JaCrispy Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 This thread makes football not very fun for me... 1
LABILLBACKER Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: My take has always been that Allen will end up averaging around 58-59% completion most seasons. And that will be just fine. While that number is far lower than your typical QB in today's game, Allen does offer a lot of other traits that your typical QB does not. Some years 58-59% completion might not be enough to get us to the playoffs. Other years, 58-59% completion could put him in the MVP race. There really isn't a better comp for Allen right now than Cam Newton. The best player to compare is the one we know the most, Jim Kelly. Jim's first 4 seasons in the NFL his completion % was 59. He didn't reach over 60% until he was 30 years old. Jim's career completion % was 60.1 You don't need 65+ do accomplish great things. If Josh averaged 58-59 that's fine by me.
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said: The best player to compare is the one we know the most, Jim Kelly. Jim's first 4 seasons in the NFL his completion % was 59. He didn't reach over 60% until he was 30 years old. Jim's career completion % was 60.1 You don't need 65+ do accomplish great things. If Josh averaged 58-59 that's fine by me. Problem is, i don't know this for a fact, but I am pretty sure 59-60% completion in the mid to late 80's was probably average for an NFL QB. 58-59% is below average for NFL quarterbacks today. Especially ones considered to be franchise QB's. That is why I think Cam Newton is the best comp. Edit: Check out the link. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1986/passing.htm In the 1986 season, a 59.4% completion percentage by Jim Kelly was good enough to make him the 7th most accurate passer that year. In 2018 that percentage would have had him fourth from last only ahead of the rookies Allen, Rosen and Darnold. Some dude named Eric Hipple lead the league in '86 at 63.0%. That would have ranked 25th in 2018. Edited March 23, 2019 by Sammy Watkins' Rib
Bing Bong Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 16 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: There inevitably had to be SOME subjectivity, but you're vastly overestimating how often I had to do any kind of interpretation of any plays. WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand = Catchable WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and NOT have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand = Uncatchable About the only interpretation of plays I had to do were for back shoulder throws, which were often obvious. And I understand why you wouldn't believe this, but I truly and conscientiously tried to arrive, if anything, on the side of uncatchable with Allen. I don't not believe your numbers I just want to use a data set that comes somewhat close to what you have and be able to run it with more quarterbacks to see what the results mean.
YattaOkasan Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 33 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Problem is, i don't know this for a fact, but I am pretty sure 59-60% completion in the mid to late 80's was probably average for an NFL QB. 58-59% is below average for NFL quarterbacks today. Especially ones considered to be franchise QB's. That is why I think Cam Newton is the best comp. Edit: Check out the link. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/1986/passing.htm In the 1986 season, a 59.4% completion percentage by Jim Kelly was good enough to make him the 7th most accurate passer that year. In 2018 that percentage would have had him fourth from last only ahead of the rookies Allen, Rosen and Darnold. Some dude named Eric Hipple lead the league in '86 at 63.0%. That would have ranked 25th in 2018. So this is a good way to think of why accuracy and completion percentage are different. I don’t think QBs got much more accurate. I think they started targeting a lot more shorter throws. The Dilfer line is that completion percentage is a system and processing stat but not necessarily an accuracy stat
Bing Bong Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 (edited) 18 hours ago, Gugny said: How far did these "catchable" passes go in the air. We endured three years of twisted stats from our own QB. Lamont Jackson is, by far, one of the worst starters in the entire league. Just as Tyrod was. But his stats were purty, too. Yeah I said before I don't think JA's terribly accurate but I don't really care so much as long as he's on the money when necessary. I think we all saw a ton of talent in JA to be excited. So provided he gets Ws we shouldn't be overly concerned over accuracy anyways. He's got enough things going for him and, of course, he's accurate enough.. people talk about him like he's Tim Tebow if he was that inaccurate it would have seriously limited his play last year. I'm fine with Cam Newton abilities and psyched if better. Edited March 23, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P 1
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said: So this is a good way to think of why accuracy and completion percentage are different. I don’t think QBs got much more accurate. I think they started targeting a lot more shorter throws. The Dilfer line is that completion percentage is a system and processing stat but not necessarily an accuracy stat Yeah the game has evolved. I do think it is likely modern day players have increased their accuracy over other generations but i also think play scheming and rule changes have probably had a larger effect on the higher completion percentages we see today. The big takeaway is where a player ranks among his peers. Kelly was top 10 for his era. Allen was dead last in his first season and might remain in the bottom third of NFL quarter backs for most of his career as Cam has up till last year when he surprisingly cracked the top 10 in completion percentage. 1
WideNine Posted March 23, 2019 Posted March 23, 2019 On 2/14/2019 at 4:54 PM, transplantbillsfan said: So I just finished Wentz and put him in the original numbers. Geez he was really great for the 1st 5 games and then close to Rosen level, maybe even worse, after that point. I'm really in disbelief at how many batted/tipped balls I'm seeing from all QBs not named Allen. Is Allen really that much taller than all these other guys? We know his arm is stronger so it gives DBs less opportunity to go after it mid-flight, but it's kinda crazy the amount of tipped/batted balls I'm seeing with all these other QBs. I guess I just assumed with Wentz's comparative size and athleticism to Allen, we'd see that number closer to Allen's number. Allen was pressured on nearly 40% of his drop backs. That was close to, if not the worst in the league. It's a bit of a waste of time to talk accuracy at this stage. There is a reason why the staff at OBD retooled both the line and coaching there. QBs forced to throw while under pressure generally do pretty poorly - we all know this right? Rookies and castoffs at WR did not help, although Foster worked to get better. KB went to KC and did what he did best - drop catchable balls from Mahomes. Beans stressed in his presser when talking about Beasley and Brown that they wanted to get some veteran WRs this off-season so that they would have guys that will run the right route to the right depth. He could be shifting blame, or Josh could have legit been throwing to where his receivers were supposed to be on enough occasions to warrant the upgrades. It's fine to argue these points...made me look up things I would not otherwise, but did not change my perception when watching games that the kid is trending in the right direction. 2
YattaOkasan Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Yeah the game has evolved. I do think it is likely modern day players have increased their accuracy over other generations but i also think play scheming and rule changes have probably had a larger effect on the higher completion percentages we see today. The big takeaway is where a player ranks among his peers. Kelly was top 10 for his era. Allen was dead last in his first season and might remain in the bottom third of NFL quarter backs for most of his career as Cam has up till last year when he surprisingly cracked the top 10 in completion percentage. Agreed. But to further my point Allen’s completion percentage is likely related to system. He does need to process better but with an improved line and always open Beasley I think his numbers will improve a lot. Cam is a great example too because his percentage has increased from the addition of mccaffery
BarleyNY Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 19 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Wow. That’s rough.
oldmanfan Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Wow. That’s rough. If you go back through the thread, which I know is asking a lot, you'll see why this data is faulty. They confuse accuracy with precision.
LABILLBACKER Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 2 hours ago, WideNine said: Allen was pressured on nearly 40% of his drop backs. That was close to, if not the worst in the league. It's a bit of a waste of time to talk accuracy at this stage. There is a reason why the staff at OBD retooled both the line and coaching there. QBs forced to throw while under pressure generally do pretty poorly - we all know this right? Rookies and castoffs at WR did not help, although Foster worked to get better. KB went to KC and did what he did best - drop catchable balls from Mahomes. Beans stressed in his presser when talking about Beasley and Brown that they wanted to get some veteran WRs this off-season so that they would have guys that will run the right route to the right depth. He could be shifting blame, or Josh could have legit been throwing to where his receivers were supposed to be on enough occasions to warrant the upgrades. It's fine to argue these points...made me look up things I would not otherwise, but did not change my perception when watching games that the kid is trending in the right direction. I completely agree. I'm not worried about Josh's accuracy in the slightest. What does worry me is will we have wr's capable of handling balls coming at them at well over 60mph?
BarleyNY Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 52 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: If you go back through the thread, which I know is asking a lot, you'll see why this data is faulty. They confuse accuracy with precision. Seriously?
WideNine Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 27 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: I completely agree. I'm not worried about Josh's accuracy in the slightest. What does worry me is will we have wr's capable of handling balls coming at them at well over 60mph? I saw more touch on those shorter swing and wheel routes as the season progressed, unless he was avoiding a sack and had to rush the throw just to get it near the receiver. Those 30 yard posts and digs in tighter coverage were often on a rope, so our guys should think about wearing good gloves:) With Foster and Brown on the outside teams are just going to have to pick their poison, should see our share of cover 2 and 3 with plenty of underneath options for good yardage...throw in Beasley who is great at exploiting those matchups, a running game that demands some respect...Daboll has got to be chomping at the bit with all these new toys.
oldmanfan Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said: Seriously? Yes. You look at their diagrams and they imply that unless you hit a guy right in the numbers every pass you're inaccurate. Hitting the same spot continually is precision, not accuracy. Look back and you'll see the classic dartboard diagrams explaining the difference between the two. Bottom line is great QBs are highly accurate and highly precise. Allen needs to be more precise, and on short balls I'd say both. 1
rayray808 Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 OP if I could buy you a beer right now I would! Mahalo for your hard work 1
transplantbillsfan Posted March 24, 2019 Author Posted March 24, 2019 5 hours ago, BarleyNY said: Wow. That’s rough. You aren't paying attention.
Mrbojanglezs Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 On 3/23/2019 at 12:54 AM, Zerovotlz said: ....How much improvement are you expecting? These are all 1st season numbers. Darnold 57.5% L. Jackson 58.2% M Trubisky 59.4% D Watson 61.8% Mayfield 63.8% Allen 52.8% Certainly Trubisky and Watson improved. Trubisky 66.6% That is a nice jump of 7% Watson 68.3% That is also a nice 7% Jump. Trubisky was a 67.5% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up. Watson was a 67.8% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up. 7% is an impressive leap forward...and is really at the high end of what could ever be expected. If Allen were to jump 7%....he'd still be a 59% completion rate NFL QB. That would be a bottom 3 NFL QB. Josh Allen was a 56% thrower over his college career. You are expecting A LOT to happen here. 1. Allen getting a 7% increase as a best case scenario, still leaves him at the bottom of the pack of NFL starters. And......a 7% increase would bring him to a pct that FAR EXCEEDS his college number....also not likely You can tell me 100 different factors that go into Completion %, but ultimately, it's a reasonably good number to look and use to make a judgement. I would take 59-62% with Allen. Lower % is ok with him because it will likely be with the longest air yard completion distance in the league.
Rock'em Sock'em Posted March 24, 2019 Posted March 24, 2019 Thanks for the data. From a productivity point of view, rushing yards when all WRs are blanketed should count for something too. That's where Allen, Wentz, Watson, Trubisky, and Jackson would get a bump over their peers. Allen passes the eyeball test. He was decent last year, despite OL/WR deficiencies. There is no doubt that Allen should be in for an even better season, with a better group of guys upfront and with improved pass catchers - especially if Foster can improve in year 2. The thing I liked most about Allen was his ability to turn an otherwise pathetic offense into a competitive one (albeit inconsistently). I'd expect Allen to get to 59%+ and also a middle of the road offense in 2019 (16th) with upside to get into the top 10. Anything less will be a disappointment.
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