Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[Luka]

75% of those drop balls are caught, we're talking about Allen having 61% completion percentage and missing the playoffs by a game. Don't think Beane doesn't know this.

[Foxx]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's weird.

 

Why are you bringing up Taylor?

 

What does he have to do with this?

 

 

That's nice.  You can trust them if you want.

 

I got no problem with that.

 

But you're trusting them blindly.

 

 

Well, we can disagree.  And we do.  I think these "experts" and pundits are often victims of their own analysis, and what did the analysis about Allen coming out of college overwhelmingly state?

 

"Josh Allen has an area code accuracy problem and should sit on the bench for a year or two to learn the game."

 

Now that Allen's rookie year is over and it was for a team like the Bills that just doesn't get a lot of national attention who finished with a worse record than last year and Allen's numbers in the passing game look mediocre to poor, it's pretty easy to gloss over that with an "I was right" and move onto the next guy.

 

You can trust their system, but their system involves nine different categories.  If you trust that someone from PFF has accurately divided up Allen's 320 throws into those 9 categories--and it's actually probably significantly less than the 320 total throws because I would assume they would discard throwaways or batted/tipped passes, but since there's nothing to explain that part, who knows?--and is left with an average of less than 40 throws for each category, which means that a single ill-defined pass moves the needle more than a couple percentage points one way or the other....

 

then...

 

well...

 

you go ahead and do it.

 

I'm not even saying my numbers should be 100% trusted.  I did the exercise, was aware of potential subjectivity and tried to absolutely throw it out the window, but also acknowledge that that would be completely understandable for someone not to trust me.

 

But that's why I think you should try it yourself rather than blindly trust someone like PFF.

 

 

You don't have to be.

 

Try it yourself and draw your own conclusions if you're that skeptical of mine.

 

If you distrust them that much, though, and just don't want to try the exercise, then what's the point of your arguing with me over something you refuse to do?

 

 

Agreed.

why did i bring up Taylor? lol. i used it as support for my argument of not only your confirmation bias but, apparently to your cognitive dissonance, as well. you claim that PFF using NINE categories was overly intricate and impossible to chart but when you did it, it was okay. understand?

 

i trust PFF because analysis over yours because they don't carry the same bias as you do, nothing more, nothing less.

 

as to your part about JA's accuracy out of college, PFF glossing over his stats and PFF's, 'discarding throwaways or batted/tipped passes', i don't know what to tell you. yes, JA probably didn't get the extreme scrutiny other 1A QB's did in school and that most of it was based upon the games he played against 1A schools. but it was based upon observations made and there were games that he was not close to being on target in several areas. he has displayed some of that in his rookie year, if one were to claim he hasn't, that is just being dishonest. his stats were affected in a myriad of ways and yes, a glossing over of them was most likely one but not a totally inaccurate summary. can he correct it, he made strides this past year but the book is not closed at this early juncture, he still has a ways to go. with regard to throwaways and tipped/batted passes, not sure what you are trying to insinuate here but if a ball is thrown away, does it count in his overall stats if viewed on the curve you are projecting? same with tipped batted balls, though that category is somewhat different.

 

do you understand that although you 'tried to absolutely throw your subjectivity out', that there is a good chance there was still some there?

 

no, i won't do the exercise myself. one my bias would get in the way, because i am a homer. two, i don't have the time nor the desire, it will borne itself out in the coming days. three, if your track record wasn't what it is in these evaluations, i would give them more credence. like i said, i do admire the effort and the perseverance to think that every QB the Bills have is simply the best. with that i will resume the sideline watch and leave you to your thread for now.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Foxx

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

why did i bring up Taylor? lol. i used it as support for my argument of not only your confirmation bias but, apparently to your cognitive dissonance, as well. you claim that PFF using NINE categories was overly intricate and impossible to chart but when you did it, it was okay. understand?

 

But it doesn't support your argument.

 

I'm assuming you're pointing to my breakdown of Taylor throwing over the middle of the field a few years ago?

 

#1:  That wasn't an overly intricate or impossible to chart system.

 

#2:  You're really going to use an argument made now 3 years ago--I believe that was the offseason after Taylor's 1st year--to support your adhominem argument?  Doesn't make much sense

 

Understand?

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

i trust PFF because analysis over yours because they don't carry the same bias as you do, nothing more, nothing less.

 

No, they might not carry the same bias as me, but that doesn't mean they don't carry bias.

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

as to your part about JA's accuracy out of college, PFF glossing over his stats and PFF's, 'discarding throwaways or batted/tipped passes', i don't know what to tell you. yes, JA probably didn't get the extreme scrutiny other 1A QB's did in school and that most of it was based upon the games he played against 1A schools. but it was based upon observations made and there were games that he was not close to being on target in several areas. he has displayed some of that in his rookie year, if one were to claim he hasn't, that is just being dishonest. his stats were affected in a myriad of ways and yes, a glossing over of them was most likely one but not a totally inaccurate summary. can he correct it, he made strides this past year but the book is not closed at this early juncture, he still has a ways to go. with regard to throwaways and tipped/batted passes, not sure what you are trying to insinuate here but if a ball is thrown away, does it count in his overall stats if viewed on the curve you are projecting? same with tipped batted balls, though that category is somewhat different.

 

Of course throwaways are part of overall stats.

 

Duh.

 

But does PFF count them?

 

Do they count batted/tipped passes?

 

That image just shows passes that are underthrows and overthrows.  So are throwaways in the overthrow category?  Considering a throwaway is something often thought of as a positive thing, to include them in an accuracy breakdown is disingenuous.

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

do you understand that although you 'tried to absolutely throw your subjectivity out', that there is a good chance there was still some there?

 

Of course.  How many times have I said that already?  How many times do you need me to say it?

 

And do you understand that PFF has people, not robots charting all of these passes and that all people are subjective?

 

I didn't expect my findings to sway a poster like you who has it out for me, but at the very least, I would have hoped it would have pushed you to look at at least a handful of games, chart your findings, come back with what you have so you can then shoot me down rather than just lazily accept PFF's findings.

 

My problem isn't even with the numbers they came up with for Allen, it's the pretty clear disparity between his numbers and those of Mayfield and Jackson.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

no, i won't do the exercise myself. one my bias would get in the way, because i am a homer. two, i don't have the time nor the desire, it will borne itself out in the coming days. three, if your track record wasn't what it is in these evaluations, i would give them more credence. like i said, i do admire the effort and the perseverance to think that every QB the Bills have is simply the best. with that i will resume the sideline watch and leave you to your thread for now.

 

Would your bias be in the way in the sense that you'd be looking to find any way to discredit my own findings?  You aren't that petty, are you?

 

As far as time, believe it or not, you can do it relatively quickly if you have 2 browsers open and gamepass.  Just click on the game logs and look at the play by plays and find where all the passes are so you can go right to those passes rather than watching every play.  

 

Sacrifice a couple hours of reading and posting on here for charting your own numbers and you aren't sacrificing any time at all, actually.  That's what I did.

 

As far as track record for evaluations, I think I've done visual evaluations of plays on gamepass only one other time and that was the Taylor middle of the field thing a few years ago that you referenced, and again, much to your distaste of Taylor, there wasn't much wrong there, either.

[JaCrispy]

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

Edited January 31, 2019 by JaCrispy

[transplantbillsfan]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yes, but he didn't make throws like that enough. He was very inconsistent, hence people saying he is inaccurate. 

 

Enough by what metric?

 

Your own or the standard held to other NFL rookie QBs?

 

If it's the latter--which is what I'd assume you're referring to--the worst thing I think you could say is that Allen's "inaccurate" passes were wider or more off the mark than the other rookies, but his inaccurate throws didn't actually happen with greater frequency than the other guys.

Edited January 31, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/31/2019 at 11:37 AM, JaCrispy said:

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

 

Well... I guess that would partially explain why he's bringin up irrelevant old $#!+ the way my wife does in the middle of and argument about why I didn't take the garbage out.

 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well... I guess that would partially explain why he's bringin up irrelevant old $#!+ the way my wife does in the middle of and argument about why I didn't take the garbage out.

 

 

I don’t know, but......maybe you should just take out the garbage? 

[Warcodered]

Just now, Augie said:

 

I don’t know, but......maybe you should just take out the garbage? 

Or stop biting her on the ass.

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Or stop biting her on the ass.

 

That did not appear to be the foreplay she was looking for. Read the mood, dude! 

[transplantbillsfan]

49 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Or stop biting her on the ass.

 

45 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That did not appear to be the foreplay she was looking for. Read the mood, dude! 

 

Hey, she never used our safe word

[PrimeTime101]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Hey, she never used our safe word

Accuracy >>> there I said it

[Foxx]

history is our best guide to future performance.

[racketmaster]

I think the OP has done a lot of work in reviewing the tape and makes some great points. For my own part I went back and reviewed one of Allen's games (week 13 v. Miami).

His passing stat line for the game was 18 of 33 for 231yds and 2Tds and 2ints. And for this discussion the all important completion % was 54%. Not that impressive if you just look at the raw numbers. But watching the game closely tells a different story and here is what I saw:

Throwaways to avoid sacks: 4

Hail Mary at end of half because our kicker could not attempt a 58yd field goal and this resulted in 1 of his interceptions. 

Drops: 4 including a big drop by Benjamin that would have been a TD (alligator arms) and the back shoulder throw to Zay on final drive that was perfectly placed and overturned.

Big time throws: 7 

Misses: 6 (and I struggled with the final play to Clay and decided to make it a drop because Clay got his hands under it and I see wrs make that play 8 times out of 10)

Rushing: 9 for 135 

 

So of the 33 pass attempts Allen missed on 6 of them. He had a couple of bad misses early in the game but settled down as game progressed. In reality, Allen was on target for 22 of 28 passes in this game (I extracted the hail marry and 4 drops). So he was on target for 78.5% of his passes and he made 7 big time throws. He had very few check down and screen completions so he was pushing the ball down the field. 

 

I think we can live with 6 missed throws in a game, especially if it amounts to just 1 interception. Plus, with all the rushing, avoiding sacks and big time throws Allen more than made up for the misses. I'll take a look at some more games but to the OP's point, Allen does not appear to be an inaccurate passer. 

 

Edited February 2, 2019 by racketmaster

[racketmaster]

Jets week 14: Allen stat line is 18 of 36 for 201yds and 0tds and 2ints (less than impressive stat line). What does reviewing the game show:

Throwaways: 2

Drops: 7 (this includes the Zay Jones play in end zone on 3rd down at end of game as it was really close as to whether he could get his feet down but perfect throw and went threw his hands again)

Big time throws: I saw only 3

Misses: 9 including 2 interceptions

In reality Allen was on target for 25 of 34 passes for an on target rate of 73.5%. He had a number of bad and critical drops in this game but also threw 2 bad interceptions. Not included was his 9 carries for 101 yards and 1 td. Not his best game but he played well enough to win and our special teams was horrible in this game. 

[racketmaster]

Detroit Week 15: Allen stat line is 13 of 26 for 204yds 1td and 0int. 

Watching game shows:

Throwaways: 5

Hail Mary: 1 at end of first half he makes desperation throw down field to Jones but broken up

Drops/Broken up: I had 2 drops and 1 to Jones that was on target but broken up by a defensive back

Big time throws: 4

Misses: 3

So in reality Allen was on target with 17 of 20 passes for an 85% on target rate. Plus he had a nice rushing td in this game. 

[racketmaster]

So in 3 watching 3 of Allen's games he has been on target with 64 of 82 passes in which he was attempting to hit a target (extracted throwaways and hail mary throws). That is an on target rate of 78% (almost 4 of 5 passes are on target).

Not sure what the league average is but watching the Allen's games coming back from his injury he appears to be fairly accurate. Plus, he add a rushing dimension and the ability to make big time chunk throws. 

 

Upgrading the te/wr/rb position in talent would certainly help the completion percentage and will add passing yardage as well as passing tds. Allen is an aggressive passer who likes to push the ball down the field. I don't think he will ever be a league leader in completion percentage but I think with better targets he can get close to 60%. That is good enough with his rushing and ability to create chunk plays in the passing game.

[row_33]

On 1/31/2019 at 4:37 PM, JaCrispy said:

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

 

Most depressing waste of time this week

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, racketmaster said:

So in 3 watching 3 of Allen's games he has been on target with 64 of 82 passes in which he was attempting to hit a target (extracted throwaways and hail mary throws). That is an on target rate of 78% (almost 4 of 5 passes are on target).

Not sure what the league average is but watching the Allen's games coming back from his injury he appears to be fairly accurate. Plus, he add a rushing dimension and the ability to make big time chunk throws. 

 

Upgrading the te/wr/rb position in talent would certainly help the completion percentage and will add passing yardage as well as passing tds. Allen is an aggressive passer who likes to push the ball down the field. I don't think he will ever be a league leader in completion percentage but I think with better targets he can get close to 60%. That is good enough with his rushing and ability to create chunk plays in the passing game.

 

Considering I came up with 78.1% overall for Catchable passes on the season, I'd say your 78% is pretty damn well in line with what I saw.

 

And your anecdotal breakdowns of each game are great.

 

Good stuff!

[John from Riverside]

On 1/31/2019 at 1:37 PM, JaCrispy said:

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

OK....I had to laugh at this

[racketmaster]

54 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Considering I came up with 78.1% overall for Catchable passes on the season, I'd say your 78% is pretty damn well in line with what I saw.

 

And your anecdotal breakdowns of each game are great.

 

Good stuff!

I added weeks 16 and 17 in and that brought Allen's on target rate down a bit to 73.7%. Outside of the clear throwaways, hail mary plays and obvious drops, I pretty much consider the incompletions to be misses even though some of those are obvious miscommunication plays between the wr and qb. I put it on Allen as a miss because he is the one targeting the wr and needs to make sure they are on the same page. 

 

In week 16 I had Allen going 26 of 39 for 66% (I have the full breakdown like the others but most are probably not interested in it). In reality Allen's stats were not good 20 of 41 for 217yds 1td and 2int. However, the yardage and touchdowns could have been much different as I saw 3 touchdown opportunities slipped through the Bills wrs hands. (1) Foster in sun was there and should have been a long td, (2) Foster at goaline miss timed his jump and let an opportunity slip away, (3) Logan Thomas let a big time throw slip threw his hands in the end zone. Catch 2 of 3 and the stats look very different as does the game.

 

In week 17 I had Allen being on target 17 of 24 passes at 70.8%. He had 7 misses in this game including the pick 6 which was a nice read by the defender. Still he accounted for 5tds and was pretty dynamic on the ground again.