Does CFB Championship game end the “they can beat a pro team” stuff finally?

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

 

When many examples are 9 months after their last college game is it that crazy?

 

how much better is an nfl rookie team an elite cfb player in the national championship before entering the draft? What’s the differential in ability in that guy?

 

Foster wasn’t good enough in college to even get drafted.  So I would say a lot.  

[billsfan89]

NFL teams are college All-Star teams with players who are grown men most of whom have spent the past 2-10 years playing football as a profession. Even Alabama last year only had 11 players drafted. 4 players drafted in the first round, 0 players drafted in the second round, 1 player drafted in the third round, 2 players drafted in round 4, 1 player drafted in round 5 (A punter), 2 players drafted in round 6, and 2 players drafted in round 7. 

 

That means that they only had 5 players drafted in the first three rounds and 7 drafted in the first four rounds. Odds are that out of the 11 players drafted at least 5-6 will struggle in their rookie years and there isn't going to be more than 1-2 players that go un-drafted that are contributors right away at an NFL level. Even if you think there are 3-4 really good NFL ready underclassmen that still only leaves you with 7-9 NFL caliber out the gate players on the entire roster with maybe some fringe backups sprinkled in on one of the best college programs. 

 

That's not too shabby but you need 22 starters, rotational/role players, special teams players, and backup players all of which even the worst NFL team provides all across their roster with elite college players. This idea that any college team would be able to compete with the worst NFL team is always laughable when you breakdown the numbers of how many NFL draft picks each program produces and how many of those draft picks actually have good rookie seasons. 

Edited January 18, 2019 by billsfan89

[row_33]

19 hours ago, ButchCT said:

That Clemson QB and o-line might be able to beat the Cardinals.  Only because the QB is that good, IMO.  Let the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes commence.

 

C’mon....

[Chandler#81]

To the OPs question, no, it’ll never end. Back in the ‘60s, college All-Stars played a preseason game vs the defending Champs of both Leagues (AFL & NFL). Because it was the 1st game for the Pros and the last game for the All Stars, the kids won a few of them - including beating Lombardi’s Pack. We played in 2, most notably in Houston where “colored” players weren’t allowed in the same hotel with whites. The Bills boycotted the game and the League, rather than admonishing the city, moved the game to San Antonio, I believe. 

 

Anyway, the series quickly ended with the unnecessary injury concerns, but the effect still lingers that the best college players could beat a pro champion. Frankly, there've been a few Bills teams in memory I was convinced could lose to the North Tonawanda Lumberjacks.. 

[HappyDays]

On 1/17/2019 at 9:22 PM, NoSaint said:

even this years bills could knock off a super bowl contender given enough shots. Bama in theory should be able to hang with a bad nfl team occasionally 

 

I don't think they could hang with them even in theory. Injuries would rule the day. I could see Alabama occasionally winning if each team got one drive only. Like a rare freak occurrence where the NFL team fumbles the snap. But we're talking a full NFL game. By halftime I dont think many Alabama starters would be walking. Sometimes their depth players would have to rotate in even without taking injuries into account. They would have to field a special teams unit. If you played that game 1000 times, maybe in 10 of them Alabama keeps it relatively close in the 1st quarter. I think in all 1000 the point spread would be covered by the end of the 3rd quarter at a minimum.

Edited January 19, 2019 by HappyDays

[SinceThe70s]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think they could hang with them even in theory. Injuries would rule the day. I could see Alabama occasionally winning if each team got one drive only. Like a rare freak occurrence where the NFL team fumbles the snap. But we're talking a full NFL game. By halftime I dont think many Alabama starters would be walking. Sometimes their depth players would have to rotate in even without taking injuries into account. They would have to field a special teams unit. If you played that game 1000 times, maybe in 10 of them Alabama keeps it relatively close in the 1st quarter. I think in all 1000 the point spread would be covered by the end of the 3rd quarter at a minimum.

 

The locker room at halftime would look like a Vontae Davis convention.

[GunnerBill]

On 1/18/2019 at 2:23 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

And this Alabama roster does not currently have 22 starters on it who will all make the NFL.  And many of the guys who will, are going to be 4th round picks or lower and go on to have forgettable careers.  

 

One guy off the 2016 defense was picked as a 4th round or lower (Hamilton the safety who went to Detroit in the 6th). It is up to two when you talk about the 2017 defense because our own UDFA Levi Wallace was a starter that year. 

 

I think when it comes to defense it is simply wrong to say most will be 4th round or later guys who will have forgettable careers. 

 

I will crunch the numbers on the 2016 offense. 

[GoBills808]

On 1/17/2019 at 4:26 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

It’s not even “hang” as stay within 4 TDs. People are acting like it’s asinine to think that’s possible. If you look at the personnel though it isn’t that crazy at all.

 

The same goes for Clemson. Some people say, “we’d run all over them.” I look at it and think that they have 2 DTs, and a DE that will be off the board by 20. Am I supposed to believe that Bodine, Miller, Teller, Mills and Dawkins will physically dominate those guys? I certainly don’t believe that. Lawrence, Wilkins and Ferrell are better football players TODAY than any guy on our OL.

They held Yannick Ngakoue, Malik Jackson, and Calais Campbell to zero sacks. They would absolutely dominate a college d line.

[GunnerBill]

Okay Alabama Crimson Tide 2016 offensive starters:

 

QB: Jalen Hurts - likely not drafted may catch on as an UDFA if lucky..

 

RB: Damien Harris - likely drafted day 2 in 2019. 

 

RB: Bo Scarbrough - 7th round pick of the Cowboys in 2018. 

 

LT - Cam Robinson - 2nd round pick of Jaguars in 2017.

 

LG - Ross Pierschbacher - likely day 2 pick in 2019.

 

C - Bradley Bozeman - 6th round pick of the Ravens in 2018.

 

RG - Korren Kirven - UDFA in 2017 who has bounced around practice squads. 

 

RT - Jonah Williams - likely 1st round pick in 2019.

 

TE - OJ Howard - 1st round pick of the Buccaneers in 2017.

 

WR - Calvin Ridley - 1st round pick of the Falcons in 2018.

 

WR - ArDarius Stewart - 3rd round pick of the Jets in 2017 (now a FA).

 

 

So of that I think you have 3 1st rounders - Ridley, Howard and likely Jonah Williams. 

 

4 2nd or 3rd round picks (one of whom has already flamed out)..

 

Then 4 guys who are already or likely late rounders or UDFAs. 

 

The offensive list is certainly less impressive than the defensive list. I think Hurns, Kirven, Scarbrough and Stewart are guys about who the "won't even play in the league" line pretty much applies. Bozeman at the moment looks backup level. 

 

So I am going to say 10 of the 11 starting defenders (ie. All but Hamilton who at this stage is a STer only) and 6 of the offensive starters are going to be professionals who will be at a minimum starting level NFL players. That equates to about 73% of their 2016 starting line up. Still pretty impressive numbers. I think the 2018 Alabama team is better than the 2016 team in terms of offensive talent too, but it is certainly true that if that 2016 team had played the Titans (who I think went 2-14 that year for the worst record in the NFL there would have been a quarter of their starters who were not NFL level guys. 

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think they could hang with them even in theory. Injuries would rule the day. I could see Alabama occasionally winning if each team got one drive only. Like a rare freak occurrence where the NFL team fumbles the snap. But we're talking a full NFL game. By halftime I dont think many Alabama starters would be walking. Sometimes their depth players would have to rotate in even without taking injuries into account. They would have to field a special teams unit. If you played that game 1000 times, maybe in 10 of them Alabama keeps it relatively close in the 1st quarter. I think in all 1000 the point spread would be covered by the end of the 3rd quarter at a minimum.

 

Weird to say most wouldn’t be walking by halftime but many will be completing 16 games with the following year and nearly all will be playing pro ball within about 2 years.

 

theyd make more mistakes, and some wouldn’t be particularly competitive but any given year the best player on the field might be on the college team and they would have many nfl players. 

 

And to the guys pointing out they’d have busts too-well yea, those busts are the type of guys playing on the leagues worst team. 

 

The pro team would win. It wouldn’t be a slam dunk to be some massacre though. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

This topic is turning into the same type as religion, politics, or where someone stands on abortion. 

People are trying to use data to explain their position, which is making zero impact on what someone from the other belief feels is correct. 

I think we can all agree to disagree on this until they finally play the game. 

For the record I am 100% on the side of the college team doesn’t hang with the professional team. I am also a guy who loves SEC football and watches a good bit. I grew up around the Bills as a kid. I was able to ask players the biggest difference between pro and college and every time it’s the speed of the game. It’s just not the same yet. I feel the gap is getting shorter it takes to adjust to the speed of the pro game verse college. I think this has to do with practice rules at both levels, as well as training and nutrition. 

[row_33]

49 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This topic is turning into the same type as religion, politics, or where someone stands on abortion. 

People are trying to use data to explain their position, which is making zero impact on what someone from the other belief feels is correct. 

I think we can all agree to disagree on this until they finally play the game. 

For the record I am 100% on the side of the college team doesn’t hang with the professional team. I am also a guy who loves SEC football and watches a good bit. I grew up around the Bills as a kid. I was able to ask players the biggest difference between pro and college and every time it’s the speed of the game. It’s just not the same yet. I feel the gap is getting shorter it takes to adjust to the speed of the pro game verse college. I think this has to do with practice rules at both levels, as well as training and nutrition. 

 

It’s all a fun topical joke, don’t worry about it

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

This topic is turning into the same type as religion, politics, or where someone stands on abortion. 

People are trying to use data to explain their position, which is making zero impact on what someone from the other belief feels is correct. 

I think we can all agree to disagree on this until they finally play the game. 

For the record I am 100% on the side of the college team doesn’t hang with the professional team. I am also a guy who loves SEC football and watches a good bit. I grew up around the Bills as a kid. I was able to ask players the biggest difference between pro and college and every time it’s the speed of the game. It’s just not the same yet. I feel the gap is getting shorter it takes to adjust to the speed of the pro game verse college. I think this has to do with practice rules at both levels, as well as training and nutrition. 

 

There is some truth to this - I don't think we have even established an agreed data set at this point and so I still feel the argument is being had on misconceptions. I am very happy to have the debate and disagreement about whether kids still in college could overcome the lack of NFL conditioning and the lack of NFL game speed experience. Ultimately that, as you say, is a matter of belief and until the game is played (which it won't be) we can't know the answer.

 

Where I keep re-entering the fray is when inaccurate statements are made about who these players coming out of the University of Alabama programme at the moment ate. We are talking 75% of the 2016 Alabama starting 22 being picked in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft over a three year period (45% of them 10/22 as 1st rounders). The 2017 team will have similar numbers I think the 2018 team might do even better in that regard, and the 2018 Clemson roster isn't going to be far behind either. This is a new reality and so even if people haven't changed their conclusions about what that would mean in terms of a scoreline if these teams met a bottom end NFL opponent they have to recognise that the evidence for one of the critical factors - comparative talent levels - has changed and changed significantly. We are not talking here about a whole host of guys who will have fruitless NFL careers we are talking about an overwhelming majority of guys who are going to be good contributors on NFL teams.

Edited January 20, 2019 by GunnerBill

[row_33]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some truth to this - I don't think we have even established an agreed data set at this point and so I still feel the argument is being had on misconceptions. I am very happy to have the debate and disagreement about whether kids still in college could overcome the lack of NFL conditioning and the lack of NFL game speed experience. Ultimately that, as you say, is a matter of belief and until the game is played (which it won't be) we can't know the answer.

 

Where I keep re-entering the fray is when inaccurate statements are made about who these players coming out of the University of Alabama programme at the moment ate. We are talking 75% of the 2016 Alabama starting 22 being picked in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft over a three year period. The 2017 team will have similar numbers I think the 2018 team might do even better in that regard, and the 2018 Clemson roster isn't going to be far behind either. This is a new reality and so even if people haven't changed their conclusions about what that would mean in terms of a scoreline if these teams met a bottom end NFL opponent they have to recognise that the evidence for one of the critical factors - comparative talent levels - has changed and changed significantly. We are not talking here about a whole host of guys who will have fruitless NFL careers we are talking about an overwhelming majority of guys who are going to be good contributors on NFL teams.

 

Agreed data point set?

 

the whole topic is a goofy waste of time

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, row_33 said:

 

Agreed data point set?

 

the whole topic is a goofy waste of time

 

 

You are welcome to ignore it then.

[NoSaint]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some truth to this - I don't think we have even established an agreed data set at this point and so I still feel the argument is being had on misconceptions. I am very happy to have the debate and disagreement about whether kids still in college could overcome the lack of NFL conditioning and the lack of NFL game speed experience. Ultimately that, as you say, is a matter of belief and until the game is played (which it won't be) we can't know the answer.

 

Where I keep re-entering the fray is when inaccurate statements are made about who these players coming out of the University of Alabama programme at the moment ate. We are talking 75% of the 2016 Alabama starting 22 being picked in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft over a three year period (45% of them 10/22 as 1st rounders). The 2017 team will have similar numbers I think the 2018 team might do even better in that regard, and the 2018 Clemson roster isn't going to be far behind either. This is a new reality and so even if people haven't changed their conclusions about what that would mean in terms of a scoreline if these teams met a bottom end NFL opponent they have to recognise that the evidence for one of the critical factors - comparative talent levels - has changed and changed significantly. We are not talking here about a whole host of guys who will have fruitless NFL careers we are talking about an overwhelming majority of guys who are going to be good contributors on NFL teams.

 

The other thing that I think is getting lost in the conversation is that it’s a 28.5 point spread that started the debate. So “hang with some days” means stay within 4 touchdowns sometimes. 

 

 

[Kirby Jackson]

14 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

They held Yannick Ngakoue, Malik Jackson, and Calais Campbell to zero sacks. They would absolutely dominate a college d line.

Again, you think “college d line” instead of 3 1st rounders and a day 2 pick. They aren’t getting dominated by our scrub OL. That’s crazy talk.

[foreboding]

Pro Team 62

College all star team 10

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There is some truth to this - I don't think we have even established an agreed data set at this point and so I still feel the argument is being had on misconceptions. I am very happy to have the debate and disagreement about whether kids still in college could overcome the lack of NFL conditioning and the lack of NFL game speed experience. Ultimately that, as you say, is a matter of belief and until the game is played (which it won't be) we can't know the answer.

 

Where I keep re-entering the fray is when inaccurate statements are made about who these players coming out of the University of Alabama programme at the moment ate. We are talking 75% of the 2016 Alabama starting 22 being picked in the first 4 rounds of the NFL draft over a three year period (45% of them 10/22 as 1st rounders). The 2017 team will have similar numbers I think the 2018 team might do even better in that regard, and the 2018 Clemson roster isn't going to be far behind either. This is a new reality and so even if people haven't changed their conclusions about what that would mean in terms of a scoreline if these teams met a bottom end NFL opponent they have to recognise that the evidence for one of the critical factors - comparative talent levels - has changed and changed significantly. We are not talking here about a whole host of guys who will have fruitless NFL careers we are talking about an overwhelming majority of guys who are going to be good contributors on NFL teams.

This ^^^^

 

We need to stop saying “a college team” and look at the actual players. You’ve hit the nail on the head. 75% of their guys were round 4 or higher. How many NFL teams have 10 1st rounders? The talent gap isn’t there. The experience gap is. That is what will decide the game. A pro team wins because they will always be a step ahead. They don’t win because Miller, Bodine and Teller are blowing Wilkins and Lawrence off the ball. Those guys would DOMINATE our interior OL!!

[HappyDays]

11 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Weird to say most wouldn’t be walking by halftime but many will be completing 16 games with the following year and nearly all will be playing pro ball within about 2 years.

 

There is a huge difference between being hit by a college player and being hit by an NFL player. We're talking about Alabama playing this game tomorrow, with no additional preparation. Even the best rookies tend to struggle a bit at the start of training camp. It's a big adjustment. They have to warm up to the speed and violence of the pro game. Jonah Williams may turn out to be a good OT in a year or two. But if he goes up against a starting NFL edge rusher tomorrow he will lose that battle 9 times out of 10 and the intensity will hit his body hard. In college, a team like Alabama can start to take their foot off the gas in most games because they will eventually just wear the other team out. In the NFL that is what will happen to them. The NFL players are used to playing 16 professional games a year. Alabama is being thrown into one with zero NFL training and expected to hang with the pros for 60 minutes. That is why I think Alabama could in theory occasionally hang with the worst NFL team for a quarter, if everything went their way. But the longer the game goes on the NFL team would just pull away. If by some miracle the 4th quarter hit and they weren't winning by 28, they could beat Alabama into submission at that point and easily cover the spread.

 

There's so much discussion about the raw talent on Alabama, no one is talking about the fundamentals of the game. It's one thing for Quinnen Williams to win a matchup against Russell Bodine - I don't think anyone here is denying that could happen. But that's not the same thing as Quinnen Williams keeping up with the speed and intensity of an NFL game for 60 minutes before his body has adjusted to that. The way this thread is going you'd think rookie minicamp and training camp were totally useless. How about special teams? No one except me has bothered to mention that. Alabama special teamers would need to block for their punter against former starting college players who now have years of NFL experience. Is their punter even good enough to be a UDFA? I'm guessing they don't have to punt much against college competition. If they played the Bills tomorrow their punter would get quite the workout. I imagine at least 90% of their drives, not counting the ones that end in turnovers, would end with a punt. You think their punt blocking unit would be able to withstand 60 minutes of that punishment? Or would we just be bulldozing them for easy punt blocks by the 4th quarter? If/when Alabama's starters go down with injury, are their depth players also talented enough to hang with NFL players?

 

These are the questions that are lost in a sea of posts about how Alabama is full of NFL prospects. I don't care how many Alabama players will be 1st round draft picks. NFL games are about a lot more than just pure talent.