Bills Should Be Judicious in Free Agency

[gordong]

based on History....  He should sign nothing but backups...  HE SUCKS at signing F/A...

[Logic]

I agree with the OP. Luckily, so does Brandon Beane, based on his comments at the end-of-year presser.

For fans that want him to go out and spend like a drunken sailor at port, I think there will be disappointment. He's never going to be a Doug Whaley when it comes to free agency. Nor should he be. Like he said, that would put the Bills right back in the same place they were before he arrived. But I do think the Bills will add some quality players.

Think about this: In their cap-constrained 2017 and 2018 offseasons, the Bills still added Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Trent Murphy, Star Lotulelei, Chris Ivory, Patrick DiMarco, and Stephen Hauschka. The first four guys helped make the Bills the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL in 2018. The two offensive guys are only role players, yes, but they have contributed as role players. The last guy has won a few games for the Bills singlehandedly. And these were their acquisitions when they had almost no cap space. So I DO expect to see some quality pieces added in free agency...it just won't be the marquee name, instant-transformation guys that many want. Beane will instead use his money to lock up guys like Dawkins, Zay, Milano, White, etc.

This will be the most exciting and interesting Bills offseason in quite some time.

 

2 minutes ago, gordong said:

based on History....  He should sign nothing but backups...  HE SUCKS at signing F/A...

That's weird, I seem to recall the Bills having the 2nd ranked defense in the entire NFL in 2018. Star taking on double team blocks all year absolutely contributed to that. Murphy, though he struggled with injury, also helped the defense. He was arguably the second best DE on the Bills roster.

And even though it was under Whaley's watch officially, McDermott was "buying the groceries" when the team signed Poyer and Hyde. All they've done is become one of the top five best starting safety duos in the NFL.

Yes, he's had some misses. He's also been incredibly constrained by the Bills' poor cap situation and status as an undesirable destination. Let's see what he's able to do with a bunch of cap space before we say he "sucks" at signing free agents, eh?

[ProcessTruster]

my sense is they will mostly spend on extending guys they  drafted and like on their own roster, Milano, Tre White, Foster, Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Lawson

[BillsVet]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

I agree with the OP. Luckily, so does Brandon Beane, based on his comments at the end-of-year presser.

For fans that want him to go out and spend like a drunken sailor at port, I think there will be disappointment. He's never going to be a Doug Whaley when it comes to free agency. Nor should he be. Like he said, that would put the Bills right back in the same place they were before he arrived. But I do think the Bills will add some quality players.

Think about this: In their cap-constrained 2017 and 2018 offseasons, the Bills still added Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Trent Murphy, Star Lotulelei, Chris Ivory, Patrick DiMarco, and Stephen Hauschka. The first four guys helped make the Bills the 2nd ranked defense in the NFL in 2018. The two offensive guys are only role players, yes, but they have contributed as role players. The last guy has won a few games for the Bills singlehandedly. And these were their acquisitions when they had almost no cap space. So I DO expect to see some quality pieces added in free agency...it just won't be the marquee name, instant-transformation guys that many want. Beane will instead use his money to lock up guys like Dawkins, Zay, Milano, White, etc.

This will be the most exciting and interesting Bills offseason in quite some time.

 

That's weird, I seem to recall the Bills having the 2nd ranked defense in the entire NFL in 2018. Star taking on double team blocks all year absolutely contributed to that. Murphy, though he struggled with injury, also helped the defense. He was arguably the second best DE on the Bills roster.

And even though it was under Whaley's watch officially, McDermott was "buying the groceries" when the team signed Poyer and Hyde. All they've done is become one of the top five best starting safety duos in the NFL.

Yes, he's had some misses. He's also been incredibly constrained by the Bills' poor cap situation and status as an undesirable destination. Let's see what he's able to do with a bunch of cap space before we say he "sucks" at signing free agents, eh?

 

With a screen name like "Logic" I'd expect some logic to a post like this.  There isn't much.  The biggest contract Whaley handed out went to Dareus, not a UFA.  And of course there was McCoy's extension when he'd been traded for. Same for Cordy Glenn and Jerry Hughes.  Fact is, Whaley re-signed his own (questionable) guys, some of whom were cut loose by McBeane.  

 

As for the cap-constrained additions, Ivory did next to nothing this year, DiMarco didn't see the field much, and Haushka, as excellent as he is, did/does not win games on his own.  He makes some kicks, but it's a team game and the team got in his position for him.  Hyde and Poyer have been very good at times. You've left out the trades for Benjamin (not good), did not mention Murphy was frequently injured, or that Vontae Davis exited stage left at halftime of one game.  Their pro personnel decision making has been a lot of hit and miss. 

 

I would agree that this will indeed be the most exciting and interesting Bills off-season in quite some time, well, since last off-season that is.  

 

As for this narrative preached by so many about Buffalo having the second ranked defense, well, how much did that count for? They went 6-10 and were blown out 5 times this season.  When they needed to stop the run, for example in the second NE game, they couldn't.  Not all of that is on the defense, given the time of possession, but they were not good that day. 

 

 

 

Buffalo will need to spend this cap money somehow given the CBA requirements.  At present, there aren't many solid options available, especially on offense. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I want them to spend the money in FA on fixing the lines. I know it’s not sexy but there are no WRs or RBs in FA that I would even bother with. Use the money we have to fix the trenches. Then in the draft go nothing but skill position players. We are nowhere near physical enough and I don’t want rookies on the line in front of Allen. I want proven vets that understand the NFL game and that will come in and fix the run game immediately.

 

I'd like to see the Bills sign of the one top three FA interior lineman available, maybe the center Paradis. Then I'd try to sign another good lineman, maybe one that is over 30 that you can sign for a shorter contract, 2 to 3 years.  My thinking is this guy is a short term move and in the 2020 draft you use a high pick on his replacement.  For 2019 you now have Dawkins, Teller, two FA signings and would use a fairly high pick this year on one other lineman with the plan to start him in Sept.

 

How high I think it depends on how likely the Bills are to move Dawkins to another position.  If that is true, then I'd more like to see them draft a LT in the 1st round  (Q Nelson excluded, you typically don't need to use 1st round picks on interior lineman)  If not moving Dawkins then maybe a 2nd or a 3rd rounder on a lineman.

 

Also like to see them sign two WR, again one real good one, and another decent one, and also use a higher draft pick on a WR too.

 

I'd resign Hughes, for McCoy based on his output think I'd offer to extend him this year for 2 to 3 years at a fairly substantial reduced incentive based contract.  If he declines, then time to move on as don't think he's worth his present contract based on his age.  McD and Beane both said they want McCoy back, but they didn't specify at what cost.  I'd also use draft picks on their replacements for a year or two down the road.

[machine gun kelly]

They are not going to overspend, and will keep reserves to resign people in 2020, and continue this path for several years.

[BillsVet]

5 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

my sense is they will mostly spend on extending guys they  drafted and like on their own roster, Milano, Tre White, Foster, Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Lawson

 

Milano, White, Foster, T. Johnson and Jones aren't eligible this off-season for contract extensions.  Lawson isn't their "own guy" either. Poyer is signed through 2020 and Hyde through 2021. 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Actually Stars contract is on par.

 

With what?

 

 

[CaptnCoke11]

1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Actually Stars contract is on par.

I didn’t know the going rate for a bad DT was 10 million... That’s interesting 

[GETTOTHE50]

Plz get glowinski and paradis. A new whole oline would be great 

[chris heff]

Do you think they should sign Jordan Phillips?

[Aussie Joe]

It will be fun to bump this thread in a couple of months as it doesn’t matter who Beane signs there will be plenty of people saying he spent too much money..

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

6 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Do you think they should sign Jordan Phillips?

 

I think you let him test the market to see his value. He isn't a key player, but he's a rotational piece that we should try to get back. You just can't overpay. He is better than Harrison Phillips. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

One thing I will say about centers, I really like Mitch Morse, Paradis, and even Nick Easton.

 

I think we go after Morse as a Reid guy as there is familiarality there. He is also a very tall center at 6-6, which doesn't work for all quarterbacks, but would be fine for Josh Allen. 

 

Easton I like as well. I think he winds up with Pat Shurmur and the Giants. 

 

I think Paradis goes to to the Jets or stays in Denver. The Jets are the team with a center need who have more cap than us. Colts don't need one. 

 

If if you miss out on Morse I think you are okay with Bodine if you sign two really good guards. Quinton Spain and Mark Glowinski come to mind. There is enough money to sign both. 

 

At tackle you go after Daryl Williams or Josh Wells. 

 

Btw, people who want to draft an offensive lineman in the first round, look at the guys we are talking about giving good money to. 

 

Paradis - 6th round

Morse - 2nd round

Easton - UDFA

Spain - UDFA

Glowinski - 4th round 

Daryl Williams - 4th round

Josh Wells - UDFA

 

Its all about finding the right guys and developing them, not reaching on guys to fill holes. 

 

 

Outstanding point regarding draft position of offensive lineman.

 

The people who think that throwing early draft picks at the problem is going to instantly create a solution right away are not paying attention.

 

Flush with cap room and needing to turn around the program in year 3 they need to fill the positions with game-ready vets in FA and collect a couple more guys to develop in the middle and late part of the draft.

 

[chris heff]

12 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I think you let him test the market to see his value. He isn't a key player, but he's a rotational piece that we should try to get back. You just can't overpay. He is better than Harrison Phillips. 

Wouldn’t that be contrary to their stated philosophy of re-sign your own and draft?

[Augie]

15 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

It will be fun to bump this thread in a couple of months as it doesn’t matter who Beane signs there will be plenty of people saying he spent too much money..

 

 

 

....or signed all the wrong people, or didn’t spend enough money to get the guy they wanted or.....the possibilities are endless!   ?

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, chris heff said:

Wouldn’t that be contrary to their stated philosophy of re-sign your own and draft?

 

Yes and no. I'd be curious to see what his value is. He probably thinks he is a starter, whereas he is a rotational player here. 

 

When Beane said resign your own, I think he was talking about down the line, Tredavious etc. he's not going to break the bank on superstar free agents. He wants financial flexibility to sign his own when they come up for a pay day. 

 

This franchise has lost lost too many good players over the years becuase we couldn't pay them. Pat Williams, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Poz, etc etc etc. 

[chris heff]

I see that there are a few people that think they need two guards, I asked this earlier has judgment been passed on Teller after six games?

[BADOLBILZ]

53 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

my sense is they will mostly spend on extending guys they  drafted and like on their own roster, Milano, Tre White, Foster, Jones, Hyde, Poyer, Johnson, Lawson

 

None of the Bills drafted guys on your list are even eligible for extensions per the CBA.

 

I know it's been two decades since the Bills had to worry about being close to the salary cap so the nuance is completely lost on the average Bills fan after decades of irrelevance............but the players association doesn't want young players taking discount deals after their first couple seasons...........contracts are driven up by the threat of unrestricted free agency.   So you have to wait until late in a first contract players deal to extend them.

 

You aren't alone in not understanding this.........we have an entire thread here on TSW with about 20 different people talking about signing Shaq to a discounted 2 year contract extension this offseason when he's not even eligible.   All they can do this offseason is choose to guarantee him $10M in 2020 or let his contract expire after 2019.

[formerlyofCtown]

39 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

I didn’t know the going rate for a bad DT was 10 million... That’s interesting 

He isnt abad DT he is doing what he is supposed to do but you would actually have to know about football to understand that.