oldmanfan Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, Warcodered said: I don't know I think accuracy is making that throw and precision is making it consistently or I suppose missing in the same way. I would disagree.
Warcodered Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, oldmanfan said: I would disagree. Okay lets say I tell you to hit a target and you hit it that would be accurate. Then lets say I tell you to do it 10 times and you hit it 10 times that's accurate and precise. On the other hand if you miss all 10 times but hit the same spot that's still precise just not accurate.
LSHMEAB Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, Shaw66 said: Hey, guys, I know I'm jumping late, but I think this is an interesting point, and I have a slightly different take. I believe the Bills admitted later in the season that they were working on Allen to check down more often, despite the fact that Allen was hitting on a lot downfield. The Bills' philosophy is to make every play a positive play, every play. And the way to do that is to take the high percentage pass. We saw Allen do it a few times late in the season. If I'm right about that, then the Bills fully expect that when Allen checks down as much as they want, his completion percentage will go up and his yards per catch will go down. In other words, I think the Bills will trade some yards on big plays for success on more plays. That means a lot of the individual stats are less important than we think. In other words, piling up a lot of yards isn't the most important thing. "He's gotta hit the bunnies" as the top mod would say. There were too many occasions in which his ball placement on short/intermediate routes didn't allow the (admittedly poor) WR/TE group to catch and run. He can hit 3's from 8 feet behind the line, but has trouble with layups. I'm sure that'll be his primary focus in the offseason. 1
Lieutenant Aldo Raine Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 After watching some of these playoff games this past weekend with some of the best QBs in the league; I saw quite a few woeful throws and I kept thinking if Josh had thrown a ball like that, he would be skewered by the commentators and others alike based on a narrative. Only thing he can do is throw and play his way out of that narrative. Winning cures most things. 2
oldmanfan Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Warcodered said: Okay lets say I tell you to hit a target and you hit it that would be accurate. Then lets say I tell you to do it 10 times and you hit it 10 times that's accurate and precise. On the other hand if you miss all 10 times but hit the same spot that's still precise just not accurate. It would depend how big the target is. If you're throwing a football say from 20 yards and your target is a foot wide, you hit it every time you are both accurate and precise. If the target is 5 feet wide and you hit it 10 times but all over the target you're accurate (although not as accurate as the first scenario) but you're not precise. Your last statement is dead on. Your miss it ten times and miss in the exact same spot you're precise but you have terrible accuracy. Edited January 15, 2019 by oldmanfan
transplantbillsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Author Posted January 15, 2019 8 hours ago, Bills2ref said: Wouldn’t it be a good thing to have the lowest percentage of interceptable passes? Yes, that's why I put Mayfield at #1 and Mayfield at #5. I said I was putting them in order of best to worst.
Warcodered Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: It would depend how big the target is. If you're throwing a football say from 20 yards and your target is a foot wide, you hit it every time you are both accurate and precise. If the target is 5 feet wide and you hit it 10 times but all over the target you're accurate (although not as accurate as the first scenario) but you're not precise. Your last statement is dead on. Your miss it ten times and miss in the exact same spot you're precise but you have terrible accuracy. Right I think we see it the same way I was just confused with your wording before. The part about the target is where it kind of gets relative what your specifically measuring and to what level. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Author Posted January 15, 2019 8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: 1) that was a lot of work so I salute you 2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl. When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault? I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history. At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else? 3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs. The 60% was higher than their career average. 4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit. He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season. Did he suddenly get better? Or does Luck throw a more catchable football? This is a thing posters overlook. As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball. This league is about touch. What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes. Allen hasn’t shown that. allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old. He isn’t that accurate. Accept it. He needs to improve. Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs. But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. If Allen continues to have a 52% completion % for the next 2 years he's guaranteed to be our starting QB--I don't think we'll move on from him for at least a couple more years, no matter what--then we can start to blame him. But that will likely be when we've upgraded his weapons. But again, just watch the plays. His completion percentage belies his accuracy.
oldmanfan Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Warcodered said: Right I think we see it the same way I was just confused with your wording before. The part about the target is where it kind of gets relative what your specifically measuring and to what level. Agreed. That's why completion percentage doesn't measure accuracy. You have to know where the QB intends the throw to go to know how accurate and/or precise a throw is. 1
GunnerBill Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: You could argue they're inaccurate, but I wasn't judging ball placement, just whether they were catchable. All of his completions were catchable, regardless of ball placement. I don't disagree with your assessment, but judging "catchable vs. uncatchable" is, I feel, significantly less subjective than something like ball placement. Indeed. But catchable does equal accurate. That makes the same mistake as the completion percentage does. You used to make the same error with a certain former Bills QB too. A ball that is two yards behind a receiver and he has to stop his momentum entirely to come back and catch is an inaccurate ball that has take away YAC opportunities. My general view is that while Allen isn't ever going to be a precision passer and will likely always have some unexplainable natural inaccuracy if he plays as he did down the stretch he can accurate enough - Big Ben and Cam are the two examples of successful guys that reminds me of. Jackson's inaccuracy issues were more fundamental and actually were a regression from him 2017 college film. His passing in the NFL so far has more resembled his 2016 college film. Now his ceiling is a guy who can win you some games because he is a phenomenal athlete and not every team have the personnel to do what the Chargers did to him... but the Ravens were just trying to win this year and took no time to develop him as a passer. They need to try and do that next year. The advantage of the 6-10 lost season for the Bills was results mattered a bit less and that gave them some space to try and develop Josh's passing.
PlayoffsPlease Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 (edited) Very good analysis. But a big factor that can't really be known is what passes were not made. Tom Brady and Drew Brees trust their accuracy enough to through into very very tight windows. That may very well may be the most important skill a QB can have. If a QB holds back on 8 pass attempts a game that become "throw aways" or "runs" or checkdowns, that would be enough to the difference between winning and losing. Edited January 15, 2019 by PlayoffsPlease
HappyDays Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, Shaw66 said: The point is are you good enough for the NFL, and is you OVERALL package really good. Put another way, you can grade all kinds of QB skillsets - accuracy, ball handling, pre-snap recognition, pocket presence, scrambling - all kinds of stuff. Every successful QB is better in some categories than in others, but the fact that they are weaker in some category doesn't mean they're bad quarterbacks. Brady is a pretty bad scrambler, but no one is saying he can't play QB in the NFL. What IS necessary, as you say, is that you have to meet the minimum in every category. Beyond that, you need to be really good in enough categories so that the total package is really good, even if one category is weak. This is an excellent point. I was thinking about this exact point last week. Some thread was discussing how you define a franchise QB. For me I would separate a QB's skill set into 5 areas: Arm strength Mobility Pocket presence/movement Accuracy Reading the field I think a franchise QB should be top 5 in one of those categories, top 10 in another, and bottom 10 in no more than 1. Elite QBs will be top 5 in 3 of those categories. Right now Allen is already top 5 in arm strength and mobility. I would say right now he is bottom 10 accuracy and reading the field, and about average pocket movement. In other words he isn't quite a franchise QB and he's closer than you'd think to being elite. I don't expect him to ever be top 5 in accuracy or pocket movement. But if he can be top 5 in reading the field he will be elite.
VW82 Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) When PFF and ESPN Stats & Info did this exact same analysis, they concluded that Josh was responsible for the greatest percentage of off target throws in the whole league. I suspect their methodology for what constitutes an accurate pass was a little different. Specifically, I don't think you can say that just because the rookie QBs hit the dart board (i.e. catchable) that means they were accurate. Some guys, like Baker, are hitting the bulls eye with regularity whereas others, like Allen, are all over the dart board. Perhaps that explains the vastly different result you got as you seemed to ignore that part on purpose. It is interesting that his rate of uncatchable balls was about the same as the other rookies though. Edited January 16, 2019 by VW82
Veneno Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: To hell with accuracy. If Allen can continue to take what the defense gives him with his legs he won't ever need to be a 60%+ completion guy. We can win with him at 58-59% completion. With that said, I don't think it is unreasonable to think he wont get to 60-62% if we dial back the long pass attempts a bit and he just progresses a little as he should with more experience. And how about this stat: Allen 11 Games Started 2 4QC's 3 GWD's 7.1 ypr Darnold 13 Games Started 1 4QC 1GWD 3.1ypr One's a play maker and makes things happen. The other not as much. Darnold's actually not that bad. I think his one 4th QC was against us unfortunately and he did make a great play with his legs keeping the play alive. He does have some of that ability. But I don't think he will ever be on Allen's play making level. He won't put pressure on a defense like Allen will. This dude here is probably the biggest homer I seen on the internet. Darnolds had more TD than INT and almost hit 60% as a rookie. Allen barely hit the 50% throwing more INT than TD. Allen is great RB and a terrible passer and if you dont see it, you are a homer. Darnolds pocket awareness and progression is light and day compare to Allen. Look up Parcells's famous phrase "you are what your record say you are" and stop making excuse. 1
Shaw66 Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, HappyDays said: This is an excellent point. I was thinking about this exact point last week. Some thread was discussing how you define a franchise QB. For me I would separate a QB's skill set into 5 areas: Arm strength Mobility Pocket presence/movement Accuracy Reading the field I think a franchise QB should be top 5 in one of those categories, top 10 in another, and bottom 10 in no more than 1. Elite QBs will be top 5 in 3 of those categories. Right now Allen is already top 5 in arm strength and mobility. I would say right now he is bottom 10 accuracy and reading the field, and about average pocket movement. In other words he isn't quite a franchise QB and he's closer than you'd think to being elite. I don't expect him to ever be top 5 in accuracy or pocket movement. But if he can be top 5 in reading the field he will be elite. Well, we agree in theory here, but I tend to agree with those who would RANK the appropriate skills sets (yours is a pretty good list, certainly good enough for argument's sake). Most people would say accuracy is most important. So being bottom 10 in accuracy could be fatal or certainly more difficult to overcome than some other low grade. Maybe put another way, the minimum performance for accuracy must be something like top 15 in the league. I mean, you'd better be accurate. I just don't agree that Allen's accuracy is all that bad.
WideNine Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 15 hours ago, MJS said: Anyone who actually watches the kid can see he has the potential to be a good QB. The question we all ask ourselves is whether or not he will realize that potential. But I do not have a problem with his accuracy. I saw him make many wow throws and very accurate throws throughout the year. I know he has the ability to be very accurate. As he progresses in fundamentals, experience, etc. I have no doubt the narrative of his accuracy issues will go away. There are a lot of folks and the media that would prefer that the Bills stay in the cellar, same with the Browns. I think both organizations have found their guy to build around and it is about time. What surprised me watching the clips (outside of the obvious mugging of our receivers) was how little separation that group was getting, and how the allegedly inaccurate Allen was putting the ball time and time again where only the Bills receiver had the chance to make a play on the ball. Usually with the pocket collapsing around him and Allen scrambling to avoid defenders. Also can't get over how he can throw so many accurate passes from so many bad platforms. He rarely has time to set and step into throws, can't imagine too many of his passes being off if our line gives him more time next year to step into his throws. Of course it would help if they could also pick up a player or two who can get open AND catch the ball. 2
Shaw66 Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, WideNine said: There are a lot of folks and the media that would prefer that the Bills stay in the cellar, same with the Browns. I think both organizations have found their guy to build around and it is about time. What surprised me watching the clips (outside of the obvious mugging of our receivers) was how little separation that group was getting, and how the allegedly inaccurate Allen was putting the ball time and time again where only the Bills receiver had the chance to make a play on the ball. Usually with the pocket collapsing around him and Allen scrambling to avoid defenders. Also can't get over how he can throw so many accurate passes from so many bad platforms. He rarely has time to set and step into throws, can't imagine too many of his passes being off if our line gives him more time next year to step into his throws. Of course it would help if they could also pick up a player or two who can get open AND catch the ball. Not that the Bills have world beaters as receivers, but I think often the separation problem has a different cause - the run game. The play fake simply isn't too credible when you pretty much can't run the ball. A lot of what people think of as good separation is caused simply because a good running game forces defenses to put 7-8 in the box to stop it. When that happens, defenders tend to play off the ball more, and receivers get better separation. With a lousy running game, teams can afford to keep a safety or two back, which allows the corners to play up. Like you, I saw a lot excellent throws and not many real head scratchers. When the team gets better around him, his numbers will be fine. 2
PlayoffsPlease Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, Veneno said: This dude here is probably the biggest homer I seen on the internet. Darnolds had more TD than INT and almost hit 60% as a rookie. Allen barely hit the 50% throwing more INT than TD. Allen is great RB and a terrible passer and if you dont see it, you are a homer. Darnolds pocket awareness and progression is light and day compare to Allen. Look up Parcells's famous phrase "you are what your record say you are" and stop making excuse. You seem slow
reddogblitz Posted January 16, 2019 Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) 15 hours ago, Niagara Dude said: After watching that, i would replace all WR'S on this team other than Foster. The Bills need to focus on getting OL and WR'S, they most likely need to get one playmaking LB and they should be good on defensive side of ball. we need to get 3 guys better than Foster in this off season in order for Allen to have a chance to develop. 3 hours ago, Veneno said: This dude here is probably the biggest homer I seen on the internet. Darnolds had more TD than INT and almost hit 60% as a rookie. Allen barely hit the 50% throwing more INT than TD. Allen is great RB and a terrible passer and if you dont see it, you are a homer. Darnolds pocket awareness and progression is light and day compare to Allen. Look up Parcells's famous phrase "you are what your record say you are" and stop making excuse. Bill also said saying a guy has potential means he ain't done nuthin' yet. Edited January 16, 2019 by reddogblitz
transplantbillsfan Posted January 16, 2019 Author Posted January 16, 2019 13 hours ago, TheElectricCompany said: Geez, this thread reminds me of Moneyball. If he's an accurate thrower, why doesn't he throw accurately? He does. That's the point. Ball placement isn't always ideal, but the majority of his Incompletions were catchable by NFL standards. Can you agree the YouTube clip of all those passes were catchable? Now imagine we had a decent WR corps that could make half of those catches.
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