FearLess Price Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 This is a great post breh. I bet they work him on this in otas and throught tc. Hopefully he linksup wit Palmer again to work on his mechanics. This kid can really be great if he gets the fundamentals down. We know he can hit homeruns, he jus needs to consistently hit the doubles and triples to move th chains.
WideNine Posted January 3, 2019 Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, matter2003 said: Allen struggles pretty much at every distance on throws to the right except on balls over 20 yards in the air. He also struggles badly on throws over 20 yards to the middle of the field and throws to left side of the field between 10-20 yards. He actually excels on throws from 0-10 yards over the middle. Hopefully they put in the time to correct this issue on throws to the right at short distances... This is what had a lot of us baffled regarding his quick slants and swing passes. Money to the left, and often off to the right. That just screams footwork/platform mechanics on his quick sets and short throws to the right...wonder if there is any correlation with passes that follow play-action or a single drop step. Not tearing every Josh throw apart, but I can get into these types of analytics. They can be meaningful. Edited January 4, 2019 by WideNine
Trogdor Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Yav said: Never said it was a witch hunt. And if you do a little research the Bills are at the top of the drops in the NFL. At week 8 Cleveland was #1 in the NFL with a 7% drop rate followed by AZ & Buffalo who were in the 6% range. And Washing has the lowest drop rate at less than 1%. Now you you can say it’s been beaten but it’s not been analyzed at all. Sure all teams have drops but would it be fair to compare his numbers to Washings QBs? No because you now have a margin of error that your not accounting for. This is is why stats are miss leading. Anyone can mine data to support their claim, the key is to not only mine the data but to adjust based on variables and present the data on a level playing field. Lets say we take 1 game, and in that game Allen throws 1 pass deep center to KB and it hits him in the hands and he drops it. Now Alllen has a 0% over the middle for passes 20+ yards. Yet Brady throws the same pass, a little high but Gronk jumps up makes the catch and a TD. Brady ends with 100%. Does that stat show who threw a more accurate pass? No. A more catchable ball? No. But it shows Allen isn’t accurate. That's one location. Do you really think that the Bills drop so many more passes on the right side of the field as to create that big of a discrepancy? I mean that seems like making excuses to me. He clearly struggles with short passes and intermediate throws to the right. He is almost 30 percentage points off the average in some of those areas. It's a neat tool for what he needs to work on. Watching the games would provide the same diagnosis though. 1
Big Turk Posted January 4, 2019 Author Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Trogdor said: That's one location. Do you really think that the Bills drop so many more passes on the right side of the field as to create that big of a discrepancy? I mean that seems like making excuses to me. He clearly struggles with short passes and intermediate throws to the right. He is almost 30 percentage points off the average in some of those areas. It's a neat tool for what he needs to work on. Watching the games would provide the same diagnosis though. as others point out its likely a mechanical thing, which is why i asked if it was inherently more difficult to throw the ball to the right for a right handed QB. Seems there is less room for error with footwork and mechanics on throws to that side than to the left or middle. Edited January 4, 2019 by matter2003 1
WideNine Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 30 minutes ago, matter2003 said: as others point out its likely a mechanical thing, which is why i asked if it was inherently more difficult to throw the ball to the right for a right handed QB. Seems there is less room for error with footwork and mechanics on throws to that side than to the left or middle. I believe if you are right-handed you should be set so you are looking along the line of your left shoulder when throwing ( so I have read), so it could be just a tweak in those mechanics. I think Josh got better as the year progressed, but consistency is going to require a lot of discipline especially since he has so much arm strength that he can throw from almost any awkward platform and often gets the ball there bad mechanics be damned.
kota Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 Does this chart take out his throw aways most of them he threw out on the right side? If not this doesn't mean much. 2
eanyills Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 17 minutes ago, kota said: Does this chart take out his throw aways most of them he threw out on the right side? If not this doesn't mean much. Considering that the league average is calculated via the mean using the same metrics for all QB’s, it doesn’t matter. It tells you there’s a weakness there.
bills_18 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 7 minutes ago, eanyills said: Considering that the league average is calculated via the mean using the same metrics for all QB’s, it doesn’t matter. It tells you there’s a weakness there. I think it does matter...I will bet he scrambles to the right(whether pressure is real or not) more than any QB. His completion % on these scrambles is extremely poor with a very high number of throwaways. If you watch him in college he did the same thing. It would be interesting to see his pocket versus scramble to right.
Yav Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 5 hours ago, Trogdor said: That's one location. Do you really think that the Bills drop so many more passes on the right side of the field as to create that big of a discrepancy? I mean that seems like making excuses to me. He clearly struggles with short passes and intermediate throws to the right. He is almost 30 percentage points off the average in some of those areas. It's a neat tool for what he needs to work on. Watching the games would provide the same diagnosis though. I’m not saying he doesn’t need to improve and I’m not saying his numbers should be or are significantly higher but the Bills WR did in fact drop a significant number of passes on top of that you have poor line play that caused some throwaways all factors that impact his percentages. I would rather see an adjusted accurate data graph. Or better yet, how about they just add the drops on the graphic. sure the kid needs to improve but if you look at his first game and compare that to his last game and you will see his progress and that is all that matters. He did in fact improve.
MJS Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 Which receivers lined up on the right side most? Plus, no week 17. I'd like to see it with his best game added in. 5 hours ago, kota said: Does this chart take out his throw aways most of them he threw out on the right side? If not this doesn't mean much. I do think most QB's throw it away to the right, though, if they are right handed. But what would they count a throwaway as? Short? Middle? Long? Surely they have to remove those throws. 1
row_33 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 16 hours ago, Tenhigh said: anyone know if they discount drops ? There were only 13 total heading into the 14th game. ?
MDH Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 59 minutes ago, row_33 said: There were only 13 total heading into the 14th game. ? Yeah, the statisticians had it in for the Bills and purposely used a different criteria for them than they did the rest of the league. All in the name of making Josh Allen's numbers look worse than they really are. ?
Nanker Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 I’d like to see the receivers each have a chart like that to see what their reception % was in each of those target zones. As as others have said, most of his throwaways seem to be when he’s running toward the right sideline and he’s about to 1. run out of bounds, or 2. get clobbered by the D’s pursuit. They probably use the distance to the first down for the area “targeted” on those tosses.
Virgil Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 Thanks for posting. I could have swore the deep ball to Foster for a TD against the Jags was caught between the hash marks, but I guess not
hemma Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) The image looks like they are splitting the field into 3 equal columns (17.77 yards per), instead of inside or outside of the hash. One way or the other, throws to the right aren't good. I suspect he instinctively kept his shoulders and footwork 'misaligned' because he was afraid of backside pursuit and getting sacked/stripped. Better OL + footwork drills should help. Edited January 4, 2019 by hemma bad math alert
Troll Toll Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 12 hours ago, eanyills said: Considering that the league average is calculated via the mean using the same metrics for all QB’s, it doesn’t matter. It tells you there’s a weakness there. I completely disagree. By other metrics that have been posted on TBD, our receivers are creating the least amount of separation in the NFL. That would in turn suggest that Josh is forced to throw the ball away at the highest rate in the NFL AND gives the defense the best opportunity to successfully defend his passes since they are closer to the receiver when the ball is released than they are against all other teams. This is negatively skewing his completion % considerably in comparison to the average of the rest of the NFL. Get him some receivers that can separate and catch and his completion percentage will dramatically improve. For a while I thought O-Line upgrades would help the most, but as this season played out I’ve come to see that the receiver situation is our biggest handicap. Josh’s pocket awareness and mobility mitigates much of the line weakness, we need open receivers.
BillsVet Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 15 hours ago, Yav said: Never said it was a witch hunt. And if you do a little research the Bills are at the top of the drops in the NFL. At week 8 Cleveland was #1 in the NFL with a 7% drop rate followed by AZ & Buffalo who were in the 6% range. And Washing has the lowest drop rate at less than 1%. Where are you getting the receiver's drop data?
BringBackFlutie Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 14 hours ago, matter2003 said: as others point out its likely a mechanical thing, which is why i asked if it was inherently more difficult to throw the ball to the right for a right handed QB. Seems there is less room for error with footwork and mechanics on throws to that side than to the left or middle. I'd also like to point out that on his best throw of the year, which was a long cross to Foster, where he hit him on the right hash, it was all arm- he did not reset his feet to the right, even with time. So we have clear examples of throws he's attempted to his right side, while pointed the other way.
Ronin Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 He's horrific in the Red Zone, worse than all of his draft peers.
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 59 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said: He's horrific in the Red Zone, worse than all of his draft peers. How bad can he be if he's not even bottom 5?
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