Josh Allen---has your opinion changed on him since draft night?

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Allen has said he was 6'3" and 180 lbs coming out of high school and he kept getting stronger and faster.  So his physical gifts weren't as obvious during recruiting.

 

I think you've tagged some of the points Trent Dilfer misses when he opines about how Allen is "breaking his heart" and he "shouldn't be playing", analogizing from his own career.  Dilfer was raised in a small town, true, but a coastal community just south of Santa Cruz in the '80s.   Very different culture than central CA and Firebaugh.  Dilfer was recruited to Fresno, where he played 3 years, declaring early.  I'm not saying he didn't work hard, but it was pretty much a smooth path for him.  Star in high school, recruited, star in college, highly-touted draft prospect.  Allen had to scrap to get a JUCO gig, then scrap to get a shot at Wyoming, then faced a lot of skepticism and criticism coming out.  Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I think Allen's head is in a bit of a different place because of his relatively hard-knocks background.

 

 

Well, that, and he was apparently a bit of a scrawny beanpole

 

I think his build was probably impacted by not being dedicated to just football and the weight room because he played multiple sports.

 

And yeah, some of the stuff Dilfer says seems off the mark and almost like he is building in some defense of his own career not living up to expectations.  

[LSHMEAB]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Allen has said he was 6'3" and 180 lbs coming out of high school and he kept getting stronger and faster.  So his physical gifts weren't as obvious during recruiting.

 

I think you've tagged some of the points Trent Dilfer misses when he opines about how Allen is "breaking his heart" and he "shouldn't be playing", analogizing from his own career.  Dilfer was raised in a small town, true, but a coastal community just south of Santa Cruz in the '80s.   Very different culture than central CA and Firebaugh.  Dilfer was recruited to Fresno, where he played 3 years, declaring early.  I'm not saying he didn't work hard, but it was pretty much a smooth path for him.  Star in high school, recruited, star in college, highly-touted draft prospect.  Allen had to scrap to get a JUCO gig, then scrap to get a shot at Wyoming, then faced a lot of skepticism and criticism coming out.  Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but I think Allen's head is in a bit of a different place because of his relatively hard-knocks background.

 

 

Well, that, and he was apparently a bit of a scrawny beanpole

Was not aware of his size at the age of 17 I presume. I still think it's odd that someone with that arm and that mobility could fly under the radar, but it's certainly a component of the explanation. Agreed with the points about Dilfer. We think of him as a game manager because of the way his career played out, but he was the business at one point in time; a highly regarded prospect so coveted that he came out a year early and was taken at 6. There's no doubt in my mind that Allen will do everything humanly possible to get better as a player, and a large part of that could very well be attributed to his unusual path to the NFL.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Not one NFL talent evaluator ever pegged Thurmal as a potential bust.  He was a Heisman candidate in his senior year (finishing seventh in voting) and was a first team All-American in 1985 and 1987.  He left OSU as the school's all-time leading rusher and his number 34 was one of only three jerseys retired at Oklahoma State.

 

Was he embarassed that he didn't go higher in the draft?   No question.   Was he a reach or projection.    No way...

 

My point wasn't to compare their relative draft standings it was to call out that they both may have been motivated by similar feelings of being disrespected  Thomas was very public about his desire to make EVERY team that skipped him in the 1st round pay for their lack of vision.  Allen hasn't been so forthright but the story about sending all those tapes out only to hear back from 2 programs had to leave a scar.  Allen also had to be aware of what was being said about him by a majority of the "experts" after he was picked by Buffalo. 

Edited January 3, 2019 by CincyBillsFan

[CodeMonkey]

32 minutes ago, Success said:

I would go as far to say that if there was a re-draft and we had the top pick, I’d want the Bills to pick him over the other guys.

 

Mayfield is great and I love his game and attitude, but Allen just seems like more of a Buffalo kind of guy.  Probably because he reminds me a bit of Kelly.  They used to say that Kelly had a linebackers toughness and mentality, and I see that in Josh.  Especially whe he tried to strip the ball on that pick 6.

Wow, that's a interesting and bold take on the situation.

[ILBillsfan]

optimistic on the pick draft night. 

 

I have been more than pleased this kid has an aura about him, you can feel his love of the game and see him growing.  I have to calm myself since it has been so long since I have watched games and rooted like I did this year.  He is polarizing in a good way and as I have read there are some Kelly traits I see in him.

 

Very excited to see the improvements form year one to year two.

[PlayoffsPlease]

12 hours ago, I am the egg man said:

Not me, it was clear Marino was the real deal in the 9 games he started in his rookie year. His rookie passing stats blow away Josh Allen's.  

Maybe Don Shula had better coaching in place than Allen had this year too. 

[Zerovoltz]

13 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

 

So has your opinion changed on Josh Allen from the draft to now? 

 

 

A little bit.

 

I thought Allen would struggle with completion PCT....and he still has.  I, like many here, underestimated his athletic ability.  I have been impressed with his ability to run...didn't see anwhere near the production on the ground that he produced.  

 

I thought he would be a bust...(and I still generally think that his passing efficiency needs to be much better. ..I didn't say comp %....passing efficiency.) BUT....Allen impressed me enough to believe he COULD take a step or two if given some better talent around him.  He's certainly exciting, and I am looking forward to seeing if this offseason and and what should be an improved roster, produces results that show more improvement.  

 

So, yes...Allen has impressed me.  I'm rooting for him.  Looking forward to seeing what happens next.  

[Buffalo Barbarian]

1 hour ago, BillsFan692 said:

Josh Allen is a stud the future is bright!

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

19 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Was not aware of his size at the age of 17 I presume. I still think it's odd that someone with that arm and that mobility could fly under the radar, but it's certainly a component of the explanation. Agreed with the points about Dilfer. We think of him as a game manager because of the way his career played out, but he was the business at one point in time; a highly regarded prospect so coveted that he came out a year early and was taken at 6. There's no doubt in my mind that Allen will do everything humanly possible to get better as a player, and a large part of that could very well be attributed to his unusual path to the NFL.

 

The big thing that kept Allen from being noticed is that he didn't attend the QB camps during high school.  Those camps teach young QB's a lot about what they need to do to improve their throwing mechanics & footwork and they give college programs a chance at evaluating a kid over several days of intense competition against other HS QB's. 

 

I have no doubt that even though he was a skinny senior a number of programs would have seen his his arm talent & athleticism and offered him a scholarship.  As an aside these college programs are very sophisticated in measuring high school aged kids and estimating their final height & weight by their late teens/early twenties.   They would have been aware that he was going to be a big guy and would have planned on red shirting him. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, technobot said:

I've always been the first to comment to my friends "a running quarterback will eventually get himself killed" and that is still my worry for Allen, but man... the kid is a pure playmaker.  Watching him run is hilarious:  this giant white kid who isn't even sneaky fast, he's just fast, full stop.  I remember being frustrated watching EJ Manuel because I had been told EJ could run and be a playmaker yet I never saw him do anything like Allen has.  His ability to scramble, extend, improvise and fling is reminiscent of Roethlisberger, except he's not getting killed out there... yet and hopefully ever. 

 

I understand why someone would say that, but its also not really very accurate and a bit of mythology if I am being honest.  For instance, you could take out a piece of paper and make a list of all the QB's that were dangerous with their legs at the top.  Now make two columns...on one side put all the QB's who had relatively long and respectable or better careers (some even HOF careers).  On the second side, list all the guys where injuries while running may have cut their career short or threw it off track to never really recover.  I can tell you one list will be a lot longer than the other, and its not the one that bolded statement above would suggest.

 

RG3 is the most cited example, but where are the other cautionary tales really?  How many good or young QB's had their careers derailed from an injury while running?  Not many.

 

Meanwhile, guys like Steve Young (the best scrambling QB all time IMO), Cunningham, McNabb, McNair, Brunell, Big Ben, Vick, Newton, Wilson, and even Kap all have had the ability to run be a dangerous part of their game.  Some were scrambling QB's (look to pass first and use legs when they see the opening to hurt the D or the pass isnt there) and some were running QB's (Legs were a bigger part of their game like Vick).  But overall, most their careers were healthy and injuries didn't play much of a role until their later years, if at all.  And most injuries came from hits inside the pocket not from plays they ran.  Some had off field stuff take them down (Vick and Kap).  

 

So for me, I just don't see the evidence of QB's getting killed on the run.  I see way more serious injuries taking big shots in the pocket, blind side shots, getting their leg rolled up on sacks or collapsing pockets, etc.  And especially today where QB's get more protection than ever from big hits, there are a lot of ways to get out and run and avoid taking too much damage between sliding, getting out of bounds, and defenders just also not wanting to get a flag.  

 

NOW...that being said, its also on the QB to know how to protect himself out there on the run, and one thing with Josh was earlier in the season he was too competitive and took to many unnecessary shots.  But I think we saw a big improvement in that area with him and he certainly took less big hits on the run after coming back from injury.  If he can keep being smart, then running can remain a big part of his game moving forward and I won't be too fearful about it.  

[HappyDays]

I think his weaknesses are exactly what I thought they would be. Inconsistent ball placement, some trouble with touch passes and short throws, doesn't always read the field correctly, plays hero ball a little too much. Although the ball placement isn't as bad as I thought it would be and his touch passes have improved somewhat.

 

What changed in my mind is that his strengths are more off the charts than I could have imagined. Not just the arm strength, he obviously lives up to the hype on that. A lot of it his overall attitude about the game. He's confident but not arrogant. He loves to win but failure doesn't stop him. He's a leader but he doesn't steal the spotlight. The hero ball mindset is a strength as much it is a weakness. He is always looking to make a play and sometimes you need that from your QB. I trust that he will learn to rein it in.

 

And holy cow his mobility and toughness in the pocket are something else. That's the real shock. No one was talking about Josh Allen as a better runner than Lamar Jackson but statistically he has been. I know he shrugged off sacks at Wyoming but I didn't think it would translate this well in the NFL. The narrative on him pre-draft was all about his arm strength and his accuracy, and everything else kind of fell to the wayside.

 

He's using his strengths as a crutch while he's developing his weaknesses, and that's fine because his strengths are at an elite level. So his floor is significantly higher than I would have ever thought, and so is his ceiling for that matter. I would still say he is the riskiest pick of the top 4 QBs because he has more to develop. But I wouldn't trade him for any of them right now because if he puts it all together he will end up being one of the greatest QBs of all time. I'll take that bet.

Edited January 3, 2019 by HappyDays

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, CowboyBill said:

Not a single thing has surprised me this year. That’s because I saw it all during the last few years. Just watching the highlights does not tell you who JA is. You have to watch him through the whole game and week to week. He has grown a lot this year, but his very first win in Laramie was in an overtime game where he had to scramble on like 4th down to score a touchdown. It was a completely busted play where he should have been sacked/tackled multiple times. 

 

Its been hard hard being a Wyoming fan and a JA fan. Listening to all of the people that hated him and thought he was a bust. No one really knew him. He is a different kind of player. You just have to throw the stats out know he is going to do everything in his power to win and get better. 

 

Reading all of these posts just gives me chills  because everything I have know about him for so many years is starting to become evident to so many new people. Get ready for the ride because it’s going to be fun!

 

I genuinely love that a bunch of Wyoming fans keep coming here to tell us how good he will be. I do put stock in that kind of thing. FSU fans hated the EJ Manuel pick, hell his own coach did... Everyone that has followed Allen for a few years loves him. It's easy to see why when he's on his game.

[Estro]

Yes, I despised the selection the night of the draft.  Of all the QB's he's the one I definitely wanted the Bills to pass on.

 

He exceeded my expectations, for sure.

 

I'm still significantly worried about his accuracy.  To me, accuracy is far and away the most important trait in becoming a great QB.....and it's a trait I'm not sure can be learned or coached.  Some of his throws this year, especially the shorter/easier ones had me just as concerned as I was draft night.  It needs to get a lot better if he's ever going to become great.  With that said,  his pocket presence, his confidence, his ability to make some big boy stick throws downfield all impressed me and his running on scrambles blew my mind.

[Norcalbillsfan]

I wasn't huge on Allen but I did not want Rosen at all so the Allen pick was bitter sweet. Now I love the excitement he brings to the game, he's fun as hell to watch play and I believe he can take a team to the post season if he has the weapons and protection, but do I believe the bills will do that.... I'm skeptical.

[GreggTX]

Better runner

Worse passer

[BruceVilanch]

I heard about him the year before he declared and started watching his highlight tapes and fell in love with his arm. He sold me on his Pro Day when he was dropping bombs down field. I didn't expect that at this young stage of his career he could take over games. The kid has an infectious love of the game and his guy's seem to love battling for him on the filed, the energy of this team is night and day when he is playing. I watched the Highlight tape that the bills released a couple days ago of all his best plays from the season and there are so many "wow" moments, he makes throws that only a handful of QB's can make. I think we can be perennial contenders in the next couple years, getting to 9-7 next year would mean we are on track to me. Go Bills, I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday season! Only 245 more days until opening weekend.

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I understand why someone would say that, but its also not really very accurate and a bit of mythology if I am being honest.  For instance, you could take out a piece of paper and make a list of all the QB's that were dangerous with their legs at the top.  Now make two columns...on one side put all the QB's who had relatively long and respectable or better careers (some even HOF careers).  On the second side, list all the guys where injuries while running may have cut their career short or threw it off track to never really recover.  I can tell you one list will be a lot longer than the other, and its not the one that bolded statement above would suggest.

 

RG3 is the most cited example, but where are the other cautionary tales really?  How many good or young QB's had their careers derailed from an injury while running?  Not many.

 

Meanwhile, guys like Steve Young (the best scrambling QB all time IMO), Cunningham, McNabb, McNair, Brunell, Big Ben, Vick, Newton, Wilson, and even Kap all have had the ability to run be a dangerous part of their game.  Some were scrambling QB's (look to pass first and use legs when they see the opening to hurt the D or the pass isnt there) and some were running QB's (Legs were a bigger part of their game like Vick).  But overall, most their careers were healthy and injuries didn't play much of a role until their later years, if at all.  And most injuries came from hits inside the pocket not from plays they ran.  Some had off field stuff take them down (Vick and Kap).  

 

So for me, I just don't see the evidence of QB's getting killed on the run.  I see way more serious injuries taking big shots in the pocket, blind side shots, getting their leg rolled up on sacks or collapsing pockets, etc.  And especially today where QB's get more protection than ever from big hits, there are a lot of ways to get out and run and avoid taking too much damage between sliding, getting out of bounds, and defenders just also not wanting to get a flag.  

 

NOW...that being said, its also on the QB to know how to protect himself out there on the run, and one thing with Josh was earlier in the season he was too competitive and took to many unnecessary shots.  But I think we saw a big improvement in that area with him and he certainly took less big hits on the run after coming back from injury.  If he can keep being smart, then running can remain a big part of his game moving forward and I won't be too fearful about it.  

I agree with you, I think the biggest difference with JA is that I don't mind him dictating the contact downfield especially when he can see it coming, if he gets to the second level which he usually does he is taking on guys who are his size or smaller, I have no issue with him taking on a safety for extra yards, I would worry about him getting rolled up by one of his OL or getting smashed by a DL who outweighs him by 60lbs. 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I think his weaknesses are exactly what I thought they would be. Inconsistent ball placement, some trouble with touch passes and short throws, doesn't always read the field correctly, plays hero ball a little too much. Although the ball placement isn't as bad as I thought it would be and his touch passes have improved somewhat.

 

What changed in my mind is that his strengths are more off the charts than I could have imagined. Not just the arm strength, he obviously lives up to the hype on that. A lot of it his overall attitude about the game. He's confident but not arrogant. He loves to win but failure doesn't stop him. He's a leader but he doesn't steal the spotlight. The hero ball mindset is a strength as much it is a weakness. He is always looking to make a play and sometimes you need that from your QB. I trust that he will learn to rein it in.

 

And holy cow his mobility and toughness in the pocket are something else. That's the real shock. No one was talking about Josh Allen as a better runner than Lamar Jackson but statistically he has been. I know he shrugged off sacks at Wyoming but I didn't think it would translate this well in the NFL. The narrative on him pre-draft was all about his arm strength and his accuracy, and everything else kind of fell to the wayside.

 

He's using his strengths as a crutch while he's developing his weaknesses, and that's fine because his strengths are at an elite level. So his floor is significantly higher than I would have ever thought, and so is his ceiling for that matter. I would still say he is the riskiest pick of the top 4 QBs because he has more to develop. But I wouldn't trade him for any of them right now because if he puts it all together he will end up being one of the greatest QBs of all time. I'll take that bet.

 

Think this is what I was saying but you were more erudite HappyDays...... because his running is such a weapon his floor is significantly higher than you would normally expect of someone who does have, and still has, some issues with ball placement on occasion that he is trying to work through. I always thought his ceiling was sky high, my worry was that his floor was extremely low - and because his athleticism has been way more or a factor than almost anyone imagined - that floor is significantly raised. You can be a serviceable NFL QB passing for 180-200 yards a game and running for 40-60 more.... Bills fans know that better than anyone after the Tyrod years. So suddenly you are looking at a guy whose floor is Tyrod but has a sky high ceiling. That changes the dynamic significantly.

[longtimebillsfan]

On 1/2/2019 at 7:02 PM, ILBillsfan said:

optimistic on the pick draft night. 

 

I have been more than pleased this kid has an aura about him, you can feel his love of the game and see him growing.  I have to calm myself since it has been so long since I have watched games and rooted like I did this year.  He is polarizing in a good way and as I have read there are some Kelly traits I see in him.

 

Very excited to see the improvements form year one to year two.

You showed insight that many of us lacked on draft day.  I was one of those that were expecting to hear "Rosen" after hearing Josh.  I was holding my head and saying 'nooooooooooo!

 

I could not have been more wrong.  Allen has not only off the charts physical skills, he has the intangibles to be a leader of men and a winner in the NFL.  He has already shown the ability to make other players around him better. 

 

I am extremely optimistic about the future of this franchise with Allen leading our team back to the glory days!!!

Edited January 4, 2019 by longtimebillsfan

[Magox]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think this is what I was saying but you were more erudite HappyDays...... because his running is such a weapon his floor is significantly higher than you would normally expect of someone who does have, and still has, some issues with ball placement on occasion that he is trying to work through. I always thought his ceiling was sky high, my worry was that his floor was extremely low - and because his athleticism has been way more or a factor than almost anyone imagined - that floor is significantly raised. You can be a serviceable NFL QB passing for 180-200 yards a game and running for 40-60 more.... Bills fans know that better than anyone after the Tyrod years. So suddenly you are looking at a guy whose floor is Tyrod but has a sky high ceiling. That changes the dynamic significantly.

 

Not to mention that by the second half of the season he had not only shown a willingness but was much more effective at pushing the ball down the field and over the middle than Tyrod ever was able to do.  Yes, I remember the year where Tyrod was connecting on his bombs with Watkins and Goodwin, but aside from those bombs he seemed much more content checking it down.

 

Another area that JA is already ahead of Tyrod is his pocket presence. JA struggled pre injury with his pocket presence and looked flustered and was getting sacked a bunch but post injury he was very decisive.  He would either stand in the pocket tall and wait for a play to develop or he would immediately escape it and look to make a play.  How many times did we see Tyrod take these killer sacks that killed drives?  

 

Another area that JA is ahead of Tyrod and it sometimes works to his detriment but he throws past the sticks much more often than Tyrod.  How refreshing is that to see?

 

Tyrod's main strength was that he didn't turn the ball over and I don't think JA will ever protect the ball as well as Tyrod but of course that tentativeness of Tyrod also led to a meh sort of offensive output.  I just don't think that mindset is part of JA's DNA.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Not to mention that by the second half of the season he had not only shown a willingness but was much more effective at pushing the ball down the field and over the middle than Tyrod ever was able to do.  Yes, I remember the year where Tyrod was connecting on his bombs with Watkins and Goodwin, but aside from those bombs he seemed much more content checking it down.

 

Another area that JA is already ahead of Tyrod is his pocket presence. JA struggled pre injury with his pocket presence and looked flustered and was getting sacked a bunch but post injury he was very decisive.  He would either stand in the pocket tall and wait for a play to develop or he would immediately escape it and look to make a play.  How many times did we see Tyrod take these killer sacks that killed drives?  

 

Another area that JA is ahead of Tyrod and it sometimes works to his detriment but he throws past the sticks much more often than Tyrod.  How refreshing is that to see?

 

Tyrod's main strength was that he didn't turn the ball over and I don't think JA will ever protect the ball as well as Tyrod but of course that tentativeness of Tyrod also led to a meh sort of offensive output.  I just don't think that mindset is part of JA's DNA.

 

Just to be clear I wasn't trying to compare Josh's game to Tyrod. Just his output. Josh averaged about 188 yards per game passing (took it on 11 games think that is fair... started 11 didn't finish 1 but played half of one he didn't start) and about 58 rushing. That is right in the Tyrod production bracket even if there were plenty of differences about how he got there. That level of production can be serviceable.... Tyrod proved it. You need pieces around him and he'd have to turn it over less but if that is his floor it is a serviceable floor. That was my only point. Pre-draft I was definitely lower on what Allen's floor was. The exciting thing is that his ceiling is so much higher. The Tyrod problem wasn't low floor.... his floor was pretty high.... it was a low ceiling.