Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, row_33 said:

I don't see even 1% reason for comparison with Cam Newton

 

I see more Steve Young as a runner who is going to learn to stand in the pocket (like Mahomes and Roethlisberger) and wisely cut down on the scramble as he ages.

 

which may be a silly stretch, so sue me

 

 

Good compariosn

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

 

the reduction of risk would be more welcome as we go forward and he learns to stand in the pocket like a real NFL QB

 

 

He already does but still does bail early too many times.  He just needs to be more consistent.  

[racketmaster]

12 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

If Newton is the ceiling, which seems to be a common theme around here, is that good enough? I think you could make a case that it isn't. 

Carolina has invested in quite a few weapons for Cam and he's still been a pretty average passer for 7/8 seasons. 

 

I think their  playing style is similar but there personalities are different and that is what I am banking on will be the difference between these two as far as career trajectories go. Newton has always had and pursues interests outside of football in terms of fashion etc. There is nothing wrong with that per se but I just don’t get the sense that Newton is fully committed to his team and getting better as a player. There has to be some competitive drive to make a player continually push themselves to improve and I think Newton lacks some of that drive. You can see that he has improved very little as a passer since entering the league and his physical skills will only continue to diminish. I see Allen as more driven and much more willing to do what it takes for the team and for himself to get better. Allen appears to be a much better leader (no sulking on sidelines) and he has full backing of his team. Remember Steve Smith questioned Cams leadership early on and that has not been an issue with Allen. So I believe Allen can and will improve more as a passer as the years go on and he will be an excellent leader on the team. That could be enough to make Allen and the Bills regular contenders as Newton and the Panthers have been close even with his faults. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by racketmaster

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I may be off base here but another way to think about accuracy versus completion percentage is that one is almost entirely on the QB while the other relies as much on the offensive scheme being run; the defensive scheme being run (prevent defenses are great for boosting ones completion %) & the quality of the receivers.

 

Another way to look at it is let's say I play WR for the NO Saints this week in practice.  We can all agree that Drew Brees has the highest % completion in the NFL.  So stick me out there and get one of the Saints CB's to cover me.  After throwing 100 balls to me Brees will likely have a % completion average of about 0.  Does that mean he was inaccurate?  Of course not.   

Accuracy can only be measured by giving a QB a specific target and asking him to hit the target.  If he surrounds the target but doesn't hit it right on the nose he's accurate.  He's not terribly precise but he's accurate. 

Completion percentage as you so rightly point out has considerably more variables associated with it.  It would be like comparing accuracy of a rifle shooter firing at a stationary target vs. one that is randomly moved.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

If Newton is the ceiling, which seems to be a common theme around here, is that good enough? I think you could make a case that it isn't. 

Carolina has invested in quite a few weapons for Cam and he's still been a pretty average passer for 7/8 seasons. 

 

 

Outside of Steve smith their leading receiver every year is almost always Greg Olsen.  They finally invested in WR more with DJ moore.  Benjamin/Funchess were low catch rate guys with no speed.  Hopefully Buffalo is getting away from that strategy, as i think Carolina is moving on from that as well.

 

Cam Newton is a former MVP - His team has made the playoffs in 4 of 6 years and he typically has his offense in the top half to top 10 in the league.  He's probably also playing banged up more than most QBs during that period.

[TheElectricCompany]

11 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

That would be an inaccurate description of what we all saw AFTER Allen came back from his injury. 

 

Got it. I wonder if the stats support that theory. Of course, they don't.

I'd love for stats to be in his corner for once, besides "throws the ball in air really far". 

 

 

Edited January 15, 2019 by TheElectricCompany

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said:

 

Got it. I wonder if the stats support that theory. Of course, they don't.

That's Josh Allen in a nutshell. Near the bottom in every statistical category except "throws the ball in the air really far". 

 

 

 

 

We did try quite a few receivers out there this year - with varying degrees of futility.

 

Benjamin had a 37% catch rate on 62 targets.  Clay was sub 60.... zay was 55 (still a massive upgrade over 2017).  Pryor caught 2 of 8 targets.  Holmes was at 52.2.

 

Nobody was pulling in 50/50 balls.  Benjamin was dogging routes.  Some of these guys had bad hands.

 

I get that these are excuses - but in the sample size of 320 attempts (25 completions adds almost 8% to his number) they kind of add up.  Inconsistent play and effort, as well as people just trying to learn the playbook. 

 

Hopefully a full camp as the starter, improved line play, and improved relationship with his receivers will boost this number.  

 

[C.Biscuit97]

15 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

I think their  playing style is similar but there personalities are different and that is what I am banking on will be the difference between these two as far as career trajectories go. Newton has always had and pursues interests outside of football in terms of fashion etc. There is nothing wrong with that per se but I just don’t get the sense that Newton is fully committed to his team and getting better as a player. There has to be some competitive drive to make a player continually push themselves to improve and I think Newton lacks some of that drive. You can see that he has improved very little as a passer since entering the league and his physical skills will only continue to diminish. I see Allen as more driven and much more willing to do what it takes for the team and for himself to get better. Allen appears to be a much better leader (no sulking on sidelines) and he has full backing of his team. Remember Steve Smith questioned Cams leadership early on and that has not been an issue with Allen. So I believe Allen can and will improve more as a passer as the years go on and he will be an excellent leader on the team. That could be enough to make Allen and the Bills regular contenders as Newton and the Panthers have been close even with his faults. 

Cam Newton is completely undervalued on this board.  He is a top 10 QB.  If Allen is 75% as good as Newton, it will be a great pick.  Cam, despite his flaws, has been really, really good since college.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

You aren't debunking. You're disagreeing.

 

I do appreciate the effort. Impressive.

 

As you say, though, it's subjective. And your conclusions disagree with everyone else's. And we all know how you feel about Josh Allen (and Tyrod and another one or two before that). You are a huge fan, to the point of apparent wackiness at times, of whichever Bills QB is your fave.

 

As for your methodology, you again have the problem that you have showed over and over in your QB studies through the years. You give only your total conclusion, not breaking things down at all. I've pointed this out to you before, and you've simply ignored it each and every time, telling me it's not necessary to break things down. In fact, it's extremely necessary, because it means the only way to check your work is to exactly duplicate it and look at every play of the season. Effectively unrepeatable. 

 

Except of course by the experts and people who put in the effort because they're paid to do so. Those folks have already already done the same work, and as you yourself point out, they disagree with your conclusions.

 

If you'd broken it down, giving totals for each game for instance, it would've been easy for someone on these boards to check a game or two and see if your per game totals were on target. But as is your method, you don't provide details - no gross numbers, no game by game breakdowns, no nothing except your percentage conclusions - making checks all but impossible.

 

Thanks for the effort. If you'd given a reasonable chance to check, I'd have done so. But you never do, though I've asked before and it wouldn't have required much extra effort. It's not surprising you're not now.

 

Which leaves no choice but to point out that as you yourself point out, you're a huge Josh Allen fan and you're disagreeing with everyone else who did the work. Their work is just more believable, as they don't much care how the tallies come out.

 

I do admire - seriously - your willingness to put in this huge amount of work. As I said, very impressive.

 

I have overall numbers on the season along with game by game numbers. I don't have specific details on which throw I thought was catchable and which wasn't, but we can talk individual throws if you want.

 

I'll post those numbers later.

 

As you can see, the OP was time consuming. You're going to see that the math checks out as far as %s go.

 

 

I'm disagreeing with folks like Fahey and PFF because I actually watched all the plays from those 5 QBs and collated data according to what my eyes saw. It's subjective for me just as it is for them, why do you think they have different numbers?

 

And on another note, VERY aware of my subjectivity, I feel I erred on the side of uncatchable with Allen and on the side of catchable with the other QBs.

 

One thing this exercise actually made me regret was every time I forked out money to PFF and the couple times I bought Fahey's QB catalogue.

 

With gamepass available, it's much better to do your own analysis.

 

I'd encourage you to do the same 

[teef]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Completion percentage still doesn't equal accuracy. And that doesn't mean Allen is blameless. If he doesn't take an easy checkdown or he misreads the field, his completion percentage will suffer for reasons that have nothing to do with accuracy but are nevertheless his fault. The point of the OP isn't that Allen is a perfect QB, it's that his accuracy concerns are overblown.

I stick by what I've said - Allen will never improve his accuracy significantly from where it is now, but it is already good enough. What he needs to improve is his ability to read the field and make quick throws. He was less accurate than usual in the final game but he had over a 65% completion anyways because he made good reads and his receivers didn't drop the ball. He had one of his most accurate games against Detroit but finished around 50% completion. It isn't as simple as that.

this has been my take as well.  it's never really been allen's accuracy as much as his been his decision making.  not that we haven't seen him throw a number of errant passes, but if he would stop throwing 30 yards plus when it's 3rd and 6, his numbers would improve.  he just doesn't throw a lot of simple, high completion type passes yet.

26 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Allen goes downfield more than any of those QB's.  He's a risk taker.

 

If you're saying there isn't a difference in the throws he makes, it's like saying there isn't a difference between shooting a free throw and a 3 pointer.  

Not to mention, Allen was a rookie.  QB's do not all develop at the same rate.  To say Allen didn't improve as the season went on isn't correct.

exactly.  he loves to go for the gusto.

[row_33]

32 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He already does but still does bail early too many times.  He just needs to be more consistent.  

 

Mahomes has a sixth sense of matadoring in the pocket

 

Allen has lots of potential and lots of room for improvement

 

it's nice to look forward to next season, for a change

 

 

[zonabb]

Didn't read the entire after the first sentence: First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? 

 

The reality is simple. The more accurate a QB is, the more first downs. The more first downs, the more TDs. The more TDs, the more likely you win. The more INTs, the less potential points you score and the higher potential for your opponent to score.

 

Any argument suggesting it's not important is merely an argument in support of the a player you like and not in what it takes to win games. 

 

4 Championship QBs 2018 percentage and the percentage points above Allen's 52.8%:

 

Brady: 65.8 (+13)

Mahomes: 66.0 (+13.2)

Brees: 74.4 (+21.6)

Goff: 64.9 (+12.1)

 

And Goff is 20th in the league! That's how bad Allen was, which was 33/33 of qualified QBs. So if you think that's OK and you can win with that, that's a fallacy you can enjoy.

 

 

[racketmaster]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Cam Newton is completely undervalued on this board.  He is a top 10 QB.  If Allen is 75% as good as Newton, it will be a great pick.  Cam, despite his flaws, has been really, really good since college.

Maybe but I think most football fans agree Cam has been at least an above average qb. At times he has achieved elite level such as 2015. But if we are being honest, Cam has not been a grinder at getting better and he has relied mostly on his immense physical ability as a runner and strong armed passer. However, he has declined some as a quarterback since 2015 as his physical style of play has begun to take its toll. He has not developed enough in the mental aspect of the game and with timing, footwork and anticipation. When his career is all said and done, I think most will agree that he left something on the table. I’m not saying he has to be Brady level driven but if you look at most of the long term successful quarterbacks, they tend to be very driven and always looking to make improvements in their game. I think Allen has some of that drive in him and I believe that will help him long term. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by racketmaster

[C.Biscuit97]

10 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

Maybe but I think most football fans agree Cam has been at least an above average qb. At times he has achieved elite level such as 2015. But if we are being honest, Cam has not been a grinder at getting better and he has relied mostly on his immense physical ability as a runner and strong armed passer. However, he has declined some as a quarterback since 2015 as his physical style of play has begun to take its toll. He has not developed enough in the mental aspect of the game and with timing, footwork and anticipation. When his career is all said and done, I think most will agree that he left something on the table. I’m not saying he has to be Brady level driven but if you look at most of the long term successful quarterbacks, they tend to be very driven and always looking to make improvements in their game. I think Allen has some of that drive in him and I believe that will help him long term. 

Cam had his highest completion % this year at 68%.  And this was with a shoulder issue.  I think he is undervalued here because people don’t like his attitude.  JMo, we are doing Allen a disservice to compare him to Cam.  Cam is awesome.

 

but your point about the physical aspect of the game hurting Newton is very valid.  And it’s something, as great as Allen is at running, he needs to be careful about. No matter how big and strong you are, those hits catch up to you. You still need to win primarily from the pocket.

[racketmaster]

23 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I have overall numbers on the season along with game by game numbers. I don't have specific details on which throw I thought was catchable and which wasn't, but we can talk individual throws if you want.

 

I'll post those numbers later.

 

As you can see, the OP was time consuming. You're going to see that the math checks out as far as %s go.

 

 

I'm disagreeing with folks like Fahey and PFF because I actually watched all the plays from those 5 QBs and collated data according to what my eyes saw. It's subjective for me just as it is for them, why do you think they have different numbers?

 

And on another note, VERY aware of my subjectivity, I feel I erred on the side of uncatchable with Allen and on the side of catchable with the other QBs.

 

One thing this exercise actually made me regret was every time I forked out money to PFF and the couple times I bought Fahey's QB catalogue.

 

With gamepass available, it's much better to do your own analysis.

 

I'd encourage you to do the same 

Great work and probably gives you a much better feel for all of the rookie quarterbacks. I have tried watching at least 3-4 games of each of the other quarterbacks but have not watched every single pass for the entire year and charted each of them. Excellent work. 

 

As much as some may say you are a biased Bills fan, one could also say that much of the media analysis has been biased against Allen. His “lack of accuracy” is a regular topic of discussion and has been focused on more than any of the other quarterbacks. When Allen throws a bad pass it is quickly put on Twitter so that he can be made fun of while I have seen bad passes from the other rookies that never get criticized. The analytics guys are especially invested in Allen’s failure so they can be equally biased when charting throws. 

 

One thing that may add even more value to the work you have done, is to pick 1 or 2 of the experienced elite quarterbacks and chart their throws as well. It might be interesting to see where a few of the top guys stand in relation to the rookies. It could answer the question of how far Allen and the other rookies need to go to get to the top. 

Edited January 15, 2019 by racketmaster

[LSHMEAB]

45 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Allen goes downfield more than any of those QB's.  He's a risk taker.

 

If you're saying there isn't a difference in the throws he makes, it's like saying there isn't a difference between shooting a free throw and a 3 pointer.  

Not to mention, Allen was a rookie.  QB's do not all develop at the same rate.  To say Allen didn't improve as the season went on isn't correct.

Risk taking is fine. Since this thread is predicated on sheer statistics, Allen's YPA is 6.5. Not very good. Now we can point to a whole host of "reasons" for that number, but it's an important statistic and something that needs to drastically improve even if you want to discount completion percentage.

 

If his YPA is up near 8 and his completion percentage is 58 percent, that argument will hold up.

[racketmaster]

2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Cam had his highest completion % this year at 68%.  And this was with a shoulder issue.  I think he is undervalued here because people don’t like his attitude.  JMo, we are doing Allen a disservice to compare him to Cam.  Cam is awesome.

 

but your point about the physical aspect of the game hurting Newton is very valid.  And it’s something, as great as Allen is at running, he needs to be careful about. No matter how big and strong you are, those hits catch up to you. You still need to win primarily from the pocket.

I watched a bunch of Carolina games this year and would be willing to bet his air yards went down from his early years. He was throwing a ton of check downs to McCaffery (the man has double digit targets seemingly every week). He also threw a bunch of short passes and wr screens to Samuel and Moore.  All 3 players are explosive with the ball in their hands and could make plays after the catch so the strategy makes sense. But the amount of easy throws are what made his completion % sky rocket not that he became more accurate. And as you can see the increase in completion % did not cause them to be any better than they had before in terms of wins and losses. 

[CincyBillsFan]

As others have pointed out one of the things forcing Allen to throw downfield was the number of times the offense was in 2nd or 3rd and LONG.  Negative yardage running plays on 1st down; numerous holding penalties and false starts tended to leave the Bills in a lot of long yardage situations.  In fact looking back over Allen's highlights you see excellent pocket presence and accuracy on throws he made on 2nd & 3rd and long.  

 

But if folks want high completion percentages and lots of check down passes re-watch the Anderson/Peterman games where you can gorge yourself on all those 8 yard completions on 3rd & 13!  There's a reason the top QB's have high % completions and YPA:  they have the play makers at TE & RB to turn those dump passes into something electric.  They also have very dangerous deep threats which opens up the check downs.  BTW, I think we're actually doing okay with our deep threats.  Now we have to up the play of our TE's & RB's. 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Love how you didn’t dispute one of my points.  Why are Anderson and Barkley, after like a week with the team, more “accurate” than Allen?  Or that having a rocket doesn’t mean you throw a catchable football?

 

if Allen was on any other team, we would laugh at him and wonder why a team took such an “inaccurate “ qb that high.  He seems like a hard worker and is very exciting.  But despite all the excuses, he is going to need to be a more accurate passer next year. 

 

Were they more accurate or did they have a higher completion percentage? I agree with you that Allen still has some way to go on his accuracy, but I don't love completion percentage as a metric for assessing it.

[racketmaster]

Completion % tells only part of the story in relation to accuracy. There is so much more that goes into the %. How good are the offensive line for protection, how much separation do WRs get, what is the wr/te catching ability and catch radius, what game plan is the offensive coordinator designing. All of the above impacts the qb completion %. If the Bills wanted to get Allen to 70% next year they could by getting better WRs, TEs and pass catching backs and then designing an offense that calls for tons of screens, check downs and quick throws. But completion % does not win games and the Bills would not be taking advantage of any of Allen’s strengths in extending plays and throwing deeper routes. 

 

Here’s another example that I see all the time watching games around the league. It’s something like 3rd and 12 (which happens too much with our lack of running game and penalties) and your qb is obviously throwing. To Allen’s credit he stuck a lot of these 3rd and long throws passed the sticks. Where continually around the league most other quarterbacks take an easy check down of 5 yards and hope the recipient runs for the first down which regularly does not happen. The qb is very content taking the minimal risk and punting. That counts as an easy completion but often does the team no good because they punt. Where Allen attempts to stick a lower percentage throw in order to get the first down. It may adversely impact his completion percentage but if he hits 50% of those on third and longs he is probably doing better than the check down and hope the runner breaks a few tackles play.