Florida Bills Fanatic Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 It would be interesting to see the data at different yardage intervals. It seems that being behind the sticks as much as Allen was, would require him to make longer throws more often. Longer throws with a bad o line equals a lower completion percentage. Rosen probably has the same issue. When you look at Trubisky, Mariota, Prescott and some others, Allen does not look all that different. Yet, you don't hear the sports media harping on their accuracy the way they do Allen. As some of you already observed, some NFL caliber linemen and receivers can make a big difference. For those of you who haven't had to endure the likes of Todd Collins, Trent Edwards, JP, and Johnson; Allen is a breath of fresh air.
Captain Murica Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 3 hours ago, wakingfane said: Ouch! That five minute gag reel was painful! LOL But seriously, just looking at those 35 throws my gut feeling is about half of those misses are 100% on the receiver. The other half do have at least a small percentage up to 50/50 QB error in the mix, because of less than excellent ball placement. So at worst, gut feeling is those misses are 25% on Allen. I agree they were all catchable. I do think he makes average receivers look worse... Most throws in the NFL involve at least a little bit of receiver adjustment to the ball while it is in the air. Josh throws the ball so hard that an average receiver doesn't have time to take more than one step to adjust their route. Zay Jones has quicker feet and pretty good instincts, which helps him a bit. They need to continue to add receivers with uncanny instincts and twitchy/smooth quickness and good hands with just enough size to not be Isaiah McKenzie. That's pretty much a description of Antonio Brown, so I'm hoping all the issues in Pittsburgh are traced back to Big Ben, not AB and his character doesn't keep him out of Buffalo... Just did the quick math on that. If the WRs caught 50% of those 35 drops. He'd be at 58% completion rate for the year. If they caught 75% of those 35 drops, he'd be at 61%. Which isn't a stretch by any measure with a solid WR/TE core. Plus, it'd be nice if they had more throws into the flat for him. Those numbers are a huge jump and more respectable which would have made him second out of the rookies. We need to grab some guys with hands in this off-season via the draft and FA. 2
DJB Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 Awesome work! This thread deserves to be pinned ! 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 1) that was a lot of work so I salute you 2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl. When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault? I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history. At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else? 3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs. The 60% was higher than their career average. 4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit. He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season. Did he suddenly get better? Or does Luck throw a more catchable football? This is a thing posters overlook. As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball. This league is about touch. What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes. Allen hasn’t shown that. allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old. He isn’t that accurate. Accept it. He needs to improve. Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs. But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. 2 1 1
skibum Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 Lies > Damned Lies > Statistics - Mark Twain 1
oldmanfan Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: 1) that was a lot of work so I salute you 2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl. When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault? I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history. At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else? 3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs. The 60% was higher than their career average. 4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit. He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season. Did he suddenly get better? Or does Luck throw a more catchable football? This is a thing posters overlook. As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball. This league is about touch. What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes. Allen hasn’t shown that. allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old. He isn’t that accurate. Accept it. He needs to improve. Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs. But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. I don't know, when do you finally realize completion percentage is not the same as accuracy? 7 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, oldmanfan said: I don't know, when do you finally realize completion percentage is not the same as accuracy? You’re reaching. 1
oldmanfan Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, C.Biscuit97 said: You’re reaching. No I'm not. I have explained this concept more times than I can count. And the OP does a good job of explaining it as well, accounting for things like throw aways, etc. You have no concept what the term accuracy means. And saying I'm reaching proves it. I agree Allen has to improve. But drop the banal accuracy stuff based solely on completion percentage. 1
wakingfane Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 38 minutes ago, Captain Murica said: Just did the quick math on that. If the WRs caught 50% of those 35 drops. He'd be at 58% completion rate for the year. If they caught 75% of those 35 drops, he'd be at 61%. Which isn't a stretch by any measure with a solid WR/TE core. Plus, it'd be nice if they had more throws into the flat for him. Those numbers are a huge jump and more respectable which would have made him second out of the rookies. We need to grab some guys with hands in this off-season via the draft and FA. Wow, that's stunning. I'm surprised that the results of 35 throws would tilt the statistics that much. Of course every receiving corps has drops but I agree that catching the majority of those particular 35 throws is not too much to ask.
wakingfane Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 39 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: 1) that was a lot of work so I salute you 2) 49% in junior college, 56% in college, and 52% in the nfl. When does the lack of accuracy ever become Allen’s fault? I’m sorry but the guy is a top 10 pick and the highest drafted qb in Bills history. At some point, can we stop blaming everyone else? 3) Barkley and Anderson, dime a dozen Street FAs, came off the street and both completed 60% of their passes with the same terrible wrs. The 60% was higher than their career average. 4) Eric Ebron was considered a bust in Detroit. He gets with Luck and has a pro bowl season. Did he suddenly get better? Or does Luck throw a more catchable football? This is a thing posters overlook. As a receiver, you don’t always watch to catch a 95 mile per hour fastball. This league is about touch. What separates qbs like Mahomes and Allen, both who have rocket arms, is Mahomes has great touch on his passes. Allen hasn’t shown that. allen is very exciting but the excuse making is getting old. He isn’t that accurate. Accept it. He needs to improve. Hopefully the regime that traded for Benjamin and Matthews and drafted Zay over JuJu And Kupp (plus the 2 undersized guys that weren’t good this year) will suddenly figure out how to evaluate wrs. But no matter how many excuses you make, 52% is terrible. I think there's a difference between excuse making and seeing a healthy combination of potential and progress. The potential is obvious but we also saw progress. Especially with touch and recognition 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: No I'm not. I have explained this concept more times than I can count. And the OP does a good job of explaining it as well, accounting for things like throw aways, etc. You have no concept what the term accuracy means. And saying I'm reaching proves it. I agree Allen has to improve. But drop the banal accuracy stuff based solely on completion percentage. Love how you didn’t dispute one of my points. Why are Anderson and Barkley, after like a week with the team, more “accurate” than Allen? Or that having a rocket doesn’t mean you throw a catchable football? if Allen was on any other team, we would laugh at him and wonder why a team took such an “inaccurate “ qb that high. He seems like a hard worker and is very exciting. But despite all the excuses, he is going to need to be a more accurate passer next year.
tbarg12 Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, wakingfane said: I think there's a difference between excuse making and seeing a healthy combination of potential and progress. The potential is obvious but we also saw progress. Especially with touch and recognition I can definitely agree with that, I think towards the end of the season he placed a little more touch on certain throws. Definitely not perfect, but progress was made from his early starts in the season.
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, wakingfane said: I think there's a difference between excuse making and seeing a healthy combination of potential and progress. The potential is obvious but we also saw progress. Especially with touch and recognition Well, he certainly was drafted because of his potential. All the skills are there. But I think some of you need to watch some of the touch passes these last 4 qbs make. It’s a different level than Allen currently has. 1
Swill Merchant Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 This was a pleasant surprise. I assumed accuracy was going to be lazily equated with completion percentage. Thanks to OP for putting in the time and making a nice contribution to the board. 1 1
wakingfane Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 (edited) 20 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Well, he certainly was drafted because of his potential. All the skills are there. But I think some of you need to watch some of the touch passes these last 4 qbs make. It’s a different level than Allen currently has. Agreed. I just see a natural physical awareness, intuition, and intelligence on field that I believe will lead to continued growth in that area and others. And I agree with the OP that accuracy technically is not the issue. It's precision and touch, which are easier to fix and/or work with. This is not an EJ Manuel / JP Losman level project. Edited January 15, 2019 by wakingfane
TheElectricCompany Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 (edited) Statistics don't apply to Josh. They haven't for years, why start now? Edited January 15, 2019 by TheElectricCompany
wakingfane Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 (edited) 6 minutes ago, TheElectricCompany said: We already know where this is heading. Josh Allen & statistics do not matter. They haven't mattered for years. I expect to see a six point jump in completion percentage next year.. related to improvement mostly in areas other than "accuracy"... Edited January 15, 2019 by wakingfane
The_Dude Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 The OPs point isn’t necessary. We dont need to do these. This is the kinda crap you write to try and convince yourself that your awful QB, EJ Manuel, really isn’t that bad. I dont need these stats. I don’t need next gen stats. “Stats are for losers.” I saw Allen. He passed the eye test with flying colors. No need for paralysis by analysis with him. He’s got it. And I don’t need stats to tell me that. 3 1
oldmanfan Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 30 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Love how you didn’t dispute one of my points. Why are Anderson and Barkley, after like a week with the team, more “accurate” than Allen? Or that having a rocket doesn’t mean you throw a catchable football? if Allen was on any other team, we would laugh at him and wonder why a team took such an “inaccurate “ qb that high. He seems like a hard worker and is very exciting. But despite all the excuses, he is going to need to be a more accurate passer next year. Why did the two other guys have higher percentages, and one for just one game? Because they are veterans and see the field better and get the ball to guys quicker when they're more open, is the likely explanation. Which has nothing to do with accuracy. Nothing. At all. And I did say that Allen certainly needs to improve. Touch is one of those things he can improve upon. You are the typical guy out there that slavishly latches onto one stat with no comprehension of the variables that can affect such a statistic. You also are the typical one who does not understand the difference between being accurate and precise. When people complain about someone not being accurate, what they are really complaining about is that someone is lacking being precise together with being accurate. I have gone over this several times on the board, but folks like you don't want to become educated on it because it would interfere with your predetermined conclusion. 1
eball Posted January 15, 2019 Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, The_Dude said: I saw Allen. He passed the eye test with flying colors. No need for paralysis by analysis with him. He’s got it. And I don’t need stats to tell me that. I think there's room for both. I am with you 100% on the "eye test" part of things. Leadership, talent, moxie -- he's got it all. I also think stats have their place. The one thing I haven't seen a lot of people talk about is the fact Allen started this process behind the 8-ball. He was not groomed at an early age to be a QB, and we've seen how poorly he was coached at Wyoming. From what I can tell the kid has literally only had about a season and a half's worth of coaches working specifically on his mechanics and the art of playing QB. And look how far he has come! The sky is the limit for this kid, and I think we're all going to be pretty pleased with what the future holds. 1
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