LSHMEAB Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said: How many times does it have to be stated and proved that completion percentage does not equal accuracy? Until Josh Allen's completion percentage is reflective of his superior accuracy. 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: Low completion percentage is a problem. But it doesn't equal accuracy. He needs to improve on reading the field and taking more easy throws on early downs. That will increase his completion percentage and efficiency whether he ever becomes more accurate or not. I appreciate your posts and your generally optimistic nature, but at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said: Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple. I don't care if it'll always be questioned. Climate change is still being questioned. Evolution is still being questioned. It's almost impossible to convince EVERYONE of just about anything, even if there's overwhelming evidence one way or another. There are people with low completion %s because they're inaccurate and there are people with low completion %s due in larger part to other factors. I care if he's accurate or not. If his low completion % is due in large part to other factors rather than accuracy, his completion % will increase significantly once those other factors are resolved. Edited February 8, 2019 by transplantbillsfan 1
LSHMEAB Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: I don't care if it'll always be questioned. Climate change is still being questioned. Evolution is still being questioned. It's almost impossible to convince EVERYONE of just about anything, even if there's overwhelming evidence one way or another. There are people with low completion %s because they're inaccurate and there are people with low completion %s due in larger part to other factors. I care if he's accurate or not. If his low completion % is due in large part to other factors rather than accuracy, his completion % will increase significantly once those other factors are resolved. It doesn't matter that's it's questioned, but unless he gets it done, it WILL be. Do you believe it's possible to have a 10 plus year NFL career and never have the proper variables to sustain a quality completion percentage? At some point, it would be on Josh and not everyone around him. We're nowhere near that point. He was a rookie with a poor supporting cast. But it will continue to be an issue until the proper results are obtained.
oldmanfan Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 31 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: Until Josh Allen's completion percentage is reflective of his superior accuracy. I appreciate your posts and your generally optimistic nature, but at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff. Because people choose to be ignorant, I guess
BringBackFlutie Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 (edited) 11 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: It doesn't matter that's it's questioned, but unless he gets it done, it WILL be. Do you believe it's possible to have a 10 plus year NFL career and never have the proper variables to sustain a quality completion percentage? At some point, it would be on Josh and not everyone around him. We're nowhere near that point. He was a rookie with a poor supporting cast. But it will continue to be an issue until the proper results are obtained. You're absolutely right. If his completion percentage doesn't improve over time, the common factor of Josh Allen's general playing style will eventually be more positively correlated to a low completion percentage than other factors relating to his job. If he weren't to ever change over that time, the one thing that, statistically, could never be correlated with such, is his level of accuracy. Edited February 8, 2019 by BringBackFlutie 1
LSHMEAB Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, BringBackFlutie said: You're absolutely right. If his completion percentage doesn't improve over time, the common factor of Josh Allen's general playing style will eventually be more positively correlated to a low completion percentage than other factors relating to his job. If he weren't to ever change over that time, the one thing that, statistically, could never be correlated with such, is his level of accuracy. And that is really my only point. There's a whole lot of work being done to justify his low completion percentage at JUCO, Wyoming, and with the Bills. At some point, it needs to be reflected by actual results. I know one thing; he'll work his a** off from now until the start of the 2019 season to improve. There is no questing his work ethic. All we can do as Bills fans is hope for the best.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 41 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: And that is really my only point. There's a whole lot of work being done to justify his low completion percentage at JUCO, Wyoming, and with the Bills. At some point, it needs to be reflected by actual results. I know one thing; he'll work his a** off from now until the start of the 2019 season to improve. There is no questing his work ethic. All we can do as Bills fans is hope for the best. I wasn't doing the work to justify his low completion percentage. I did the work to see how truly "inaccurate" Allen is in comparison with other rookies. Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold have completion %s this year in the mid 50s, but there's not this widespread "he's inaccurate!!!" narrative with them.
Shaw66 Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold have completion %s this year in the mid 50s, but there's not this widespread "he's inaccurate!!!" narrative with them. I undersaid and what you're doing and I applaud it. And although you and others are correct that accuracy and completion percentage are different things, I'm almost not interested in knowing about his accuracy. If his completion perception doesn't go up, he doesn't have a future. 1
John from Riverside Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I undersaid and what you're doing and I applaud it. And although you and others are correct that accuracy and completion percentage are different things, I'm almost not interested in knowing about his accuracy. If his completion perception doesn't go up, he doesn't have a future. Which is why he needs better targets KB almost single handily destroyed this stat for Josh Allen
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said: I undersaid and what you're doing and I applaud it. And although you and others are correct that accuracy and completion percentage are different things, I'm almost not interested in knowing about his accuracy. If his completion perception doesn't go up, he doesn't have a future. You're right--though I think another argument to be made is that Allen doesn't have to be a 60+% passer simply because of what he does with his legs. But that's the other part of the point here. Does the evidence suggest Allen's completion % is a reflection of his accuracy or does it suggest it's a reflection of his supporting cast, among other things? If I were finding right now Allen's low completion % were a reflection of his accuracy, I think we'd all have a lot to worry about because I really don't think accuracy can be fixed to the point where you can turn a really inaccurate passer into a really accurate passer. But that's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a QB who's throwing the ball where he wants it to go and a lot of WRs/TEs/RBs who aren't coming up with the football. And so I expect Allen's completion % to go up into the low 60s in the next year or 2 if Beane honestly goes about these next 2 offseasons as he claimed he would in surrounding Allen with talent. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 10 games now into Wentz's rookie season: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.3% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2% Interceptable Pass %: 6.3% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 83.6%
transplantbillsfan Posted February 9, 2019 Author Posted February 9, 2019 At least PFF acknowledges the serious issue with the dropsies our WRs had https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/08/buffalo-bills-top-10-drops-dropped-passes-josh-allen-kelvin-benjamin-zay-jones/ 9th highest drop % in the league, according to them.
HappyDays Posted February 9, 2019 Posted February 9, 2019 3 hours ago, LSHMEAB said: at some point, the completion percentage will need to rise to justify all the catchable/precision vs accuracy stuff. No it won't. You can be the most accurate QB in the world, if you aren't reading the field your completion percentage will be low. The whole point of this thread is that his accuracy isn't as big a deal as it's made out to be. Obviously he has other issues that are pretty common for rookies. If he develops in other areas without ever improving his accuracy he will have a high completion percentage regardless. Mahomes is not a precise passer but he completes a ton of passes because he knows when to take the easy throw. 1
LSHMEAB Posted February 9, 2019 Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: No it won't. You can be the most accurate QB in the world, if you aren't reading the field your completion percentage will be low. The whole point of this thread is that his accuracy isn't as big a deal as it's made out to be. Obviously he has other issues that are pretty common for rookies. If he develops in other areas without ever improving his accuracy he will have a high completion percentage regardless. Mahomes is not a precise passer but he completes a ton of passes because he knows when to take the easy throw. I've often said his recognition/ timing is more of an issue than pure accuracy. That can improve with time and that is the hope. Bottom line is that he's going to have to throw more passes that are caught by the intended target in order to take that next step.
GunnerBill Posted February 9, 2019 Posted February 9, 2019 9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: At least PFF acknowledges the serious issue with the dropsies our WRs had https://billswire.usatoday.com/2019/02/08/buffalo-bills-top-10-drops-dropped-passes-josh-allen-kelvin-benjamin-zay-jones/ 9th highest drop % in the league, according to them. Just worth pointing out to all those who have written off Rosen and said he had a much better supporting cast... they are about the Bills in drops and have a similarly pathetic separation average for receivers. Arizona's passing weapons really were the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald's career and nothing else.
Dr. Who Posted February 9, 2019 Posted February 9, 2019 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Just worth pointing out to all those who have written off Rosen and said he had a much better supporting cast... they are about the Bills in drops and have a similarly pathetic separation average for receivers. Arizona's passing weapons really were the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald's career and nothing else. I don't think there is any question Rosen's supporting cast was dreadful. He may turn out to be a good qb. Under similar circumstances, Allen's far greater athleticism allowed him to occasionally raise the level of play of those around him. His leadership even as a rookie was impressive. If you had a redraft today, how many teams would choose Rosen over Allen?
row_33 Posted February 9, 2019 Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: I don't think there is any question Rosen's supporting cast was dreadful. He may turn out to be a good qb. Under similar circumstances, Allen's far greater athleticism allowed him to occasionally raise the level of play of those around him. His leadership even as a rookie was impressive. If you had a redraft today, how many teams would choose Rosen over Allen? Sometimes you don’t get that dream lineup that many on here feel a QB is entitled to. lots of careers and the most holy and precious stats were hampered by this routine situation.
Dr. Who Posted February 9, 2019 Posted February 9, 2019 37 minutes ago, row_33 said: Sometimes you don’t get that dream lineup that many on here feel a QB is entitled to. lots of careers and the most holy and precious stats were hampered by this routine situation. The role of fortune in human destiny used to be part of common human wisdom.
GunnerBill Posted February 9, 2019 Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Dr. Who said: I don't think there is any question Rosen's supporting cast was dreadful. He may turn out to be a good qb. Under similar circumstances, Allen's far greater athleticism allowed him to occasionally raise the level of play of those around him. His leadership even as a rookie was impressive. If you had a redraft today, how many teams would choose Rosen over Allen? It wasn't a point comparing the two. It was purely to point out to the folks who have argued that Rosen did less with more. He did less. But with an equally dreadful supporting cast. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 9, 2019 Author Posted February 9, 2019 7 hours ago, GunnerBill said: Just worth pointing out to all those who have written off Rosen and said he had a much better supporting cast... they are about the Bills in drops and have a similarly pathetic separation average for receivers. Arizona's passing weapons really were the corpse of Larry Fitzgerald's career and nothing else. In watching Rosen I never thought he didn't belong. Again part of the findings for me in this exercise is that all the rookies look promising, except Jackson who's too much of a gimmick with an awkward delivery. But all of them have accuracy problems if Allen does. And I still think Fitz has gas in his tank. Not dead yet.
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