C.Biscuit97 Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Magox said: Were you frustrated with the Sammy trade up considering we could have had OBJ without doing so? Trading up for any non qb is probably stupid. But if you honestly thought OBJ was a better receiver pre draft than Sammy, you’re a liar. Sammy was one of the great college receivers ever: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/sammy-watkins-1.html https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/odell-beckham-jr-1.html for the record, I loved Mike Evans. 1 2
MJS Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 Interesting site. They don't appear to have week 17 included yet in the stats.
ILBillsfan Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 I think there is still ample time for Jones to only get better. A strong veteran presence would be nice to keep developing the young receivers.
Ronin Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, freddyjj said: The comparison is for perspective as I don't think folks know how long it takes most WRs to develop. How so? Jones was the 4th overall WR taken in the '17 Draft. For a high 2nd-rounder much more is expected. 5 WRs drafted after him have posted more yards, in all but one case significantly more yards than Jones. 3 rookie WRs from this year's class posted more yards this season than he did. They were drafted about where he went; 10 & 12 spots ahead and 4 behind. 11 WRs from this year's class had more yards in their rookie seasons than Jones did. Nearly half of them were round 3 and day-3 picks. 9 were drafted at positions later than his. The NFL has made it easier than ever, literally, for QBs and WRs to excel in the passing game. This is why RBs have little value anymore as well. Meanwhile, Jones ranked 177th (out of 202) in catch % this season, well ahead of where he was last season. Last season he was 210th out of 212 with only Kamar Aiken and Breshad Perriman behind him. He hasn't had a single 100-yard game in two seasons. This past game was only his second game of over 70 yards and it too, like most of the most of the rest of his play, was in he equivalent of garbage time. Even in this past game, 58 of hiis 93 yards and one of his two TDs came when the game was already over 35-17 in the 4th quarter. He only had 3 catches for 35 yards and all of his drops in the first 3 quarters. If you look at his splits you'll see that he's a poster-boy for garbage time stats. He was at EC too, that was easily seen, for anyone looking that is, well before that draft. Those are all facts. Isn't it simply possible that he was a bad pick at 36th overall and the staff misjudged the value in the NFL of a QB in college that also made a living, in a spread offense often featuring 5 WRs, in garbage time? Because to me that's clearly the case and was upon drafting him. All of that was out there for anyone that did the homework, which the team should have done. In order to be a starting WR in the NFL you have to be reliable, and there's absolutely nothing on record that even remotely indicates that Jones is reliable when the game is on the line or in the early stages. This ain't college, there's no room for a spread offense like EC ran, perptually, and the talent that Jones is going against is far different than what he faced in college and he simply hasn't answered the bell like his draft peers have. He doesn't beat anyone. He's a project, one that isn't worth the time and energy and that likely will never be more than a depth-caliber WR. If McBeane treats him as one of two starters next season they do so at their own risk.
Ronin Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 2 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said: Damn! That is some deep analysis. Looks like a bunch of numbers to me without much basis or explanation behind them. I mean pick say "Red Zone Target Share." What does that mean? I assume that it means the percentage of time he's targeted in the Red Zone but it doesn't specify. Same for most of the other values. Either way, he ranks #2 there. Of what, how many? His team? I can't imagine that it's league-wide, but here's the thing, isn't it more important, much, to look at what he does with those targets in the Red Zone? I certainly think so. If we look at his splits so far in two seasons he's got 26 targets but only 10 catches in the Red Zone. That can't possbily rank well. Of those targets, again, half in garbage time or the equivalent. As was pointed out above, this last game, while padding his stats on the season, contributed very little to the win. His first TD did but otherwise about 2/3 of his catches came well after the game was effectively over. When it was on-the-line he had a 50% catch rate, not good. Jones simply isn't a clutch player, not even close. He's done very little in two seasons with the game on the line and hasn't even approached his early 2nd-round billing.
Mojo44 Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 Zay gets a mulligan for his rookie year because he had Tyrod the Terrible. Once Allen got his game going he did OK. He gets another year before final judgment 2
Bing Bong Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, Magox said: Were you frustrated with the Sammy trade up considering we could have had OBJ without doing so? I wanted to stay pat for Mike Evans haha. OBJ was a wildcard sort of reach at the time IIRC. I don't think going for Watkins was a horrible idea given he was graded highest since Julio Jones and AJ Green I found it hard he wouldn't be that guy for Buffalo. I wanted Mike and we traded up for the consensus best WR, so I got the best player at the position I wanted. I wouldn't second guess the move. It sucks Sammy never panned out I think nobody in the draft expected his career to go the way it did. And he was pretty good when healthy regardless. Shocked he isn't a more high profile player with offenses like KC or Rams, but busts are always a possibility in this league. Even in the top 5, it's 50%, maybe less, you really get the player you're hoping for. Not something I'll knock Whaley for going HAM on offense with EJ and Watkins with a win now defense. Backloaded bad contracts in hindsight. He just didn't get it right and that's what happens when you gamble to win now. The right strategy for the team at the time. Bad execution. And then we got Wrexed when Tyrod (TBF a Rex dude) showed up for one last Whaley gasp. I don't think anybody saw the decline of Dareus and Mario Williams overnight. Whaley got gashed with his player selections, but he would have been crucified if he didn't try to keep that together while building an offense ASAP. Much higher expectations day 1 than McBeane. Anyways I wanted Mike Evans.. although part of me thinks he gets traded like Swatkins did too. OBJ definitely does by McBeane. Any WR in that draft was never meant to be holding everything else constant. Edited January 4, 2019 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P
BillnutinHouston Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 14 hours ago, yungmack said: Zay seems to lack "football intelligence." Yet he lucked into 2 TDs in week 17. 1
BakersBills Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 15 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said: We can go back & forth about his contribution to the team & whether a true #2. Here is a neat analysis I found. Some great detail. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/ From what I see, he has not met expectations. Interesting is that his metrics are all 79% or better. I want to see the 5 contested catches he made this year (I don't remember 1)...... Year 3 will be make or break imo. 15 hours ago, freddyjj said: Eric Moulds Yr 1 and 2 Game Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% 1996 23 BUF KR/wr 80 16 5 37 20 279 14.0 2 47 1.3 17.4 54.1% 1997 24 BUF KR/WR 80 16 8 52 29 294 10.1 0 32 1.8 18.4 55.8% Zay Jones Yr 1 and 2 Game Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% 2017 22 BUF WR 11 15 10 74 27 316 11.7 2 33 1.8 21.1 36.5% 2018 23 BUF WR 11 16 15 102 56 652 11.6 7 57 3.5 40.8 54.9% Similar year 2 catch rates. Moulds did have Todd Collins and AVP throwing to him in 1997. And Zay had a motley crew this year. Zay had more targets as Moulds had Andre Reed and Quinn Early as WR1 and WR2. Zay's catch rate in 2018 was better than Early's and Reed's in 1997. and he had 2 more TDs than either of them Horrible comparison moulds got half the targets zay jones on the other hand was targeted alot zay Jones makes catching a football look tough
ctk232 Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 Over the course of the season, it seems like most opinions about Zay are in reference to, or in some regard influenced by, his draft pick and what the FO did to take him. Much in the way people lamented (some still do) about Mahomes or literally any other player we "missed out" on in the draft. If we evaluate Zay's performance in his first two years in comparison to trading up for him in the 2nd round - that would seem to be more a commentary on the FO that made that decision than the actual player himself. By all measure, Zay was the best slot receiver in the draft. He had always played in the slot role and performed highly given the route concepts and corps he developed within. Fast forward to 2017 with an offense QB'd by TT, coordinated by Rico, and in a year where he seemed to have been battling a shoulder injury for most of the season, he's asked to play a role that is nearly all new. He had adjustments to make beyond what his injury and rookie year limited him to, but it's hard to see where people thought he might have WR1 potential or experience. I get that that might have been the intention of the FO, but again it may not - either way, it's more a commentary on the FO that drafted him than it is on Zay. The reason I find most of these reactions as odd; those that say "he hasn't lived up to his WR1 potential" or "was a waste of a pick and trade up given who else was there," I guess is because I personally never expected him to become our next WR1 at any point. His experience, physical traits, and route knowledge weren't going to lend itself to that transition naturally, and he always seemed better suited for a slot/WR2 role. While I get that we haven't exactly had a strong WR corps in the two years he's been with the team, we can't equally put the expectation to fulfill a WR1 hole with a guy not built or potentially not even drafted for the job. All this to say, he's markedly improved from his first year in the league. He's done well in adjusting to a raw, rookie QB with known accuracy issues - and yes, has still had mistakes and issues that he needs to work through. I don't believe he'll ever be a WR1 and feel his game is much better suited to slot route roles. But talk about him being a "bust" or worth offloading is something else entirely. 1
billsredneck1 Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 1:53 PM, C.Biscuit97 said: Separation is different than speed. Jerry Rice ran like a 4.6. JuJu just seems to play faster than Zay. and if they trade Brown, James Washington will be the next good Steelers receiver. Loved him too. They just kill in the draft. Too bad they just have some many d bags. currently ben to ab....future rudolph to washington. they are set for years to come.
FeelingOnYouboty Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 Foster and Jones are good number #2's and #3's. Now if this Duke Williams cat is good. Look out.
Alphadawg7 Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 10:08 AM, Billsfan1972 said: We can go back & forth about his contribution to the team & whether a true #2. Here is a neat analysis I found. Some great detail. https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/zay-jones/ From what I see, he has not met expectations. Interesting is that his metrics are all 79% or better. I want to see the 5 contested catches he made this year (I don't remember 1)...... Year 3 will be make or break imo. Honestly I don't think he is a lock for the roster. Beane and McD have been very vocal about the need to make plays at WR and the need to get better there. The only constant all year is that Zay was a starter. And while he had some moments, overall he too frequently let the team down either with drops or being completely taken out of games by opposing defensive backs. Doesn't mean he can't make significant improvements this summer, but right now, I think his future here is very much in question. Foster has already over took him on the depth chart, so as of right now he is clinging to the #2 WR spot. And as soon as we sign or draft someone to start, Zay will suddenly be competing for the #3 spot at best. And with the signing of Williams, he already has competition before we look at WR in FA/Draft/Trade. Right now, I think Zays chances of being on the roster next year are at best 50/50 and he is going to have to earn a roster spot. Odds that he starts at WR next season are below 5% IMO. I think its pretty safe to say we will add at least 2 more WR's in FA/draft/trade on top of just adding an intriguing prospect in Williams. Come camp, there will be at least 2 starters ahead of him, and likely 1 or 2 other guys all vying for WR3 to WR5. My prediction: Zay doesn't make the final roster next year and is either traded or cut. WR1 - Not currently on roster, will be through FA/Trade/Draft (slight chance someone like Foster or Williams could win this spot, but I think its pretty likely this is someone not currently on the roster). WR2 - Foster (may compete to be WR1, depending no who we bring in). Williams could also push him for this spot potentially. WR3 - I think someone not currently on roster. Could be Foster if someone like Williams moved his way up the depth chart. But I think Foster is the WR2 and this guy is not currently on roster. I think we will sign someone like Humphries or draft a guy to come in and be a slot weapon. If Zay manages to make the final roster, I think this spot is his ceiling going into next year. WR4 - Williams - I like this signing because he has a skill set we didn't have in the WR room this year with his catch radius. So assuming he is past is off field stuff I think he will both make the roster and actually could maybe compete for one of top 3 spots as well. Until we can see what he can do on an NFL field though, I cant project him any higher than WR4. We also need to see if he can get separation on routes without using that running start in the CFL. Zay for me likely lands here if he say beats out Williams and keeps a roster spot. WR5/WR6/ST - I think McKenzie and some other young player we already have or add this offseason will be here, not sure how many WR's they carry come week 1, but I would guess 5 or 6 total. So for me, I think Williams signing may be the end of Zay due to a numbers game here. I don't think for a second that the FO feels Williams is anywhere near enough to add to the WR room. I expect 2 more additions on top of that. So with those 2 additions, Foster, Williams, and McKenzie that doesn't leave a lot of room for Zay unless he makes some impressive leaps forward this offseason. In fact, assuming we bring in two more relevant WR's, I think Zay's ability to make this roster will then rely on one of two things...either making a profound leap forward himself, or seeing someone like Williams flame out and get cut.
Matt_In_NH Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 Zay quietly had 7 TD's.....on this passing offense that is incredible.
FeelingOnYouboty Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 Quote Has strong and natural hands, dropped only six of 164 catchable passes in 2016 Per PFF this was Zay during his college career. He comes to the Bills and suddenly has drop issues. I don't get it lol
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 (edited) Jesus the haters just won't quit For a guy who wasn't supposed to be THE #1 WR Zay had 7 TD's and 652 total yards. IIRC people were saying Zay would be lucky to top 400 total passing yards. Josh Allen threw 10 passing TD's Zay Jones caught 5 of those. 1 from Nate v Houston 1 from Barkley NYJ Edited January 7, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan 2
Logic Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: Honestly I don't think he is a lock for the roster. Beane and McD have been very vocal about the need to make plays at WR and the need to get better there. The only constant all year is that Zay was a starter. And while he had some moments, overall he too frequently let the team down either with drops or being completely taken out of games by opposing defensive backs. Doesn't mean he can't make significant improvements this summer, but right now, I think his future here is very much in question. Foster has already over took him on the depth chart, so as of right now he is clinging to the #2 WR spot. And as soon as we sign or draft someone to start, Zay will suddenly be competing for the #3 spot at best. And with the signing of Williams, he already has competition before we look at WR in FA/Draft/Trade. Right now, I think Zays chances of being on the roster next year are at best 50/50 and he is going to have to earn a roster spot. Odds that he starts at WR next season are below 5% IMO. I think its pretty safe to say we will add at least 2 more WR's in FA/draft/trade on top of just adding an intriguing prospect in Williams. Come camp, there will be at least 2 starters ahead of him, and likely 1 or 2 other guys all vying for WR3 to WR5. My prediction: Zay doesn't make the final roster next year and is either traded or cut. WR1 - Not currently on roster, will be through FA/Trade/Draft (slight chance someone like Foster or Williams could win this spot, but I think its pretty likely this is someone not currently on the roster). WR2 - Foster (may compete to be WR1, depending no who we bring in). Williams could also push him for this spot potentially. WR3 - I think someone not currently on roster. Could be Foster if someone like Williams moved his way up the depth chart. But I think Foster is the WR2 and this guy is not currently on roster. I think we will sign someone like Humphries or draft a guy to come in and be a slot weapon. If Zay manages to make the final roster, I think this spot is his ceiling going into next year. WR4 - Williams - I like this signing because he has a skill set we didn't have in the WR room this year with his catch radius. So assuming he is past is off field stuff I think he will both make the roster and actually could maybe compete for one of top 3 spots as well. Until we can see what he can do on an NFL field though, I cant project him any higher than WR4. We also need to see if he can get separation on routes without using that running start in the CFL. Zay for me likely lands here if he say beats out Williams and keeps a roster spot. WR5/WR6/ST - I think McKenzie and some other young player we already have or add this offseason will be here, not sure how many WR's they carry come week 1, but I would guess 5 or 6 total. So for me, I think Williams signing may be the end of Zay due to a numbers game here. I don't think for a second that the FO feels Williams is anywhere near enough to add to the WR room. I expect 2 more additions on top of that. So with those 2 additions, Foster, Williams, and McKenzie that doesn't leave a lot of room for Zay unless he makes some impressive leaps forward this offseason. In fact, assuming we bring in two more relevant WR's, I think Zay's ability to make this roster will then rely on one of two things...either making a profound leap forward himself, or seeing someone like Williams flame out and get cut. I respect your take, and I respectfully disagree with it. Zay Jones will be a Buffalo Bill in 2019. He's cheap labor that's trending up. Beane and McDermott mentioned him in the year-end press conference as a guy who looks to be coming into his own. I don't think he'll ever be the dominant #1 wideout that Bills fans seem to want him to be. I DO think, though, that he can have a long and productive career as a possession receiver out of the slot and a security blanket for his quarterback. Now if only the Bills would wise up and start actually PLAYING him in the slot more often. 1
billsfan_34 Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/3/2019 at 1:11 PM, teef said: at this early in their career, i'm just hoping for progress in the first few years when it comes to wrs. while not consistent, zay was much better this year than last, so i'll take it...for now. Eric Moulds years 1 and 2 blek- year 3 he was an animal!!!
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Logic said: I respect your take, and I respectfully disagree with it.Zay Jones will be a Buffalo Bill in 2019. He's cheap labor that's trending up. > Beane and McDermott mentioned him in the year-end press conference as a guy who looks to be coming into his own. I don't think he'll ever be the dominant #1 wideout that Bills fans seem to want him to be. I DO think, though, that he can have a long and productive career as a possession receiver out of the slot and a security blanket for his quarterback. Now if only the Bills would wise up and start actually PLAYING him in the slot more often. this (the latter has to be proven)
JoshAllenHasBigHands Posted January 7, 2019 Posted January 7, 2019 On 1/4/2019 at 4:57 AM, BakersBills said: Horrible comparison moulds got half the targets zay jones on the other hand was targeted alot zay Jones makes catching a football look tough Re-read the chart. They had an identical catch percentage. 11 minutes ago, Logic said: I respect your take, and I respectfully disagree with it. Zay Jones will be a Buffalo Bill in 2019. He's cheap labor that's trending up. Beane and McDermott mentioned him in the year-end press conference as a guy who looks to be coming into his own. I don't think he'll ever be the dominant #1 wideout that Bills fans seem to want him to be. I DO think, though, that he can have a long and productive career as a possession receiver out of the slot and a security blanket for his quarterback. Now if only the Bills would wise up and start actually PLAYING him in the slot more often. This is an important, driving factor for Beane. And it is something that is almost NEVER considered on this board.
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