The 2019 Narcissist Forecasting Contest

[KD in CA]

A friend of mine put this out on facebook, don't know how widespread it is but thought some here might enjoy opining on a variety of subjects.   Or of course, add your own subjects/predictions for the new year.

 

Estimate a probability of 0-100% for each of 25 events to take place in 2019.

 

1. On February 1, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will have more Twitter followers than Kellyanne Conway *
2. The NFC team will win Super Bowl LIII [expected resolution by 2/3/19] *
3. Childish Gambino’s “This is America” will win the Grammy award for best song [expected 2/10/19] *
4. At any time on March 1, Kamala Harris will lead in the PredictIt 2020 Democratic nomination market *
5. By March 2, the US and China will reach agreement on a trade deal confirmed by the US Trade Representative *
6. The UK will officially leave the European Union by April 1
 *
7. The US unemployment rate will be higher in the first quarter of 2019 than in the fourth quarter of 2018 [expected 4/5/19]
 *
8. By April 15, Uber will conduct an IPO resulting in a valuation over $70 billion *
9. A US government official will be impeached by the House of Representatives by May 1
 *
10. New York State will legalize recreational marijuana by May 15 *
11. Narendra Modi will be reëlected PM of India [expected 5/31/19]
 *
12. Kanye West will release the “Yandhi” album by June 1
 *
13. Sarah Huckabee Sanders will cease to be White House Press Secretary by June 15
 *
14. USA will repeat as Women’s World Cup champions [expected 7/7/19] *
15. Hedge funds (per Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index) will outperform the S&P 500 over the first half of 2019 [expected 7/11/19] *
16. Tiger Woods will win a major [expected 7/21/19] *
17. Significant US data privacy legislation will be passed and signed before the summer recess [expected 8/2/19] *
18. There will be a fatality involving a self-driving car in the US by August 15 *
19. On September 1, PewDiePie will have the most-subscribed YouTube channel
 *
20. Serena Williams will break the grand slam singles title record [expected 9/7/19] *
21. By September 30, Elizabeth Holmes will be sentenced to, or will reach a plea agreement entailing, at least 10 years in jail *
22. By October 6, a men’s track and field world record will be broken in sprinting or middle-distance running *
23. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will hear the first oral argument of the Supreme Court’s 2019-2020 term [expected 10/7/19] *
24. Prince Charles will become King of England prior to Guy Fawkes Day [expected 11/5/19]
 *
25. Russia will invade or annex territory from another country by November 30 *
 

[DC Tom]

Aw, dammit.  I thought we'd be forecasting people's narcissism.

 

I had OC at 98%...just to avoid validating him.