formerlyofCtown Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Oh it isn't completion percentage and nothing else. Personally I think in this era you need to be a 60% passer to have sustainable success. The closest anyone can give to a successful modern era QB who is below that is Cam Newton and he is 59.7%. Good news is I think he will get there. Cam also had a great running game backing him up. Also on the RedZone you really need that short game. Mt point from the beginning was if he could do that most games he would win because unless you are playing fantasy football the only stat that matters is W or L and the way to get their is with TDs and FGs while not letting your opponent get them. But it is likely easier to do if your QBs game is well rounded. Edited February 11, 2019 by formerlyofCtown
oldmanfan Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 Let's say he throws on average 20-30 times a game. The difference between a completion percentage of 52% and 60% is between 2-3 passes. So if one or two receivers catch a ball instead of dropping it, or if one or two tackles make a block that allows Allen to make a throw and complete it vs. throw it away to avoid a sack, there you have it. I agree he has things to improve. Touch on short throws, reading defenses, taking the short throw. All these come with experience. People need to quit assuming the kid is a finished product. It gets ridiculous. And people need to quit equating accuracy with completion percentage, because it's comparing apples and oranges. 1 2
GunnerBill Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 59 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: Let's say he throws on average 20-30 times a game. The difference between a completion percentage of 52% and 60% is between 2-3 passes. So if one or two receivers catch a ball instead of dropping it, or if one or two tackles make a block that allows Allen to make a throw and complete it vs. throw it away to avoid a sack, there you have it. I agree he has things to improve. Touch on short throws, reading defenses, taking the short throw. All these come with experience. People need to quit assuming the kid is a finished product. It gets ridiculous. And people need to quit equating accuracy with completion percentage, because it's comparing apples and oranges. On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things. As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question.
oldmanfan Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things. As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question. I agree with everything you've stated except your first sentence. People on this board have repeatedly used his completion percentage to say he's inaccurate, despite repeated attempts to explain why they are not the same.
Mikey152 Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 15 hours ago, Shaw66 said: I'd guess that if you talk to the best football minds in the country, the Belichicks and Reeds and others, they'll tell you completion percentage is more important. I don't know that, but watching and listening to the coaches talking, I think winning depends on consistent offense.. I think they'd tell you that if the QB keeps getting completions, they'll get the TD anyway. Maybe not a TD pass, maybe a two-yard run. In other words, over the long run, the incompletion you throw trying for the 40-yard TD pass hurts more than the benefit of the occasional 40-yard TD you get. Except when the game is on the line, when it's fourth and 17 and you're on your last possession, except when the game is on the line in those situations, the coach wants the higher probability throw. Reed is probably not a great name to throw out there, considering he ditched Alex Smith for a far more unproven (and aggressive) Patrick Mahomes...
John from Riverside Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things. As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question. To me Josh Allen has a lot of similarities to Mitch T. And Mitch T. looked much better in his second year when they actually gave him guys to throw to......I hope we follow suit.
Shaw66 Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Reed is probably not a great name to throw out there, considering he ditched Alex Smith for a far more unproven (and aggressive) Patrick Mahomes... I think you're wrong. Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this season. Smith was better than that only once in his career. By going with Mahomes, Reed got the same or better completion percentage than he had with Smith, plus he got the rest that Mahomes brought to the table. And that's what I'm saying about Allen. Get him to throw all the short stuff the team wants him to throw, and you can have high completion percentage, the same or better scrambling than Mahomes offers PLUS great downfield throwing. 1
Mikey152 Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I think you're wrong. Mahomes completed 66% of his passes this season. Smith was better than that only once in his career. By going with Mahomes, Reed got the same or better completion percentage than he had with Smith, plus he got the rest that Mahomes brought to the table. And that's what I'm saying about Allen. Get him to throw all the short stuff the team wants him to throw, and you can have high completion percentage, the same or better scrambling than Mahomes offers PLUS great downfield throwing. 2x...both seasons under Reed. In 2017, Smith had an air yards per attempt of 7.6, and in 2018 Mahomes was at 9.2. It also clear based on their arm/skill set that the chiefs were looking to get more aggressive. Completion % went down (though not a ton because Mahomes is clearly a better QB) and touchdowns doubled. FWIW, Smith lost his job in SF for pretty much the same exact reason. For ***** and giggles...JA was at 10.9 Edited February 11, 2019 by Mikey152
GunnerBill Posted February 11, 2019 Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, John from Riverside said: To me Josh Allen has a lot of similarities to Mitch T. And Mitch T. looked much better in his second year when they actually gave him guys to throw to......I hope we follow suit. I don't see the likeness to be honest but yes he did and hopefully the Bills do something similar and that helps Josh take a step too.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 11, 2019 Author Posted February 11, 2019 15 hours ago, Warcodered said: I think using his running ability as a check down will shrink if things progress well in the next few years. A lot of the running check downs comes to a combination of being less comfortable in his short game and not having enough trust in his recievers which will hopefully improve as he works with them more and gets better ones. And also WRs not necessarily being open or immediate pressure he avoids via his athleticism. I think Allen as our leading rusher is a terrible thing. But Allen gaining 500 yards plus or minus on the ground with his legs on passing plays that break down is just fine. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Author Posted February 12, 2019 16 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I think that is not a sustainable model for being a successful NFL QB long term. People can go back and forth on his accuracy... but if he is going to make it his completion percentage (not the same thing) has to improve. It does. But not as dramatically necessarily as many would think.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Author Posted February 12, 2019 11 hours ago, GunnerBill said: On equating completion percentage with accuracy I don't think anyone is. People are saying his completion percentage has to improve to be a sustainably successful NFL QB. I believe that to be true. Improved accuracy will help him in that regard but so will receivers making more catches and the line allowing fewer free rushers. It isn't one thing it is a combination of multiple things. As for the assumption he is the finished product...... I don't think he is but I equally don't think people should just assume he improves either. Some Quarterbacks improve, others are the guy they were in college, most get to a certain point then flatline. Where that point is for Josh is to be determined. I expect to see improvement in 2019, how much and whether that improvement continues into 2020 is the question. Well... On 2/8/2019 at 6:37 AM, C.Biscuit97 said: Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute. that said, Wentz has never been under 60%. Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. This guy definitely is... On 2/8/2019 at 11:07 AM, LSHMEAB said: Until Josh Allen's completion percentage is reflective of his superior accuracy. I appreciate your posts and your generally optimistic nature, but at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff. and this guy probably is.
GunnerBill Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Well... This guy definitely is... and this guy probably is. Not in those posts you quote they aren't.
John from Riverside Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 9 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Not in those posts you quote they aren't. Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will
transplantbillsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Author Posted February 12, 2019 47 minutes ago, John from Riverside said: Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will Yeah he absolutely will. 173 yards passing, 53 yards rushing and less than 2 TDs per game out of the QB position simply doesn't cut it long term. But those numbers appear to be a symptom of the bigger problems we had on offense in 2018, not Allen himself.
Foxx Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, John from Riverside said: Im probably the biggest Josh Allen fan here And I still say we need Josh to take another leap in production this next year.......Im pretty confident that he will i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does?
John from Riverside Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Foxx said: i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does? OK.....maybe I am NOT the biggest fan. 1
WideNine Posted February 12, 2019 Posted February 12, 2019 3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: Yeah he absolutely will. 173 yards passing, 53 yards rushing and less than 2 TDs per game out of the QB position simply doesn't cut it long term. But those numbers appear to be a symptom of the bigger problems we had on offense in 2018, not Allen himself. I'll take 53 yards rushing each game from my QB, as long as my running backs are kicking in another 100.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Author Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Foxx said: i dunno. do you have a Fathead of him plastered to your ceiling like the OP does? Speaking of which, how's that Fathead you have of me above your bed holding up? Let me know if you need a new picture... I know how much you so miss me when we're apart
transplantbillsfan Posted February 13, 2019 Author Posted February 13, 2019 3 hours ago, WideNine said: I'll take 53 yards rushing each game from my QB, as long as my running backs are kicking in another 100. Yes, but 173 yards passing per game just won't do.
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