Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[HeHateMe]

46 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Lol.  Fire post.  "I'm going to ignore the mountain of statistical evidence and accompanying analysis, and instead go with my gut on this."  

 

Its the literal equivelant of "The earth is flat, any one with eyes can see the earth is flat."  

 

Stats don't equal accuracy.  I don't even think completion % tells the story.  Allen threw a lot of bad balls this year.  You are a blind homer.

 

And I still like Allen as a QB prospect, he just has a long way to go.  He needs to improve his footwork and be more consistent with his throwing.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

12 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

 

Stats don't equal accuracy.  I don't even think completion % tells the story.  Allen threw a lot of bad balls this year.  You are a blind homer.

 

And I still like Allen as a QB prospect, he just has a long way to go.  He needs to improve his footwork and be more consistent with his throwing.

 

Did you even read the OP? Really though, I don't think you can read the OP and then type these words thinking that it is at all responsive.  

[Bing Bong]

1 hour ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

  

There is nothing wrong with a dissenting opinion.  The problem is the "eye test" or dismissing the mountain of work done outright without even bothering to analyze the point.  

I don't see much evidence proving Josh Allen is super accurate, or significantly more accurate than we presumably thought, from the OP. It just appears to be an attempt to make a team stat into more of an individual stat by removing a few team variables. The quarterbacks all have less variance after the conversion, and Josh Allen is moved up from last in completion % to 5th just above Watson and Rosen in true % (or whatever it's called). So if variance is reduced, the distance between everyone is basically doubled in importance.. and the conclusion is to say JA had a better individual completion rate than Watson, worse than Jackson, Baker, and Darnold (who has an absurd flip).

 

It's interesting, I'd like to see what a lot more quarterbacks look like relative to these numbers. I'd like to see more established quarterback's rookie numbers and how they compare to their rookie years several years later. How Darnold's high number might compare to recognized established quarterbacks. Is his number good? Is it average? Is Rosen's number bad? But anyway I don't see what's supposed to be radically different concerning JA here. I'd assume if we had this number for every Quarterback in the league it would range from 75% to 90%.

 

I don't think he's terribly accurate compared to other top 15 quarterbacks. But I don't really care as my takeaway this season is he can make impossible throws, is a great runner, is aggressive yet relatively takes care of the ball, and has improved every game, every quarter. He especially seemed to perform better late in close games. I loved what I saw. Certain Quarterbacks can be very successful with limited accuracy, and JA seems to have the ability to be one of those guys.. as well as improving on accuracy regardless like all rookies do.

Edited March 22, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[HeHateMe]

39 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Did you even read the OP? Really though, I don't think you can read the OP and then type these words thinking that it is at all responsive.  

 

I'm not knocking the OP but that analysis is extremely subjective still.  Albeit a good effort.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm the guy who thought Peterman would be the starter, and he was.

 

You also argued he was the best Quarterback on the roster. And he wasn't. And even if he was the only Quarterback on the roster he wouldn't have been the best Quarterback on the roster.

[Bing Bong]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You also argued he was the best Quarterback on the roster. And he wasn't. And even if he was the only Quarterback on the roster he wouldn't have been the best Quarterback on the roster.

Petermania claimed a lot of victims. It made me upset. But I've forgiven them. There were so many.

 

Their crime has passed the statute of limitations. I have accepted Petermaniacs back into the fold as rational humans. We can only hope they've learned.

[GoBills808]

4 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Most deep ball completions are thrown anywhere 10-15 yards ahead of the WR, and 10 yards in either direction laterally.

 

Is this conjecture or do you have something to back it up? 

[syhuang]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You also argued he was the best Quarterback on the roster. And he wasn't. And even if he was the only Quarterback on the roster he wouldn't have been the best Quarterback on the roster.

 

This is logically flaw. When you said X was the only Quarterback (I emphasize only here), this makes none of the other players on the roster qualify as "Quarterback" no matter what your definition of "Quarterback" is. Otherwise, if anyone else on the roster is considered a Quarterback, X is then not the only Quarterback. Thus, X would be the best (and the wort, and the only) Quarterback on the roster.

[Bing Bong]

20 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 Is this conjecture or do you have something to back it up? 

complete conjecture. How about deep balls sometimes require a WR to adjust. Which he can do because he has a lot of air time on the pass.

 

Although actually that has to be true haha I just described a 100 square foot target that "most deep completions" fall in.

 

If you miss that big a target it's a god awful throw.

Edited March 22, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

complete conjecture. How about deep balls sometimes require a WR to adjust. Which he can do because he has a lot of air time on the pass.

Like the one he threw to Jones against the Charges for 60 yards?

[Zerovoltz]

14 hours ago, Warcodered said:

That's decision making and while one of the most important attributes of a QB it definitely isn't the same thing as accuracy.

A fair point.   

 

6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I agree with this.  But completion percentage has more to do with reading defenses, adequate protection, receivers running good routes and showing good hand and such than it does accuracy.

I’m not sure the data backs this up.  When you look at QBs who had long careers and played for different teams etc, you can see from year to year they are who they are and that it is in fact NOT about the supporting cast.  Look at Randall Cunningham.  He had a great year on that 98 Vikings team.  Completed 60.9 pct of his passes.  He had an incredible supporting cast.  Cunningham completed about 60 pct of his passes several seasons in his career, for different teams and coaches. 

 

Joe Montana passed for 60.5 in his final two years playing for KC.  With crap at WR and TE.  He hit 61, 62, 60 in 84, 85 etc with great coaching and an incredible cast around him.  

 

I know everyone is highly anticipating a big jump forward from Allen due to the roster upgrades....but data suggests that a QB is a lot more about who he is than who is around him.  

 

 

[Bing Bong]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 Like the one he threw to Jones against the Charges for 60 yards?

sure

[LSHMEAB]

1 minute ago, Zerovotlz said:

A fair point.   

 

I’m not sure the data backs this up.  When you look at QBs who had long careers and played for different teams etc, you can see from year to year they are who they are and that it is in fact NOT about the supporting cast.  Look at Randall Cunningham.  He had a great year on that 98 Vikings team.  Completed 60.9 pct of his passes.  He had an incredible supporting cast.  Cunningham completed about 60 pct of his passes several seasons in his career, for different teams and coaches. 

 

Joe Montana passed for 60.5 in his final two years playing for KC.  With crap at WR and TE.  He hit 61, 62, 60 in 84, 85 etc with great coaching and an incredible cast around him.  

 

I know everyone is highly anticipating a big jump forward from Allen due to the roster upgrades....but data suggests that a QB is a lot more about who he is than who is around him.  

 

 

You depress the h*** out of me with your facts.

 

Allen will never be a "precise" or accurate passer. He is, however, a tremendous playmaker. The hope/potential is that his strengths, and he's got plenty, outweigh his limitations. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

sure

 

So why'd you say this then? 

 

4 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

...but I never see deep balls like that. Foster has his man beat.. what's the hurry to get the ball to him in that situation? I see quarterbacks, most comedically Phillip Rivers, arc the ball much higher when they have a man beat deep in the field. They can lob it to a very large radius so that the WR can adjust. Makes it easier on the WR as well, to catch and keep running. Foster would have had to make an acrobatic catch and fall when that could have been a touchdown thrown with touch. JA is throwing to the center of a dart board from 40 yards out. Most deep ball completions are thrown anywhere 10-15 yards ahead of the WR, and 10 yards in either direction laterally.

 

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

A fair point.   

 

I’m not sure the data backs this up.  When you look at QBs who had long careers and played for different teams etc, you can see from year to year they are who they are and that it is in fact NOT about the supporting cast.  Look at Randall Cunningham.  He had a great year on that 98 Vikings team.  Completed 60.9 pct of his passes.  He had an incredible supporting cast.  Cunningham completed about 60 pct of his passes several seasons in his career, for different teams and coaches. 

 

Joe Montana passed for 60.5 in his final two years playing for KC.  With crap at WR and TE.  He hit 61, 62, 60 in 84, 85 etc with great coaching and an incredible cast around him.  

 

I know everyone is highly anticipating a big jump forward from Allen due to the roster upgrades....but data suggests that a QB is a lot more about who he is than who is around him.  

 

 

The data you show does not really address the question.  All you're doing is what others do: trying  to use completion percentage to conflate with accuracy.  There have been lengthy discussions about this in the thread; I encourage you to read them if you haven't.

 

Ultimately to gauge accuracy in any athletic endeavor, whether a football, basketball, bowling ball, golf ball, the only person who truly knows exactly what his target is is the one with the ball in his hands.  Without that knowledge you can't really say for sure how accurate a single throw, etc. is.

[Bing Bong]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

So why'd you say this then? 

 

 

don't know what you're getting at. Zay didn't have his man beat and the ball was thrown behind him. Bills weren't exactly playing top football during week 2 eh?

 

 

Check out the physics of a deep pass here.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

don't know what you're getting at. Zay didn't have his man beat and the ball was thrown behind him. Bills weren't exactly playing top football during week 2 eh

 

 

So when I asked you for stats supporting your claim that 'Most deep ball completions are thrown anywhere 10-15 yards ahead of the WR, and 10 yards in either direction laterally' you said it was actually just your opinion. Then when you said 'I never see deep balls like that' (from Allen) and I give you an example of a time when he threw a deep ball that gave his wideout time to adjust, you come up with 'well, the Bills weren't playing top football week 2'. Solid.

[Zerovoltz]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

The data you show does not really address the question.  All you're doing is what others do: trying  to use completion percentage to conflate with accuracy.  There have been lengthy discussions about this in the thread; I encourage you to read them if you haven't.

 

Ultimately to gauge accuracy in any athletic endeavor, whether a football, basketball, bowling ball, golf ball, the only person who truly knows exactly what his target is is the one with the ball in his hands.  Without that knowledge you can't really say for sure how accurate a single throw, etc. is.

 

? well then why cut Peterman?  Only he really knew what the target was!  Without that knowledge we can’t really say for sure how accurate any of his throws were!

 

 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

? well then why cut Peterman?  Only he really knew what the target was!  Without that knowledge we can’t really say for sure how accurate any of his throws were!

 

 

Now you're being silly.  Peterman threw a ton of picks.  Do you want to have a real discussion about this or resort to silliness?

[LSHMEAB]

The silver lining here is that the Bills dramatically improved their offensive personnel so we'll be seeing big time results as opposed to excuses. Right?