transplantbillsfan Posted February 2, 2019 Author Posted February 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, racketmaster said: I added weeks 16 and 17 in and that brought Allen's on target rate down a bit to 73.7%. Outside of the clear throwaways, hail mary plays and obvious drops, I pretty much consider the incompletions to be misses even though some of those are obvious miscommunication plays between the wr and qb. I put it on Allen as a miss because he is the one targeting the wr and needs to make sure they are on the same page. In week 16 I had Allen going 26 of 39 for 66% (I have the full breakdown like the others but most are probably not interested in it). In reality Allen's stats were not good 20 of 41 for 217yds 1td and 2int. However, the yardage and touchdowns could have been much different as I saw 3 touchdown opportunities slipped through the Bills wrs hands. (1) Foster in sun was there and should have been a long td, (2) Foster at goaline miss timed his jump and let an opportunity slip away, (3) Logan Thomas let a big time throw slip threw his hands in the end zone. Catch 2 of 3 and the stats look very different as does the game. In week 17 I had Allen being on target 17 of 24 passes at 70.8%. He had 7 misses in this game including the pick 6 which was a nice read by the defender. Still he accounted for 5tds and was pretty dynamic on the ground again. See in week 16 I saw 9 Incompletions that I thought were catchable. I actually made a note saying "maybe 8." On one of those passes a WR slipped. I saw 9 uncatchable in that game, but one of those appears to be a back shoulder throw that Zay doesn't turn around for. I saw 3 Throwaways, but one of those people might gripe with because it was the one with Allen escaping an inevitable safety in the EZ and flipping it to the sidelines. There was an RB (?) In the area but it looked to me like he was getting rid of the ball. My week 17 numbers look similar to yours--I see you also account for 2 Throwaways--but I thought one of his Incompletions was catchable.
racketmaster Posted February 2, 2019 Posted February 2, 2019 16 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: See in week 16 I saw 9 Incompletions that I thought were catchable. I actually made a note saying "maybe 8." On one of those passes a WR slipped. I saw 9 uncatchable in that game, but one of those appears to be a back shoulder throw that Zay doesn't turn around for. I saw 3 Throwaways, but one of those people might gripe with because it was the one with Allen escaping an inevitable safety in the EZ and flipping it to the sidelines. There was an RB (?) In the area but it looked to me like he was getting rid of the ball. My week 17 numbers look similar to yours--I see you also account for 2 Throwaways--but I thought one of his Incompletions was catchable. Yeah, I think its pretty close. I had 11 misses in week 16 and 7 misses in week 17. I will probably take a look at some other quarterbacks using the same criteria so I can see how Allen measures up. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 4, 2019 Author Posted February 4, 2019 Doing Carson Wentz right now. Looking pretty good just a couple games in. He was really given the reins of the offense, that's for sure. Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 79.4% Throwaway/Spike %: 4.2% Interceptable Pass %: 7.4% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.5% Wentz is getting a lot of balls batted and tipped; both at the line and en route to the WR.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 6, 2019 Author Posted February 6, 2019 5 games through Wentz's rookie season: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 83.6% Throwaway/Spike %: 3.2% Interceptable Pass %: 5.3% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 88.2% 1st 5 games resemble the strong start I remembered for Wentz in his rookie year. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 7, 2019 Author Posted February 7, 2019 I'm halfway through Wentz's rookie season. He played all 16 games, so I'm through 8 games and 275 pass attempts... which is just 45 less than Allen attempted this year: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 80.7% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2% Interceptable Pass %: 5.9% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 84.4% And yes, his numbers are dropping off for good reason... he got significantly less accurate after his strong start. His week 9 game vs the Giants is one of the worst I saw from any of the rookies. He had 13 uncatchable passes. That's the highest number I charted in any of the games. Granted, he threw 47 passes, but those passes were the types of head-scratchers I'm sure the national media points to when they think of Allen. Let's see what Wentz's 2nd half of the season brings... 1
GunnerBill Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said: I'm halfway through Wentz's rookie season. He played all 16 games, so I'm through 8 games and 275 pass attempts... which is just 45 less than Allen attempted this year: Catchable pass % excluding Throwaways and Spikes: 80.7% Throwaway/Spike %: 2.2% Interceptable Pass %: 5.9% Catchable pass % excluding BOTH throwaways AND tipped/batted balls: 84.4% And yes, his numbers are dropping off for good reason... he got significantly less accurate after his strong start. His week 9 game vs the Giants is one of the worst I saw from any of the rookies. He had 13 uncatchable passes. That's the highest number I charted in any of the games. Granted, he threw 47 passes, but those passes were the types of head-scratchers I'm sure the national media points to when they think of Allen. Let's see what Wentz's 2nd half of the season brings... I can save you the work. I reviewed every throw of Wentz and Goff after their rookie year. From week 10 on Wentz was less accurate than Goff. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I can save you the work. I reviewed every throw of Wentz and Goff after their rookie year. From week 10 on Wentz was less accurate than Goff. Well, doesn't really save me the work because I'm trying to place these guys on a scale in context of each other. As of right now Wentz is ranked #1. If what you say is true I wonder how much his numbers fall. After him I think I'm gonna do the Golden Boy: Andrew Luck. 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute. that said, Wentz has never been under 60%. Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach.
GoBills808 Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 48 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute. that said, Wentz has never been under 60%. Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. You need to find a flaw in the methodology to say the study is biased. 1
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Even though I think your study is biased because Of the conclusion you want, I definitely respect all the work you are doing. So salute. that said, Wentz has never been under 60%. Even though he wasn’t playing with NFL talent ain college, with the coach who was Allen’s college coach. The last game I watched of Wentz was maybe the worst game I saw from any of the rookies I saw accuracy-wise. He was for sure in what I charted as that game he had the biggest number of uncatchable passes and the highest percentage of uncatchable passes over the other rookies, but I'm talking anecdotally. I'm talking about just how wildly off-target he was in that game. He looked worse in that game than Allen looked in any game he played. Whatever conclusions you may think I want, I chose to do this very simple uncatchable vs. catchable (ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable) because It severely diminishes any subjectivity in the matter.
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: The last game I watched of Wentz was maybe the worst game I saw from any of the rookies I saw accuracy-wise. He was for sure in what I charted as that game he had the biggest number of uncatchable passes and the highest percentage of uncatchable passes over the other rookies, but I'm talking anecdotally. I'm talking about just how wildly off-target he was in that game. He looked worse in that game than Allen looked in any game he played. Whatever conclusions you may think I want, I chose to do this very simple uncatchable vs. catchable (ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable) because It severely diminishes any subjectivity in the matter. 1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right? How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that? 2). For as bad as we say Allen’s weapons were, Wentz top receiver his rookie year was Jordan Trash Matthews.
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 27 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: 1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right? How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that? And in that game he threw 11 catchable passes, 5 uncatchable passes, 2 throwaways and had 1 pass batted/tipped. That Interception was the 1 incompletion that should have been a catch. It was to Andre Holmes and pretty much hit him right between the hands and bounced high into the air. And if it didn't hit him in the hands, it pretty much would have embedded itself into his helmet. That's how on-target that pass that counted not just as an incompletion but also as an interception was, and it's actually the perfect example of why maybe you should try this exercise rather than just pointing out stats, so thank you. 2 1 1
C.Biscuit97 Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 22 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: And in that game he threw 11 catchable passes, 5 uncatchable passes, 2 throwaways and had 1 pass batted/tipped. That Interception was the 1 incompletion that should have been a catch. It was to Andre Holmes and pretty much hit him right between the hands and bounced high into the air. And if it didn't hit him in the hands, it pretty much would have embedded itself into his helmet. That's how on-target that pass that counted not just as an incompletion but also as an interception was, and it's actually the perfect example of why maybe you should try this exercise rather than just pointing out stats, so thank you. Yeah. I won’t defend a nfl qb after 82 yards. That’s depressing. But it when I get caught cheating on my girlfriend, I wil bring you in to defend me.
John from Riverside Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: 1) you do realize Allen had a game this year where he completed 52% of his passes for 82 yards and 1 int in a win, right? How in the world could Wentz have a worse game than that? 2). For as bad as we say Allen’s weapons were, Wentz top receiver his rookie year was Jordan Trash Matthews. Who at one point was the best WR we had on this team Look I want to be careful with all the fact finding on Josh Allen this past year trying to prove him some sort of accurate QB - I think his accuracy issues were way overblown....having said that especially in the first half of the season you could really tell he needed work. - He was always a guy that was not supposed to be a stir and ready NFL QB.....so he overcome low expectations magnificently - It gives me a lot of hope for the future.....because I expect him to make big jumps in performance year to year and he has a extremely high ceiling. 3
transplantbillsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Author Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said: Yeah. I won’t defend a nfl qb after 82 yards. That’s depressing. But it when I get caught cheating on my girlfriend, I wil bring you in to defend me. It's too bad you're so ridiculously biased you can't even have a reasonable conversation about accuracy. Come back when you can do that.... and you should probably stop cheating on your girlfriend. That's vile and disgusting. Just break up with her.
LSHMEAB Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, transplantbillsfan said: It's too bad you're so ridiculously biased you can't even have a reasonable conversation about accuracy. Come back when you can do that.... and you should probably stop cheating on your girlfriend. That's vile and disgusting. Just break up with her. Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple.
Foxx Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple. but, but......... "ball hits--or can hit--palm of hand = Catchable vs ball doesn't hit--or can't hit--palm of hand = Uncatchable" ? 1
oldmanfan Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 52 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple. How many times does it have to be stated and proved that completion percentage does not equal accuracy? 1
HappyDays Posted February 8, 2019 Posted February 8, 2019 58 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said: Ok. I gotta jump in here. Everyone has stated their admiration for the work you're putting in. But Josh Allen had a low completion percentage at JUCO. A low completion percentage at Wyoming. And a low completion percentage with the Bills. His accuracy will be questioned as long as his completion percentage remains low. It's really that simple. Low completion percentage is a problem. But it doesn't equal accuracy. He needs to improve on reading the field and taking more easy throws on early downs. That will increase his completion percentage and efficiency whether he ever becomes more accurate or not.
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