Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm not negative about Allen but I'm still waiting for the "debunking."  The OP only said that - according to his personal analysis - Allen may have been more accurate than the other rookie QBs last season.

 

Well, last season is over the other rooks don't provide a good benchmark.  We'd like to see Allen in the same class as Brees, Rodgers, Brady.   And I think it's plain to anyone who's been around football that Allen isn't there yet.  He absolutely does need to get better with his accuracy - among other things.  We're all hoping he will.

 

The myth is that Allen is one of the most inaccurate high 1st round draft picks to come out in years.  That in order to become a legit NFL Franchise QB, he needs to take a lot more steps forward improving his accuracy than the typical rookie QB would.

 

That's the narrative--almost the joke--pushed by national pundits and "experts."

 

That was the myth I was "debunking," not that Allen can't or shouldn't improve his accuracy.

 

Of course he would.

 

But his accuracy as a rookie as compared with the other NFL rookies this year was just fine.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think many would argue with what you say.   However, the real point of the original post is that there is a continuing and popular narrative about Allen since before the draft, and that is that Allen is not an accurate thrower.    Putting aside how you might define accuracy and what you might think is the best evidence of accuracy, the fact is that what is said about regularly about Allen and not said about the other rookies is that Allen must work on his accuracy. 

 

What the OP's analysis shows (doesn't exactly prove, since we can argue about methodology, what's important, etc.) is that a very good argument can be made that Allen is not particularly inaccurate when compared to the other rookies.   He wasn't seeking to prove that Allen is very accurate or even just accurate enough.  What he has shown, pretty effectively, I think, is that if people think Allen is inaccurate, then those people should be saying the same thing about each of the other rookies.   But no one is complaining about the accuracy of the other rookie QBs.  

 

The point is that either (1) all of the rookies have an accuracy problem and all of their coaches and fans should be concerned or (2) Allen's accuracy problem is largely a myth, generated by the talking heads running up to the draft and, as often happens, continues despite actual performance.   People look at the completion percentage and conclude that what they heard about Allen's accuracy must be true.  

 

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem.   I didn't see a guy regularly missing receivers, and I didn't see a guy regularly hurting the receiver's chances to make runs after the catch.   I certainly didn't see receivers turning inaccurate throws into receptions with spectacular catches.   I saw a guy who makes an occasional bad throw and a guy who could improve his precision on some throws, but not a guy who has a problem that should keep him from succeeding in the NFL.  

 

And I think the data set forth in the OP kind of confirms that.  Nobody's howling "accuracy" about any of the other rookies, and Allen did about the same things those guys did.  

 

Sums up the reason I went about this and my conclusion very well.

 

Thank you!

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, Foxx said:

i would feel much better about Allen's prospects if transplant wasn't so rabid about him.

 

After years of constantly defending Tyrod, Allen was just the next man up for transplant.

[hemma]

It would be interesting to check his completion % for the 1st few plays after he scrambles.

May have been my imagination, but it seemed to me like he was missing more often after he scrambled, as if he was gassed and was missing a little on his footwork.

 

I have to admit, I love watching him take off.

[transplantbillsfan]

Maybe we try surrounding Allen with some talent that can actually catch the football and protect him a bit.

 

Positional spending by position of the Bills vs. the remaining 4 playoff teams on average:

[VW82]

47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The myth is that Allen is one of the most inaccurate high 1st round draft picks to come out in years.  That in order to become a legit NFL Franchise QB, he needs to take a lot more steps forward improving his accuracy than the typical rookie QB would.

 

That's the narrative--almost the joke--pushed by national pundits and "experts."

 

That was the myth I was "debunking," not that Allen can't or shouldn't improve his accuracy.

 

Of course he would.

 

But his accuracy as a rookie as compared with the other NFL rookies this year was just fine.

 

I made this point earlier in the thread but it appears to have been lost in all the replies...I don't think your analysis debunks the accuracy claims. It debunks the claim that he throws a greater percentage of uncatchable balls than other rookies. Your analysis assumes that a ball thrown late and 100 MPH at a receiver's shoe lace is essentially the same as one thrown on time and hits the receiver in stride. Both are technically catchable. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis and concluded that Josh threw a greater percentage of "off target throws" than anyone else in the NFL, including the rookies. It's unclear how much their version of an off target throw differs from your uncatchable throw. 

 

Anyways, as someone who did a truncated version of this (and got killed for it), you have my appreciation and sympathy. I don't agree with your methodology as I understand it, but your conclusion is interesting nonetheless, and I'm prepared to take it at face value. Nice work.   

Edited January 17, 2019 by VW82

[oldmanfan]

4 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I made this point earlier in the thread but it appears to have been lost in all the replies...I don't think your analysis debunks the accuracy claims. It debunks the claim that he throws a greater percentage of uncatchable balls than other rookies. Your analysis assumes that a ball thrown late and 100 MPH at a receiver's shoe lace is essentially the same as one thrown on time and hits the receiver in stride. Both are technically catchable. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

 

PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis and concluded that Josh threw a greater percentage of "off target throws" than anyone else in the NFL, including the rookies. It's unclear how much their version of an off target throw differs from your uncatchable throw. 

 

Anyways, as someone who did a truncated version of this (and got killed for it), you have my appreciation and sympathy. I don't agree with your methodology as I understand it, but your conclusion is interesting nonetheless, and I'm prepared to take it at face value. Nice work.   

Refer to my previous comments in this thread.  Many people confuse accuracy with precision and that includes folks like PFF.  If you throw a ball at a WR and it comes in say at knee level that is accurate.  But it is not precise.   Precise would be putting it right on the guy's hands as he's running so he can make YAC.  Allen is accurate as are the other rookies as indicated by the OP.  But he could stand to be more precise along with his accuracy.  The best QBs have both high accuracy and precision.

[C.Biscuit97]

12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Maybe we try surrounding Allen with some talent that can actually catch the football and protect him a bit.

 

Positional spending by position of the Bills vs. the remaining 4 playoff teams on average:

They traded for Benjamin and Matthews, traded up for Zay (instead of JuJu or Kupp), and drafted Ray Ray over ESB.  

[Veneno]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't think many would argue with what you say.   However, the real point of the original post is that there is a continuing and popular narrative about Allen since before the draft, and that is that Allen is not an accurate thrower.    Putting aside how you might define accuracy and what you might think is the best evidence of accuracy, the fact is that what is said about regularly about Allen and not said about the other rookies is that Allen must work on his accuracy. 

 

What the OP's analysis shows (doesn't exactly prove, since we can argue about methodology, what's important, etc.) is that a very good argument can be made that Allen is not particularly inaccurate when compared to the other rookies.   He wasn't seeking to prove that Allen is very accurate or even just accurate enough.  What he has shown, pretty effectively, I think, is that if people think Allen is inaccurate, then those people should be saying the same thing about each of the other rookies.   But no one is complaining about the accuracy of the other rookie QBs.  

 

The point is that either (1) all of the rookies have an accuracy problem and all of their coaches and fans should be concerned or (2) Allen's accuracy problem is largely a myth, generated by the talking heads running up to the draft and, as often happens, continues despite actual performance.   People look at the completion percentage and conclude that what they heard about Allen's accuracy must be true.  

 

I don't think Allen has an accuracy problem.   I didn't see a guy regularly missing receivers, and I didn't see a guy regularly hurting the receiver's chances to make runs after the catch.   I certainly didn't see receivers turning inaccurate throws into receptions with spectacular catches.   I saw a guy who makes an occasional bad throw and a guy who could improve his precision on some throws, but not a guy who has a problem that should keep him from succeeding in the NFL.  

 

And I think the data set forth in the OP kind of confirms that.  Nobody's howling "accuracy" about any of the other rookies, and Allen did about the same things those guys did.  

HHAHAHAHAHA

[C.Biscuit97]

59 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The myth is that Allen is one of the most inaccurate high 1st round draft picks to come out in years.  That in order to become a legit NFL Franchise QB, he needs to take a lot more steps forward improving his accuracy than the typical rookie QB would.

 

That's the narrative--almost the joke--pushed by national pundits and "experts."

 

That was the myth I was "debunking," not that Allen can't or shouldn't improve his accuracy.

 

Of course he would.

 

But his accuracy as a rookie as compared with the other NFL rookies this year was just fine.

When was the last top 10 qb who was a 56% passer from a sub power 5 conference?  It’s not a made up narrative.

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

When was the last top 10 qb who was a 56% passer from a sub power 5 conference?  It’s not a made up narrative.

Really this is the first time I've heard of this issue with his college stats and the school he went to.?

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Really this is the first time I've heard of this issue with his college stats and the school he went to.?

While I appreciate the efforts of the OP, I think the skeptics are hoping for a time when his completion percentage speaks for itself and such threads are unnecessary.

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, Warcodered said:

Really this is the first time I've heard of this issue with his college stats and the school he went to.?

I just think some Bills’ fans think there is some giant conspiracy against the 56% passer from Wyoming who completed 52% of his passes.  

 

Again, if he was on the Jets, we would be ripping him.  All the talent in the world but no matter how you try to shape things, he needs to get much better at this.  

[Stank_Nasty]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

In games started AND finished, Josh Allen is .500.

 

So is Mayfield.

point being he used a quote from parcells to reinforce is idiotic point..... when the quote literally did just the opposite.

[Stank_Nasty]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I just think some Bills’ fans think there is some giant conspiracy against the 56% passer from Wyoming who completed 52% of his passes.  

 

Again, if he was on the Jets, we would be ripping him.  All the talent in the world but no matter how you try to shape things, he needs to get much better at this.  

this is completely false. maybe the everyday average fan that pays attention only to the media(or you)….

 

I live in the tri-state area, erie pa, where the fans are split pretty evenly between browns bills and steelers(slightly "stiller" heavy)….. and every other knowledgeable fan of other teams that I know in this area, that actually pays attention, has told me they think things are looking up for allen after the last half the of season.

 

i'm sure you'll scoff at that, and fight it tooth and nail because that's your thing....but that's the pulse I've gotten around here.

 

if I saw allen do what he did in the 2nd half of the season for a division rival, I would be worried. he obviously needs big strides in areas but I would be worried.

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

When was the last top 10 qb who was a 56% passer from a sub power 5 conference?  

 

Mahomes is the only QB from the Big 12 to ever win an NFL playoff game. He is also the only air raid QB to make it in the NFL at all. I used that argument against him last year and I was wrong. It is very unlikely that any given college QB will be successful. Relying on one metric to judge who will succeed or not isn't going to work regardless of the history. I would argue that only the last 5 years of data is meaningful anyways. College football has changed a lot in recent years and so has the NFL. 56% passers from sub power 5 conferences are not normally drafted in the 1st round. You're operating off of a nonexistent sample size.

[VW82]

35 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Refer to my previous comments in this thread.  Many people confuse accuracy with precision and that includes folks like PFF.  If you throw a ball at a WR and it comes in say at knee level that is accurate.  But it is not precise.   Precise would be putting it right on the guy's hands as he's running so he can make YAC.  Allen is accurate as are the other rookies as indicated by the OP.  But he could stand to be more precise along with his accuracy.  The best QBs have both high accuracy and precision.

 

An accurate throw is one that hits the receiver in the numbers (i.e. a bulls eye). A throw that hits him in the knees is less accurate. A throw that hits him in his shoe is even less accurate than the one at the knees.

 

Precision refers to the deviations of his throws from one another. If all of Josh's throws were at knee level, he'd be very precise (though perhaps not as accurate as we'd like).  The fact Josh had issues throwing in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his lack of precision, and the degree to which he was in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his issues with accuracy (though OP didn't get into that besides tracking uncatchables). 

 

I've posted this before, but here's the visual representation. 

 

 

Having read both the PFF and ESPN articles, I can't tell whether they're confusing accuracy and precision. It's possible they are though I doubt it. If I missed the smoking gun please feel free to point it out. So far all I've read are accusations. Specifically, I believe they were talking about percentage of off target throws - that's a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. It would be better if someone could give average distance from the bulls eye for all these guys, or put them all on a dart board like above.  

 

Edit: also, OP didn't conclude that Allen and the other rookies were accurate. He concluded that Allen was as accurate as the other rookies. He didn't do an analysis comparing rookie accuracy to the rest of the NFL QBs.

 

Edited January 17, 2019 by VW82

[Green Lightning]

On 1/15/2019 at 9:04 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) that was a lot of work so I salute you

 

2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl.  When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault?  I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else?

 

3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs.  The 60% was higher than their career average.  

 

4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit.  He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season.  Did he suddenly get better?  Or does Luck throw a more catchable football?  This is a thing posters overlook.  As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball.  This league is about touch.  What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes.  Allen hasn’t shown that.

 

allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old.  He isn’t that accurate.  Accept it.  He needs to improve.  Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs.  But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. 

 It seems that people keep making, woulda, coulda, shoulda scenarios around Josh's completion percentage. I just think it is what it is. Doesn't mean he won't be good,  it just is what it is.

Edited January 17, 2019 by Green Lightning

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

An accurate throw is one that hits the receiver in the numbers (i.e. a bulls eye). A throw that hits him in the knees is less accurate. A throw that hits him in his shoe is even less accurate than the one at the knees.

 

Precision refers to the deviations of his throws from one another. If all of Josh's throws were at knee level, he'd be very precise (though perhaps not as accurate as we'd like).  The fact Josh had issues throwing in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his lack of precision, and the degree to which he was in front, behind, high, low, and otherwise is evidence of his issues with accuracy (though OP didn't get into that besides tracking uncatchables). 

 

I've posted this before, but here's the visual representation. 

 

 

Having read both the PFF and ESPN articles, I can't tell whether they're confusing accuracy and precision. It's possible they are though I doubt it. If I missed the smoking gun please feel free to point it out. So far all I've read are accusations. Specifically, I believe they were talking about percentage of off target throws - that's a(n imperfect) measure of accuracy. It would be better if someone could give average distance from the bulls eye for all these guys, or put them all on a dart board like above.  

 

You have the diagram right but the interpretation wrong.  I've posted the same one.  When you hit a guy in the legs vs. chest it is the lower left hand diagram, high accuracy but low precision.  Allen and others need to be more precise, less so accurate.

 

Hitting the bulls eye every time is high accuracy but importantly high precision.

[C.Biscuit97]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes is the only QB from the Big 12 to ever win an NFL playoff game. He is also the only air raid QB to make it in the NFL at all. I used that argument against him last year and I was wrong. It is very unlikely that any given college QB will be successful. Relying on one metric to judge who will succeed or not isn't going to work regardless of the history. I would argue that only the last 5 years of data is meaningful anyways. College football has changed a lot in recent years and so has the NFL. 56% passers from sub power 5 conferences are not normally drafted in the 1st round. You're operating off of a nonexistent sample size.

That’s kinda the point.  Guys like Allen don’t get drafted that high and if they do, they were dominant.  He wasn’t.  

 

And i I hear the Mahomes stat.  Misleading because the conference switched.  And all things being equal, I’d bet on the guy with 50 tds and awesome physical skills in a power 5 conference over the guy who didn’t make his make his all league team in the MWC with awesome physical skills.

 

hopefully Allen will the complete exception to all the overwhelming evidence that we have had.