now we are a season on ... Also, keep in mind Beane's comments yesterday about not overpaying players.. I think there is a little bit of "practice what you preach" in relation to Star's deal... Edited January 16, 2019 by Aussie Joe 1
LSHMEAB Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) 3 hours ago, Logic said: Star is "mediocre" and "middle of the pack"? According to who? Also, only maybe 2-3 teams the entire season "crammed the ball down the Bills throat" in the run game. As has already been covered in this thread, their run defense improved this season. They also finished with the #2 defense in the entire league this season. You don't get to blame Star for occasional bad run defense and ALSO not give him credit for contributing to the second best defense in the NFL. That's biased cherry picking at its finest. Pro Football Focus graded him at 59.9, which is at the low end of average. I know, what do they know? A teammate had nice things to say about him, so analytics be damned. He was rated much higher as a rookie while also putting up pedestrian stats, so their analysis is not entirely stats based. 10 mil for Star was not a great allocation of resources. It is what it is. He's gonna be on the team so I hope he at least does something right. Edited January 16, 2019 by LSHMEAB
Shaw66 Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: Pretty much agree with what you are saying... The reason I'm not too hung up about Star's contract in particular is that they can move on at the end of 2020 before they have to start paying the 2017 draft class.. They seem to have plenty of spare money the next two years to afford his deal.. To be honest, I'm hoping they might have his replacement under a rookie contract by then.. Also, I think Beane is no dummy when it comes to negotiating, based on some of the other deals we have seen from him.. he wouldn't have paid him $10M a year for the sake of it.. assume another team was bidding up the price and they thought they had a bigger need for him... Still, I think its fair to make an assessment about the deal now we are a season on ... Also, keep in mind Beane's comments yesterday about not overpaying players.. I think there is a little bit of "practice what you preach" in relation to Star's deal... Yes in one sense it's fair for all of us to make our own assessments. I just don't think anyone's assessment here of a DT is very valuable. None of us knows what Star was supposed to do any particular play, so none of us really can evaluate how well he did it. Kyle laughed at the notion that amateurs can evaluate film and rate players.
Aussie Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Shaw66 said: Yes in one sense it's fair for all of us to make our own assessments. I just don't think anyone's assessment here of a DT is very valuable. None of us knows what Star was supposed to do any particular play, so none of us really can evaluate how well he did it. Kyle laughed at the notion that amateurs can evaluate film and rate players. True.. The real judgement about how they value him will come when they are able to move on from him with nil or minimal dead money.. We will see if they are still happy paying him come 2021
Rufridr101 Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 I think star does his job well but has a rookie middle linebacker without instincts playing behind him
ComradeKayAdams Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 The Bucs might cut Gerald McCoy. Someone like him, Grady Jarrett, or one of the blue chip DT's in the draft would amplify the value of the Lotulelei investment. Here are Star's contract numbers: 2019: $11.5 million of cap, $12.4 million dead cap 2020: $10.1 million of cap, $7.8 million dead cap 2021: $10.85 million of cap, $5.2 million dead cap 2022: $10.85 million of cap, $2.6 million dead cap 2023: free agent So he's here to stay for the next two seasons, but can be cut in 2021 if necessary. But folks, let me reiterate: we are going to have a very hard time reaching the cap ceiling this year or next. We have the 3rd best cap situation in the NFL this year, with about $85 million cap space and 50 guys under contract after the inevitable Clay cut. For next year, we have the #1 cap situation in the league, with $130 million of space and 25 guys under contract. Cap space isn't going to be the limiting factor at all for whomever Beane wants to sign this year or next. As long as our run D is top-10, how much Star makes shouldn't really be an issue for the fans. It's between Star and Terry Pegula, really. Why not start a thread about how much Terry is still paying Rex Ryan? Or how about Ville Leino, for you Sabres fans?
LSHMEAB Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 19 minutes ago, MichaelAbdallah said: The Bucs might cut Gerald McCoy. Someone like him, Grady Jarrett, or one of the blue chip DT's in the draft would amplify the value of the Lotulelei investment. Here are Star's contract numbers: 2019: $11.5 million of cap, $12.4 million dead cap 2020: $10.1 million of cap, $7.8 million dead cap 2021: $10.85 million of cap, $5.2 million dead cap 2022: $10.85 million of cap, $2.6 million dead cap 2023: free agent So he's here to stay for the next two seasons, but can be cut in 2021 if necessary. But folks, let me reiterate: we are going to have a very hard time reaching the cap ceiling this year or next. We have the 3rd best cap situation in the NFL this year, with about $85 million cap space and 50 guys under contract after the inevitable Clay cut. For next year, we have the #1 cap situation in the league, with $130 million of space and 25 guys under contract. Cap space isn't going to be the limiting factor at all for whomever Beane wants to sign this year or next. As long as our run D is top-10, how much Star makes shouldn't really be an issue for the fans. It's between Star and Terry Pegula, really. Why not start a thread about how much Terry is still paying Rex Ryan? Or how about Ville Leino, for you Sabres fans? I agree with your point regarding the cap, but that's not the only issue. It's entirely possible there's a BETTER player that could take his position that will become available in FA'cy. McCoy for instance, but then we could be getting into cost prohibitive territory paying two DT's that kind of money.
Logic Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 What's weirdest to me overall about the hand wringing over the money the Bills are paying Star is this: You have to pay SOMEBODY. As it is, even with Star's "big, horrible, albatross of a contract", the Bills still have the third most cap room in the league in 2019, and are projected to be in the top 5 in cap space available in 2020, as well. They jettisoned Dareus' horrible contract and replaced it with a better contract for a better player...and they STILL have oodles of money to spend going forward. By the time the young Bills like White and Edmunds and Milano have paydays coming due, the Bills will be able to get out of Star's contract with little dead money against the cap. So until such time as the Bills have players WORTHY of big-bucks contracts, I'm perfectly okay with them overpaying a little bit to bring quality free agents at important positions to Buffalo. And again, with the way the cap keeps going up and with Star's value to the defense, I'm not even convinced he's THAT overpaid, if at all. But I suppose the key players in this thread have all made their opinions known at this point, and no one's really swaying anyone to change their stance. At this point, we're all (myself included) just sort of pissin' in the wind. 1
ComradeKayAdams Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said: I agree with your point regarding the cap, but that's not the only issue. It's entirely possible there's a BETTER player that could take his position that will become available in FA'cy. McCoy for instance, but then we could be getting into cost prohibitive territory paying two DT's that kind of money. But the 3-technique DT is not the same as the nose tackle. They have different responsibilities and (normally) different skill sets. A DT like McCoy would be the gap-penetrating DT, while Lotulelei would be the space-occupying DT. Paying premium money for both is not at all a bad idea, especially for the Jim Johnson style of defense that McDermott runs that relies more heavily on the DL than other defensive styles. It's not an accident that 3 of the 4 players on defense making greater than 4 million are on the DL (Star, Hughes, Murphy vs. just Hyde).
LSHMEAB Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MichaelAbdallah said: But the 3-technique DT is not the same as the nose tackle. They have different responsibilities and (normally) different skill sets. A DT like McCoy would be the gap-penetrating DT, while Lotulelei would be the space-occupying DT. Paying premium money for both is not at all a bad idea, especially for the Jim Johnson style of defense that McDermott runs that relies more heavily on the DL than other defensive styles. It's not an accident that 3 of the 4 players on defense making greater than 4 million are on the DL (Star, Hughes, Murphy vs. just Hyde). I understand the value of defensive lineman and I understand the difference between 3T and NT. Just not a fan of Star. You make solid points, but we're still talking about investing 20 plus MIL at DT when we need edge playmakers. Ideally we draft a Clenin Ferrill to mitigate some of the allocation issues.
vincec Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:42 AM, Happy Gilmore said: Lorax thinks Star is worth every bit of his contract since his (Star) play helps others make plays. https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/01/bills-lorenzo-alexander-says-star-lotulelei-earned-every-bit-of-big-contract.html "But Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander, who called Lotulelei “disruptive,” said that the former Panthers tackle was well worth it and is going to be a staple on the team for years to come. “Obviously he (doesn’t play) a sexy position, but he allows other people around him to make plays,” Alexander said. “I’ve definitely been able to have a pretty good year this year. A lot of it is contributed to what he’s been able to do as far as keeping guys off me, allowing me to run free. “In the pass rush, people can’t step up. On first or second down I know a couple of guys that have gotten sacks throughout the year just because Star has gotten that great push. He’s earned every bit of what he’s got with that five-year deal.” " Leslie Frazier's take on Star: “He demands a double team which allows our linebackers to run free and make some of the tackles that people might think the nose tackle should be making,” Frazier said. “That has been a plus for us, helping our linebackers to improve. But also to help our run defense. He’s done a good job of commanding attention from their interior, their center and their guards. It’s hard to block him one-one-one and that’s what we needed and he’s given us that.” I saw plenty of times where he wasn’t double teamed and was handled fine. And the Bills run defense wasn’t really that good last season so I don’t really get what they’re saying. 2
Trogdor Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 12:09 PM, thurst44 said: The Bills Run D was 29th in 2017 and 16th in 2018, giving up 10 fewer yards per game. They were also solid in most games (under 100 in half), but were so terrible in three that's all many of us remember. Even if you don't like that level of improvement, it's debatable that he was solely brought in to "improve our run defense" -- more often, I heard the justification was that we were getting murdered in the short pass game because QBs could step up into the middle and outlet a quick pass to the tight end. To that end, I'm pretty sure we allowed the fewest yards to tight ends this year. Is the scarcity of snaps concerning? Sure. However, given that this defense improved from 26th to 2nd and we have a plethora of cap space to address offensive issues (and he's not the reason we didn't have wide receivers this year), I trust their moves for now on the defensive side of the ball. 10 yards less isn't really impressive considering the short fields most teams started with. The red zone defense was terrible and they struggled stopping the same runs over and over.
Green Lightning Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 11:45 AM, C.Biscuit97 said: Is a teammate going to say their teammate isn’t worth the money? Yeah, they're called the Steelers.
Happy Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, vincec said: I saw plenty of times where he wasn’t double teamed and was handled fine. And the Bills run defense wasn’t really that good last season so I don’t really get what they’re saying. True, the run defense wasn't that great. Some will attribute that to Tremaine Edmunds being a rookie and still learning to call gap assignments; he had problems himself containing the run at times, so I can see some truth to that. If Star was that bad, I doubt Lorax would endorse his performance to the degree that he did in the article.
Thurman#1 Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 (edited) On 1/16/2019 at 1:23 AM, ******* said: Currently DT Star Lotulelei will take up a team-high 5.8% of the #Bills salary cap in 2019 after signing a five-year, $50 million deal with Buffalo last offseason. Despite this, he only played in 46.9% of defensive snaps last season & he played in all 16 games They needed him. He's played well at what they wanted him to do. The defense played very very well this year. (2nd in DVOA, by the by. They're very symmetrical in DVOA, 2nd worst on offense, 2nd best on defense) He's one of the reasons they're very good.. He's the 16th-highest paid DT in average yearly salary, not top ten or top five. And he was third on the DL in percentage of snaps. This D rotates guys out a lot. Kyle was in 64.7%, Hughes 65.9% and Lotulelei was next. Nothing to see here. Seriously, nothing. Edited January 17, 2019 by Thurman#1
Shaw66 Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 11 hours ago, MichaelAbdallah said: But the 3-technique DT is not the same as the nose tackle. They have different responsibilities and (normally) different skill sets. A DT like McCoy would be the gap-penetrating DT, while Lotulelei would be the space-occupying DT. Paying premium money for both is not at all a bad idea, especially for the Jim Johnson style of defense that McDermott runs that relies more heavily on the DL than other defensive styles. It's not an accident that 3 of the 4 players on defense making greater than 4 million are on the DL (Star, Hughes, Murphy vs. just Hyde). You make a good point about spending on the D line. I think it's correct. Plus, if your line is properly constructed, one of your main stay guys is on his rookie contract. That isn't the case yet, but given the Bills' unusual cap situation it almost amounts to the same thing. That is, the Bill's can afford to invest more in the D line right now.
HappyDays Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 12 hours ago, vincec said: And the Bills run defense wasn’t really that good last season so I don’t really get what they’re saying. The run defense wasn't elite but it improved significantly from 2017. In 2017 our run defense was 23rd in YPA, 29th in YPG, and 30th in DVOA. This year we were 9th in YPA, 16th in YPG, and 14th in DVOA. We basically went from bottom of the league to slightly above average. That's a huge improvement considering we had a rookie MLB who struggled with his gaps. The only other major change we made on defense was Star. That jump is more than worth a $10 million average salary. His salary will be covered by the annual cap increase. $10 million really isn't that much anymore.
Jerome007 Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 12:05 PM, SWATeam said: I love what the Ravens do with Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce. Beef up the middle makes everything else easier, IMO. I don't think anyone is saying having Star or some good DT is a bad thing! Just that in a salary cap sport, overpaying for a player is not a good deal for the team overall.
YattaOkasan Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 31 minutes ago, Jerome007 said: I don't think anyone is saying having Star or some good DT is a bad thing! Just that in a salary cap sport, overpaying for a player is not a good deal for the team overall. But the point a lot of folks are making is that we aren't up against the cap at the moment. So by this logic its not really a terrible thing that we are overpaying him which is my opinion.
Jerome007 Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said: But the point a lot of folks are making is that we aren't up against the cap at the moment. So by this logic its not really a terrible thing that we are overpaying him which is my opinion. Not AS critical, but there are a LOT of holes to fill, and that will take quite a few loaded contracts. Just like the Bills were in cap hell in 2018 and will be in cap heaven in 2019, it can also quickly switch the other way around.
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