Report: Bills working on extension for Jordan Phillips

[Beast]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Lets be real though...he came in midseason not knowing the system or playbook on a team that already had Star and Kyle along with rookie Horrible Harry.  Wasnt like he was suddenly going to start of either Kyle or Star, especially not having a full offseason and regular season with the team and playbook.  

 

So still playing one third of the snaps under those conditions is actually impressive.  He quickly carved his way into the rotation as a midseason arrival.  Why do people expect he was going to play more than that under those circumstances?  This is where once again "stats" do not tell the whole story without the context.  

 

And I dont say that to advocate for say $10m a year, I say that specifically about your criticism of the 1/3 snaps without applying the context to that part of the information.  

 

It wasn’t meant as a criticism. I simply stated a fact. I didn’t say Phillips only played a third of the snaps because.......

 

It was a direct reply to someone saying pay the guy 10 million a year.

 

 

[Watkins90]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Then if they (or you) have a nomination for Bills worst UFA signing.........step up and illustrate who and why.........or shut up.

 

Just saying "I disagree and you are stupid" does not a point make.........and the venom indicates a polar opposite opinion........hence my response.

 

The Bills actually don't have a history of signing UFA's that have totally flamed out and cost them massive amounts of money/cap room.

 

Their $10M per year deals are actually pretty few in UFA............so Star is fairly unique...........the only recent comparison of a majorly disappointing deal that the Bills were hamstrung by is Charles Clay and for all his faults Clay has been a good blocker and one of the more productive receiving TE's in team history.........so an invisible $10M DT is definitely worse.

 

 Star was a lump last year..........the people calling it a bad signing were basing that on his modest play in Carolina..........but then his drop-off in his first season from his production in the same defense in Carolina was PRECIPITOUS.

Rob Johnson and Derrick Dockery were much worse free agent signings. 

 

It is way too soon to say Star was a bad or good signing. You really can't do that until he plays out his contract or is cut. 

Edited February 14, 2019 by Watkins90

[K-9]

Not for nothing, but we acquired Rob Johnson in a trade.

[John from Riverside]

46 minutes ago, Binghamton Beast said:

 

It wasn’t meant as a criticism. I simply stated a fact. I didn’t say Phillips only played a third of the snaps because.......

 

It was a direct reply to someone saying pay the guy 10 million a year.

 

 

I think if they offered him 10 million a year he would already be signed.....

 

That is probably what is taking so long on this.....Beane is being judicious

[BADOLBILZ]

37 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Not for nothing, but we acquired Rob Johnson in a trade.

 

 

I'm just happy that 50% of his examples were UFA's.

 

I keep my expectations for an advanced argument low.

 

It's OK to accept Star as a franchise-historically significant UFA disappointment while also understanding that there are worse players in the NFL.  

 

 It's simply a production/$ equation.   

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

14 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think if they offered him 10 million a year he would already be signed.....

 

That is probably what is taking so long on this.....Beane is being judicious

 

...longer than a Congressional hearing....Schumer must be his agent......

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Then if they (or you) have a nomination for Bills worst UFA signing.........step up and illustrate who and why.........or shut up.

 

Just saying "I disagree and you are stupid" does not a point make.........and the venom indicates a polar opposite opinion........hence my response.

 

The Bills actually don't have a history of signing UFA's that have totally flamed out and cost them massive amounts of money/cap room.

 

Their $10M per year deals are actually pretty few in UFA............so Star is fairly unique...........the only recent comparison of a majorly disappointing deal that the Bills were hamstrung by is Charles Clay and for all his faults Clay has been a good blocker and one of the more productive receiving TE's in team history.........so an invisible $10M DT is definitely worse.

 

 Star was a lump last year..........the people calling it a bad signing were basing that on his modest play in Carolina..........but then his drop-off in his first season from his production in the same defense in Carolina was PRECIPITOUS.

 

Mark Anderson was one of the worse DL FA signings in Bills history.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Mark Anderson was one of the worse DL FA signings in Bills history.

 

 

Yup that was a fail.

 

The enormity of the Star fail is that half of his contract ($25M) is guaranteed.

 

The Panthers got a player of similar talent in Dontari Poe to replace Lotulelei.......but for a MUCH smaller guarantee.

 

He sucked too but the Bills are married to Star for another season or two where the Panthers can move on from Poe pretty easily because only $10M of his deal was guaranteed.

 

Beane got hosed hard on that deal.

 

He hasn't given the impression that he's a particularly good judge of market value to this point.  

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

20 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Mark Anderson was one of the worse DL FA signings in Bills history.

 

...Jesus CB, that's a GREAT call.......Loni was better.................Marv rushing to get Kawica Mitchell at 12:01AM with not a damn GM behind him in line was another beauty....

Edited February 14, 2019 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yup that was a fail.

 

The enormity of the Star fail is that half of his contract ($25M) is guaranteed.

 

The Panthers got a player of similar talent in Dontari Poe to replace Lotulelei.......but for a MUCH smaller guarantee.

 

He sucked too but the Bills are married to Star for another season or two where the Panthers can move on from Poe pretty easily because only $10M of his deal was guaranteed.

 

Beane got hosed hard on that deal.

 

He hasn't given the impression that he's a particularly good judge of market value to this point.  

 

 

I'll give you (and I have said this before) that Beane overpaid some for Star IMO,  but I don't think it reflects badly on Beane's competence.

Star's play this coming year will tell more about this move. 

[freddyjj]

1 hour ago, Watkins90 said:

Rob Johnson and Derrick Dockery were much worse free agent signings. 

Just for the record, and admittedly not a proud moment, OBD traded their #1 pick in 1998 draft to JAGS for Johnson (pick became Fred Taylor, RB).

 

They wish they just signed him as a FA!

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

11 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'll give you (and I have said this before) that Beane overpaid some for Star IMO,  but I don't think it reflects badly on Beane's competence.

Star's play this coming year will tell more about this move. 

 

 

...certainly agree CB with "overpaid some" being the key......from previous affiliations, he knew exactly what type of player he was getting and was comfortable paying a bit more...no harm no foul IMO...........

[3rdand12]

3 hours ago, K-9 said:

This pretty much matches the eye test, imo. Edmunds struggled mightily at times to fill, mostly because he was hesitant to commit to what he was seeing. And when he wasn’t being hesitant, teams were taking advantage of his over pursuit as well. Not surprising, especially earlier on in the season when he was sipping from a fire hose. Better LB play next season will greatly improve the perception of our DL’s run stopping ability. 

this is where context comes into play. Star and Edmunds are directly linked. if they both do their job ? The A B gaps should be a no go zone.

over simplified by me but true enough

38 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'll give you (and I have said this before) that Beane overpaid some for Star IMO,  but I don't think it reflects badly on Beane's competence.

Star's play this coming year will tell more about this move. 

It needed to be done.

 The contract is in question , but if that is what it took to bring him here? so be it.

eye test told me he was slow out of the gate  but steadily improved.

 

[K-9]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'm just happy that 50% of his examples were UFA's.

 

I keep my expectations for an advanced argument low.

 

It's OK to accept Star as a franchise-historically significant UFA disappointment while also understanding that there are worse players in the NFL.  

 

 It's simply a production/$ equation.   

That is the bottom line, regardless. Sometimes you get less production for the buck, sometimes more, and sometimes players give a little of each at various times. We're getting great value out of some players and less value out of others. The story of every team. 

[BillsSB2020]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

That is the bottom line, regardless. Sometimes you get less production for the buck, sometimes more, and sometimes players give a little of each at various times. We're getting great value out of some players and less value out of others. The story of every team. 

I concur with this. I believe Star is solid in his role, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't think a younger fella (H Phillips) could come very close to matching his production. We've got some great value deals(both safeties), lots of guys on rookie deals. This doesn't appear to be a terrific value deal, but those are the breaks.

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I'll give you (and I have said this before) that Beane overpaid some for Star IMO,  but I don't think it reflects badly on Beane's competence.

Star's play this coming year will tell more about this move. 

 

I don't like contemplating that Beane might not be a good judge of UFA either,  but:

 

Star Lotulelei.......awful value

Trent Murphy........limped thru season

Vontae Davis.........quit

AJ McCarron..........Beane even admitted that misjudgment....which lead to Peterman starting the opener and Allen forced into lineup

Chris Ivory...........far below league average production

Russ Bodine........sadly...easily their best value

Marshall Newhouse.....impressively terrible in preseason

Jeremy Kerley...........starting slot WR?........pffft

 

0 for 8

 

Keep in mind that McD and Whaley hauled in bargain stars in Hyde and Poyer.........and the year before Whaley signed two pro bargain pro bowlers in Lorax and Zach Brown.

 

Classes like Beane put together last year are abnormally bad even by Billsy standards.

 

 

[K-9]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I don't like contemplating that Beane might not be a good judge of UFA either,  but:

 

Star Lotulelei.......awful value

Trent Murphy........limped thru season

Vontae Davis.........quit

AJ McCarron..........Beane even admitted that misjudgment....which lead to Peterman starting the opener and Allen forced into lineup

Chris Ivory...........far below league average production

Russ Bodine........sadly...easily their best value

Marshall Newhouse.....impressively terrible in preseason

Jeremy Kerley...........starting slot WR?........pffft

 

0 for 8

 

Keep in mind that McD and Whaley hauled in bargain stars in Hyde and Poyer.........and the year before Whaley signed two pro bargain pro bowlers in Lorax and Zach Brown.

 

Classes like Beane put together last year are abnormally bad even by Billsy standards.

 

 

Not an impressive list to be sure, but the jury is still out on Star and Murphy even though their value was below expectation. I'm not sure I'm gonna be too disappointed in Ivory who, like all or our backs, had to toil behind one of the worst lines in the league, yet still managed to produce some big plays in some big moments during the year as a role player. 

 

Do you include UDFAs in the analysis?

 

What GM in the league is the best at judging UFAs?

Edited February 15, 2019 by K-9

[Saint Doug]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I don't like contemplating that Beane might not be a good judge of UFA either,  but:

 

Star Lotulelei.......awful value

Trent Murphy........limped thru season

Vontae Davis.........quit

AJ McCarron..........Beane even admitted that misjudgment....which lead to Peterman starting the opener and Allen forced into lineup

Chris Ivory...........far below league average production

Russ Bodine........sadly...easily their best value

Marshall Newhouse.....impressively terrible in preseason

Jeremy Kerley...........starting slot WR?........pffft

 

0 for 8

 

Keep in mind that McD and Whaley hauled in bargain stars in Hyde and Poyer.........and the year before Whaley signed two pro bargain pro bowlers in Lorax and Zach Brown.

 

Classes like Beane put together last year are abnormally bad even by Billsy standards.

 

 

Don’t forget Anquan Boldin. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

42 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I don't like contemplating that Beane might not be a good judge of UFA either,  but:

 

Star Lotulelei.......awful value

Trent Murphy........limped thru season

Vontae Davis.........quit

AJ McCarron..........Beane even admitted that misjudgment....which lead to Peterman starting the opener and Allen forced into lineup

Chris Ivory...........far below league average production

Russ Bodine........sadly...easily their best value

Marshall Newhouse.....impressively terrible in preseason

Jeremy Kerley...........starting slot WR?........pffft

 

0 for 8

 

Keep in mind that McD and Whaley hauled in bargain stars in Hyde and Poyer.........and the year before Whaley signed two pro bargain pro bowlers in Lorax and Zach Brown.

 

Classes like Beane put together last year are abnormally bad even by Billsy standards.

 

 

Boy does that look bad even to a Beane fanboy like me. Had forgotten that Hyde and Poyer were pre- Beane signings. Star was a bit overpaid but was not too bad a signing. Jury is still out on Murphy.

 

And Beane’s trades have brought in Gaines (great) Matthews (bad known injury) and Benjamin (bad known injury plus slow).

 

Beane did do decently in the draft - so it is not all bad. Also he has been good at getting value for players he traded away ( like Tyrod). Also he was handicapped by the cap situation. But as you point out he does have something to prove in FA evaluation. Here is hoping he homers this off season.

[BADOLBILZ]

59 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Not an impressive list to be sure, but the jury is still out on Star and Murphy even though their value was below expectation. I'm not sure I'm gonna be too disappointed in Ivory who, like all or our backs, had to toil behind one of the worst lines in the league, yet still managed to produce some big plays in some big moments during the year as a role player. 

 

Do you include UDFAs in the analysis?

 

What GM in the league is the best at judging UFAs?

 

 

I'm hopeful about Murphy getting better too.......those long arms and narrow frame are perfect for pass rushing and making plays on the football...........Gunner thinks he's going to be released outright though and I won't be surprised.    He was limping around all year it just might not be something that will get better.

 

The UDFA's are obviously part of the draft process(pro personnel/college personnel)............but Beane had a great UDFA class........and you need to do well there........there are something like 560 UDFA's in the NFL and only around 160 players from each individual drafting round so you really can't afford to get nothing from UDFA. 

 

I'm not going to make a list of GM's by their success with UFA's until Beane actually has a "hit"     I can tell you where a .000 batting average ranks him though.

31 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Boy does that look bad even to a Beane fanboy like me. Had forgotten that Hyde and Poyer were pre- Beane signings. Star was a bit overpaid but was not too bad a signing. Jury is still out on Murphy.

 

And Beane’s trades have brought in Gaines (great) Matthews (bad known injury) and Benjamin (bad known injury plus slow).

 

Beane did do decently in the draft - so it is not all bad. Also he has been good at getting value for players he traded away ( like Tyrod). Also he was handicapped by the cap situation. But as you point out he does have something to prove in FA evaluation. Here is hoping he homers this off season.

 

 

I like the draft........was a big fan of Allen and Edmunds picks.