Sunday/Monday Firings: Patience rarely pays off, and can be very costly.

[Doc]

If I were McDermott, I’d identify the guys I want to be 0C and DC and offer them jobs, unless they get head-coaching jobs elsewhere. 

[Wayne Cubed]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

I'm pleased that someone actually read my post.  My theory is that type 1 errors (sticking with a loser too long) are much more common than type 2 (firing too soon).  I think most teams err on the side of giving a coach at least one season too many to prove that he knows what he's doing.  I cited 4 examples and could have added more (Marvin Lewis, Jeff Fisher, among others).  I'm having trouble coming up with even one type 2 error, although you're correct that type 2 errors are a bit more difficult to prove.  I  think Andy Reid had simply worn out his welcome in Philly and, as it turns out, the move worked out pretty well for both the Eagles and the Chiefs.  Anthony Lynn isn't a good example because he was never really hired here and given a chance in the first place.

 

I fully expected a barrage of negative responses from folks here who are satisfied with a coach who takes over a .500 team and delivers 9-7 and 6-10 seasons.  As I've said many times, nobody has lower standards than Bills fans.  Under McDermott, the Bills are 10-16, after starting 5-2.  They have been blown out more regularly than any Bills teams since the mid-80s.  Elsewhere the Steelers are reportedly considering firing Mike Tomlin for missing the playoffs just once, after winning a Super Bowl and making the playoffs almost continuously for over a decade.  One of Tomlin's biggest problems:  He can't seem to beat Belichick (see below) and that's just not good enough in Pittsburgh. 

 

As has been true since 2000, the Bills' goal every year should be to dislodge NE from the top of the division and every move they make should be with that goal in mind.  Until that happens, the Bills will be a disappointment.  Maybe most troubling to me is that McDermott has been a deer in headlights against NE.  None of the four games vs. NE have been competitive and the last one was nothing short of pathetic.  Brady had maybe the worst game of his career and the Bills still trailed 24-6 in the fourth quarter.  It made me believe that McDermott will probably never be able to go toe-to-toe with Belichick, with or without Brady.  I realize that's a high standard, and that plenty of other coaches would fail that test too, but if the Bills want to join the elite teams in the league, it's just the way it is.

 

By they way, I'm amused at the folks who say "McDermott isn't getting fired this year, so why are you posting this crap?"  I fully recognize that he's not going anywhere this year and I acknowledge as much in the OP, but this is a discussion board and I reserve the right to suggest that perhaps the Pegulas are wrong about this.  ?   

       

 

I don't think there is any problem with questioning McDermott as a head coach thus far. He's 15-17 after 2 seasons. He took over a mediocre team and has kept them mediocre thus far. He's succeeded in areas that he should have and was expected to succeed in, namely the defense.  They are good enough to keep the team in games and the talent level allows that. The other 2 parts of the team, offense and special teams, leave a lot to be desired. Outside of Josh Allen and maybe Daboll. He seems to stick with guys he's comfortable with, ie Castillo and Crossman, which is worrisome. McDermott and Beane's evaluation of offensive talent also leave a lot to be desired. 

 

Saying all that, I think giving them 2019 isn't a horrible idea. I know you point to Bowles/Koetter as examples of coaches that should have been obviously fired but they had both taken over some pretty bad teams. In their first season I think they both exceeded expectations in comparison to where the teams were. Jackson/Joseph were both horrible from the get go, so I think those were better examples of the writing being on the wall. Think those firings came a season too late.

 

There also is the problem of, what's available in the HC talent pool. Where are the next up and comers? Is there a Sean McVay or Matt Nagy or Doug Pederson out there? And there are 8 openings, could the Bills land one of those type of guys?

Edited December 31, 2018 by Wayne Cubed

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

I don't think there is any problem with questioning McDermott has a head coach thus far. He's 15-17 after 2 seasons. He took over a mediocre team and has kept them mediocre thus far. He's succeeded in areas that he should have and was expected to succeed in, namely the defense.  They are good enough to keep the team the team in games and the talent level allows that. The other 2 parts of the team, offense and special teams, leave a lot to be desired. Outside of Josh Allen and maybe Daboll. He seems to stick with guys he's comfortable with, ie Castillo and Crossman, which is worrisome. McDermott and Beane's evaluation of offensive talent also leave a lot to be desired. 

 

Saying all that, I think they giving them 2019 isn't a horrible idea. I know you point to Bowles/Koetter as examples of coaches that should have been obviously fired but they had both taken over some pretty bad teams. In their first season I think they both exceeded expectations in comparison to where the teams were. Jackson/Joseph were both horrible from the get go, so I think those were better examples of the writing being on the wall. Think those firings came a season too late.

 

There also is the problem of, what's available in the HC talent pool. Where are the next up and comers? Is there a Sean McVay or Matt Nagy or Doug Pederson out there? And there are 8 openings, could the Bills land one of those type of guys?

Your last point is a very good one.  Is there anyone better available?  That has to be a consideration.

[Scorp83]

12 hours ago, CLTbills said:

Haven't read anything this dumb in a while. They didn't think the kid would be this good? Are you kidding? You don't draft up to #7 overall for a guy that you "Dont think would be this good." 

And here's my other favorite... "The offensive moves they've made the past 2 years has not paid off! It's hard to trust their judgment!!! "

You really have no clue, do you?  You do realize how the "rebuilding" thing works, right?

Heck no they didn't think he would be this good. They took him 7th overall & probably would have moved up higher to do it. Just because they took him high doesn't mean they knew he was good... look how many busts QB's went in the top 10 since 2000!

 

Their previous actions proved they had no clue what they were doing... Rex actually left this team with more talent then, than what we have now. We didn't have to rebuild... the team was good during Rex era... they just needed to get the defense right.

 

Nobody told McDermott to rip apart the offense... & not replace the talent. No yea... the only thing they can sale to you, was a "Rebuild"

 

It was the only thing you & most of the fanbase could except to cover up stupidity. 

 

But hey, I can already tell... McDermott can't do no wrong in your eyes... so continue to turn a blind eye to benching Tyrod for Peterman, Trading away Watkins, Passing on Mahomes (cause apparently, through their evaluation...that you seem to trust so much...he wasn't good enough to draft at 11th), Started Peterman again over Allen...might I add, & I'm not touching his decision making & clock management during games...

 

But hey... this is crazy to even speak of & this will probably be the 2nd dumbest thing you've read in a while.

 

 

Smh... ?????

 

Happy New Year's buddy. 

Go Bills...  prayfully this front office get it right & help this Kidd... cause man... he saved their butts.

[Green Lightning]

21 hours ago, mannc said:

The coaches who’ve been fired so far, or certainly will be tomorrow—Bowles, Koetter, and Joseph—all should have been fired last year, but were kept around in the interest of continuity.  As a result, those franchises wasted a year finding out what was already obvious to any sentient observer—that those guys were not good coaches.  Put the Browns in this category, too.  If they had fired Hue Jackson at the end of last season, as he so richly deserved, they probably would be preparing for a playoff game right now.

 

It seems clear that McDermott is going to survive Black Monday, but should he?  By giving him another season, are we wasting a year of Josh Allen’s cheap rookie contract?  Are we stunting his development by making him play for a coach who turtles any time he finds himself with a 14-point lead?  

Only a complete idiot would fire McDermott.

[The Now Moment]

21 hours ago, mannc said:

The coaches who’ve been fired so far, or certainly will be tomorrow—Bowles, Koetter, and Joseph—all should have been fired last year, but were kept around in the interest of continuity.  As a result, those franchises wasted a year finding out what was already obvious to any sentient observer—that those guys were not good coaches.  Put the Browns in this category, too.  If they had fired Hue Jackson at the end of last season, as he so richly deserved, they probably would be preparing for a playoff game right now.

 

It seems clear that McDermott is going to survive Black Monday, but should he?  By giving him another season, are we wasting a year of Josh Allen’s cheap rookie contract?  Are we stunting his development by making him play for a coach who turtles any time he finds himself with a 14-point lead?  

People constantly blame him for the conservative playcalling but you play to your roster’s strengths. We were a better defensive team than offensive team in each of the last two seasons.

 

I think he’ll be more aggressive with a more consistent/reliable offense. Being more aggressive isn’t always the right call. 

[PatsFanNH]

Umm did I miss something? He broke the long playoff drought last year then cleared a lot of cap space and still went 6-10.. with little O talent.

 

next year be the challenging year if they still struggle on O I can see fans asking for his head but why now??

Edited January 1, 2019 by PatsFanNH

[DuckyBoys]

We need continuity  The endless coaching changes and search for a franchise qb have to end.  Things look they are lined up for the Bills to make a significant jump in 2019.  They stumble next year maybe a change would be needed.  Hard to win when you are changing coaches/schemes every three years in perpetutity

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Umm did I miss something? He broke the long playoff drought last year then cleared a lot of cap space and still went 6-10.. with little O talent.

 

next year be the challenging year if they still struggle on O I can see fans asking for his head but why now??

How do you think McDermott has done against the Pats?  Do you agree that he was roadkill this past Sunday?  I can certainly see why you want him to be retained.

[PatsFanNH]

Just now, mannc said:

How do you think McDermott has done against the Pats?  Do you agree that he was roadkill this past Sunday?  I can certainly see why you want him to be retained.

So losing to the Pats makes him a coach that should be fired? So Andy Reid should be fired,  Tomlin should been fired years ago, same with the Bears coach, oh yes Reich from Indy.. just name a few. 

 

You cant be focused on just one team but building a team win consistently threwout the league. 

[Thriftygamer83]

17 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

It was a bad year, only diehard fans and chronic complainers stick around.

 

McD gets 3-5 years provided he doesn’t resign or do something insane to get himself fired.

McDermott has ups and downs like every other Head Coach.  Right now it’s about finding what can make Zay Jones and Robert Foster make those clutch grabs as they did against Miami.  Otherwise, looking at Croom whose a clutch guy even with the New England fumble anyone else remember how he scooped up Zay’s fumble against the Jets and turned it into six?  Smart player, good heads up decision making, and has a work ethic like Metzellars and Carwell Gardner.  Logan Thomas yesterday made that kid from Miami a Christmas Tree with how hard he lit him up.  It’s a young team gelling together not everyone’s going to be a super star.

[John from Riverside]

13 minutes ago, mannc said:

How do you think McDermott has done against the Pats?  Do you agree that he was roadkill this past Sunday?  I can certainly see why you want him to be retained.

Your view is very narrow minded

 

As much as it pains me to say it....the pats have dominated not just our div but the league....and there are MANY coaches who would need to be fired if they didnt have a good record against the pats.....

 

McD....in a rebiulding year....with a rookie QB....no running game.....bad OL play......50 million in dead cap.....etc etc etc....was SUPPOSED to win against NE?  He should get credit for keeping it close in one of the games as it is.

 

 

[Thriftygamer83]

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

How do you think McDermott has done against the Pats?  Do you agree that he was roadkill this past Sunday?  I can certainly see why you want him to be retained.

We had a chance to blow out New England if Zay Jones and Robert Foster would not have lost concentration or proved that they simply could not live up to the #1 and #2 status put on them.  You had Clay dropping balls (along with being a healthy scratch since the first Miami loss) had Daboll and Allen finding the weaknesses to eke our last minute wins let down by sloppy ill-timed drops because they were scared of getting hit.  But, you have elevated practice squad in Foster and a depth chart near dead end in Zay whose noticeably better when the pressures off of him to actually perform.  After yesterday Daboll and Castillo have every right to be here.  They work with young guys and guys like Groy who completely crumbled under the pressure.  

5 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Your view is very narrow minded

 

As much as it pains me to say it....the pats have dominated not just our div but the league....and there are MANY coaches who would need to be fired if they didnt have a good record against the pats.....

 

McD....in a rebiulding year....with a rookie QB....no running game.....bad OL play......50 million in dead cap.....etc etc etc....was SUPPOSED to win against NE?  He should get credit for keeping it close in one of the games as it is.

 

 

Both of those games could have been closer; the reviving corps with Zay Jones becoming a second round bust and shining albeit when the pressures off makes him a depth chart dead end.  Zay’s not progressing and finding the clutch way to pull off a one handed grab or making a spectacular diving catch; just a future journey man whose traded up and down or flipped for draft picks.  I hate saying it like that but it’s true.  

[downunderbill]

They deserve to put their plan in place and thankfully they will get that chance. Changing GMs and head coaches every 2 years is ridiculous and the path of a perennial loser, no matter how many tiers of error you call it.

 

Edited January 1, 2019 by downunderbill

[John from Riverside]

34 minutes ago, Thriftygamer83 said:

We had a chance to blow out New England if Zay Jones and Robert Foster would not have lost concentration or proved that they simply could not live up to the #1 and #2 status put on them.  You had Clay dropping balls (along with being a healthy scratch since the first Miami loss) had Daboll and Allen finding the weaknesses to eke our last minute wins let down by sloppy ill-timed drops because they were scared of getting hit.  But, you have elevated practice squad in Foster and a depth chart near dead end in Zay whose noticeably better when the pressures off of him to actually perform.  After yesterday Daboll and Castillo have every right to be here.  They work with young guys and gRouys like Groy who completely crumbled under the pressure.  

Both of those games could have been closer; the reviving corps with Zay Jones becoming a second round bust and shining albeit when the pressures off makes him a depth chart dead end.  Zay’s not progressing and finding the clutch way to pull off a one handed grab or making a spectacular diving catch; just a future journey man whose traded up and down or flipped for draft picks.  I hate saying it like that but it’s true.  

It could well be true....I have him as the 4th WR of my proposed revamped WR roster

 

Golden Tate

Deebo Samuel

Robert Foster

Zay Jones

Issah McKenzie

[stuvian]

the coaches fired in their 2nd year were not kept on for continuity. They were kept on because they WERE IN THE FIRST YEAR of a multi year contract. 

[Saxum]

14 hours ago, mannc said:

As I've said many times, nobody has lower standards than Bills fans. 

 

So which are you?  Not a Bills fan or have lower standards than rest of us who read your posts hence have low standards?

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

So losing to the Pats makes him a coach that should be fired? So Andy Reid should be fired,  Tomlin should been fired years ago, same with the Bears coach, oh yes Reich from Indy.. just name a few. 

 

You cant be focused on just one team but building a team win consistently threwout the league. 

 

Wow. A P*ts fan with more sense than a "Bills" fan.  We need to do a trade.

[Thriftygamer83]

8 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

So losing to the Pats makes him a coach that should be fired? So Andy Reid should be fired,  Tomlin should been fired years ago, same with the Bears coach, oh yes Reich from Indy.. just name a few. 

 

You cant be focused on just one team but building a team win consistently threwout the league. 

Nobody wants to come out and say Zay Jones is a depth chart dead end and second round bust.  Whose pretty much being beaten out for playing time and on targets by McKenzie and Foster.  Along with Jason Croom who makes smart decisions (I know the whole Pats fumble thing; but remember when he pounced on a Zay Jones fumble for six?) I still say now Foster is emerging as a talent; while Zay plays well when the pressures off him.  McDermott has pretty much already pulled the trigger on flipping Zay for draft picks next season or at the draft.  Allen has looked great despite the supposed “inaccuriries” largely occurring; with putting a ball where only the receiver could get it, and the receivers pretty much proving they are not ready for prime time. Charles Clay as well is a healthy scratch not just from games but practices as well; after his case of the drops and well into this season I think his attitude is not buying into the process but largely just wanting to stick around for his contract.   

[PatsFanNH]

2 hours ago, Thriftygamer83 said:

Nobody wants to come out and say Zay Jones is a depth chart dead end and second round bust.  Whose pretty much being beaten out for playing time and on targets by McKenzie and Foster.  Along with Jason Croom who makes smart decisions (I know the whole Pats fumble thing; but remember when he pounced on a Zay Jones fumble for six?) I still say now Foster is emerging as a talent; while Zay plays well when the pressures off him.  McDermott has pretty much already pulled the trigger on flipping Zay for draft picks next season or at the draft.  Allen has looked great despite the supposed “inaccuriries” largely occurring; with putting a ball where only the receiver could get it, and the receivers pretty much proving they are not ready for prime time. Charles Clay as well is a healthy scratch not just from games but practices as well; after his case of the drops and well into this season I think his attitude is not buying into the process but largely just wanting to stick around for his contract.   

Every GM/Coach has issues with players.. BB the GM traded a Fifth round draft pick for a worthless Haynesworth who failed do anything.  He also drafted MANY busts in the draft. Heck there is one draft there was zero players left on the team after 3 years.  

 

BB the coach has sat many a great player for not buying into the Patriot way as well. (My teams version of the process) and then traded them away for nothing more than draft position.

 

my point is not every move is amazing and you will whiff on draft picks.. (hopefully never a full draft) 

 

the Bills GM and coaching staff pretty much said this year was a rebuild year when they traded Taylor away along with other pieces being let go.

 

IMO they earned at least a year 3 since they broke the playoff drought and the Bills were the scariest team outside of NE in the AFC East. (Yes the Pats lost to Miami, but they lost it a hell lot more than the dolphins won that game.)

[Dr. Who]

10 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Umm did I miss something? He broke the long playoff drought last year then cleared a lot of cap space and still went 6-10.. with little O talent.

 

next year be the challenging year if they still struggle on O I can see fans asking for his head but why now??

You didn't miss anything. When I was a wee lad and there was no internet, had to walk for miles just to get to the little school house with a wood fire, I had the utterly naive belief that fellow Bills' fans were hearty, intelligent, decent folk -- and lots of them are, but like the rest of the human race, there are plenty of dopes.