Mikey152 Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 Precision can be calculated in one of two ways when it comes to throwing a football, and neither of them are possible during a live game due to A) a sample set of 1 per pass attempt (ie every attempt is different and has a million variables) and B) Throws are spacial, time-relevant, and optimal location (and therefore intent) is contingent on situation. So the reality is...we really only are talking about accuracy here. But, semantics aside...clearly the evaluation of accuracy is flawed for some of the same reasons (B) and because an "accurate pass" is subjective...it's why opinions on Josh Allen's accuracy varies so wildly. I don't have stats to back it up, but I would say that from a strictly observational standpoint...When Josh Allen has time and a clean pocket, he has the ability to deliver the football as accurately and consistently (ie precisely) as anyone in the league to all levels of the field. I don't recall too many misfires, and conversely saw quite a few dead-accurate passes, in this scenario. I think he would destroy other QBs at an "accuracy" skills challenge, for example. Where he struggles is when he is rushed, trying to do too much, and misreads/miscommunication. Those are all things that get better with experience, IMO (and with better teammates)...and I think for those of us that have watched him, it's why he looks a lot better when you watch him than he does on paper. I think OP's analysis at least partially helps to bridge that gap.
oldmanfan Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Mikey152 said: Precision can be calculated in one of two ways when it comes to throwing a football, and neither of them are possible during a live game due to A) a sample set of 1 per pass attempt (ie every attempt is different and has a million variables) and B) Throws are spacial, time-relevant, and optimal location (and therefore intent) is contingent on situation. So the reality is...we really only are talking about accuracy here. But, semantics aside...clearly the evaluation of accuracy is flawed for some of the same reasons (B) and because an "accurate pass" is subjective...it's why opinions on Josh Allen's accuracy varies so wildly. I don't have stats to back it up, but I would say that from a strictly observational standpoint...When Josh Allen has time and a clean pocket, he has the ability to deliver the football as accurately and consistently (ie precisely) as anyone in the league to all levels of the field. I don't recall too many misfires, and conversely saw quite a few dead-accurate passes, in this scenario. I think he would destroy other QBs at an "accuracy" skills challenge, for example. Where he struggles is when he is rushed, trying to do too much, and misreads/miscommunication. Those are all things that get better with experience, IMO (and with better teammates)...and I think for those of us that have watched him, it's why he looks a lot better when you watch him than he does on paper. I think OP's analysis at least partially helps to bridge that gap. Good stuff. You nail it on precision and accuracy in that the only true way would be off field at a specific target. I have made the statement that Allen needs to be more precise and I agree based one one throw that is not measurable. My statement is directed more at say an entire games worth of throws, where I see receivers having to reach back a bit, or where they make a catch but aren't in position to get YAC. I feel he's accurate on such throws but could be more precise, with the assumption that he wanted to hit a different specific target within the catch radius than he did, such that receivers would be running after catch and such. Thanks for this post.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 17, 2019 Author Posted January 17, 2019 5 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said: Actually, yes. The QB who threw the two passes 5 yards out is less accurate, as his misses weren't closer to the target. Accuracy (as @oldmanfan has said a few times in this thread) is the ability to consistently land in the area of the target. Precision is the ability to consistently hit a small area, regardless of its relation to the target. Obviously, you want both, but accuracy is better in the NFL, because it will at least give the receiver a chance to catch the pass, whereas precision, on its own, could mean that the pass is NEVER near the receiver. Now, I just said the above to lend clarity for other posters. As far as the actual situation of Allen sailing some throws into the middle of nowhere, it doesn't make a difference in completion percentage between him and the guy who doesn't, but still misses. Like you alluded- the results on the stat chart are the same. I'll also say that I like the head-scratchers more than the near-misses, because head-scratchers are probably an indication of miscommunication, rather than inaccuracy. So in these situations, given miscommunication as a valid reason for the miss, and taking those throws out of the equation, Allen is actually more accurate, and has a higher completion percentage than the other QB. Aside from arguing the details of accuracy vs. precision, which QB would you rather have, the one who puts 83% of his passes in a place his WR can catch it or the one who puts 76% of his passes in a place where his WR can catch it?
GunnerBill Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 22 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said: They traded for Benjamin and Matthews, traded up for Zay (instead of JuJu or Kupp), and drafted Ray Ray over ESB. This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point.
C.Biscuit97 Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point. Honestly with ESB, it’s all about upside. He’s 6’5” fast and played with a terrible throwing qb in college. I barely remember Ray Ray, who played at Clemson and wasn’t even their best slot receiver (that was 38 year old Hunter). I think it would have been for Allen to grow with a freak type receiver his rookie year. thats what drives me crazy about all the blame the other players are getting. The staff that picked Allen put together this offense. It didn’t have to be terrible. Allen didn’t have to be forced into playing if they managed the QB position. i swear this is nothing person. I didn’t like Allen before the draft because those guys fail at super high rates. I know people who know Allen and hear he’s a great dude. I want to be wrong. But I hope he isn’t going into the offseason thinking he doesn’t need to become a better passer because his wrs sucked. 60% passer with a 2:1 td:int ratio isn’t too much to hope for. And I sincerely hope he gets it because we might actually have a franchise guy. 1
BringBackFlutie Posted January 17, 2019 Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said: Aside from arguing the details of accuracy vs. precision, which QB would you rather have, the one who puts 83% of his passes in a place his WR can catch it or the one who puts 76% of his passes in a place where his WR can catch it? What does that have to do with the part you put in bold? It was my impression that you were making an argument that putting a ball out of reach, whether by a small or large margin, is still putting the ball out of reach (all of those passes are uncatchable). Therefore, regardless of where the ball is when it's out of reach, both cases result in the same completion %. I was merely nitpicking your terminology, because you said both QBs are equally "accurate," rather than both have the same "completion %." I figured it would be helpful for me to point that out to you, since a lot of your OP revolves around the idea that completion % != accuracy. ...And obviously I want 83%.
Shaw66 Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, BringBackFlutie said: What does that have to do with the part you put in bold? It was my impression that you were making an argument that putting a ball out of reach, whether by a small or large margin, is still putting the ball out of reach (all of those passes are uncatchable). Therefore, regardless of where the ball is when it's out of reach, both cases result in the same completion %. I was merely nitpicking your terminology, because you said both QBs are equally "accurate," rather than both have the same "completion %." I figured it would be helpful for me to point that out to you, since a lot of your OP revolves around the idea that completion % != accuracy. ...And obviously I want 83%. I'msure you guys are having fun, and I'll jump in only to respond to your characterization of the OP. The OP is NOT about completion percentage + accuracy. The OP is about the fact that if you look at various pieces of data, like catchable and uncatchable balls, that relate in some ways to a passer's accuracy, the data suggest that Allen is no less accurate, or at least no more inaccurate, than the rest of the rookie QB class. I didn't here him trying to prove that Allen is accurate. Rather, he was trying to show that there isn't much of a statistical reason to argue that Allen is any more inaccurate than his peers, none of whom get the "accuracy" comment from the national media. .
transplantbillsfan Posted January 18, 2019 Author Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point. Who the friggin hell is ESB?
transplantbillsfan Posted January 18, 2019 Author Posted January 18, 2019 (edited) 4 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said: What does that have to do with the part you put in bold? It was my impression that you were making an argument that putting a ball out of reach, whether by a small or large margin, is still putting the ball out of reach (all of those passes are uncatchable). Therefore, regardless of where the ball is when it's out of reach, both cases result in the same completion %. I was merely nitpicking your terminology, because you said both QBs are equally "accurate," rather than both have the same "completion %." I figured it would be helpful for me to point that out to you, since a lot of your OP revolves around the idea that completion % != accuracy. ...And obviously I want 83%. Huh? You think that I'm arguing that completion percentage = accuracy? Am I misreading that? That's absolutely not what I said. This thread has turned into an argument over how to define accuracy and the difference between accuracy and precision. I get the reason that discussion evolved, but mainly my conclusion after doing this exercise is that as far as the rookie QBs go, Allen throws the ball where it should/could be caught just fine. Obviously he can improve, and I'm sure he's the first to tell you that. But his rookie year as a QB passing the football was pretty much as promising as the rest of this highly touted rookie QB class. Really the exercise I would want to do would be to explore previous rookie QB classes to make that comparison. Rookies always have to improve. Comparing him to Brees or Brady and criticizing him or any other rookie based on that comparison is just stupid. Allen's rookie season looked absolutely more than fine as far as rookie seasons go for him passing the football. And even though I expect and want him to improve, I think if we simply upgrade our offensive weapons to guys who can catch the damn ball and our OL is no longer a sieve, even with no personal improvements in the offseason and a replicated rookie season as far as accuracy goes, I think his numbers will still skyrocket and this team will still exceed the expectations of most. Edited January 18, 2019 by transplantbillsfan
HappyDays Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Who the friggin hell is ESB? Equanimeous St. Brown, a receiver who was drafted by Green Bay in the 6th round and ended the season with less receiving yards than UDFA Robert Foster. Don't worry if you haven't heard of him. A few people were obsessed with him before the draft and haven't let it go. He had 328 yards with Rodgers throwing him the ball. We didn't miss out on anything.
HappyDays Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: This. Though I don't love ESB to be honest. I'd rather point out that they took Ray Ray and Austin Proehl over Robert Foster and risked losing him in the lottery of UDFA. That looks pretty dumb at this point. 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs are practically interchangeable. Trying to predict which of those late round players will be successful is impossible. https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#cd4cc8b7495b If you find one decent starter from your pool of 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs you're doing well. The Bills found 2 last year.
BringBackFlutie Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said: Huh? You think that I'm arguing that completion percentage = accuracy? Am I misreading that? That's absolutely not what I said. This thread has turned into an argument over how to define accuracy and the difference between accuracy and precision. I get the reason that discussion evolved, but mainly my conclusion after doing this exercise is that as far as the rookie QBs go, Allen throws the ball where it should/could be caught just fine. Obviously he can improve, and I'm sure he's the first to tell you that. But his rookie year as a QB passing the football was pretty much as promising as the rest of this highly touted rookie QB class. Really the exercise I would want to do would be to explore previous rookie QB classes to make that comparison. Rookies always have to improve. Comparing him to Brees or Brady and criticizing him or any other rookie based on that comparison is just stupid. Allen's rookie season looked absolutely more than fine as far as rookie seasons go for him passing the football. And even though I expect and want him to improve, I think if we simply upgrade our offensive weapons to guys who can catch the damn ball and our OL is no longer a sieve, even with no personal improvements in the offseason and a replicated rookie season as far as accuracy goes, I think his numbers will still skyrocket and this team will still exceed the expectations of most. Bruh. I get all that, and I totally get the premise of the OP and I'm on board. I don't understand this analogy: "But how much does it really matter if you have, for example, 2 QBs who throw 30 passes. QB#1 throws 25 into the WR's hands, 3 just out of reach of his outstretched arms and 2 throws end up 5 yards away. QB #2 throws 23 into the WR's hands and 7 just out of reach of his outstretched arms. QB#1 might have those twitter worthy WTF throws you can point to, but was he really less accurate?" You say "accurate" at the end there. I want to know, by what definition? I can't understand the analogy when applying my definition. That's all. I thought I knew what you were saying when I assumed you misspoke. ?
Mikey152 Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 7 hours ago, oldmanfan said: Good stuff. You nail it on precision and accuracy in that the only true way would be off field at a specific target. I have made the statement that Allen needs to be more precise and I agree based one one throw that is not measurable. My statement is directed more at say an entire games worth of throws, where I see receivers having to reach back a bit, or where they make a catch but aren't in position to get YAC. I feel he's accurate on such throws but could be more precise, with the assumption that he wanted to hit a different specific target within the catch radius than he did, such that receivers would be running after catch and such. Thanks for this post. Whether or not I agree with the terminology, I totally get what you are trying to say and I agree with you...he was not an efficient passer, and part of that was due to ball placement. What I also think is, under certain (ie ideal) circumstances, he throws darts and can do so to all areas of the field. It’s those throws where he needs to gear down a little or quickly move his feet that he seems to be less consistent with...I’m not sure he will ever be more than ok at them. It’s the downside of having a rocket arm...you have to take so much off to get the proper trajectory, it’s almost impossible to maintain proper mechanics consistently...if you’ve ever tried to throw a football to a small child, it’s almost impossible to slow your arm down and still throw an accurate spiral. The other misfires are often timing related...throwing to a spot too early or too late (or right on time but your receiver is early or late) can have a huge impact, and throwing as hard as he does only exacerbates the problem because receivers don’t have as much time to adjust and make the throw look even wilder than it really is. I think those issue will work themselves out over time.
Ol Dirty B Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 7:46 AM, formerlyofCtown said: **** the Media And that kind of sentiment is why the country is where it's at. You realize if Josh Allen wasn't a Bill you wouldn't be rooting for him, and most likely agreeing with the sports media. The opinion wasn't going to change unless he went to the Patriots or New Orleans. Secondly, this thread is crazy. I stopped taking it seriously when the Clay pass in the endzone was basically considered a drop. You have a point you wish to be true and nothing is objective about this. You created your own set of standards and everything. Which is fine, but it is obvious you are inherently biased whereas the people you disagree with aren't for the most part. Some definitely were hard on him pre draft and want to see him fail so they can say they were right, but I think that's the minority. I hope he works out, he shows flashes, but then he does some really bad things. I don't think anyone can definitively say he will be great or a bust. But I do know he isn't accurate, that isn't made up. I shouldn't even say inaccurate, he just isn't consistent at this point.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 18, 2019 Author Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, BringBackFlutie said: Bruh. I get all that, and I totally get the premise of the OP and I'm on board. I don't understand this analogy: "But how much does it really matter if you have, for example, 2 QBs who throw 30 passes. QB#1 throws 25 into the WR's hands, 3 just out of reach of his outstretched arms and 2 throws end up 5 yards away. QB #2 throws 23 into the WR's hands and 7 just out of reach of his outstretched arms. QB#1 might have those twitter worthy WTF throws you can point to, but was he really less accurate?" You say "accurate" at the end there. I want to know, by what definition? I can't understand the analogy when applying my definition. That's all. I thought I knew what you were saying when I assumed you misspoke. ? I don't really feel like arguing the semantics of the meanings of a word. I think we're on the same page
BringBackFlutie Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, transplantbillsfan said: I don't really feel like arguing the semantics of the meanings of a word. I think we're on the same page Well. At least accept my heart.
transplantbillsfan Posted January 18, 2019 Author Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said: Well. At least accept my heart. 1
GunnerBill Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, HappyDays said: 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs are practically interchangeable. Trying to predict which of those late round players will be successful is impossible. https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#cd4cc8b7495b If you find one decent starter from your pool of 6th rounders, 7th rounders, and UDFAs you're doing well. The Bills found 2 last year. Indeed. But they took 3 players at the same position and it was the last of those 3 who found success.
formerlyofCtown Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said: And that kind of sentiment is why the country is where it's at. You realize if Josh Allen wasn't a Bill you wouldn't be rooting for him, and most likely agreeing with the sports media. The opinion wasn't going to change unless he went to the Patriots or New Orleans. Secondly, this thread is crazy. I stopped taking it seriously when the Clay pass in the endzone was basically considered a drop. You have a point you wish to be true and nothing is objective about this. You created your own set of standards and everything. Which is fine, but it is obvious you are inherently biased whereas the people you disagree with aren't for the most part. Some definitely were hard on him pre draft and want to see him fail so they can say they were right, but I think that's the minority. I hope he works out, he shows flashes, but then he does some really bad things. I don't think anyone can definitively say he will be great or a bust. But I do know he isn't accurate, that isn't made up. I shouldn't even say inaccurate, he just isn't consistent at this point. lighten Up.
GunnerBill Posted January 18, 2019 Posted January 18, 2019 4 hours ago, Ol Dirty B said: Some definitely were hard on him pre draft and want to see him fail so they can say they were right, but I think that's the minority. I hope he works out, he shows flashes, but then he does some really bad things. I don't think anyone can definitively say he will be great or a bust. But I do know he isn't accurate, that isn't made up. I shouldn't even say inaccurate, he just isn't consistent at this point. These two bits I absolutely agree with. His accuracy is still inconsistent - that was my view on him coming out at well. Not that he was fundamentally inaccurate but that he has flashes of unexplained inaccuracy. I have said on here that I do think there was some progress on that in the latter half of the season - he seemed to have fewer of those head scratch inaccurate throws when he gets into a rhythm (which is probably normal). When they come they tend to come early in games, early in halves and early in drives. I don't think he is every going to be Drew Brees (only Nathan Peterman can meet that high standard ?) but he has shown some growth.
Recommended Posts