BigDingus Posted February 21, 2019 Posted February 21, 2019 Not reading through the entire thread... No point in arguing anymore when it's clear that he definitely is inaccurate if you watch any of his games. The fact that in the title it references specific years of a player instead of the player's entire career says quite a bit too. Allen has had the same accuracy issues since he's been playing. If this was an anomaly of a year, sure, you have a point. But it's the same as the year before, and the year before, and the year before... That's a pattern. That's not a random bad year. He's playing the EXACT same way he always has. Unlike other rookies, if you took Allen's best year in college & had him repeat it in the NFL, he'd be a disappointment if he didn't improve. If you took someone like Baker Mayfield's best year in college & had him play that way in the NFL, he'd be an MVP. Look at Mahomes, he's playing like he did in college & was dominant. Allen's best year wouldn't sniff dominant, let alone top tier in the league. Accuracy is a big reason why.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 21, 2019 Author Posted February 21, 2019 9 hours ago, BigDingus said: Not reading through the entire thread... No point in arguing anymore when it's clear that he definitely is inaccurate if you watch any of his games. The fact that in the title it references specific years of a player instead of the player's entire career says quite a bit too. Allen has had the same accuracy issues since he's been playing. If this was an anomaly of a year, sure, you have a point. But it's the same as the year before, and the year before, and the year before... That's a pattern. That's not a random bad year. He's playing the EXACT same way he always has. Unlike other rookies, if you took Allen's best year in college & had him repeat it in the NFL, he'd be a disappointment if he didn't improve. If you took someone like Baker Mayfield's best year in college & had him play that way in the NFL, he'd be an MVP. Look at Mahomes, he's playing like he did in college & was dominant. Allen's best year wouldn't sniff dominant, let alone top tier in the league. Accuracy is a big reason why. Boy, don't read the entire thread, but at least read the OP rather than just the title I don't care about college careers. Allen is an NFL QB now, and now he's pretty much as accurate--if not more in a couple cases--than all the other 2019 rookie QBs along with the ROOKIE VERSIONS (I explain why I do this in the OP... go read it) of Watson and Wentz. BigDingus.
racketmaster Posted February 22, 2019 Posted February 22, 2019 I know the completion % argument is somewhat tiresome but here are just a few quarterbacks who also had low completion percentages early in their careers as well as less than impressive TD to INT ratios: Eli Manning: 2004 - 48.2% and 6td to 9 int 2005 - 52.8% and 24td to 17int (Eli does not hit 60% until 2008) Matt Stafford: 2009 - 53.3% and 13td to 20int (Stafford does not get to 60% until 3rd year) Kurt Cousins: 2013 - (2nd year) 52.3% and 4td to 7int Drew Brees: 2001- 55.6% with 1td and 0int 2002 - 60.8% with 17td and 16int 2003 - 57.6% with 11td and 15int Derek Carr: 2014 - 58.1% with 21td and 12int Alex Smith: 2005 - 50.9% with 1td and 11int 2006 - 58.1% with 16td and 16int 2007 - 48.7% with 2td and 4int Andy Dalton: 2011 - 58.1% with 20td and 13int Jared Goff: 2016 - 54.6% with 5td and 7int Andrew Luck: 2012 - 54.1% with 23td and 18int Mitch Trubisky: 2017 - 59.4% with 7td and 7int Jameis Winston: 2015 - 58.3% with 22td and 15int Ryan Tannehill: 2012 - 58.3% with 12td and 13int Peyton Manning: 1998 - 56.7% with 26td and 28int Michael Vick: 2001: 44.2% with 2td and 3int (2002 - 54.9%, 2003 - 50.0%, 2004 - 56.4%, 2005 - 55.3%, 2006 - 52.6%) Matt Hasselbeck: 2001 (first real action) 54.4% with 7td to 8int Donovan McNabb: 1999 - 49.1% with 8td and 7int (2000 - 58%, 2001 - 57.8%, 2002 - 58.4%, 2003 - 57.5%, ) There are others but I think you get the point that it is not uncommon for young quarterbacks to struggle. The quarterbacks range from decent starters to hall of famers. I doubt Allen ever leads the league in completion percentage like a Drew Brees but every quarterback is different and has different strengths. Allen can extend plays with his legs and be accurate at the intermediate level then he should be productive. He can push the ball to all levels of the field so he should not be forced into a dink and dunk mentality just to artificially increase his completion percentage. Allen will only get better and the assets he brings to the table should be enough to make him a franchise quarterback with the potential to be an elite one for years to come. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 23, 2019 Author Posted February 23, 2019 (edited) 10 hours ago, racketmaster said: I know the completion % argument is somewhat tiresome but here are just a few quarterbacks who also had low completion percentages early in their careers as well as less than impressive TD to INT ratios: Eli Manning: 2004 - 48.2% and 6td to 9 int 2005 - 52.8% and 24td to 17int (Eli does not hit 60% until 2008) Matt Stafford: 2009 - 53.3% and 13td to 20int (Stafford does not get to 60% until 3rd year) Kurt Cousins: 2013 - (2nd year) 52.3% and 4td to 7int Drew Brees: 2001- 55.6% with 1td and 0int 2002 - 60.8% with 17td and 16int 2003 - 57.6% with 11td and 15int Derek Carr: 2014 - 58.1% with 21td and 12int Alex Smith: 2005 - 50.9% with 1td and 11int 2006 - 58.1% with 16td and 16int 2007 - 48.7% with 2td and 4int Andy Dalton: 2011 - 58.1% with 20td and 13int Jared Goff: 2016 - 54.6% with 5td and 7int Andrew Luck: 2012 - 54.1% with 23td and 18int Mitch Trubisky: 2017 - 59.4% with 7td and 7int Jameis Winston: 2015 - 58.3% with 22td and 15int Ryan Tannehill: 2012 - 58.3% with 12td and 13int Peyton Manning: 1998 - 56.7% with 26td and 28int Michael Vick: 2001: 44.2% with 2td and 3int (2002 - 54.9%, 2003 - 50.0%, 2004 - 56.4%, 2005 - 55.3%, 2006 - 52.6%) Matt Hasselbeck: 2001 (first real action) 54.4% with 7td to 8int Donovan McNabb: 1999 - 49.1% with 8td and 7int (2000 - 58%, 2001 - 57.8%, 2002 - 58.4%, 2003 - 57.5%, ) There are others but I think you get the point that it is not uncommon for young quarterbacks to struggle. The quarterbacks range from decent starters to hall of famers. I doubt Allen ever leads the league in completion percentage like a Drew Brees but every quarterback is different and has different strengths. Allen can extend plays with his legs and be accurate at the intermediate level then he should be productive. He can push the ball to all levels of the field so he should not be forced into a dink and dunk mentality just to artificially increase his completion percentage. Allen will only get better and the assets he brings to the table should be enough to make him a franchise quarterback with the potential to be an elite one for years to come. Thank you. Again essentially helping to prove the central premise that Allen is NOT inaccurate unless you consider virtually every other highly touted rookie over the last I don't know how many years inaccurate. There are so many interesting stats here I think so many would just be immediately dismissive of, though. Edited February 23, 2019 by transplantbillsfan
racketmaster Posted February 23, 2019 Posted February 23, 2019 5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Thank you. Again essentially helping to prove the central premise that Allen is NOT inaccurate unless you consider virtually every other highly touted rookie over the last I don't know how many years inaccurate. There are so many interesting stats here I think so many would just be immediately dismissive of, though. I am assuming the negative-Allen response will be something along the lines that Allen has a lower completion % in college as well so his stats are more reflective of what his pro career will be. I don’t agree with that sentiment (Allen was a late bloomer and has been a developing player) but people will see what they want to see. Most of the qbs listed above have made huge increases in their completion percentages over the years so it seems likely Allen’s percentage will increase as well. Allen is at about 53% and if he is able to increase his to 59-60 he will be more than fine. His big play ability and running ability will make up for a lower completion percentage. His yards per completion will be on the higher end so it is okay if he has a lower than average completion percentage. Some of the above qbs have made 10-15 point increases in their completion percentages so it seems like a realistic possibility than Allen can jump up 6-7 points. 2
Ethan in Cleveland Posted February 23, 2019 Posted February 23, 2019 You dont need analytics to see Zay is a bust and the entire WR group is awful. You dont need analytics to know Allen git better as the season wore on and Foster started to play better. But you also don’t need analayics to know he turned the ball over too much, missed many easy throws, but showed more potential than any QB since Kelly. 1
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted February 23, 2019 Posted February 23, 2019 On 2/19/2019 at 11:45 PM, GunnerBill said: It matters not because the inaccurate balls are more inaccurate it matters because it is unexplained inaccuracy. I can work on Sam Darnold's base, I can build better protection for Josh Rosen, I can even try and work on Jackson's mechanics (that one is a lot tougher). But if I have a Quarterback who throws inaccurate balls for unexplained reasons it makes it difficult for me to tailor my offense to that. And again you conflate completions with accuracy. Just completing balls is not always enough and we did this debate to death with Taylor. He left too many yards on the field because his completions took away opportunities for YAC. All completions are not created equal. Taylor's biggest problem was not reading the defense. He was either too slow to read the defense or failed to read it entirely. That is when he left yards and points on the field. That will also be the number one thing Allen and any rookie QB needs to work on. If Allen can improve on that alone, his accuracy won't be an issue. If he can't improve his ability to read the defense then he will need to improve his accuracy. As i have pointed out in other threads Allen trended up big time looking at his final six starts compared to his first six games played. The only metric that did not improve was accuracy. But he became a better QB in all other meaningful metrics. It's a small sample size, but despite not improving his accuracy he improved his winning percentage from a 2-3 record in his first five starts to 3-3 in his last six starts.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 23, 2019 Author Posted February 23, 2019 8 hours ago, racketmaster said: I am assuming the negative-Allen response will be something along the lines that Allen has a lower completion % in college as well so his stats are more reflective of what his pro career will be. I don’t agree with that sentiment (Allen was a late bloomer and has been a developing player) but people will see what they want to see. Most of the qbs listed above have made huge increases in their completion percentages over the years so it seems likely Allen’s percentage will increase as well. Allen is at about 53% and if he is able to increase his to 59-60 he will be more than fine. His big play ability and running ability will make up for a lower completion percentage. His yards per completion will be on the higher end so it is okay if he has a lower than average completion percentage. Some of the above qbs have made 10-15 point increases in their completion percentages so it seems like a realistic possibility than Allen can jump up 6-7 points. Absolutely agree with all of this, especially the ridiculousness of people merely pointing to what he did in college without first actually having watched much/any of his college play (which I admit I didn't do until after we drafted him) and especially disregarding how relatively inexperienced he is at the position (multi-sport athlete in High School who didn't attend all those big QB camps like most highly touted rookie QBs have) and how much of a late-bloomer he is. Remember, Allen was a mere 6`3 and 180 lbs late in High School.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 24, 2019 Author Posted February 24, 2019 (edited) 13 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Taylor's biggest problem was not reading the defense. He was either too slow to read the defense or failed to read it entirely. That is when he left yards and points on the field. That will also be the number one thing Allen and any rookie QB needs to work on. If Allen can improve on that alone, his accuracy won't be an issue. If he can't improve his ability to read the defense then he will need to improve his accuracy. As i have pointed out in other threads Allen trended up big time looking at his final six starts compared to his first six games played. The only metric that did not improve was accuracy. But he became a better QB in all other meaningful metrics. It's a small sample size, but despite not improving his accuracy he improved his winning percentage from a 2-3 record in his first five starts to 3-3 in his last six starts. Absolutely. Processing was Allen's biggest struggle, but you could tell it immensely improved after the injury. As for accuracy, Allen's catchable ball % pre-injury vs post-injury was pretty similar, actually. Edited February 24, 2019 by transplantbillsfan
LABILLBACKER Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 On 1/14/2019 at 11:49 PM, Jeetz1231 said: Damn man, kudos to you for putting in all that effort. I think it's going to take awhile to change the narrative of the national media because the book on him coming out was his accuracy and that is what the "Experts" are going to hitch their wagon to. As long as his numbers at the end of the day show 60% or below you will continue to hear them bang the drum about his accuracy issues. Until he can either start winning lots of games or significantly up his % you will still hear this argument. I personally would love to see his % tick up a few numbers but the narrative that he is an inaccurate passer to me is flawed. Again, great work, I appreciate the time you put into this. Go The bottom line is we won't know exactly what we have in JA until the end of his 3rd season. If he can show 2nd year improvement and approach 60% I'd take that as a huge stride. One thing that will always be in his favor is his velocity on "interceptable". Most dbs wont be able to catch those.
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 25, 2019 Posted February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said: The bottom line is we won't know exactly what we have in JA until the end of his 3rd season. If he can show 2nd year improvement and approach 60% I'd take that as a huge stride. One thing that will always be in his favor is his velocity on "interceptable". Most dbs wont be able to catch those. Receivers might not either. That’s kinda of the point that some people are missing. No one questions Allen’s arm. But throwing missiles all the time doesn’t work either. I think the very underrated thing I saw with Mahomes is his touch on certain passes. I didn’t see that as much with Allen. I know now how hard you worked to defended his accuracy but honestly, what would be the Vegas line be on his completion % next year? 55? On 2/23/2019 at 5:13 PM, transplantbillsfan said: Absolutely agree with all of this, especially the ridiculousness of people merely pointing to what he did in college without first actually having watched much/any of his college play (which I admit I didn't do until after we drafted him) and especially disregarding how relatively inexperienced he is at the position (multi-sport athlete in High School who didn't attend all those big QB camps like most highly touted rookie QBs have) and how much of a late-bloomer he is. Remember, Allen was a mere 6`3 and 180 lbs late in High School. Aaron Rodgers has a similar background. He was smaller in high school, no big offers, went JUCO, and completed 66% of his passes in the PAC 10. im playing devil’s advocate and I hope you’re right. But of Qbs drafted in the last 10 years, Allen would be an absolute complete outlier if he turns into a top qb. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 26, 2019 Author Posted February 26, 2019 8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: I know now how hard you worked to defended his accuracy but honestly, what would be the Vegas line be on his completion % next year? 55? I'd predict Allen gets somewhere around 58-60% next year. He'll improve. But he won't be in the 65%+ range. I just think he's always going to throw the ball downfield significantly more than most QBs. 8 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Aaron Rodgers has a similar background. He was smaller in high school, no big offers, went JUCO, and completed 66% of his passes in the PAC 10. im playing devil’s advocate and I hope you’re right. But of Qbs drafted in the last 10 years, Allen would be an absolute complete outlier if he turns into a top qb. Yes, Allen would be an outlier, but honestly, he already is. Can you find a QB who played at a small school against crappy competition and had a poor completion percentage who was drafted in the top of the 1st round--hell, 1st round alone-- who historically came in to contribute to a .500 record in games he started and finished, lead a couple 4th Quarter comebacks and a few game winning drives? I had the same argument your making here as for why we shouldn't draft him. Statistically, he'd be an outlier. I guess the closest example you could find was Rodgers. I guess you can say Cal is closer to Wyoming than it is Alabama as far as talent goes, but not by much. Here's the thing many people forget about that Cal team Rodgers was on. Rodgers had a solid to really good OL in his 2 years at Cal (4 OL he played with in those 2 years were drafted to the NFL) and had FANTASTIC running backs who were FANTASTIC at Cal. Remember, JJ Arrington had over 2,000 yards rushing in 2004, the year Rodgers had nearly 65% completion percentage. And that same year was Marshawn Lynch's Freshman year where he threw in 700+ yards on the ground. Ya think that running game and OL didn't factor into Rodgers' overall play and even more specifically, his completion percentage? And it didn't hurt that he was throwing to a guy in Chase Lyman who would ultimately be drafted in the 4th round. Rodgers had some serious talent surrounding him. Name all the drafted talent surrounding Allen in college... He'll, name the comparative NFL talent Allen had to the 31 other NFL teams on offense his rookie year. Allen played a lot of Hero Ball in college and even his 1st year in Buffalo... often for good reason. I expect talent surrounding him is about to get much better. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 26, 2019 Author Posted February 26, 2019 (edited) On 2/8/2019 at 8:32 AM, C.Biscuit97 said: 1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right? How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that? Here is that game where Allen completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 INT. Interception and drive killer on what was an accurate pass--with pressure right in his face--that should have been a 15+ yard pass and continued the drive at least into a Field Goal opportunity. But nope. You cite that interception like it's meaningful as far as Allen's accuracy is concerned. If that one pass alone were caught, his completion % goes up 5% in that game. Edited February 26, 2019 by transplantbillsfan 1
Mat68 Posted February 27, 2019 Posted February 27, 2019 Dont forget the Dumpster fire that was the Bill's offense in all but 1 game Allen didn't start. Improve his weapons and I thinks his stats improve. Last month of the season Allen was a top 5 Fantasy Qb for what it's worth as well. With an undrafted rookie Wr and mid season street FA as his main weapons.
GreggTX Posted February 27, 2019 Posted February 27, 2019 (edited) Josh does not have very good accuracy. Even on shorter patterns, receivers are having to adjust to poor placement rather than catching the ball in stride and in balance. It's true that our receivers dropped a lot of passes, but a good part of the blame for that rests with Josh. He is exceptional in other aspects, so I really hope he can improve this part of his game. I wonder if he doesn't need to break down his delivery and build it back up. Maybe he needs to sacrifice a little delivery speed for increased accuracy. Edited February 27, 2019 by GreggTX
GreggTX Posted February 27, 2019 Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/20/2019 at 4:56 PM, papazoid said: He completed a league-low 64.6 percent of his throws that traveled five air yards or less and was off target on a league-high 14.2 percent of those passes, per ESPN Stats & Information. The NFL's most (and least) accurate quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus LEAST: 31. Mitchell Trubisky 32. Eli Manning 33. Josh Allen 34. Josh Rosen 35. Lamar Jackson https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/02/pro-football-focus-nfl-quarterback-accuracy-stats Well, don't that suck when your QB ranks 33rd in accuracy in a 32 team league LOL.
JESSEFEFFER Posted February 27, 2019 Posted February 27, 2019 On 2/20/2019 at 5:56 PM, papazoid said: He completed a league-low 64.6 percent of his throws that traveled five air yards or less and was off target on a league-high 14.2 percent of those passes, per ESPN Stats & Information. The NFL's most (and least) accurate quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus LEAST: 31. Mitchell Trubisky 32. Eli Manning 33. Josh Allen 34. Josh Rosen 35. Lamar Jackson https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/02/pro-football-focus-nfl-quarterback-accuracy-stats Well the little bit we see of the bottom of the list is consistent with transplantbillsfan's rather exhaustive study that concluded that Josh Allen's accuracy "issue" is totally consistent with the accuracy "issues" of other rookie QBs both this year and of recent history. None of this seems to indicate indicate that Josh has a fatal flaw accuracy problem, quite the opposite. He is in the mix of typical rookie starters. Either he improves or they move on. Same for all the others.
RyanC883 Posted February 28, 2019 Posted February 28, 2019 I'm totally sick of hearing about Lamar Jackson and Rosen. They are worse than Allen. Particularly, when I hear that Rosen had a "bad supporting cast." He has a HOF WR who is still productive, a great rookie WR, and a pro-bowl RB. 1 1
transplantbillsfan Posted March 1, 2019 Author Posted March 1, 2019 14 hours ago, RyanC883 said: I'm totally sick of hearing about Lamar Jackson and Rosen. They are worse than Allen. Particularly, when I hear that Rosen had a "bad supporting cast." He has a HOF WR who is still productive, a great rookie WR, and a pro-bowl RB. Well amazingly the Cardinals GM was pretty non-committal about Rosen being the Cardinals QB next year when asked before the combine. "...right now..." sure isn't a huge vote of confidence. What a royal screw up that will turn out to be if they draft a QB #1. 1
RyanC883 Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Well amazingly the Cardinals GM was pretty non-committal about Rosen being the Cardinals QB next year when asked before the combine. "...right now..." sure isn't a huge vote of confidence. What a royal screw up that will turn out to be if they draft a QB #1. If I'm the Cardinals, and I think Murray is better than Rosen, I take him #1 and try to trade Rosen somewhere for a 1st. Perhaps the Giants?
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