transplantbillsfan Posted February 15, 2019 Author Posted February 15, 2019 3 hours ago, BillsSB2020 said: Fair enough and I appreciate all the work you put into this thread pal. I'm sure you've watched much more of Josh Rosen than I have. But based on that small sample, I saw more than one occasion where he had a guy open in the middle and delivered the ball properly but just didn't have the zip and the play was broken up. I think that's going to be a major issue for him. Perhaps if he gets better protection to step into throws, he'll be able to muster up some increased velocity. Either way, much rather have Josh (Allen) Me too
transplantbillsfan Posted February 15, 2019 Author Posted February 15, 2019 3 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said: I guess I'll just leave this here. The best thing in there is when Dilfer specifically says that accuracy is, more than anything else, an "offensive system metric" and a "processing metric." Nailed it!
BringBackFlutie Posted February 15, 2019 Posted February 15, 2019 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: The best thing in there is when Dilfer specifically says that accuracy is, more than anything else, an "offensive system metric" and a "processing metric." Nailed it! It's what you, indy, and others have been saying. Higher completion percentage is often a simple matter of processing things in a way that you pick the throw with a better chance of completion more often. I'm pretty sure Beane said the exact same thing. Something like, "we're gonna work with Josh so that he understands taking more throws that will turn into completions." ...and by the way- raw rookie QBs almost never process reads fully. You can teach that. What you can't teach is seeing it, registering it. and instantly releasing to a spot where the wr can make a break at the ball. Josh already does this, which is so much to be excited about. So, in the context of Josh Allen, low completion percentage is not only a poor indicator of accuracy, but should be expected, and a bit of a relief to be his only "problem." 2 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 15, 2019 Author Posted February 15, 2019 53 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said: It's what you, indy, and others have been saying. Higher completion percentage is often a simple matter of processing things in a way that you pick the throw with a better chance of completion more often. I'm pretty sure Beane said the exact same thing. Something like, "we're gonna work with Josh so that he understands taking more throws that will turn into completions." ...and by the way- raw rookie QBs almost never process reads fully. You can teach that. What you can't teach is seeing it, registering it. and instantly releasing to a spot where the wr can make a break at the ball. Josh already does this, which is so much to be excited about. So, in the context of Josh Allen, low completion percentage is not only a poor indicator of accuracy, but should be expected, and a bit of a relief to be his only "problem." Very well said 2
Doc Brown Posted February 15, 2019 Posted February 15, 2019 I think people are overthinking this. My biggest takeaway from the last season is that Josh Allen looked vastly improved after returning from his injury. He looked more comfortable in the pocket. He made better decisions. He threw a lot of nice balls that better WR's would have caught putting his completion percentage near 60% which is where I expect him to be throughout his career (similar to Newton, Favre, and Stafford) that people like to compare him with. I still expect him to be wildly inaccurate on three or four throws a game, but his arm strength and scrambling ability will more than make up for it. At least I hope. 3
Bring it Posted February 15, 2019 Posted February 15, 2019 Interesting stuff! Thanks for putting in the work. I agree that Allen isn’t that inaccurate and doesn’t deserve the label as such. However he does have much he can improve on such as accuracy and touch on short passes. Maybe it’s the velocity on his passes is the reason for the drops? The one thing that has stood out from other rookies is that he rarely puts his throw in a spot where the defender can get a hand on it. Definitely better than Darnold or even Mayfield in that way. And his yards per attempt is up there pretty good too.I have been very impressed with Josh so far!
transplantbillsfan Posted February 15, 2019 Author Posted February 15, 2019 10 hours ago, Bring it said: Interesting stuff! Thanks for putting in the work. I agree that Allen isn’t that inaccurate and doesn’t deserve the label as such. However he does have much he can improve on such as accuracy and touch on short passes. Maybe it’s the velocity on his passes is the reason for the drops? The one thing that has stood out from other rookies is that he rarely puts his throw in a spot where the defender can get a hand on it. Definitely better than Darnold or even Mayfield in that way. And his yards per attempt is up there pretty good too.I have been very impressed with Josh so far! This was one of my biggest takeaways. Along with Allen's inaccuracy, there's a kinda sub-narrative that Allen is reckless with the football. That he's Favre-like. I saw the opposite. Allen is very careful with the football, but not so careful that he's unwilling to let it rip the way Taylor often was. But when Allen does throw it, he's throwing it (usually) to places where it'll either be caught or not. And again, you can cherry pick and go find examples where he doesn't do that, but my "batted/tipped balls" category wasn't just balls batted at the line, they were passes batted away before getting to the WR. I'm sure part of it is also his height and delivery, but watching Allen throw only TWO passes that were batted/tipped was really surprising. If any QB was Favre-like, it was Darnold, who was constantly getting balls batted down on the way to the WR, which is part of the reason Darnold had, by far, the highest percentage of Interceptable passes among all the 7 rookies I've looked at so far.
dlonce Posted February 15, 2019 Posted February 15, 2019 Great work by the OP, thank you. It seems we are in the generation of statistics. I laugh at ESPNs use of useless stats,same with all of these Internet sports writers. I honestly never looked at completion percentage as a pre cursor for success. A QB was judged by winning. A QB was judged by game winning drives and making plays when needed. Now it’s completion percentage and accuracy. Absurd. What was Jim Kelly’s completion percentage? I couldn’t care less but I bet it was below 60%. I do not care about Mahommes touch. His touch doesn’t win football games. It’s about making reads in their system, making plays and being smart. If Allen has a 50% completion percentage, yet wins, that is all that matters. It’s the plays made with those 50% completions and what happens outside of those completions. All this Mahommes love is way out of hand. Let’s see what happens in the upcoming year before anointing him Jesus Christ. We have seen this movie before. QB plays lights out in first year starting, then year two comes and said QB is ineffective.
Buffalo Junction Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 2:15 AM, Doc Brown said: I think people are overthinking this. My biggest takeaway from the last season is that Josh Allen looked vastly improved after returning from his injury. He looked more comfortable in the pocket. He made better decisions. This is a key point that a fair amount of people neglect to mention on the national level, and it’s a critical component moving forward. Allen is not only coachable, but has the intelligence and work ethic for the coaching to be effective. Simply put, he’s going to be a better QB next year, particularly if he spends the off-season making his footwork instinctual and improving his touch. Also, this “coachable” trait seems to be something McBeane drafts for... They’re looking for intelligent guys with drive and physical tools. I think moving forward we will see them continue this trend where they’ll take the “coachable” prototype in the first two rounds despite inconsistency in college performance or lack of elite competition.
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 17 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: This was one of my biggest takeaways. Along with Allen's inaccuracy, there's a kinda sub-narrative that Allen is reckless with the football. That he's Favre-like. I saw the opposite. Allen is very careful with the football, but not so careful that he's unwilling to let it rip the way Taylor often was. But when Allen does throw it, he's throwing it (usually) to places where it'll either be caught or not. And again, you can cherry pick and go find examples where he doesn't do that, but my "batted/tipped balls" category wasn't just balls batted at the line, they were passes batted away before getting to the WR. I'm sure part of it is also his height and delivery, but watching Allen throw only TWO passes that were batted/tipped was really surprising. If any QB was Favre-like, it was Darnold, who was constantly getting balls batted down on the way to the WR, which is part of the reason Darnold had, by far, the highest percentage of Interceptable passes among all the 7 rookies I've looked at so far. Allen int % 3.8 darnold int % 3.6 i respect you for hyping up Allen. I was a huge homer and wish I could just blindly but into everything and ignore the negative stuff. But don’t just make up things. It’s disingenuous. 1
Straight Hucklebuck Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 The fans have adopted the Bills mindset. Hopelessly compelled to sell hype and hope when presented with mediocre results.
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said: The fans have adopted the Bills mindset. Hopelessly compelled to sell hype and hope when presented with mediocre results.
Kangaxx Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 50 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Allen int % 3.8 darnold int % 3.6 i respect you for hyping up Allen. I was a huge homer and wish I could just blindly but into everything and ignore the negative stuff. But don’t just make up things. It’s disingenuous. Not everyone who likes Allen or views things differently from you deserves to be given the label "Homer".
GoBills808 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 54 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Allen int % 3.8 darnold int % 3.6 i respect you for hyping up Allen. I was a huge homer and wish I could just blindly but into everything and ignore the negative stuff. But don’t just make up things. It’s disingenuous. Try reading: he’s looking at interceptable passes, not INT ratio.
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Try reading: he’s looking at interceptable passes, not INT ratio. Haha, this is getting hilarious. I hope Allen is good but this is cult like. 1
billmon06 Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 This is remarkably researched, and I LOVE Josh Allen. I watched him play in Laramie and have been able to watch much of his pro career on tv so far. The bottom line is...Josh Allen is an inaccurate. passer. There's really no debate on that subject. However, with the addition of competent interior linemen and possession receivers, he can reach 60%-65% completion percentage...the magic number according to most analytic experts. But in my mind his completion percentage should carry less weight than most, because Allen's completions have game changing potential. That's just me, though. The bottom line is, Allen's numbers do need to improve to satisfy the skeptics. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 16, 2019 Author Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Allen int % 3.8 darnold int % 3.6 i respect you for hyping up Allen. I was a huge homer and wish I could just blindly but into everything and ignore the negative stuff. But don’t just make up things. It’s disingenuous. Go back to the Titans game and find the highlight of Allen's interception in that game, come back, and let's talk more about the stats you're so obsessed with. NFL Next Gen stats has an interesting metric called Aggressiveness % that I actually referenced in the OP. Since I'm sure you didn't see it, here's the link: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness Aggressiveness (AGG%) Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts. Allen is 29th... one of the least aggressive QBs in the NFL. Notice who the rookies are in the top 5. And that absolutely jives with my numbers, what I saw, and the statement you just ignorantly labelled a lie.
Real McClappy Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 (edited) Thanks Transplant, this is so much more refreshing than the old Tyrod stats you would pound in the sand that he was a good QB. from here it's really progression for me. Can Allen improve and become consistent over the next couple of seasons if and when we surround him with proper a O-line, WR core, TE and running game? I damn hope so! He played pretty well his first season IMO with the cards he was dealt. The progression when he came back from injury was and is very encouraging alone the last 3-4 weeks. Again, thank you for putting this together. it just enforces what my eyes without stats were telling me. Edited February 16, 2019 by Real McCoy
Straight Hucklebuck Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Joe in Winslow said: Sorry you don’t like it, but the Bills Super Bowl is always the Draft. Always hyping the future and making excuses for 6-win seasons. When are are we going to win 11-games Joe? When are we going to have a modern NFL offense? Where are our playmakers?
Foxx Posted February 16, 2019 Posted February 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Real McCoy said: Thanks Transplant, this is so much more refreshing than the old Tyrod stats you would pound in the sand that he was a good QB. ... same old, same old. still pounding crap into the sand, the only thing different is the specific object.
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