Shaq Lawson 5th year option on the table

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BringBackOrton said:

Once they decline the option, they can negotiate an extension like normal. I’m sure they can technically open talks beforehand, but any agent worth his salt wouldn’t agree to anything before the option decision was finalized. Why give the Bills any more negotiation power? It’s like having a mini-franchise tag hanging over your head.

 

Yep fair point BBO. I suppose the reason I think it is a bit different to a franchise tag is it doesn't affect this coming year in any way. Shaq is under contract to the Bills for 2019 and will be here. If they go to his agent and are honest and simply say "look we are not taking up the option whatever happens but we are willing to talk about an extension in any event" what value is there to Shaq's side in saying "nah we won't talk until you haven't taken up the option?"

 

I can see why they would say "fine don't take up the option we are not willing to discuss an extension until after 2019" because in that situation they are essentially betting on Shaq. If he has another year similar to this as a rotational defensive end.... 5 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles, 6 passes defensed (3rd in the NFL among defensive linemen), 11 Quarterback hits and could just get his sack number up by a couple to 6 or 7 sacks then he would get a decent pay day.

[BringBackOrton]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep fair point BBO. I suppose the reason I think it is a bit different to a franchise tag is it doesn't affect this coming year in any way. Shaq is under contract to the Bills for 2019 and will be here. If they go to his agent and are honest and simply say "look we are not taking up the option whatever happens but we are willing to talk about an extension in any event" what value is there to Shaq's side in saying "nah we won't talk until you haven't taken up the option?"

 

I can see why they would say "fine don't take up the option we are not willing to discuss an extension until after 2019" because in that situation they are essentially betting on Shaq. If he has another year similar to this as a rotational defensive end.... 5 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles, 6 passes defensed (3rd in the NFL among defensive linemen), 11 Quarterback hits and could just get his sack number up by a couple to 6 or 7 sacks then he would get a decent pay day.

I think the best thing to happen to Lawson would be to have the option exercised, that’s why. It’s free 1 year GTD money with hitting UFA immediately after. You’d call their bluff that they aren’t going to exercise it, because you want it. And if you start negotiating beforehand, you basically agree to come back without the option, which eliminates the reason to use it.

Edited January 2, 2019 by BringBackOrton

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

I think the best thing to happen to Lawson would be to have the option exercised, that’s why. It’s free 1 year GTD money with hitting UFA immediately after. You’d call their bluff that they aren’t going to exercise it, because you want it. And if you start negotiating beforehand, you basically agree to come back without the option, which eliminates the reason to use it.

 

Yea but if the Bills tell you in February - we are not exercising that option - end of discussion, then what do you gain from waiting to talk to them about their offer of an extension until May or whenever the option decisions get made? I get what you gain by saying - "okay well we are not negotiating until after 2019 then" but what do you gain saying "okay well come back to us after you have formally declined the option"? I think if you are interested in staying beyond 2019 you might lose by doing that if the Bills then go and spend that money elsewhere during FA.

[ALF]

Try extension , cost of 5th year option would be too high for Shaq   

 

Have good incentives to make up the difference

[BringBackOrton]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but if the Bills tell you in February - we are not exercising that option - end of discussion, then what do you gain from waiting to talk to them about their offer of an extension until May or whenever the option decisions get made? I get what you gain by saying - "okay well we are not negotiating until after 2019 then" but what do you gain saying "okay well come back to us after you have formally declined the option"? I think if you are interested in staying beyond 2019 you might lose by doing that if the Bills then go and spend that money elsewhere during FA.

The chance that they are bluffing, like I said. They can say whatever they want, until the decision is made. 

 

The difference is really between now and May lost in negotiation. That still leaves May 19 - May 2020 to negotiate if the option isn’t picked up. If you can’t get a deal done in a year, it wasn’t going to happen.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

The chance that they are bluffing, like I said. They can say whatever they want, until the decision is made. 

 

The difference is really between now and May lost in negotiation. That still leaves May 19 - May 2020 to negotiate if the option isn’t picked up. If you can’t get a deal done in a year, it wasn’t going to happen.

 

March 2020 but I take the point. I suppose I just see the two windows as either being now or after the 2019 season.

[dave mcbride]

8 hours ago, dabills21 said:

I might be the only one who was confused by Sal's tweet, but to clarify:

1. Shaq is under contract for the 2019 season (unless we trade or release him - unlikely)

2. 5th year option would be for the 2020 season.  Even if Buffalo does not pick up the option, we'd still have the ability to sign as a free agent prior to the 2020 season

 

At this point, I don't think Shaq has done enough to lock him up for 2020.  Shaq seems like a great teammate and showed signs of improving this year, but his lack of consistent pass rush and slow burst off the ball is still a concern for me.  

 

This is a very good defensive end draft...if Beane stays true to his word (bpa), if expect that we find a DE in round 1 or 2

This team desperately needs offense, and Lawson is an average-to-above-average NFL player at this point. If you want to compare, I'd say he's probably comparable to Robert Woods with regard to how fans viewed him going into his year 4 season. They shouldn't be drafting for a replacement when they already have a decent player there and when the extension isn't that expensive given their cap situation. I'm not opposed to drafting DE if the guy is elite, mind you, but they simply have to fix the desperate offensive talent situation. They'll never go better than 9-7 without truly committing to a serious upgrade on that side of the ball.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

This team desperately needs offense, and Lawson is an average-to-above-average NFL player at this point. If you want to compare, I'd say he's probably comparable to Robert Woods with regard to how fans viewed him going into his year 4 season. They shouldn't be drafting for a replacement when they already have a decent player there and when the extension isn't that expensive given their cap situation. I'm not opposed to drafting DE if the guy is elite, mind you, but they simply have to fix the desperate offensive talent situation. They'll never go better than 9-7 without truly committing to a serious upgrade on that side of the ball.

 

But we desperately need pass rush Dave. If Hughes and 'Zo were 26 and 30 I would be absolutely saying pass rusher is a need that can wait. But they are 31 and 36 by the time 2019 season begins. Our third most productive pass rusher was Kyle Williams (14 QB hits and 5 sacks) who is already retired and our 4th most productive was Shaq (11 QB hits and 4 sacks). To me going in with Hughes, Zo and Shaq in 2019 would be bordering on negligent. And this is not a defense predicated on the blitz. We have to have guys who can get pressure up front. I get the need to properly upgrade our offense.... but to me we need a pass rusher within the first two days of this draft too. Because if Hughes or/and 'Zo (who is a FA as well let's not forget) hit the wall in 2019 we would be totally impotent as a defense.

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

If it was any other year, I would be a hard pass.  But we have nothing but cap room.  We can afford to over pay here and there.  There really is no down side to picking up the 5th year options, aside from shear principle, but this is coming from someone who doesn't actually have to pay the money. 

[dave mcbride]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But we desperately need pass rush Dave. If Hughes and 'Zo were 26 and 30 I would be absolutely saying pass rusher is a need that can wait. But they are 31 and 36 by the time 2019 season begins. Our third most productive pass rusher was Kyle Williams (14 QB hits and 5 sacks) who is already retired and our 4th most productive was Shaq (11 QB hits and 4 sacks). To me going in with Hughes, Zo and Shaq in 2019 would be bordering on negligent. And this is not a defense predicated on the blitz. We have to have guys who can get pressure up front. I get the need to properly upgrade our offense.... but to me we need a pass rusher within the first two days of this draft too. Because if Hughes or/and 'Zo (who is a FA as well let's not forget) hit the wall in 2019 we would be totally impotent as a defense.

You have to score in this league to win games. I'm not denying the need for a pass rusher, but pass rush was one of the least of the Bills' problems this season. Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson are all at least decent pass rushers and have another year or two of high productivity left at the very least. Hughes ain't close to being done, and there is a long history of DEs playing well into their 30s because they hone their craft over time.  Not one -- not one! -- of their offensive linemen, outside of perhaps Dawkins (who wasn't great but has  genuine physical talent and hence potential), is remotely good. They are literally all bad.

 

As for the pass rush, they had 36 sacks (a respectable number), but also a ton of pressures relative to other teams. The D finished 3rd in the league in net passing yards per attempt, which is a key stat. Opposing pass offenses had a very low rating of 82.6 too. 

Edited January 2, 2019 by dave mcbride

[2003Contenders]

Lawson may not be elite, but he is a good DE with the arrow pointing in the right direction.

 

Remember, as a rookie he missed all of training camp and most of the regular season with the shoulder surgery. In year 2, he had to learn a whole new defense under McD. By many accounts, he was a bubble player heading into 2018 -- and accepted the coaches' challenge to refine in certain areas.

 

Shaq is probably never going to be a 10+ sack guy, but that is not the role he plays on this team. Instead, he has shown himself to be solid in run defense and pass overage and serves as a nice complement to the edge rushers. He's also come up with some huge plays at opportune times this season. Good players like this are not in over-abundance in the NFL, and I suspect that he has emerged as a favorite with the coaches due to his work ethic and selfless play. He's also the type of guy that could blossom into a team leader and an asset in the locker room (if he isn't already).

 

Given that the goal is to draft, nurture and retain quality players, I would prefer to lock Shaq up to a long-term deal (or exercise the 5-year option), rather than needlessly create another spot-to-fill should we lose his services.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

You have to score in this league to win games. I'm not denying the need for a pass rusher, but pass rush was one of the least of the Bills' problems this season. Hughes, Murphy, and Lawson are all at least decent pass rushers and have another year or two of high productivity left at the very least. Hughes ain't close to being done, and there is a long history of DEs playing well into their 30s because they hone their craft over time.  Not one -- not one! -- of their offensive linemen, outside of perhaps Dawkins (who wasn't great but has  genuine physical talent and hence potential), is remotely good. They are literally all bad.

 

As for the pass rush, they had 36 sacks (a respectable number), but also a ton of pressures relative to other teams. The D finished 3rd in the league in net passing yards per attempt, which is a key stat. Opposing pass offenses had a very low rating of 82.6 too. 

 

Even if Hughes plays as well next year as he did this (hard for me to believe because this was arguably his best year as a Bill in some ways) I cannot imagine that even if Zo is here he plays as well as a 36 year old and Kyle has gone. So some drop off from 'Zo and all Kyle's pass rush production already leaves a sizeable void. If Hughes, Zo and Kyle were each 3 or 4 years younger and coming back next year I'd agree with you that pass rush is the least of our issues because the pass rush was serviceable this year. But they are not. I think coming back with no major pass rushing additions really risks us asking our secondary to cover forever in games next season.

 

I don't disagree with you on the o-line either. I've said many times my strategy for the offseason is upgrade at center and guard in FA (plus find a proper vet leader of a WR either who is a FA or a cap casualty elsewhere), prioritise high ceiling offensive skill positions and a pass rusher in the first 3 rounds of the draft and then after that you need some more offensive weapons, a RT prospect and some depth at corner. They have the ability to get that all done.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Even if Hughes plays as well next year as he did this (hard for me to believe because this was arguably his best year as a Bill in some ways) I cannot imagine that even if Zo is here he plays as well as a 36 year old and Kyle has gone. So some drop off from 'Zo and all Kyle's pass rush production already leaves a sizeable void. If Hughes, Zo and Kyle were each 3 or 4 years younger and coming back next year I'd agree with you that pass rush is the least of our issues because the pass rush was serviceable this year. But they are not. I think coming back with no major pass rushing additions really risks us asking our secondary to cover forever in games next season.

 

I don't disagree with you on the o-line either. I've said many times my strategy for the offseason is upgrade at center and guard in FA (plus find a proper vet leader of a WR either who is a FA or a cap casualty elsewhere), prioritise high ceiling offensive skill positions and a pass rusher in the first 3 rounds of the draft and then after that you need some more offensive weapons, a RT prospect and some depth at corner. They have the ability to get that all done.

I place RT as a higher priority position than you. The Jordan Mills era has to end. I think they can also overspend a bit in FA to get a decent guard. There are some out there.  

Edited January 2, 2019 by dave mcbride

[GunnerBill]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

I place RT as a higher priority position than you. The Jordan Mills era has to end. 

 

He is a FA so it might well end. Personally if he is cheap I'd bring him back and draft the guy I want to replace him. If Mills has to start the first 3 or 4 weeks I will live with that. To me that is far lower on my list than a pass rusher..... though both C and G are higher on said list.

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is a FA so it might well end. Personally if he is cheap I'd bring him back and draft the guy I want to replace him. If Mills has to start the first 3 or 4 weeks I will live with that. To me that is far lower on my list than a pass rusher..... though both C and G are higher on said list.

Matt Paradis (C) and Mark Glowinski (G) are both free agents, and the Bills will have the resources to get them. They are both good players. Both play for teams in which the QB takes up a very large portion of the cap. Plus Denver has to pay for Von Miller. 

 

Edit - Rodger Saffold, Quentin Spain, and Ramon Foster are available too. They are all better than what we have, although Saffold is a little old (31) and I find it hard to envision him moving from LA to Buffalo. Spain would only be a modest upgrade.  Regardless, there are good interior-line FAs out there to be had.

Edited January 2, 2019 by dave mcbride

[ndirish1978]

Just extend him, don't mess around with a 5th year option

[GunnerBill]

54 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Matt Paradis (C) and Mark Glowinski (G) are both free agents, and the Bills will have the resources to get them. They are both good players. Both play for teams in which the QB takes up a very large portion of the cap. Plus Denver has to pay for Von Miller. 

 

Edit - Rodger Saffold, Quentin Spain, and Ramon Foster are available too. They are all better than what we have, although Saffold is a little old (31) and I find it hard to envision him moving from LA to Buffalo. Spain would only be a modest upgrade.  Regardless, there are good interior-line FAs out there to be had.

 

I like Spain much more than you. He is my #1 target and I think he is a perfect fit for this offense. 

[T master]

Just sign him to a extension that will be performance based that way he will be hungry & continue to get better !! 

[ctk232]

5 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

He is a depth DE that can give you starts if needed.  What exactly are you looking for out of him?

 

If you are looking for JJ Watt type numbers then yes you will be disappointed, but if you are looking for a player that can give you some nice early down plays both against the run game and the pass game then there is nothing wrong with him.

 

In 14 games - 30 tackles, 4 sacks, 6 passes knocked down, and 2 forced fumbles for a rotation DE.

 

If you lock him up at 5 million a season or so and expect similar numbers you are not embracing suck - you are maintaining depth at a valuable position.  If you sign him to a 10-12 million contract and expect him to start and be your primary DE and put up bigger numbers - then you may have an argument, but that is not what they have expected in his 2 years under McDermott - he is a hard working complimentary piece.

Agreed - we just had our longtime defensive leader and stout middle DT officially retire. We all hope Hughes continues to show out on the plus side of 30, and Star to keep stuffing double teams and getting crazy jump off the snap. The issue we have is in pass rush and disruption. While Shaq isn't going to be the JJ Watt talent guy along the line, he bought into an incredibly valuable role and has done so with improved performance. Never underestimate a guy who has actually bought into the process/system in place and will continue to develop along with the team. 

 

It likely won't be a popular opinion, and while a trial year of picking up the option seems a decent idea to see if the progression continues - but now would seem an opportune time to consider an extension on terms that the FO would be okay with in case he does continue to develop, and demand more in an eventual extension. Given his buying into the system and turning his game around, it would appear he'd like to stay and may objectively consider an extension at this point, from his perspective, locking up something that is otherwise uncertain in terms of his career.

 

In a year where we can ill-afford to lose any guys along our DLine until suitable replacements are found, picking up the option at least makes sense here, if not a reasonable extension as a rotational DE/DT and role player.

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

5 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

He is a depth DE that can give you starts if needed.  What exactly are you looking for out of him?

 

If you are looking for JJ Watt type numbers then yes you will be disappointed, but if you are looking for a player that can give you some nice early down plays both against the run game and the pass game then there is nothing wrong with him.

 

In 14 games - 30 tackles, 4 sacks, 6 passes knocked down, and 2 forced fumbles for a rotation DE.

 

If you lock him up at 5 million a season or so and expect similar numbers you are not embracing suck - you are maintaining depth at a valuable position.  If you sign him to a 10-12 million contract and expect him to start and be your primary DE and put up bigger numbers - then you may have an argument, but that is not what they have expected in his 2 years under McDermott - he is a hard working complimentary piece.

 

I just disagree with this, even as a rotational DE we can do better imo, I can get behind the fact that we drafted him to be a pass rusher but found out he was better against the run, is there any statistic that shows that he's good against the run, if that's the case why did we end up 19th in the league defending against the run? And of his 4 sacks this season 2 of them came in the Miami game week 17.  His fifth year option will give him 9M+ according to this website https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/04/nfl-fifth-year-option-salaries-2019, there is no way 4 sacks and run stuffing is worth 9M+ a season.