Startling Star statistic

[ColoradoBills]

18 minutes ago, c-troop said:

Totally agree with you man.

I was in group 1 earlier while looking at his stats and after discussing the bills run defence I concluded that I overlooked the fact that Edmunds could have still been making some rookie mistakes impacting the Run-D despite having a stellar rookie campaign.
(shedding second level blockers, calling for adjustments)

I would say I'm in your "group 3" as of now, yet we will continue to monitor this topic.

It still concerns me that most major NFL publications are harsh towards him,
and even though his stats don't reflect what he is asked to do (eat blocks) you would expect at least a sack or 2 from the big man and a few more TFL's. 

As far as the speculation, it doesn't take a mathematician to take a peek at Star's stat sheet and see the numbers get smaller each season. 

Yet after watching some film and acknowledging some other possibilities,
I will reserve further judgements until we see this group in action. 
 

 

I don't put too much stock in writers who no/or little real knowledge about the Buffalo Bills.

There are a number of posters here who dedicate much more time on the Bills than a lot of those guys.

I thank them for that and it's why I stay on the site.

 

The seconded bolded is probably a good idea for all of us.

 

[Stallions]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:33 AM, MJS said:

I'm fine with him, but it does seem his paycheck is too large for the role he is playing. Hopefully that doesn't impact us negatively in the future.

 

Anybody know the details of his contract and when the Bills have a good out?

Dead cap is is $18 mil this year - not trade friendly.  Next year it drops to 1/2 of that number.  

[Bookie Man]

Say that 5x fast! 

[Happy]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) No........I am giving you specific statistical evidence of his drop-off.  The eyeball test was that he's a fraction of the physical presence he was at Carolina and it shows up with a HUGE drop-off in the stat sheet.   This isn't a 3-4 with a NT that isn't allowed to make plays.   In this defense both DT's gotta' be able to do some damage.   HE......not Kyle........ was a fraction of his former self. 

 

2) To that point......Kyle was the same guy or better than he had been in 2017..........no drop-off.........he just played about 3%-4% fewer snaps because of better depth at 3T.

 

3) Question.......if you "tie up 2 blockers on every play"........but you play less than 50% of snaps.........aren't you mathematically single blocked?  

 

I'm the first to give credit for dirty work........I defended the much maligned Ted Washington on here and this boards predecessor for years.

 

But as stated above.......the eyeball test was that he wasn't taxing offensive lineman the way he did in Carolina.   He was like a slow motion version of his old self........which is not surprising for a guy his age playing a plugger role for all of those years(and one who knows he just got his last fat chunk of guaranteed $).

 

Star will be 30 this year so for a man who is not of naturally gigantic NT build it might be unreasonable to expect him to get any better.   Ed Oliver or not.   

 

You don't like the Star signing and think his best days are behind him.  Fine, I respect that.  I put heavier weighting on what teammates and coaches say about his role.

Let's see how this season goes.  If the pass rush gets better and teams have a harder time running on us, then Star has a place here.  If these do not happen, then fine, time to cut our losses and move on from Star.

[HOUSE]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:33 AM, BuffaloHokie13 said:

More startling is that McCoy and Clay take up a combined 9% of our cap in 2019. For now.

 

Also, AJ McCarron takes up 1%, FWIW.

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Here is the thread with my previous posts and the pertinent text.  I stand by it being a very bad deal, but Star’s contract isn’t the end of the world.  You just can’t make that kind of mistake/choice very often and still be okay:

 

Quote 1:

The Star signing was terrible.  He’s useless on passing downs so you’re looking at run defender who eats up double teams. Yip. If you think that’s a $10M per year job, then you’re pretty out of touch with the value of players yourself.  And we haven’t even gotten into how front loaded the deal is.  We’d be on the hook for $26M if we cut him after 2 seasons and $33.5M if we cut him after 3. We have to keep him for all 5 seasons to get the $10M per season rate. How is that a defensible contract?

 

Quote 2:

Let’s start with what block eating DTs who are only valuable against the run are getting paid.  Poe, who replaced Star in Carolina.  3/$28M and not nearly as front loaded as Star’s contract.  So what other similar players  in that ballpark?

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/defensive-tackle/

 

The above link is to the contracts of all DTs.  I see Star with the 9th biggest DT contract.  I see Poe on there.  Other than that it seems like the well paid DTs are more complete players.  I wouldn’t mind it if the Bills had paid more for such a player.  But to burn that kind of cap space for that long on any player with those limitations is foolish. 

 

Thread link:

 

 

 

Not to mention the dead money created by moving MD who would be a fine enough plugger til we get to the easy to cut portion of his own deal. 

 

The cap dedicated to run stopping DT is definitely high. 

[BillsFan17]

Bills overpaid for a two down run stuffer who isnt that good of a run stuffer.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Who cares? His cap number did not prevent them from signing anyone. That is all that matters. I would argue get same production at the same cost with Dareus but again its water under the bridge now and just need to move on.  

Worst use of money is DeMarco followed by PED Murphy. With these two, the issue is not the money it is taking up roster spots that could be used more wisely

[c-troop]

1 minute ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Who cares? His cap number did not prevent them from signing anyone. That is all that matters. I would argue get same production at the same cost with Dareus but again its water under the bridge now and just need to move on.  

Worst use of money is DeMarco followed by PED Murphy. With these two, the issue is not the money it is taking up roster spots that could be used more wisely

other players on the team might, and if you could swap him for someone better at the same price... why wouldn't you?

[LSHMEAB]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And yet, he has exactly the same snap count that he had on the Panthers top SB-contending D in 2015. 

Perhaps that snap count is not a sign of declining play.

 

Perhaps you could defend your viewpoint that Star's play is mediocre with something besides his snap count?

 

Or perhaps not.  Please see Happy Gilmore's post above quoting Zo and Frazier on Lotulelei's contributions to the line.  Perhaps he is doing what is asked, and doing it well.

Star was graded as the 100th rated defensive lineman by PFF. That's pretty bad. They do a "decent" job of breaking down film and attempting to decipher assignment. I know PFF is for losers, but I put some stock in that type of indictment. For comparison, Poe was rated as the 69th rated DL without putting up numbers.

 

Maybe it's a biased judgment considering he was the least "productive" defensive lineman in the ENTIRE league based on snap count. 

 

Either way, he's going to be playing a lot this year and I don't think he's a liability as much as he's just not an asset. The contract is irrelevant as he'll be cut by the time the cap becomes an issue.

Edited April 30, 2019 by LSHMEAB

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Star was graded as the 100th rated defensive lineman by PFF. That's pretty bad. They do a "decent" job of breaking down film and attempting to decipher assignment. I know PFF is for losers, but I put some stock in that type of indictment. For comparison, Poe was rated as the 69th rated DL without putting up numbers.

 

Maybe it's a biased judgment considering he was the least "productive" defensive lineman in the ENTIRE league based on snap count. 

 

Either way, he's going to be playing a lot this year and I don't think he's a liability as much as he's just not an asset. The contract is irrelevant as he'll be cut by the time the cap becomes an issue.

 

So we have to agree to disagree on PFF.  I wouldn't say "they're for losers", I'm a stats geek myself and I think PFF does some good stuff at the skill positions.  But when it comes to the trenches - OL and DL - I think they don't pass the sanity check sniff test.  For example, if you look at their OL rankings and compare them to the accomplishments of said OL in terms of passing and rushing output, they don't always line up

"Least productive" by what metric is the question?  If it's tackles for loss etc, if his job is to take up space and take double teams, he's not gonna be productive, but the coaches are gonna be happy feeling he's "doing his job".

 

It's not something you brought up, but I don't give a lot of credibility to Walter Football, either.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Dontari Poe.  He signed for an average of 9.3 million.  Star signed for a 10 million average.

 

Poe got $10.8M guaranteed

 

Star got $26M+ guaranteed

 

It's a dreadful contract.

7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So we have to agree to disagree on PFF.  I wouldn't say "they're for losers", I'm a stats geek myself and I think PFF does some good stuff at the skill positions.  But when it comes to the trenches - OL and DL - I think they don't pass the sanity check sniff test.  For example, if you look at their OL rankings and compare them to the accomplishments of said OL in terms of passing and rushing output, they don't always line up

"Least productive" by what metric is the question?  If it's tackles for loss etc, if his job is to take up space and take double teams, he's not gonna be productive, but the coaches are gonna be happy feeling he's "doing his job".

 

It's not something you brought up, but I don't give a lot of credibility to Walter Football, either.

 

 

So lip service from teammates and coaches is credible.   

 

The very different PFF grades AND conventional stats both no good though?

 

He was a turd last year dude and he's hitting 30 after many years of wrestling with double teams against often bigger OL.............AND he just got his last guaranteed payday.........there is reason to be very critical of this signing. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

So lip service from teammates and coaches is credible.   

The very different PFF grades AND conventional stats both no good though?

 

That's a rather strange interpretation of what I said.  It's almost as though you're being ornery, just to be ornery.  I suspect you know very well that both interior DL and OL are positions that don't necessarily lend themselves to stats.  It depends upon what the coaches are asking of the DL on each play.

 

The point wasn't that "lip service is credible", it's that if Star is being asked to take up double teams, he's not being asked to do things that generate stats, like rush the passer or tackle.  That means he won't be generating "conventional stats".  What the coaches and teammates say, is evidence of what he's been asked to do in their scheme.

 

As far as PFF is concerned, my reservations about how they grade OL and DL have been aired and documented several times previously.  That doesn't mean they're "no good", it means that they're making educated guesses about what a guy's role was on each play - and they're just educated guesses, and it's been pointed out by various OL and DL players before where sometimes PFF gradings are "s*** in their grits" because of how often they're wrong.

As far as your opinion on his contract and his play, you're certainly entitled to both.  I won't even dispute it; I spent far more time watching offense and trying to decode the OL last year, and I found it painful to watch the drop in KW's performance so I didn't focus on it.   For all I know you might be correct.

My point is neither snap count per se nor PFF's grade speak to what Lotulelei's being asked to do in the scheme by the coaches.

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That's a rather strange interpretation of what I said.  It's almost as though you're being ornery, just to be ornery?

 

I suspect you know very well that both interior DL and OL are positions that don't necessarily lend themselves to stats.  It depends upon what the coaches are asking of them on each play.

 

The point wasn't that "lip service is credible", it's that if the guy is being asked to take up double teams, he's not being asked to do things that generate stats, like rush the passer or tackle.  That means he won't be generating "conventional stats".

 

As far as PFF is concerned, my reservations about how they grade OL and DL have been aired and documented several times previously.  That doesn't mean they're "no good", it means that they're making educated guesses about what a guy's role was on each play - and they're just educated guesses. 

 

 

What do you think his production is worth?    

 

I'm not talking about stats.

 

Do you think he's so uniquely talented for McFrazier's special ops 1 tech position that it can be verified neither by eye or stat test whether his contributions are worth $26.5M guaranteed?

 

What's the difference between what Lorax says about Star and what Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman?

 

It just seems like bickering for the sake of bickering...........they clearly overpaid by A LOT and that will be more than clarified soon enough.

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

What do you think his production is worth?    

 

I'm not talking about stats.

 

Do you think he's so uniquely talented for McFrazier's special ops 1 tech position that it can be verified neither by eye or stat test whether his contributions are worth $26.5M guaranteed?

 

What's the difference between what Lorax says about Star and what Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman?

 

It just seems like bickering for the sake of bickering...........they clearly overpaid by A LOT and that will be more than clarified soon enough.

We really shouldn’t be arguing about overpays (or even bringing it up, frankly) for a team that still has a ton of cap space after 8000 FA signings and is currently slated to lead the league in cap space next year with a number closing in on $100 million. I could care less if they make the occasional overpay. It’s the very definition of a red herring given the situation.

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

We really shouldn’t be arguing about overpays (or even bringing it up, frankly) for a team that still has a ton of cap space after 8000 FA signings and is currently slated to lead the league in cap space next year with a number $133 million. I could care less if they make the occasional overpay. It’s the very definition of a red herring given the situation.

 

Wow. All I hear is how they had no cap space last year and the offense was so bad because their hands were tied by all the dead cap. 

 

They traded dareus and signed star. Now it doesn’t matter at all? 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

Wow. All I hear is how they had no cap space last year and the offense was so bad because their hands were tied by all the dead cap. 

 

They traded dareus and signed star. Now it doesn’t matter at all? 

I’m not sure of your point. The cap doesn’t matter for the Bills right now, and the Bills actually TRIED to push cap dollars into the 2018 season with the expectation that they’d be free and clear for the next few seasons (easy to do when you’re not paying a qb or any true star contracts). Check out sportrac for 2020.

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I’m not sure of your point. The cap doesn’t matter for the Bills, and the Bills actually TRIED to push cap dollars into the 2018 season with the expectation that they’d be free and clear for the next few seasons (easy to do when you’re not paying a qb or any true star contracts).

 

Im saying overpaying for star contributed to the cap situation last year. So your assertion it doesn’t matter rings hollow

[dave mcbride]

5 minutes ago, Chemical said:

 

Im saying overpaying for star contributed to the cap situation last year. So your assertion it doesn’t matter rings hollow

No it didn’t, or not really. They were going to be up against it regardless, and anyway they needed a player for that position. Not many players wanted to come to Buffalo last season, and you’re obligated to overpay a little (it was, along with Oakland, the least popular destiantion among polled players). But last year was a wash anyway because they KNEW they were going to face face a cap problem (of their own creation) and planned accordingly. Not signing Star would not have really have changed the situation. Besides, who else was out there? The years that always mattered for Beane and McDermott were the years beginning in 2019.

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

No it didn’t, or not really. They were going to be up against it regardless, and anyway they needed a player for that position. Not many players wanted to come to Buffalo last season, and you’re obligated to overpay a little (it was, along with Oakland, the least popular destiantion among polled players). But last year was a wash anyway because they KNEW they were going to face face a cap problem (of their own creation) and planned accordingly. Not signing Star would not have really have changed the situation. Besides, who else was out there? The years that always mattered for Beane and McDermott were the years beginning in 2019.

 

Fair enough. It doesn’t matter if you severely overpay for a player if you have cap space or if you don’t really have any cap space (as long as you planned that)