Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Sorry you don’t like it, but the Bills Super Bowl is always the Draft.

 

Always hyping the future and making excuses for 6-win seasons. 

 

When are are we going to win 11-games Joe?

 

When are we going to have a modern NFL offense? 

 

Where are our playmakers? 

 

There's always the chiefs, buddy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/15/2019 at 1:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? As though if you aren't in the top 3 or top 10 or whatever, you're no good. That doesn't seem the way to think about accuracy at all. There's a threshold of success. If you're accurate above that threshold, you're good. If below, you're not.  (...)

 

Oddly,  Allen's catchable vs. uncatchable passes were virtually identical between his pre-injury-absence and when he came back against the Jags.  I went back and double checked.  I think his decision making just got much better after his injury. I also actually triple checked about his very low tipped/batted pass numbers compared to the other guys. Also, I didn't track uncatchable vs catchable in terms of yards, (though maybe I should have for skeptics), from rewatching every single Allen pass on the year, the vast majority of his uncatchable passes were 10+ yards down the field. He missed some short passes that a lot of folks will cherry pick, but on the whole, his short passes were catchable. I think Allen's about as inaccurate as the typical rookie, but a lot more willing to push the ball down the field, for better or worse.

 

Dang, lot of work there bro!

 

I agree with you that accuracy is a threshold.  I also agree with many who point out that completion percentage is not accuracy.  That said, hopefully we can agree that whatever the cause, we need to see a much higher completion % out of Allen and the Bills next season.  After years of slicing and dicing, I think in the last 20 years, to score as a "success" as an NFL QB, the completion percentage has to rise above 59% (typically that means a few years of lower and a few years >60%; there are three criteria and a YPG "floor").

I'm not sure how you're scoring "uncatchable" passes, but in general, for a pass at or behind the LOS to be a success, it's not enough for it to be a ball the RB or whoever can realistically haul in - it has to be on-point to achieve YAC.  I don't think Allen is there yet, but my biggest thing with him wasn't that he threw them inaccurately - it was that he would haul it down and take off vs. throwing those "within 10 yds" passes. 

[WideNine]

22 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This was one of my biggest takeaways.

 

Along with Allen's inaccuracy, there's a kinda sub-narrative that Allen is reckless with the football.  That he's Favre-like.

 

I saw the opposite.

 

Allen is very careful with the football, but not so careful that he's unwilling to let it rip the way Taylor often was.  But when Allen does throw it, he's throwing it (usually) to places where it'll either be caught or not.

 

And again, you can cherry pick and go find examples where he doesn't do that, but my "batted/tipped balls" category wasn't just balls batted at the line, they were passes batted away before getting to the WR.  I'm sure part of it is also his height and delivery, but watching Allen throw only TWO passes that were batted/tipped was really surprising.

 

If any QB was Favre-like, it was Darnold, who was constantly getting balls batted down on the way to the WR, which is part of the reason Darnold had, by far, the highest percentage of Interceptable passes among all the 7 rookies I've looked at so far.

 

Although the topic was quickly locked out... 

 

I found Chief fans arguing about Mahomes' ball placement when KB was dropping passes from him. Seems that when Mahomes gets passes near their "real" receivers they are normally caught.

 

I found it enlightening that a QB who was considered very successful was having the same issues (drops) that Allen was having trying to throw to one of the same receivers Allen was trying to throw to during the season. Also interesting the way fans were dissecting those Mahomes throws the way we do Allen's.

 

I think the glass is half-full with Allen and if we can get more options for him who can catch - the Bills will be fine. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Haha, this is getting hilarious.  I hope Allen is good but this is cult like.  

The difference between raw QB metrics that purport to address accuracy and a detailed examination of what actually happened on a per-play basis is literally the entire point of the whole thread. If you don’t like it, that’s fine and entirely your prerogative. But misrepresenting what’s being discussed isn’t hilarious, it’s dishonest and unproductive.

[Dr. Who]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The difference between raw QB metrics that purport to address accuracy and a detailed examination of what actually happened on a per-play basis is literally the entire point of the whole thread. If you don’t like it, that’s fine and entirely your prerogative. But misrepresenting what’s being discussed isn’t hilarious, it’s dishonest and unproductive.

I concur. To ascribe cult-behavior to someone is to assert irrational group think. Such derisive dismissal is rarely warranted in a blanket manner. So far as I can tell, the majority of the posts claiming reasons to be optimistic about Josh Allen meet the minimum threshold of plausibility. Fine to find a particular argument less than persuasive. No one is compelling those who don't like the topic or who are convinced otherwise to read the thread. Josh Allen's critics have a habitual take and there's an effort here to refute the claim. That's part of rational dialectics.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I concur. To ascribe cult-behavior to someone is to assert irrational group think. Such derisive dismissal is rarely warranted in a blanket manner. So far as I can tell, the majority of the posts claiming reasons to be optimistic about Josh Allen meet the minimum threshold of plausibility. Fine to find a particular argument less than persuasive. No one is compelling those who don't like the topic or who are convinced otherwise to read the thread. Josh Allen's critics have a habitual take and there's an effort here to refute the claim. That's part of rational dialectics.

Well put.

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

I concur. To ascribe cult-behavior to someone is to assert irrational group think. Such derisive dismissal is rarely warranted in a blanket manner. So far as I can tell, the majority of the posts claiming reasons to be optimistic about Josh Allen meet the minimum threshold of plausibility. Fine to find a particular argument less than persuasive. No one is compelling those who don't like the topic or who are convinced otherwise to read the thread. Josh Allen's critics have a habitual take and there's an effort here to refute the claim. That's part of rational dialectics.

I believe there are some who formed a conclusion about Allen when drafted, that he would not be good.  And they then want to either twist data to meet their bias or ignore data that does not correspond.  Basically confirmation bias.  Why?  Unfortunately so they can boast and say I told you so in a chat room.

 

Everyone should understand by nowAllen has positives but also things to work on.  They should also agree he is not nearly a finished product.  And for the love of God we should all agree at long last that accuracy is not completion percentage.  Completion percentage will involve more timely reading of defenses, taking shorter routes, better receiving/catching.  And yes precise delivery of passes.

[GreggTX]

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

[oldmanfan]

Just now, GreggTX said:

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

If you go back and read, you'll find the PFF measures are ill defined.

[ALF]

Update on Rosen

 

Cardinals QB Josh Rosen OK after car accident

 

Rosen posted a picture on Instagram of his Tesla with a massive dent in the rear driver's side door. The 22-year-old noted in the post he was "okay."

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001018205/article/cardinals-qb-josh-rosen-ok-after-car-accident

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, ALF said:

Update on Rosen

 

Cardinals QB Josh Rosen OK after car accident

 

Rosen posted a picture on Instagram of his Tesla with a massive dent in the rear driver's side door. The 22-year-old noted in the post he was "okay."

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001018205/article/cardinals-qb-josh-rosen-ok-after-car-accident

Couple feet forward of that and Rosen might not be here today - scary stuff.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

On 2/16/2019 at 7:31 PM, GreggTX said:

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

 

This is such a belligerently ignorant response.  The OP has obviously done a good deal of work, from analyzing a number of rookie quarterbacks to disputing other methodologies (including pff).  You literally dismiss all of that work without even the slightest attempt to engage.  

 

You are the worst. 

[papazoid]

you lost me at....Allen is NOT inaccurate.....lol

 

yes he is, but that weakness is offset by some strengths

 

he was ranked 32nd in passer rating and 24th in total QBR ….he's got a long ways to go.

 

he will be a solid starter for many years, he will get better, accuracy will likely prevent him from be a Top 10 QB

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, papazoid said:

you lost me at....Allen is NOT inaccurate.....lol

 

yes he is, but that weakness is offset by some strengths

 

he was ranked 32nd in passer rating and 24th in total QBR ….he's got a long ways to go.

 

he will be a solid starter for many years, he will get better, accuracy will likely prevent him from be a Top 10 QB

Here are the problems with your take that the OP, I and others have addressed repeatedly and that you seemingly choose to ignore:

 

1.  You confuse passer ratings with accuracy; they are not the same thing.

2.  You don't define accuracy, whereas the OP does in his exhaustive research of not only Allen but many other young QBs.

3.  You likely confuse accuracy and precision

4.  You show no data to support your own claim, other than rankings that do not really test accuracy. 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 2/16/2019 at 2:31 PM, GreggTX said:

Nonsense. He's inaccurate. Aside from the eyeball test, PFF did an extensive study and Allen ranked at the bottom of NFL starting QB's. You can fool yourself all you want, but it doesn't change facts.

 

That said, every other aspect of his game is strong except reading defenses, which he'll get better at. If he can improve his accuracy at all levels (short, medium, long) he could be very good.

 

I know what PFF did.

 

I even cite it in the OP.

 

I did my own study that's been going on since season's end and covered every single pass of 7 highly regarded rookie QBs, past and present. And my own findings are simply this:

 

If Josh Allen was inaccurate as a rookie, so we're those 6 other QBs I looked at, and Rosen and Wentz (after his 1st 4 games) were very inaccurate.

Edited February 18, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[McBean]

On 1/15/2019 at 1:38 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

First off, about accuracy: why do we talk about it like it's an Olympic medal? As though if you aren't in the top 3 or top 10 or whatever, you're no good. That doesn't seem the way to think about accuracy at all. There's a threshold of success. If you're accurate above that threshold, you're good. If below, you're not.

 

Regardless, I figured examining Allen's accuracy in comparison to his peers would help determine whether he truly somehow has the severe accuracy problems portrayed by the national media. I only did the 4 other rookies with Allen, not the 31 other starters. Would anyone expect Josh Allen or Sam Darnold or any of the 5 rookies to be as accurate as Drew Brees or Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers?

They're rookies. That's why the 5 rookies are my ultimate points of comparison. And part of the point was also anecdotal. Just looking at Darnold and Allen, you see Darnold just throw some real head-scratchers that wind up being tipped or batted. These types of throws I so very rarely saw with Allen that I just didn't consider them negative throws. Darnold showed that those throws should largely be weighed negatively, so I adjusted. Methodology for all QBs were the same.
 

Rookies in the NFL are peers who have the same short offseason to work and, in the case of all 5 rookies, spent the entire offseason as presumed backups, taking 2nd and 3rd string snaps. Allen was talked about and is still talked about consistently as the rookie QB who has a serious accuracy problem, not the other guys. I wanted to test that narrative with my own eyes, so before this post reaches the TLDR category for the impatient, here were the final %s I came up with after watching every single pass of all 5 rookie QBs, arranged from best to worst.

 

UPDATE: I'm starting to go through some previous rookies, too.  Primarily I'm focusing on the "good rookies," meaning rookies who were considered as having pretty good rookie seasons.  So I started with Watson, as you can now see.

 

Catchable balls excluding Throwaways

1) Darnold - 79.5% (2019)
2) Allen -78.1% (2019)

3) Wentz - 77% (2016)
4) Mayfield -76.6% (2019)

5) Watson- 75.1% (2018)
6) Jackson -72.7% (2019)
7) Rosen - 71.6% (2019)

 

Throwaway/Spike %

1) Allen - 7.1% (2018)
2) Jackson -6% (2018)
3) Rosen - 5.8% (2018)
4) Darnold - 5.5% (2018)

5) Watson- 3.4% (2017)
6)) Mayfield -3.2% (2018)

7) Wentz - 2.6% (2016)

 

Interceptable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes

 

1) Wentz - 6.9% (2016)

2) Mayfield - 7.6% (2018)
3) Jackson - 8.5% (2018)
4) Allen - 8.7% (2018)
5) Rosen - 9.1% (2018)

6) Watson- 10.7% (2017)
7) Darnold - 11.2% (2018)

 

Catchable pass % Excluding BOTH Throwaways AND batted-tipped passes

1) Darnold - 84.5% (2018)
2) Mayfield - 82.2% (2018)

3) Wentz - 81.4% (2016)
4) Jackson - 79.5% (2018)
5) Allen - 78.6% (2018)
6) Watson- 77.9%  (2017)

7) Rosen - 75.5% (2018)

 

 

Here's the breakdown.

 

Josh Allen

Total passes: 320

Catchable passes: 232

Uncatchable passes: 63

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 2

Interceptable passes: 26

 

Sam Darnold

Total passes: 414

Catchable passes: 311

Uncatchable passes: 57

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 23

Interceptable passes: 44

 

Lamar Jackson

Total passes: 170

Catchable passes: 136

Uncatchable passes: 35

Throwaway/Spikes: 12

Tipped/batted passes: 16

Interceptable passes: 16

 

Baker Mayfield

Total passes: 486

Catchable passes: 360

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 36

 

Josh Rosen

Total passes: 265

Catchable passes: 86

Throwaway/Spikes: 23

Tipped/batted passes: 19

Interceptable passes: 34

 

Deshaun Watson

Total passes: 204

Catchable passes: 148

Throwaway/Spikes: 7

Tipped/batted passes: 7

Interceptable passes: 21

 

Carson Wentz 

Total passes: 607

Catchable passes: 455

Throwaway/Spikes: 16

Tipped/Batted passes: 32

Interceptable passes: 41

 

 

I have game by game breakdowns for every QB.

 

Like for Allen, week 16 against the Pats:

 

Catchable passes: 9 (Foster slips on one of these attempts that I thought was catchable)

Uncatchable passes:7 (One of these is a back shoulder fade to Zay that he never turns for that I marked uncatchable)

Throwaways: 3 (one of these is the near Safety Allen escaped from and flipped the ball away to the sidelines)

 

Tipped/Batted passes: 0

Interceptable passes: 2

 

 

or week 17 for Allen:

 

Catchable passes: 18

 

Uncatchable passes: 6

 

Throwaways: 2  (one of these was thrown into the ground)

 

Tipped/batted passes: 0

 

Interceptable passes: 1

 

Part of the reason I decided to go through this endeavor was because I saw this tweet 

And then seeing this:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/

 

Kinda makes me think this is the reality

 

First off, let me explain my "methodology," so to speak...  I rewatched each "condensed" version of all of every rookie's games and made a judgment call on whether their incompletions were catchable or uncatchable.

 

That's it.  

 

No, I didn't do Coach's film, but I realize that would have been better, but also much more time consuming.  When there was a real question on a throw, gamepass has a slow motion option. This process took a few weeks to get through all 5 rookies.

 

I'm not judging ball placement, just whether the WR/TE/RB could reasonably have made a catch or not... even a great catch.  If he had a chance, I labelled it as "catchable."  If not, I labelled it as "uncatchable." 

 

Ball hits palm (or would with reasonable adjustment) = Catchable

 

Ball hits fingertips of outstretched arms or beyond = Uncatchable

 

That Clay non-catch in the EZ at the end of the Miami game is absolutely catchable because it's a catch you see NFL WRs and TEs across the league make frequently. It may not be Charles Clay catchable, but it's catchable.

 

I'm not making judgement calls on miscommunication or anything because I think that type of thing will largely even out in the end. So when I looked at the wide open Zay Jones miss in the back of the end zone in the Miami game--which we now know from post game interviews was a miscommunication where Allen assumed Jones was going to "sit" when he threw it--I labelled it as uncatchable. I saw one of those plays in Darnold's 2nd game that appears to also be a miscommunication.

So, my process is something you're obviously free to criticize, but I'm using the same process for all the rookies.

 

I tried to be as absolutely unbiased as I could be, but there's inherent subjectivity to this exercise. But do you agree that all (roughly) 35 of these passes are catchable?

 

 

 

And that's missing a good number, believe me. Remember Allen's interception in the Titans game that went right between Andre Holmes hands? Yeah... catchable... not Interceptable.

 

Now, on top of that, I also counted "throwaways" and "tipped/batted balls."

I also kept track of interceptable passes.  Each interceptable pass was also either a catchable pass, uncatchable pass, or tipped/batted ball for obvious reasons.  

I think it's important to discard throwaways when considering a QB's accuracy... and yes yes yes, I know that "ball placement is part of this equation, but that's highly highly highly subjective... much moreso than just whether a pass is catchable or not.

 

This is anecdotal, but I can tell you this, a huge number of Allen's catchable incompletions were targeting the liabilities of Kelvin Benjamin, Andre Holmes, and Charles Clay.

 

Oddly,  Allen's catchable vs. uncatchable passes were virtually identical between his pre-injury-absence and when he came back against the Jags.  I went back and double checked.  I think his decision making just got much better after his injury. I also actually triple checked about his very low tipped/batted pass numbers compared to the other guys. Also, I didn't track uncatchable vs catchable in terms of yards, (though maybe I should have for skeptics), from rewatching every single Allen pass on the year, the vast majority of his uncatchable passes were 10+ yards down the field. He missed some short passes that a lot of folks will cherry pick, but on the whole, his short passes were catchable. I think Allen's about as inaccurate as the typical rookie, but a lot more willing to push the ball down the field, for better or worse.

 

 

I think it's worth pointing out that passes where QB throws it to a WR and a DB steps in front to intercept it, but can't hang on, I'm counting in the category of "tipped/batted balls" along with obviously "Interceptable." Holy CRAP does Darnold throw a lot of those! These are the types of bad throws where maybe a QB just doesn't see a guy closing in that don't get intercepted, they just end up being passes defensed. This very rarely happened with Allen, but happened really frequently with Darnold.

 

The narrative seems to be that Allen succumbs to "Hero Ball" too much and takes too many risks with the football. I think there might be an argument to be made there up until he throws the football, but once Allen throws it, he appears to be the most conscientious of defenders in the realm of his intended target.

To me this idea that Allen is like Brett Favre--in terms of being a gunslinger--just doesn't hold water. Yes, he's consistently throwing farther than the other rookie QBs... actually farther than any other QB in the NFL. But he's not making a lot of risky throws. That's Darnold and Mayfield.

And while a lot of people look at those risky throws as indicative of better QB play, I'll give you these Next Gen stats of Aggressiveness %. Here's how it's defined:

Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

Looks to me like being aggressive with the football is something Josh Allen is not, and that may not be a bad thing based on the QBs accompanying him on the list.

 

The work so many stress Allen needs to do in the offseason regarding mechanics and just improving as a pocket passer is Jackson ×100. Baltimore does some brilliant stuff on offense in order to get WRs consistently pretty wide open and/or providing Jackson with just a single read passing wise. If anyone reminds me of Tebow this year, it's Jackson, and it's not even close.

 

Mayfield, like you might expect--I did--was the best passer of the bunch. His 2nd half of the year was much stronger than the 1st. Damn does he get a lot of balls batted at the line, though.

 

Rosen was pretty bad. He honestly might get the David Carr effect long term and never reach his potential largely because of the talent around him, honestly.

 

 

 

 

I'll be happy to answer any questions about my numbers, but I would encourage you to try this exercise yourself if you have those serious doubts. But if I were to ask you if you'd be happy with a QB who threw catchable footballs 78.1% of the time, would you be happy?

 

But according to Jon Ledyard, Jeremy White, and Mike Schoop, he sucks.

 

Don’t know what to believe anymore? ?

[Bangarang]

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

[ndirish1978]

Thanks for all the effort you put into this @transplantbillsfan

 

I'd like to see Josh improve dramatically in regards to his short passes, but you're right he's not as bad as people make him out to be accuracy-wise. That throwaway percentage is ungodly. Hopefully we can support Josh with an actual OL this year rather than a bunch of mannequins dressed in jerseys. 

[papazoid]

52 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

lol

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Bangarang said:

The same people that argued against the eye ball test in favor of the stats in regards to Tyrod are now the same ones arguing against the stats in favor of the eye ball test when it comes to Allen.

 

No one is saying stats don't matter, but there is no stat that measures accuracy. That's the whole point of this thread. That his accuracy isn't as bad as people think. Not sure why so many people have a hard time with that concept?