Updated: Steelers open to trading Antonio Brown - Rooney sees it hard bringing him back

[3rdand12]

Just now, ExWNYer said:

 

?

 

My boys are now 16 and 18. Hard to believe. I don't miss those diaper days but I do miss the innocence of youth as they grew into fine, young men. Enjoy every deliciously, aggravating, sleep-deprived minute. They go all too fast.

damn fine post right there.
we are on to to young grandkids now. and we try not to miss a minute. no matter how challenging.

and i still do not want ABrown  lol

[Nanker]

I bought a dozen large white eggs today. I’d throw that into the deal if it would mean anything. 

[ExWNYer]

Just now, 3rdand12 said:

damn fine post right there.
we are on to to young grandkids now. and we try not to miss a minute. no matter how challenging.

and i still do not want ABrown  lol

 

Thank you, kind sir. WRT AB, I think it's a moot point. I don't see this regime wanting to touch him with a 10 foot pole. AJ Green and Julio Jones, yes. AB, no. The Stillers have historically dumped guys before they either became a complete headache or demanded too much money. AB & Bell will be the next two on that list. If they're ridding themselves of two superb talents like that with an ever-narrowing window for Roethlisberger, I'd sit up and take notice. Big red flag, IMO. They both strike me as very selfish, 'me first' players. You don't want to take on those headaches if you're also shelling out megabucks for them.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, Josh "Real Deal" Allen said:

His career highs in receptions and yards were in 2014-15. 

 

Ages 25-27 avg 125rec 1677yds 10tds

Ages 28-30 avg 113 rec 1496 yds 13 tds

 

His catch % was also higher. Not  a terrible drop off.

 

But, his peak was clearly in the ages 25-27 , as the stats show and you would expect.

 

The saying don't pay a guy in his thirties for what he did in his twenties is applicable here.

 

I would happily bet you that he never never tops his peak numbers again.

 

For an assessment like this to be meaningful in a statistical sense, one would have to give some rationale for binning AB’s seasons in two 3 year clusters like this.

What’s the rationale for this vs not starting with the first year he played in 16 games and splitting his career 4 yrs and 4 years?  Or 4 - 2 years?  Or year by year?

 

For an assessment of AB’s football talent to be meaningful, one would also have to look at other data - for example, is it his QB who has fallen off?  Is AB now dividing receptions with teammates who are more talented than in his earlier years on the Stillers?

 

Sorry but as something to demonstrate a point “clearly”, this is just not very valid.

18 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

 

?

 

My boys are now 16 and 18. Hard to believe. I don't miss those diaper days but I do miss the innocence of youth as they grew into fine, young men. Enjoy every deliciously, aggravating, sleep-deprived minute. They go all too fast.

 

Hear, hear.  My 18 yr old is  halfway across the country freezing her buns for fun and I’m all verklempt missing the days of wide-eyed tree plundering.  

Enjoy each day because they’re precious and you blink, you miss ‘em.

[PetermansRedemption]

1 hour ago, Nanker said:

I bought a dozen large white eggs today. I’d throw that into the deal if it would mean anything. 

Should be enough to get it done 

[YoloinOhio]

This thread:

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

12 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

No, I didn't report you.

 

I only report people that blatantly go beyond the TOS. I've probably hit "report" 3 times in 10 years, and this ain't one of 'em.

 

Maybe someone else thinks that you did so, but me? Nope. I can handle myself just fine.

 

I don't have cronies, and I sure as heck ain't scared of your presence on the board.

 

Maybe it's worth some introspection in light of how you've handled yourself here.

 

But no, I didn't report you.

You too

[NoSaint]

6 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

We've seen his peak?

 

Didn't he lead the NFL in receiving TDs and have another 1,200-yard season with close to 100 receptions?

 

That's a highly debatable statement 

 

I think we’ve likely seen his peak but I don’t think that means he’s suddenly going to plummet or anything. 

 

I enjoy that he used “his peak stats were 60% better than the best 3 year run in our franchise history and his last 3 years were only 50% better” as an argument that we should avoid him. 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

I think we’ve likely seen his peak but I don’t think that means he’s suddenly going to plummet or anything. 

 

I enjoy that he used “his peak stats were 60% better than the best 3 year run in our franchise history and his last 3 years were only 50% better” as an argument that we should avoid him. 

 

In truth, it's entirely possible that we've seen his best, but claiming some kind of decline is imminent is crazy when the dude caught 15 TDs and had 1,200 yards receiving.

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

I think we’ve likely seen his peak but I don’t think that means he’s suddenly going to plummet or anything. 

 

I enjoy that he used “his peak stats were 60% better than the best 3 year run in our franchise history and his last 3 years were only 50% better” as an argument that we should avoid him. 

No thank you dealing with this odd fellow. 

 

 

https://nypost.com/2019/01/03/antonio-brown-steelers-saga-takes-odd-singing-contest-turn/

 

[Ol Dirty B]

Just now, JohnC said:

No thank you dealing with this odd fellow. 

 

 

https://nypost.com/2019/01/03/antonio-brown-steelers-saga-takes-odd-singing-contest-turn/

 

 

The show was filmed in June...

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

In truth, it's entirely possible that we've seen his best, but claiming some kind of decline is imminent is crazy when the dude caught 15 TDs and had 1,200 yards receiving.

That's all I said. When people refer to peak in my world that means when he was at his best. And, Antonio Brown was at his best in 2014-15. No where did I say he would fall off a cliff or become useless. He is clearly declining from where he was in 2014-15.

 

It was the condescension about 15 TDs this year as the argument ender. That is BS and I don't accept it.

Edited January 7, 2019 by Josh "Real Deal" Allen

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, Ol Dirty B said:

 

The show was filmed in June...

I don't care if it was filmed a decade ago. It still is weird. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 1/5/2019 at 2:19 PM, Rob's House said:

I'd give up a 3rd for him, but that's about it. I can't think of too many undersized WRs who continued to dominate in their mid 30s.

 

I don’t think the Steelers deal for a 3rd.  Someone will offer them more.

 

Brown is only 30, right?  So he could stop dominating in his mid-30s and still have 2-4 years of exceptional play

 

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, Josh "Real Deal" Allen said:

That's all I said. When people refer to peak in my world that means when he was at his best. And, Antonio Brown was at his best in 2014-15. No where did I say he would fall off a cliff or become useless. He is clearly declining from where he was in 2014-15.

 

It was the condescension about 15 TDs this year as the argument ender. That is BS and I don't accept it.

 

Well, when you present data that show little-to-no decline, claiming that they are definitive in showing a decline, then I assume we're in persuasive essay speech.

 

Especially since you declared that he's squarely in the "don't pay him" age bracket 

 

He can't exactly be below his best when he scored TDs at a career-best pace. 

Edited January 7, 2019 by thebandit27

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

27 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Well, when you present data that show little-to-no decline, claiming that they are definitive in showing a decline, then I assume we're in persuasive essay speech.

 

Especially since you declared that he's squarely in the "don't pay him" age bracket  

 

He can't exactly be below his best when he scored TDs at a career-best pace. 

Well, a 104(61% catch rate) catches in 2018 and 1297 yards is good. But, it isn't exactly 136 recs(70% CR) and 1834 yds like 2015. 

 

And, yes paying him for what he did in his 20s when he is in his 30s is a mistake. Albert Pujols

 

So your definition of peak value is the season he scores the most TDs. That's fine, but problematic when he had only 2 or 3 more in this season and he had 30 less catches and 600 less yards than in 2015. 

 

You started this whole thing by saying it was debatable about whether he was at his peak right now ...you think yes. I'm saying it was 3 years ago in 2015 and he's going to be 31 next year and while he may remain good, he never the less will decline and not be worth the money or the draft picks. If the Bills trade for him and win the Super Bowl I'll be wrong. I don't believe that is going to happen. I'd rather keep our first and get a younger guy and not deal with the headaches of a diva.

 

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Josh "Real Deal" Allen said:

Well, a 104(61% catch rate) catches in 2018 and 1297 yards is good. But, it isn't exactly 136 recs(70% CR) and 1834 yds like 2015. 

 

And, yes paying him for what he did in his 20s when he is in his 30s is a mistake. Albert Pujols

 

So your definition of peak value is the season he scores the most TDs. That's fine, but problematic when he had only 2 or 3 more in this season and he had 30 less catches and 600 less yards than in 2015. 

 

You started this whole thing by saying it was debatable about whether he was at his peak right now ...you think yes. I'm saying it was 3 years ago in 2015 and he's going to be 31 next year and while he may remain good, he never the less will decline and not be worth the money or the draft picks. If the Bills trade for him and win the Super Bowl I'll be wrong. I don't believe that is going to happen. I'd rather keep our first and get a younger guy and not deal with the headaches of a diva.

 

 

Well, the draft-your-own-instead approach is fine, up to a point: who in the draft do we believe will be close to the player that Brown is, and when should we expect him to perform at that level?

 

I don't expect you (or me, or Beane for that matter) to know that...and that's the point of trading. Brown is, for better or for worse, a known commodity. He's a top 3 NFL WR, and 2-4 seasons of that to help your rookie QB develop would be more worth it to me than taking an educated guess on a rookie 

[Dopey]

Antonio is frustrated. Feels he has no leverage.

https://sports.yahoo.com/antonio-brown-complains-having-no-131653244.html

[dabills21]

11 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Wait!? What!?  Now Steelers are open to trading him?  How could this be? @dabills21 told me it’s impossible and he will bet anyone who suggests it could happen.  

 

I suggest dabills21 hit up the Steelers and make a big wager with them because apparently the Steelers aren’t internally aware that it’s impossible!  I mean you could make a bunch of money off the absolute impossibility that he could ever be traded!  

 

Silly Steelers, so naive and ignorant to not even know it’s impososble for them to trade Brown.  Lucky us, we got prophets here at TSW who know the future better than we know our realities to keep us ahead of the curve on all things.

Obsess much?! Thought this forum wasn't supposed to call out people...maybe I'm mistaken.

 

I'll be the first to admit I was wrong (if he's dealt) but last I checked he's still a Pittsburgh Steeler...stay tuned and enjoy the long offseason

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Josh "Real Deal" Allen said:

Well, a 104(61% catch rate) catches in 2018 and 1297 yards is good. But, it isn't exactly 136 recs(70% CR) and 1834 yds like 2015. 

 

And, yes paying him for what he did in his 20s when he is in his 30s is a mistake. Albert Pujols

 

So your definition of peak value is the season he scores the most TDs. That's fine, but problematic when he had only 2 or 3 more in this season and he had 30 less catches and 600 less yards than in 2015. 

 

You started this whole thing by saying it was debatable about whether he was at his peak right now ...you think yes. I'm saying it was 3 years ago in 2015 and he's going to be 31 next year and while he may remain good, he never the less will decline and not be worth the money or the draft picks. If the Bills trade for him and win the Super Bowl I'll be wrong. I don't believe that is going to happen. I'd rather keep our first and get a younger guy and not deal with the headaches of a diva.

 

 

You certainly have a point that Brown had a better season back in 2015 than he did this past year, even with Roethlisberger throwing for slightly more yards in 2018.

But I think it must be considered what other WR were on the team?  

 

In 2015, Brown was sharing targets with Bryant and Wheaton, two OK WR, and he got more targets than both of them put together.

In 2018, Brown was sharing targets with Juju Smith-Schuster, who got about the same number of targets as Brown.

 

So Brown’s fewer catches and yards may well reflect a change in the composition of the offense to add a 2nd quality WR and a change in the design of the offense under a new OC, rather than a decline in Brown’s skills as a WR.  And in fact, that may well be at the heart of Brown’s tantrums - he wants to be the one with the most receiving yards and the most targets.

 

I don’t disagree with you that it’s unlikely the Bills would be in the market and trade for Brown, but however one slices and dices it’s clear he’s still one of the very best WR in the game.