Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[WideNine]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes, but 173 yards passing per game just won't do.

Tack on a 60 yard bomb that is caught, not lost in the sun, or just through the hands, and the numbers aren't all that bad.

 

The kid will be fine, but I get it. The more I read about his mental makeup the more I think he is just super-competitive and wants to hit home runs, not singles and doubles.

 

So many folks focusing on Allen's play when the Bills were just about dead last rushing the ball sans Allen runs.

 

He could use a bit of help on offense if the Bilks want to have more possession time. That is not all on Allen.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, WideNine said:

Tack on a 60 yard bomb that is caught, not lost in the sun, or just through the hands, and the numbers aren't all that bad.

 

Yes, well that's exactly the point though, right?

 

We need perfect passes to be caught rather than lost in the Sun as Foster did, or batted high into the air and intercepted as Holmes did, or go directly through the outstretched hands of a well covered Logan Thomas in the End Zone, or...

 

I think that 172 yards passing yards per game would have been well over 200 if our WRs caught even half of these passes

 

...and even with the 35 passes in there, you still don't see other blatant drops like the Holmes one in the Titans game that he dropped right into a defender's arms for an INT.

[WideNine]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yes, well that's exactly the point though, right?

 

We need perfect passes to be caught rather than lost in the Sun as Foster did, or batted high into the air and intercepted as Holmes did, or go directly through the outstretched hands of a well covered Logan Thomas in the End Zone, or...

 

I think that 172 yards passing yards per game would have been well over 200 if our WRs caught even half of these passes

 

...and even with the 35 passes in there, you still don't see other blatant drops like the Holmes one in the Titans game that he dropped right into a defender's arms for an INT.

 

In all fairness to some of our receivers, on more than half those drops a case could be made for PI's. They were getting mugged. I remember a few years ago the league cracked down on contact and Seattle and NE were flagged the most that year as that is how their db's were coached to play.

 

The league wanted to open up scoring, much like the argument with obstruction in hockey keeping the skill players from showing their stuff. Just like hockey, the rule enforcement fades over the course of a season and disappears altogether during playoffs.

 

So you have to accept that is the way it is going to be more often than not and find the guys that can catch contested throws as it seems the league has reverted and the rule is rarely and subjectively enforced again.

 

It can be a game changer calling a PI on a play, especially a deep throw so perhaps officials are just reluctant to hand those out....seems that way at least when you consider the blatant PI noncall that New Orleans had during their playoff game.

[transplantbillsfan]

I'm now 13 games into Wentz, who's really like doing Allen's because he has pretty much twice the pass attempts in his rookie year as Allen.  Just under 500 pass attempts in:

 

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 77.6%

 

Throwaway/Spike %: 2.3%

 

Interceptable Pass %: 6.6%

 

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 82.4%

 

 

I'm moving at more of a snail's pace because Wentz has so many passes, so I'm going to update the OP with these 13 games now and then I'll do it again when I'm done with Wentz, which should be this week.

 

Who should I do next?

 

Dak?

 

Winston?

 

Luck?

 

Wilson?

[C.Biscuit97]

On 2/11/2019 at 7:50 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well...

 

 

This guy definitely is...

 

 

and this guy probably is.

Actually, I was pointing out if someone has a very bad college % at every level of football, they struggle with accuracy.  If Allen was a 65% passer one year and then 52% another year, then you can totally blame everything on his teammates.  

 

Its great you have your conclusion that Allen isn’t as inaccurate as 52% would suggest.  But at some point, you can’t ignore years of data.  Of any qbs drafred in the top 10 of the last 7 years,  none of them had a lower college completion than Allen.  So when he goes 52% in the nfl, it shouldn’t be a surprise.  You can do this for every qb, good or bad, and find ways to boost their “accuracy .”  You need to prove it on the field.  At some point in his career, Allen needs to get over the 60% mark.  It’s like a baseball player who is a .250 hitter but fans swear he has a swing that can make him a .300 hitter.  After five years of hitting .250 or lower, people need to just stop finding excuses and the player just needs to do it. 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Actually, I was pointing out if someone has a very bad college % at every level of football, they struggle with accuracy.  If Allen was a 65% passer one year and then 52% another year, then you can totally blame everything on his teammates.  

 

He played High School at an unrecognizable rural school, at a JuCo and then at Wyoming devoid of talent.

 

I'm sorry, he played his 1st year with a Center and RB drafted in the back half of the draft and a WR who made the Bears as a UDFA.

 

But ultimately after we drafted Allen and you really go back and watch him, his low completion percentage was a combination of the talent around him and him trying to play Hero Ball with plays breaking down along with some lower body mechanical problems, which he improved on tremendously working with Palmer and will hopefully improve even more this offseason.

 

Regardless, I don't care about how accurate he was in college because it's not relevant at this point. At this point he's pretty much as accurate as 6 other notable 1st round rookie QBs who've come into the NFL in the last 3 years, and we should all be encouraged by what he's shown, despite his completion percentage not reflecting that accuracy.

 

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

 

Its great you have your conclusion that Allen isn’t as inaccurate as 52% would suggest.  But at some point, you can’t ignore years of data.  Of any qbs drafred in the top 10 of the last 7 years,  none of them had a lower college completion than Allen.  So when he goes 52% in the nfl, it shouldn’t be a surprise.  You can do this for every qb, good or bad, and find ways to boost their “accuracy .”  You need to prove it on the field.  At some point in his career, Allen needs to get over the 60% mark.  It’s like a baseball player who is a .250 hitter but fans swear he has a swing that can make him a .300 hitter.  After five years of hitting .250 or lower, people need to just stop finding excuses and the player just needs to do it. 

 

 

I can ignore past data because it's irrelevant at this point and I thoroughly looked at what's relevant.

 

Have you chosen to do that, yet, rather than screaming from a mountaintop, "But, but his completion percentage!!!"?

 

Allen does need to prove it on the field. I don't know what the exact completion percentage number is he's gotta reach as a benchmark. Might be 60%. Or 62%. Or 58%. Or 64%.

 

Part of all that is also really how far he's throwing downfield because downfield throws are lower percentage throws. 

 

And gee, guess which QB in the NFL threw downfield more than any other QB in the NFL, as reflected in having the highest Air Yards per Attempt?

 

I'll give you a hint, he played for the Bills in 2018 at QB and it wasn't Peterman, Barkley or Anderson...

[BillsSB2020]

On 2/11/2019 at 12:20 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't see the likeness to be honest but yes he did and hopefully the Bills do something similar and that helps Josh take a step too. 

I really hope he's not Mitchell Trubisky. I think he's got more talent. Trubisky doesn't seem to have the it factor but that's my opinion of course. Many of his completions appear to be really easy tosses based on terrific play design.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BillsSB2020 said:

I really hope he's not Mitchell Trubisky. I think he's got more talent. Trubisky doesn't seem to have the it factor but that's my opinion of course. Many of his completions appear to be really easy tosses based on terrific play design.

 

I think Gunner was solely referring to the apparent improved play and corresponding increased production and efficiency in year 2, not style of play.

[transplantbillsfan]

I guess Josh maybe does have an accuracy problem

 

[transplantbillsfan]

So I just finished Wentz and put him in the original numbers.

 

Geez he was really great for the 1st 5 games and then close to Rosen level, maybe even worse, after that point.

 

I'm really in disbelief at how many batted/tipped balls I'm seeing from all QBs not named Allen.  

 

Is Allen really that much taller than all these other guys?  We know his arm is stronger so it gives DBs less opportunity to go after it mid-flight, but it's kinda crazy the amount of tipped/batted balls I'm seeing with all these other QBs.  I guess I just assumed with Wentz's comparative size and athleticism to Allen, we'd see that number closer to Allen's number.

[transplantbillsfan]

I'll move onto Dak, next.

 

Considering he had a nearly 68% completion %, I'm wondering how much help his WRs were to him.  I think we already know his OL was a tremendous help.

[BillsSB2020]

6 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I guess Josh maybe does have an accuracy problem

 

I still have some reservations about Allen, but I'd be much less optimistic had we drafted Rosen. The eye test matches this fellas analysis. There just isn't any zip. I think arm strength became an UNDERRATED attribute because of Tom Brady. A)His arm was stronger than most believed and B)He's a once in a lifetime pre snap QB. Arm strength isn't everything, but it matters as we bore witness to with Peterman.

[transplantbillsfan]

37 minutes ago, BillsSB2020 said:

I still have some reservations about Allen, but I'd be much less optimistic had we drafted Rosen. The eye test matches this fellas analysis. There just isn't any zip. I think arm strength became an UNDERRATED attribute because of Tom Brady. A)His arm was stronger than most believed and B)He's a once in a lifetime pre snap QB. Arm strength isn't everything, but it matters as we bore witness to with Peterman.

 

I watched Rosen and must admit I was surprised how mediocre he looked in terms of everything considering he was advertised as the most pro-ready guy.

 

I actually think Fahey's statements there are a bit ridiculous.  Rosen can throw.  Fahey grows enamored with certain QBs and that ends up weirdly clouding his judgment on other QBs.

 

That said, Rosen was the most inaccurate of all the other QBs I've watched.

 

But honestly, I don't think it's fair to even throw Rosen out the window.  Wentz in his rookie year threw significantly more than any of the other rookies this year, and if you throw out Wentz's first 4 games in his rookie year where he had one of the hottest starts you'll probably ever see out of a rookie, just look at the insane difference between his first 4 games vs. his last 12:

 

1st 4 games

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 85.4%

Last 12 games

Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 77.6%

 

1st 4 games

Throwaway/Spike %: 2.3%

Last 12 games

Throwaway/Spike %: 3%

 

1st 4 games

Interceptable Pass %: 6.6%

Last 12 games

Interceptable Pass %: 6%

 

1st 4 games

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 90.2%

Last 12 games

Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 78.9%

[BillsSB2020]

Fair enough and I appreciate all the work you put into this thread pal.

 

I'm sure you've watched much more of Josh Rosen than I have. But based on that small sample, I saw more than one occasion where he had a guy open in the middle and delivered the ball properly but just didn't have the zip and the play was broken up. I think that's going to be a major issue for him. Perhaps if he gets better protection to step into throws, he'll be able to muster up some increased velocity.

 

Either way, much rather have Josh (Allen)

[BringBackFlutie]

 

 

I guess I'll just leave this here.

[BidsJr]

I hadn't seen that video.  Thanks.  It was awesome.

[Mat68]

Good or bad rookie is not going determine how the individual players career will be.  What gives me optimism is he was the best player on offense by any level of measure when he returned from his injury.   In a few games I will go as far as to say he was the best player on the field.  He is not where he needs to be but I see a possible incredible future.  How is he protected and developed going forward will be the question.

Edited February 15, 2019 by Mat68

[K-9]

“Feels like Favre. Feels like Elway.” 

 

I have to agree. What impressed me most this year was Allen’s personality on the field. He has a certain command out there. Hope he starts looking like Favre and Elway as well as feeling like them. 

 

[WideNine]

On 1/15/2019 at 8:04 AM, C.Biscuit97 said:

1) that was a lot of work so I salute you

 

2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl.  When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault?  I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history.  At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else?

 

3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs.  The 60% was higher than their career average.  

 

4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit.  He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season.  Did he suddenly get better?  Or does Luck throw a more catchable football?  This is a thing posters overlook.  As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball.  This league is about touch.  What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes.  Allen hasn’t shown that.

 

allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old.  He isn’t that accurate.  Accept it.  He needs to improve.  Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs.  But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. 

 

Dunno about the Ebron reference.

 

I don't think I ever caught Ebron saying that about Stafford, but will revise opinion if you have a quote.

 

What I did read was that Ebron went on record saying that Stafford was a general who lead on the field, but did not throw him the ball and Detroit refused to use him as a red zone target.

 

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/platform/amp/2019/2/5/18212005/eric-ebron-begged-detroit-lions-more-red-zone-targets

 

Edited February 15, 2019 by WideNine

[BillsSB2020]

1 minute ago, WideNine said:

 

Dunno about the Ebron reference.

 

I don't think I ever caught Ebron saying that about Stafford, but will revise opinion if you have a quote.

 

What I did read was that Ebron went on record saying was that Stafford was a general who lead on the field, but did not throw him the ball and Detroit refused to use him as a red zone target.

Thinking of Ebron, I kind of wish they would have targeted him last offseason instead of paying Corey Coleman/KB/Kerley etc. Nobody bats 1000 and maybe Ebron wanted to play in Indy. Kind of wish the Beane man had targeted Ebron because we'd have one less need. Hindsight is 20/20 and sky's the limit for 2019.