The Significance of the Allen Misfire/Clay Drop in Week 13

[Midwest1981]

However you want to characterize it and however you want to assign blame... I just realized how significance of that play.  And not in the way you thought of it before.  Sure, to cap off that thrilling win would've been very exciting.  Still, just like Robert Royal's inability to inexplicably get a second foot inbounds at home against the Titans in week 16 in 2006 meant Buffalo was drafting 12th (Marshawn Lynch) at 7-9 instead of drafting 20th at 8-8 (based on strength of schedule)... the last play of our week 13 Dolphins' games means TWO things:  1) we're drafting 9th instead of 16th (yes, seven spots that play accounted for) and 2) our third-place finish means we get the Titans & Broncos instead of the Colts & Chargers.  Had we beaten & swept Miami, we'd have finished in second-place at 7-9 while they'd have been in third at 6-10.

 

Sometimes it's all how you look at things.  In turns out, that wasn't the worst outcome in the world.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Midwest1981

[rayray808]

texting this to my friend now

[Midwest1981]

And that's not saying anything of how that play places all of our remaining draft picks higher, too (go from a late 40's 2nd to early 40's 2nd, etc.).  Anyway, just something I found interesting and notable.

[Sig1Hunter]

"You play to win the game.  Hello?!"

 

                         -Squirmin Herman Edwards

[teef]

wow.  i always prefer the wins, but that's an interesting breakdown.

[GRHater69]

Sure, to cap off that thrilling win would've been very exciting

 

Some selective amnesia here. We tend to look back on this as the "last play of the game". It wasn't. If Clay scored there, the Dolphins would have had almost a full minute to get at least a field goal to tie the score assuming the Bills didn't go for two or miss the PAT. It wasn't a sure thing that the pass to Clay, if caught, would have won the game. Yes a completion there would have been a great play and hi-lite reel material for a few years, but there was more time to play in that game.

 

As a side note, remember what a flag fest it was that day with a lot of calls against the Bills. I have no doubt that Sean Hoculi and his crew could have influenced the rest of that game.

 

 

 

 

[gobills1212]

I believe you, but who thinks of this?! And why at this very moment? Not to mention the handful of other things that could have turned games upsidedown. Things avg out and whats meant to be will be. The Bills were destined to draft #9 this year. Twas their fate

Edited January 4, 2019 by gobills1212

[Midwest1981]

12 minutes ago, GRHater69 said:

Sure, to cap off that thrilling win would've been very exciting

 

Some selective amnesia here. We tend to look back on this as the "last play of the game". It wasn't. If Clay scored there, the Dolphins would have had almost a full minute to get at least a field goal to tie the score assuming the Bills didn't go for two or miss the PAT. It wasn't a sure thing that the pass to Clay, if caught, would have won the game. Yes a completion there would have been a great play and hi-lite reel material for a few years, but there was more time to play in that game.

 

As a side note, remember what a flag fest it was that day with a lot of calls against the Bills. I have no doubt that Sean Hoculi and his crew could have influenced the rest of that game.

 

 

 

 

You are correct- a TD & XP would've put us up 3 (24-21) with 53 seconds left.  Buffalo would've been favored to win the game overall, by any analytical measure (Miami probably at best kicks a FG to tie it to send it to overtime).  But good catch/correction.  I still find the "positives" of this loss noteworthy...

Edited January 3, 2019 by Midwest1981

[BuffaloBill]

Silver lining

[Midwest1981]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBill said:

Silver lining

Absolutely...

[buffalobillswin]

If only the Titans wr hadn't dropped that TD in week 5, we'd be picking even higher. Darn, missed opportunity. 

[WhoTom]

So you're saying we should re-sign Clay?

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

53 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

So you're saying we should re-sign Clay?

 

He's already signed for 2019. Has a high cap number 9M but 4.5M in dead money if they cut him.  He's still the best blocking TE on the team and second best TE receiving threat. Croom is more H-back than TE. 

My hunch is he retires due to his knees.

I would be ok with keeping him. His contract will not preclude them from signing any FA they want and he will be completely off the books after next year. At least wait until after the draft and FA to see if they were able to find another complete TE. 

Probably the worst contract Whaley ever did but the worst of it is over.

[reddogblitz]

Just win baby!

 

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, Midwest1981 said:

However you want to characterize it and however you want to assign blame... I just realized how significance of that play.  And not in the way you thought of it before.  Sure, to cap off that thrilling win would've been very exciting.  Still, just like Robert Royal's inability to inexplicably get a second foot inbounds at home against the Titans in week 16 in 2006 meant Buffalo was drafting 12th (Marshawn Lynch) at 7-9 instead of drafting 20th at 8-8 (based on strength of schedule)... the last play of our week 13 Dolphins' games means TWO things:  1) we're drafting 9th instead of 16th (yes, seven spots that play accounted for) and 2) our third-place finish means we get the Titans & Broncos instead of the Colts & Chargers.  Had we beaten & swept Miami, we'd have finished in second-place at 7-9 while they'd have been in third at 6-10.

 

Sometimes it's all how you look at things.  In turns out, that wasn't the worst outcome in the world.

Some of us were already aware that losses were better than wins after about Week 3.

 

It's always better to draft higher than lower and there is no glory to be had in winning meaningless football games in a lost season.

 

 

[BisonMan]

On the other hand, a spectacular play there be Allen that wins the game would have a very positive effect on the perception of the Bills and Allen. Prospective FA WRs might have a different view of Allen when considering a landing spot. That pass/drop might have cost us a true #1 WR next year.

 

Alternatively, Allen might have been more likely to play “hero ball” in later games if that play won the game and we’d be drafting 5th in round 1. 

 

Who knows...only the Shadow knows!

 

EdW

[LSHMEAB]

The truly bad WIN was the Lions game in which we essentially won on a missed FG. Does the team really grow from a game like that? I know people don't like to think of losing as winning, but mathematically, it would have been better for the team to lose that game. Even if you don't mind picking at 9 because of position, etc., we'd still have more draft capital and could have moved down and acquired picks. As the OP pointed out, it could have been worse so it's best to just accept their record for what it is. If's and but's are candy and nuts.

[IronyAbounds]

Then again, if the Bills pull out a win in the first Fins game they likely don't crap out against the Jets and head into the Pats game with some serious momentum. They still likely lose that game, but finishing at 8-8 with a head of steam heading into '19 might entice more and better FAs that more than compensate for dropping some slots in the draft. Teams that tank generally are ***** franchises that start losing as a habit. I'd rather have seen the Bills go 6-1 down the stretch, but ymmv.

[TPS]

While I'm okay with the outcome this year, I hope it's the last time in the next dozen years that we talk about how losing a game put us in better draft position....

[TigerJ]

4 hours ago, Sig1Hunter said:

"You play to win the game.  Hello?!"

 

                         -Squirmin Herman Edwards

Absolutely, but having lost, in whatever form it took, the position of the Bills in the draft and schedule wise, is remarkably better on the back of the results of one game.