DaBillsFanSince1973 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 32 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Bit of space between the above and " a 7 time pro bowler, 3x all pro, on his way to the HOF ", not? I'm not Gunner but I honestly don't know how to put odds on it. I guess if you put me up against a wall, I would say "bust" still more likely than 2019 MVP? Don't shoot me, here's my reasoning....One can be a HOF QB, a very very good QB or even a capable NFL starter and those would all be favorable outcomes for Allen, but fall way short of league MVP. But overall, something like 50% of QB drafted in the high 1st round don't become even capable NFL starters, and while Allen has flashed all the potential in the world, he's still got a ways to go to reach the status of "16 week capable NFL starter".
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, Stank_Nasty said: If I recall you basically said it all but sealed beane and McDermott getting canned in a year or 2. So i’d day “reduction” may be an understatement. Haha. I may be mistaken. Maybe that wasn’t you. But I’m fairly certain. My instant reaction was - I think they will eventually end up fired for that decision - though I didn't put a timeframe on it. I thought his bust % was high and if you bust with a franchise QB generally in 80% of NFL cities you don't get a second go around. But that was my instant in the seconds afterwards reaction. My considered reaction the morning after the draft is easily searchable on this forum - Search Gunner's Draft Day 1 debrief. But I have never pretended I liked the pick. I didn't. I just don't let that influence everything I think about Josh going forwards. Whereas some people do let the fact I was against drafting him colour everything else I say about him going forward. All I have said in this tread is it is right to keep a level head and not get carried away.
Stank_Nasty Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: My instant reaction was - I think they will eventually end up fired for that decision - though I didn't put a timeframe on it. I thought his bust % was high and if you bust with a franchise QB generally in 80% of NFL cities you don't get a second go around. But that was my instant in the seconds afterwards reaction. My considered reaction the morning after the draft is easily searchable on this forum - Search Gunner's Draft Day 1 debrief. But I have never pretended I liked the pick. I didn't. I just don't let that influence everything I think about Josh going forwards. Whereas some people do let the fact I was against drafting him colour everything else I say about him going forward. All I have said in this tread is it is right to keep a level head and not get carried away. you've been reasonable.... I'm just busting balls.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: I suppose it depends what we mean by bust. I mean EJ, out of the league inside 5 years. If we mean "fail" to be a franchise Quarterback then obviously the percentage should be higher as you and bandit rightly state. Like, would you call Blake Bortles a bust? He has started 75 career games, 59.3%, 103-75 TD to INT..... if we are calling that bust then yea - it is much higher than 5%. Oooooh, Bortles is a tough one. He's right on the edge. Based on (lotsa number crunching stuff, we all know I'm a stats geek), I think there's a floor for winning QB play at around 59% completion, TD/INT ratio 1.5, and 6.5 YPA. There's probably also a floor for average YPG between 200-220. It should be noted also these are hindsight numbers. There are a number of today's "YES!" QB who would have been "NO!" by these metrics after 3 years. This is still kind of controversial here........Folks look at that and say "way too low" on different parameters (eg TD/INT 1.5), but I think if you have a QB who delivers on all 3 consistently, the team can go to playoffs more often than not and win playoff games (maybe not championships) with other pieces around (solid coaching, minimal penalties, top-10 D). Bortles is teetering right at the edge of that in his 5th year - 235 ypg, 59.4 % completions, 6.7 YPA - check. TD/INT 1.4 - fail. In his last 2 seasons, his completion percentage and YPA have both gone up, and the number of INTs he's thrown has gone down - it's not impossible he will continue to improve. But right now, he's a "no" to me, and still a "no" if you throw out his first 2 years.
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Oooooh, Bortles is a tough one. He's right on the edge. Based on (lotsa number crunching stuff, we all know I'm a stats geek), I think there's a floor for winning QB play at around 59% completion, TD/INT ratio 1.5, and 6.5 YPA. There's probably also a floor for average YPG between 200-220. It should be noted also these are hindsight numbers. There are a number of today's "YES!" QB who would have been "NO!" by these metrics after 3 years. This is still kind of controversial here........Folks look at that and say "way too low" on different parameters (eg TD/INT 1.5), but I think if you have a QB who delivers on all 3 consistently, the team can go to playoffs more often than not and win playoff games (maybe not championships) with other pieces around (solid coaching, minimal penalties, top-10 D). Bortles is teetering right at the edge of that in his 5th year - 235 ypg, 59.4 % completions, 6.7 YPA - check. TD/INT 1.4 - fail. In his last 2 seasons, his completion percentage and YPA have both gone up, and the number of INTs he's thrown has gone down - it's not impossible he will continue to improve. But right now, he's a "no" to me, and still a "no" if you throw out his first 2 years. Took his team to the brink of a Superbowl too..... but then equally was benched this year..... I think everyone would say he is not a true franchise QB but whether he is a bust is a toughie.
Dr. Who Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Took his team to the brink of a Superbowl too..... but then equally was benched this year..... I think everyone would say he is not a true franchise QB but whether he is a bust is a toughie. Is "bust" criteria objective level of play or is it also dictated by when a fella was drafted? I surmise most folks would judge Bortles a decent backup level of player. If you drafted him in the mid-rounds, that would make him a moderate success. If you drafted him third overall, that feels like a bust. That doesn't mean Bortles would have to have become a top five qb in order to avoid being a bust. I think Andy Dalton level average does that, though even that indicates a miss in terms of where he was drafted.
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Who said: Is "bust" criteria objective level of play or is it also dictated by when a fella was drafted? I surmise most folks would judge Bortles a decent backup level of player. If you drafted him in the mid-rounds, that would make him a moderate success. If you drafted him third overall, that feels like a bust. That doesn't mean Bortles would have to have become a top five qb in order to avoid being a bust. I think Andy Dalton level average does that, though even that indicates a miss in terms of where he was drafted. See I am not sure I agree. If a guy starts 75 games, takes you to the brink of the Superbowl, has Bortles esque numbers.... I think it is disappointing for a 3rd overall pick... but not sure I'd call it a bust.
Dr. Who Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 1 minute ago, GunnerBill said: See I am not sure I agree. If a guy starts 75 games, takes you to the brink of the Superbowl, has Bortles esque numbers.... I think it is disappointing for a 3rd overall pick... but not sure I'd call it a bust. There's definitely enough ambiguity to make it a call that could be argued either way. Let's just put it this way, if Allen turns out to be Blake Bortles (as some of his critics today assert,) I will be very disappointed.
GunnerBill Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said: There's definitely enough ambiguity to make it a call that could be argued either way. Let's just put it this way, if Allen turns out to be Blake Bortles (as some of his critics today assert,) I will be very disappointed. Indeed. And yet he will be our most successful drafted QB in how long......? Since Kelly?
Dr. Who Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 Just now, GunnerBill said: Indeed. And yet he will be our most successful drafted QB in how long......? Since Kelly? Yep. It's been a long wait. I didn't even realize I was young back then and thought for sure we'd have a fair number of playoff appearances and hopefully a shot or two at the Super Bowl in the future. Now I'm looking at the hour glass and praying Allen is the answer.
Big Turk Posted January 4, 2019 Author Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) 53 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: I think people get confused easily when evaluating QBs; it's all about the "might" factor. You draft a QB early if you think there's a chance he might become a franchise QB. With Allen, I put his likelihood-to-bust at about 50%, which was 2nd-highest among my 1st round QBs (I had Jackson the highest at ~55% and Mayfield/Rosen the lowest at 25%). I've seen more progression this season than I expected, so I've dropped my bust potential on Allen down to 25%. I'd say it looks like this: QB Draft Day Bust Potential Current Bust Potential Mayfield 25% 20% Rosen 25% 25% Darnold 40% 25% Allen 50% 25% Jackson 55% 40% Mayfield current should be more like 5%...that dude is a baller. Jackson is basically a glorified RB who gets to throw the ball at times on easy play action passes or easy defined throws. Dude has attempted 170 passes and ran 133 times...seriously? Allen has a lot of this as well but he was asked to do a lot more. Allen has taken over the game at times in ways Jackson hasn't...maybe in ways none of the others have to be honest. What he did in the 2nd half of that last game was eye popping. With Jackson its hand the ball off or he will run and then the 3rd option is pass. Basically its an updated version of the Tim Tebow offense. Still know next to nothing about Jackson as a QB as he hasnt been asked to do jack sh!t other than be safe. Also what he is doing is not a viable offense for 10 years, its a gimmick that was meant to salvage the season for Baltimore. Edited January 4, 2019 by matter2003
GoBills808 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Don't shoot me, here's my reasoning....One can be a HOF QB, a very very good QB or even a capable NFL starter and those would all be favorable outcomes for Allen, but fall way short of league MVP. But overall, something like 50% of QB drafted in the high 1st round don't become even capable NFL starters, and while Allen has flashed all the potential in the world, he's still got a ways to go to reach the status of "16 week capable NFL starter". Not going to shoot you down! I was asking because I'm genuinely curious to get people's takes on him. I can see the reasoning either way- the historical odds are weighted against him becoming anything like an MVP candidate and DO point to busting as the more likely outcome. My personal take is if you look at his trajectory over the course of the season it's not unrealistic to argue that he's more likely to succeed than fail at this point but I'm speaking also as a fan...I have a vested interest in seeing him become a top QB. There's absolutely room for questioning where he's at right now and whether he'll eventually pan out. He's far from a finished product, although I'd argue he's a lot closer to capable NFL starter than you suggest. And that's a reasonable point of contention imo. What I find objectionable is the idea that optimism (even if somewhat unrealistic) about his future somehow needs to be countered with an equivalent measure of negativity, or 'realism', ESPECIALLY from folks who had no problem labelling him a bust before he stepped on the field. Considering we're all fans of the same team, that point of view seems unnecessarily argumentative.
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 2 minutes ago, matter2003 said: Mayfield current should be more like 5%...that dude is a baller. Jackson is basically a glorified RB who gets to throw the ball at times on easy play action passes or easy defined throws. Dude has attempted 170 passes and ran 133 times...seriously? Allen has a lot of this as well but he was asked to do a lot more. Allen has taken over the game at times in ways Jackson hasn't...maybe in ways none of the others have to be honest. What he did in the 2nd half of that last game was eye popping. With Jackson its hand the ball off or he will run and then the 3rd option is pass. Basically its an updated version of the Tim Tebow offense. Know next to nothing about Jackson still as a QB as he hasnt been asked to do jack sh!t other than be safe. Also what he is doing is not a viable offense for 10 years, its a gimmick that was meant to salvage the season for Baltimore. You could have said the same thing about RG3 as a rookie--he was a baller. I'm not anointing anyone after playing 14 games against a last-place schedule when DCs don't have an entire offseason to game plan against him.
Dr. Who Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Not going to shoot you down! I was asking because I'm genuinely curious to get people's takes on him. I can see the reasoning either way- the historical odds are weighted against him becoming anything like an MVP candidate and DO point to busting as the more likely outcome. My personal take is if you look at his trajectory over the course of the season it's not unrealistic to argue that he's more likely to succeed than fail at this point but I'm speaking also as a fan...I have a vested interest in seeing him become a top QB. There's absolutely room for questioning where he's at right now and whether he'll eventually pan out. He's far from a finished product, although I'd argue he's a lot closer to capable NFL starter than you suggest. And that's a reasonable point of contention imo. What I find objectionable is the idea that optimism (even if somewhat unrealistic) about his future somehow needs to be countered with an equivalent measure of negativity, or 'realism', ESPECIALLY from folks who had no problem labelling him a bust before he stepped on the field. Considering we're all fans of the same team, that point of view seems unnecessarily argumentative. Yeah, this is how I feel. Maybe some folks can be more objective about it.
Green Lightning Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 On 1/2/2019 at 9:23 AM, Flip Johnson said: I am convinced that there are some people on this board who would have watched Dan Marino in 1983 and said, "we need to see more." Not really. I hated the pick. Since then I'm somewhat optimistic, not on his accuracy which is still suspect in my mind. But it in his ability to read defenses and process. I think that's where he made a good gain from his college days. His running ability is off the charts and a surprise, but it's not something I want to rely on long term for his career. Sure is nice to have though.That said, I still need to see more. I like to see him hit slants, short passes to the right and to stop throwing behind receivers. The bread-and-butter passes that get you 1st downs. I'd like to see him be able to do that and as well as go long when he sees the opportunity. But if you can't make 1st downs with your arm in this league you're not going to be a winning quarterback. Pre injury, I was shaking my head every time he played. But post injury he impressed me with some credible growth.
Big Turk Posted January 4, 2019 Author Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) 50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said: You could have said the same thing about RG3 as a rookie--he was a baller. I'm not anointing anyone after playing 14 games against a last-place schedule when DCs don't have an entire offseason to game plan against him. True, but the difference is I don't think Mayfield is going to be asking coaches to remove his bad plays in film study so he doesn't look bad in front of the entire team. Mayfield is about putting in that work...Griffin was about reading his press clippings. Is it any wonder Griffin ended up where he did with his prima donna attitude, fragile ego and work habits? You want to know why Robert Griffin ultimately was a bust? All you need to do is read this article: Blames everyone and everything for his failures except himself(and Dan Snyder). When you can't take responsibility for your actions or inactions and your part in all of this, you have no business being a QB, the leader of the offense and the team by default. Nobody respects that, least of all his teammates. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/nov/5/robert-griffin-iii-blames-everyone-for-fall-in-was/ Edited January 4, 2019 by matter2003
thebandit27 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, matter2003 said: True, but the difference is I don't think Mayfield is going to be asking coaches to remove his bad plays in film study so he doesn't look bad in front of the entire team. Mayfield is about putting in that work...Griffin was about reading his press clippings. Is it any wonder Griffin ended up where he did with his prima donna attitude, fragile ego and work habits? Not at all a surprise...again though, my point is that there's going to be things about Mayfield's game--both on and off the field--that will be fleshed out over his first off-season.
TheElectricCompany Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 (edited) His passing stats are kind of where I thought they'd be (please spare me the "He's a rookie!" shtick), but his running ability is incredible. I didn't expect that at all! The accuracy / precision / whatever you want call them issues are real. I've been critical about JAs stats and even called him "Teflon Josh" because of the plethora of excuses that he's had for years. That nickname is overly harsh, but let's be real - his completion and YPA numbers suck. Those MUST improve for us to build a consistent high scoring offense. Getting more offensive playmakers (can we find a Christian McCaffery type???) and a better line will help, but it's primarily on JA has to make that leap. Either way, 5 TDs in a game don't lie. I can't think of bust QBs who've put up 5 TDs in a game, can you? The guy is a dual threat playmaker. I'll enjoy my visit to the crow buffet in the offseason and look forward to seeing his progression in September 2019. Edited January 4, 2019 by TheElectricCompany 1
BuffaloHokie13 Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 2 hours ago, Dr. Who said: There's definitely enough ambiguity to make it a call that could be argued either way. Let's just put it this way, if Allen turns out to be Blake Bortles (as some of his critics today assert,) I will be very disappointed. In Bortles' second year (2015) his passing stats were 355/606 (58.6%) for 4,428 yards(7.31 YPA), 35 TDs, & 18 INTs. He also ran 52 times for 310 yards and 2 TDs. If those are Josh Allen's stats in year 2 I think everyone here is pretty excited. 1
CodeMonkey Posted January 4, 2019 Posted January 4, 2019 Josh was at the Sabres game last night. The only Bill they showed (that I saw, at least). That's a positive thing, even if he was in a box
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