Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[transplantbillsfan]

On 3/16/2019 at 9:44 PM, BullBuchanan said:

Touch goes a long way when you talk about accuracy. Tyree Jackson was putting them on the money at the combine, but he was whipping fastballs on 5 yard routes and he got chewed out for making his WRs drop balls. This is something Allen did consistently his rookie year. To put him in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous. If the Browns fire Hue before the season they win the division on his shoulders.

 

To put Allen in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous????

 

Mayfield propelled himself into the upper echelon of QBs in just one year? And I actually loved Mayfield and desperately wanted us to draft him. But that guy was surrounded by talent this past season.

 

Allen was Sisyphus. But he kept pushing that boulder up the hill anyway, despite little help and knowing it was about to roll right back down.

 

 

Hey... aren't you the guy who thought Peterman should be our starter?

On 3/17/2019 at 5:56 AM, Scorp83 said:

For starters, I appreciate all the work you out in to this... surely, you didnt have to. But, appreciate it fully!

 

Out of everything you've point out ... you've also made the argument that he is inaccurate too ... 63 uncatchable Balls is alot... & is a main reason you can have a below 60% completion percentage.  Notice also that this stat wasn't provided with Mayfield, Wentz & Watson.

 

#ImJusSayin 

 

Wait I'm sorry, are you accusing me of providing incomplete stats? 

 

I didn't. It's there. Look closer.

[Bing Bong]

On 3/17/2019 at 10:56 AM, Scorp83 said:

For starters, I appreciate all the work you out in to this... surely, you didnt have to. But, appreciate it fully!

 

Out of everything you've point out ... you've also made the argument that he is inaccurate too ... 63 uncatchable Balls is alot... & is a main reason you can have a below 60% completion percentage.  Notice also that this stat wasn't provided with Mayfield, Wentz & Watson.

 

#ImJusSayin 

Dawg never quote an OP that long in full again hahaha it was impossible to see what you wrote

[Zerovoltz]

Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was?  

 

You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct.

 

This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse.  Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct.  

 

IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT!  It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran.  Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short.

 

Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix.  

 

Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.  

 

 

[Bing Bong]

24 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Mayfield propelled himself into the upper echelon of QBs in just one year? And I actually loved Mayfield and desperately wanted us to draft him. But that guy was surrounded by talent this past season.

I get that argument but you still have to weigh the accomplishments against the surrounding talent. Baker broke the rookie TD record in less games. I'd still prefer to have him now. I think most any team wants him at his potential behind Pat Mahomes.

 

Of course I like Allen as the second best Quarterback in my eyes..  as of now. But the post nailed it with touch. Completion % encapsulates everything really and having the IQ and touch not to throw a bullet to Clay on a crossing route is something Baker showed that JA didn't.

 

Dude's got to improve. He can start putting up the stats that Baker can. We can all see it. I'm excited, you're excited, what's missing? He's not doing all the great things we see consistently enough nor has all the throws Baker has in his arsenal. Accuracy IS important. It's what turns the last game lions win by the skin of our teeth into a blowout when we don't move the chains for 3 full quarters.

 

[GoBills808]

Lol @ ‘touch’. How about catch the ball and don’t complain that it’s moving too fast.

[Warcodered]

27 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was?  

 

You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct.

 

This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse.  Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct.  

 

IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT!  It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran.  Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short.

 

Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix.  

 

Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.  

 

 

That's decision making and while one of the most important attributes of a QB it definitely isn't the same thing as accuracy.

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

To put Allen in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous????

 

Mayfield propelled himself into the upper echelon of QBs in just one year? And I actually loved Mayfield and desperately wanted us to draft him. But that guy was surrounded by talent this past season.

 

Allen was Sisyphus. But he kept pushing that boulder up the hill anyway, despite little help and knowing it was about to roll right back down.

 

 

Hey... aren't you the guy who thought Peterman should be our starter?

 

Wait I'm sorry, are you accusing me of providing incomplete stats? 

 

I didn't. It's there. Look closer.

I'm the guy who thought Peterman would be the starter, and he was. Need any more reminders of times I was right and you were wrong? Spoiler: it's this conversation. Allen could very well get better, but as of today, yes - it's ridiculous to put Allen in the same class as Mayfield. They're both the same players they were going into the draft as of right now, and that's a positive for Mayfield and a knock for Allen.

I hope to hell he gets better, because he's the guy we got.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was?  

 

You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct.

 

This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse.  Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct.  

 

IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT!  It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran.  Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short.

 

Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix.  

 

Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.  

 

All of this critique is fine. However, the reason I decided to go through this endeavor WITHOUT including any breakdowns of ball placement or especially where the ball was supposed to go was because, first of all, I don't know crap about specific NFL playbooks. Hell, even the "experts" don't know crap about the 2018 Brian Daboll NFL playbook, do they? Do you really think these guys who are experts can truly break down #1 read vs #2 read vs hot read vs etc.? If you have that much faith in them, be blissful in... well, you get my drift, and if you don't, enjoy.

 

But most of all, what I tried to do was the most objectively subjective breakdown I could possibly do.

 

And I think my efforts stand.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I get that argument but you still have to weigh the accomplishments against the surrounding talent. Baker broke the rookie TD record in less games. I'd still prefer to have him now. I think most any team wants him at his potential behind Pat Mahomes.

 

Of course I like Allen as the second best Quarterback in my eyes..  as of now. But the post nailed it with touch. Completion % encapsulates everything really and having the IQ and touch not to throw a bullet to Clay on a crossing route is something Baker showed that JA didn't.

 

Dude's got to improve. He can start putting up the stats that Baker can. We can all see it. I'm excited, you're excited, what's missing? He's not doing all the great things we see consistently enough nor has all the throws Baker has in his arsenal. Accuracy IS important. It's what turns the last game lions win by the skin of our teeth into a blowout when we don't move the chains for 3 full quarters.

 

 

Completion % is everything, huh?

 

You're not seeing the big picture here if you're just brushing aside the talent gap.

 

Rookie QBs...

 

#1: 54.1% completion percentage, 1.75 TDs per game, 1.75 turnovers per game.

 

#2: 52.8% completion percentage, 1.5 TDs per game, 1.2 turnovers per game.

 

 

One had the benefit of an entire offseason of reps with the 1st team.

 

One was relegated to a QB competition against inferior QBs and got a fraction of the snaps in the offseason with the 1s.

 

 

Are you still so sure completion percentage is everything?

[transplantbillsfan]

30 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I'm the guy who thought Peterman would be the starter, and he was. Need any more reminders of times I was right and you were wrong? Spoiler: it's this conversation. Allen could very well get better, but as of today, yes - it's ridiculous to put Allen in the same class as Mayfield. They're both the same players they were going into the draft as of right now, and that's a positive for Mayfield and a knock for Allen.

I hope to hell he gets better, because he's the guy we got.

 

Oh that's precious... trying yo make it seem like you were merely making a prediction about Peterman rather than being all over his jock the way you were.

 

Congrats for being right about our Head Coach being a total moron in that decision, but you weren't just putting that out there as some kind of hesitant prediction. You desperately wanted Peterman to start, for whatever weird reason. Apparently you missed Peterman's appearances against the Chargers and Jaguars in 2017.

[oldmanfan]

3 hours ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I get that argument but you still have to weigh the accomplishments against the surrounding talent. Baker broke the rookie TD record in less games. I'd still prefer to have him now. I think most any team wants him at his potential behind Pat Mahomes.

 

Of course I like Allen as the second best Quarterback in my eyes..  as of now. But the post nailed it with touch. Completion % encapsulates everything really and having the IQ and touch not to throw a bullet to Clay on a crossing route is something Baker showed that JA didn't.

 

Dude's got to improve. He can start putting up the stats that Baker can. We can all see it. I'm excited, you're excited, what's missing? He's not doing all the great things we see consistently enough nor has all the throws Baker has in his arsenal. Accuracy IS important. It's what turns the last game lions win by the skin of our teeth into a blowout when we don't move the chains for 3 full quarters.

 

Another guy who does not get that completion percentage is not accuracy.  Read the thread before commenting.  Within it you'll see why.

 

Just as an example why, if a QB makes 30 throws in a game and has two drops by receivers and one throwaway, it moves him from 52% to the magical 60% so many want  if those are taken out.  Those have nothing to do with accuracy.

[Bing Bong]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Another guy who does not get that completion percentage is not accuracy.  Read the thread before commenting.  Within it you'll see why.

 

Just as an example why, if a QB makes 30 throws in a game and has two drops by receivers and one throwaway, it moves him from 52% to the magical 60% so many want  if those are taken out.  Those have nothing to do with accuracy.

I'm not saying it is. I think it still tells another story of QB ability. I get the premise of the thread. I still think completion percentage means something. The stat lumps a lot of things outside the Quarterback's power, sure, but it's still an important information in tandem with other QB stats.

 

I'm not going to dismiss it as not important. At the end of the day it's highly correlated with moving the chains. I want to move the chains

Edited March 22, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[oldmanfan]

20 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

I'm not saying it is. I think it still tells another story of QB ability. I get the premise of the thread. I still think completion percentage means something. The stat lumps a lot of things outside the Quarterback's power, sure, but it's still an important information in tandem with other QB stats.

 

I'm not going to dismiss it as not important. At the end of the day it's highly correlated with moving the chains. I want to move the chains

I agree with this.  But completion percentage has more to do with reading defenses, adequate protection, receivers running good routes and showing good hand and such than it does accuracy.

[Bing Bong]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Completion % is everything, huh?

 

You're not seeing the big picture here if you're just brushing aside the talent gap.

 

Rookie QBs...

 

#1: 54.1% completion percentage, 1.75 TDs per game, 1.75 turnovers per game.

 

#2: 52.8% completion percentage, 1.5 TDs per game, 1.2 turnovers per game.

  

 

One had the benefit of an entire offseason of reps with the 1st team.

 

One was relegated to a QB competition against inferior QBs and got a fraction of the snaps in the offseason with the 1s.

  

 

Are you still so sure completion percentage is everything?

well... yep you nailed it: it's most everything, including poor WRs, poor protection, and.. I guess preseason reps for you. I'm saying it's tons of variables lumped into a pretty simple metric. So it just need to be considered in context.. as you've written as much. I'm not saying it's everything that defines a quarterback. It's everything that determines if a ball gets thrown and caught. Which is a good thing. You want that to happen a lot.

 

It also shows quarterback's touch, IQ, reading the field, accuracy, throw power. In needs to be viewed not in a vacuum, but in context with YPC, drops, all that. It's so many factors lumped into one thing. That's ultimately what you're saying anyway. But it's important to have a good completion %. It's a telling stat, regardless of what determines it, it's ultimately a good metric a team wants to improve on. Not something to be dismissed because you don't like the criticism.

 

if you want it to be more a team stat then so be it. It certainly is. The degree to which completion % is individual or team can be reasonably interpreted differently. Your work essentially is an attempt to convert it into an individual stat. And out of 7 guys, the rankings roughly follow completion % anyway. Variance is significantly reduced after your conversion, so without seeing how more quarterbacks would get converted, it appears the individual conversion of the stat puts all quarterbacks closer together (makes sense). 

 

I was simply giving you an example where Baker makes a throw that more often gets completed than JA would. JA has throws that Baker can't make. They both put a tiny dent in your completion %.

 

It's literally everything that indicates how many throws get caught. This is completion %.

 

Edited March 22, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[HeHateMe]

Yes, he was inaccurate this season.  Allen has a long way to go to improve his accuracy.  Anyone that says otherwise is just in denial.  Just watch the games..  

 

I still think he can improve and be a solid QB though.  A better O-line and having more options in the passing game will also help.

[Bing Bong]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

 I agree with this.  But completion percentage has more to do with reading defenses, adequate protection, receivers running good routes and showing good hand and such than it does accuracy.

Yep it's everything in football that leads to a throw being caught. Accuracy is included in all that.

 

I think it gets associated with accuracy for people when taking a quarterback's career completion. Over a large sample size a ton of these things change up and down. On aggregate it becomes a wash. The only constant is the thrower after say 240 games. Over a single season I don't think accuracy should be credited as much for completion %. Over a career I do think it becomes a more individual stat, making accuracy, touch, throw power, reading defenses the primary drivers.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

4 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Yes, he was inaccurate this season.  Allen has a long way to go to improve his accuracy.  Anyone that says otherwise is just in denial.  Just watch the games..  

 

I still think he can improve and be a solid QB though.  A better O-line and having more options in the passing game will also help.

 

Lol.  Fire post.  "I'm going to ignore the mountain of statistical evidence and accompanying analysis, and instead go with my gut on this."  

 

Its the literal equivelant of "The earth is flat, any one with eyes can see the earth is flat."  

[Bing Bong]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Lol @ ‘touch’. How about catch the ball and don’t complain that it’s moving too fast.

well imagine if you have a 10 year old wide open in the endzone on a clock-hit-zero, game winning playoff drive. You lob a careful ball.. underhand.. to the breadbasket and pray the kid catches it. Josh Allen throws a bullet at the kid and probably impales it in him for a completion anyway. But he really shouldn't do that given the circumstances. That 10 year old is Charles Clay open on a crossing route haha. 

 

I'm being a bit facetious about touch to receivers on short to medium routes. There is a time and place to take some heat off the ball just fit arc a throw correctly to the runner. But for the most part, we should just get guys that can catch these balls in stride.

 

I want to see more touch on deep throws. Josh Allen really just made it harder on himself when he'd throw such a low arcing bullet to his man open deep. I recall one very specifically where he missed Foster by a hair.. and Foster really could have come down with it if he pulled out an extraordinary diving catch. It was a fantastic throw considering he could throw it that deep and so hard while getting still getting it just in front of Foster. 

 

But I never see deep balls like that. Foster has his man beat.. what's the hurry to get the ball to him in that situation? I see quarterbacks, most comedically Phillip Rivers, arc the ball much higher when they have a man beat deep in the field. They can lob it to a very large radius so that the WR can adjust. Makes it easier on the WR as well, to catch and keep running. Foster would have had to make an acrobatic catch and fall when that could have been a touchdown thrown with touch. JA is throwing to the center of a dart board from 40 yards out. Most deep ball completions are thrown anywhere 10-15 yards ahead of the WR, and 10 yards in either direction laterally.

Edited March 22, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Bing Bong]

32 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

Yes, he was inaccurate this season.  Allen has a long way to go to improve his accuracy.  Anyone that says otherwise is just in denial.  Just watch the games..  

 

I still think he can improve and be a solid QB though.  A better O-line and having more options in the passing game will also help.

 

26 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Lol.  Fire post.  "I'm going to ignore the mountain of statistical evidence and accompanying analysis, and instead go with my gut on this."  

 

Its the literal equivelant of "The earth is flat, any one with eyes can see the earth is flat."  

 

I appreciate anyone who goes into this thread with the balls to give a dissenting opinion lol. Especially in this thread, you're throwing yourself to the wolves to add some variety to the conversation.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

16 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

 

 

I appreciate anyone who goes into this thread with the balls to give a dissenting opinion lol. Especially in this thread, you're throwing yourself to the wolves to add some variety to the conversation.

 

There is nothing wrong with a dissenting opinion.  The problem is the "eye test" or dismissing the mountain of work done outright without even bothering to analyze the point.