Sunday/Monday Firings: Patience rarely pays off, and can be very costly.

[RaoulDuke79]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Allen and Edmunds will eventually cost Beane and McDermott their jobs.

Thanks for coming in today Gregg.

[Scorp83]

7 hours ago, mannc said:

The coaches who’ve been fired so far, or certainly will be tomorrow—Bowles, Koetter, and Joseph—all should have been fired last year, but were kept around in the interest of continuity.  As a result, those franchises wasted a year finding out what was already obvious to any sentient observer—that those guys were not good coaches.  Put the Browns in this category, too.  If they had fired Hue Jackson at the end of last season, as he so richly deserved, they probably would be preparing for a playoff game right now.

 

It seems clear that McDermott is going to survive Black Monday, but should he?  By giving him another season, are we wasting a year of Josh Allen’s cheap rookie contract?  Are we stunting his development by making him play for a coach who turtles any time he finds himself with a 14-point lead?  

This is a great legitimate question! Most posters will wonder why your saying this buddy ?

 

But if anyone has been paying attention. This front office has made countless mistakes, they can evaluate talent. The offensive moves they've made the past 2 years has not paid off! It's hard to trust their judgment!!! 

 

Example, Draft season I was banging the table to NOT draft Allen. Yet McBeane takes him anyway...I just added it the the failure of moves this front office has made, but Allen proved everyone wrong, including the Coaching Staff... yet they picked Peterman over him during training camp. Smh

 

I think we lucked up on Allen being good... I was wrong... & I think McBeane were wrong in their evaluation too... they probably didn't think the Kidd would be this good....this early either... if they did, they wouldn't have kept Peterman starting for so long. 

 

Then mismanaging the QB position entirely was almost fireable. But we do need continuity... & we do fire coaches left & right. 

 

But like you said... Are we wasting another year with McDermott? That's tough cause I don't think McDermott is the right guy for the job. I haven't even touched on his game management skills either 

[Scorp83]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

McDermott has had 2 years.....one of which HE MADE THE PLAYOFFS

 

IS this a serious question?

Devil's Advocate:

 

You do realize he tried not to go to the playoffs right? He bench our starting QB in a winnable game while we had control of our own destiny at the time. He in Peterman which became the laughing stock of the league.

Then doubled down on it this year... 

We barely made the playoffs & needed a miracle to get in... it happened & yes it was fun... but we didn't need to do all that if our coach wasn't a bonehead to begin with. 

 

#ImJusSayin 

[CLTbills]

38 minutes ago, Scorp83 said:

This is a great legitimate question! Most posters will wonder why your saying this buddy ?

 

But if anyone has been paying attention. This front office has made countless mistakes, they can evaluate talent. The offensive moves they've made the past 2 years has not paid off! It's hard to trust their judgment!!! 

 

Example, Draft season I was banging the table to NOT draft Allen. Yet McBeane takes him anyway...I just added it the the failure of moves this front office has made, but Allen proved everyone wrong, including the Coaching Staff... yet they picked Peterman over him during training camp. Smh

 

I think we lucked up on Allen being good... I was wrong... & I think McBeane were wrong in their evaluation too... they probably didn't think the Kidd would be this good....this early either... if they did, they wouldn't have kept Peterman starting for so long. 

 

Then mismanaging the QB position entirely was almost fireable. But we do need continuity... & we do fire coaches left & right. 

 

But like you said... Are we wasting another year with McDermott? That's tough cause I don't think McDermott is the right guy for the job. I haven't even touched on his game management skills either 

Haven't read anything this dumb in a while. They didn't think the kid would be this good? Are you kidding? You don't draft up to #7 overall for a guy that you "Dont think would be this good." 

And here's my other favorite... "The offensive moves they've made the past 2 years has not paid off! It's hard to trust their judgment!!! "

You really have no clue, do you?  You do realize how the "rebuilding" thing works, right?

[BmarvB]

7 hours ago, mannc said:

The coaches who’ve been fired so far, or certainly will be tomorrow—Bowles, Koetter, and Joseph—all should have been fired last year, but were kept around in the interest of continuity.  As a result, those franchises wasted a year finding out what was already obvious to any sentient observer—that those guys were not good coaches.  Put the Browns in this category, too.  If they had fired Hue Jackson at the end of last season, as he so richly deserved, they probably would be preparing for a playoff game right now.

 

It seems clear that McDermott is going to survive Black Monday, but should he?  By giving him another season, are we wasting a year of Josh Allen’s cheap rookie contract?  Are we stunting his development by making him play for a coach who turtles any time he finds himself with a 14-point lead?  

Keeping McD for another year is the correct decision. As much as they don't want to admit it, they're rebuilding. The team overall is heading in the right direction. Just have to upgrade the offensive line, add a #1 caliber receiver, and fortify the defensive line.

 

I think they can handle that in year 3

[BringBackOrton]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly it is only Buffalo fans who even think this is a serious question. It isn't just Bill Cowher, but people around the NFL in general who think he has done extremely well to coach an under talented team to the playoffs last year and eek 6 wins out of this roster this year. I have spoken before about the guy I know who was a position coach in the league for a few years who now lives over here in the UK. He texted me last night saying "6 wins with that lot! McDermott is a genius!"

 

While I agree he has gotten everything out of the rosters he has had here I tend to push back a little bit on those views because what the people from the outside maybe don't see is that this is McDermott's tear down. He is part of the reason the team is so under talented. I still think overall he has done a decent job and I think you have seen the last 4 or 5 weeks him getting a bit more aggressive in his situational decisions as his confidence in Josh Allen grows. 

 

The question is whether he is a good coach for bad players or whether he can turn a more talented roster into a serious contender. That is the test for 2019 and as Badol put it the other day.... ***** just got real for this regime. 

 

As for firing those 3 last year. I do feel for Todd Bowles a little. That Jets team last year should have won 1 or 2 games maximum. He did a really good job with it in 2017. This year I think they have been too inconsistent and there have been weeks they have not played with any fire. I understand the firing but I blame the GM in New York much more than I blame Todd Bowles. Three years in a row he has been presented with terrible rosters to coach. 

 

Agree all around. 2019 is the make or break. Another 6 win year with some underperforming FAs and draftees and the whispers grow.

[teef]

i'm going to say it...anyone who thinks this staff should be fired in the off season is just dumb, and shouldn't be allowed to have children.  if they have an awful year next year, i can understanding the rumblings, but this year?  you are stupid. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he coached conservative last year and at times early this year. The last few weeks as his comfort level with Josh Allen has grown he has clearly been more aggressive in my view. Gone for 4th and short (hell he went for a 4th and 2 and let Allen sneak a 4th and 2!!) thrown it at the end of halves (threw it against Detroit as well when we could have kept running guaranteed to make them use time outs and punted) and not gone for stupidly long FGs. How much that is a season with nothing on it and Hauschka's health concerns vs a genuine change of emphasis remains to be seen, but he has clearly been more aggressive. 

 

I personally think the “conservative” moments were all tied to personnel.  I mean the very first play of Josh allens career he had him chuck it deep.  We lead the NFL in shots downfield (I think we are still first in this, among the leaders if not).  

 

So I think with Josh he wants to be aggressive and has been.  He frequently goes for fourth down conversions, we are always throwing downfield on third and forever compared to draws or screens, etc etc.  I mean they dumped slow WRs midseason to get speed on the field to go deep too.  So I think McD is miscategorized as “conservative” just because of two things...personnel (Tyrod, NP, DA stints) and his defensive background causing fans to stereotype him.  

 

He seems like a coach who loves driving his Ferrari in Josh, now all he has to do is put better wheels on it (more weapons around Josh) and tune (further develop Josh) that Ferrari better so it runs smooth and fast.  I’m really excited to see what they add this offseason and see how it develops next year.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

Wait. I'm confused. When did we start hating McDermott? Pretty sure like 4 weeks ago, he was still one of the better young coaches in the NFL. What happened?

 

Just because you're a McDermott cheerleader doesn't mean everyone is.  I've considered McDermott (and his pardnuh Beane) incompetent since he named Nate Peterman the starter for the season opener.  They should both be gone.  His -- and Beane's -- handling of the QB situation is more than adequate grounds for sending both packing.

[TPS]

I think you forgot to put “im” in front of patience...

[CLTbills]

3 hours ago, richardb1952 said:

Go back and watch some Rex Ryan coached Bills teams.  Bills are light years ahead of where they were then.  Bills could have beaten HOU, Jets, Miami this year and been 9-7 with huge turnover on the OL, a new QB, and one WR from previous year.  At 9-7 they still would not have made the playoffs.   With over $90 mil in cap space and 10 draft picks, the needle is moving in the right direction.  Team is playing hard and I am enthused for next year and beyond.  McBeane duo is not the problem, they are the solution.  Can they get better, certainly.  They are growing as the team is growing.  Go Bills.

How dare you be reasonable and use logic?

[Foxx]

7 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

How dare you be reasonable and use logic?

except that you know... they didn't beat Hou, Jets and Miami. shoulda/woulda/coulda logic now passes as reasonable?

[CLTbills]

1 minute ago, Foxx said:

except that you know... they didn't beat Hou, Jets and Miami. shoulda/woulda/coulda logic now passes as reasonable?

The point is, this team is very close to being legitimate contenders. Given the roster situation, (and yes, I'm well aware that Beane is the reason for the roster situation, however it's not due to incompetence, it's due to a planned restructuring), to perform as well as this team did, is quite remarkable. A couple bounces of the ball from a winning record with arguably (or inarguably, if you ask many) the least-talented roster in the NFL, at least on offense.

[Foxx]

3 minutes ago, CLTbills said:

The point is, this team is very close to being legitimate contenders. Given the roster situation, (and yes, I'm well aware that Beane is the reason for the roster situation, however it's not due to incompetence, it's due to a planned restructuring), to perform as well as this team did, is quite remarkable. A couple bounces of the ball from a winning record with arguably (or inarguably, if you ask many) the least-talented roster in the NFL, at least on offense.

they will never be legitimate contenders until McCoach can get consistent play week in and week out. against the Ravens, Packers, Colts, Bears and probably even the Chargers game, we were not ready to play a NFL game. that's 4/5 of a 16 game schedule or 25%. i do think he can motivate the guys to play well and at times over their heads. but to not acknowledge that there are troubling warning signs that he may not have 'it', is simply blind homerism.

 

my biggest concern is that he may not be the right guy to properly develop Allen.

[mannc]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

What you're talking about, in statistical terms, is called a "type 1" vs a "type 2" error.  In a "type 1" error, you have a true hypothesis and you inaccurately reject it.  In a "type 2" error, you have a false hypothesis and you inaccurately fail to reject it.  By analogy, in football a "type 1" error would be firing a coach or moving on from a QB who should have been given more time; a "type 2" error would be retaining a coach or a key player who should have been rejected.

 

Your idea is that "type 2" errors are more common than "type 1" errors.  I'm not sure that's actually true.  Part of the problem is that the results of a "type 2" error can be easily seen - the team doesn't improve, doesn't win more, doesn't contend for playoffs.  But a "type 1" error is harder to detect in sports, because the situation the coach or player moves into is different, and you don't get a "do over" with the same team, different choice.

 

A few examples of what may have been "type 1" errors would include Andy Reid in Philly (he moved to the Chiefs and instantly took them from 2-14 to 11-5, while Philly took 2 coaching changes and 5 years to return to relevance); Case Keenum in Minn (it's not clear Cousins is an improvement but he's swallowed their cap and they're locked in); Anthony Lynn in Buffalo (Chargers are 12-4, we're 6-10).

 

That's just off the top of my head, anyone else?

 

It is pretty clear that constant organizational churn is counterproductive.

 

 

I'm pleased that someone actually read my post.  My theory is that type 1 errors (sticking with a loser too long) are much more common than type 2 (firing too soon).  I think most teams err on the side of giving a coach at least one season too many to prove that he knows what he's doing.  I cited 4 examples and could have added more (Marvin Lewis, Jeff Fisher, among others).  I'm having trouble coming up with even one type 2 error, although you're correct that type 2 errors are a bit more difficult to prove.  I  think Andy Reid had simply worn out his welcome in Philly and, as it turns out, the move worked out pretty well for both the Eagles and the Chiefs.  Anthony Lynn isn't a good example because he was never really hired here and given a chance in the first place.

 

I fully expected a barrage of negative responses from folks here who are satisfied with a coach who takes over a .500 team and delivers 9-7 and 6-10 seasons.  As I've said many times, nobody has lower standards than Bills fans.  Under McDermott, the Bills are 10-16, after starting 5-2.  They have been blown out more regularly than any Bills teams since the mid-80s.  Elsewhere the Steelers are reportedly considering firing Mike Tomlin for missing the playoffs just once, after winning a Super Bowl and making the playoffs almost continuously for over a decade.  One of Tomlin's biggest problems:  He can't seem to beat Belichick (see below) and that's just not good enough in Pittsburgh. 

 

As has been true since 2000, the Bills' goal every year should be to dislodge NE from the top of the division and every move they make should be with that goal in mind.  Until that happens, the Bills will be a disappointment.  Maybe most troubling to me is that McDermott has been a deer in headlights against NE.  None of the four games vs. NE have been competitive and the last one was nothing short of pathetic.  Brady had maybe the worst game of his career and the Bills still trailed 24-6 in the fourth quarter.  It made me believe that McDermott will probably never be able to go toe-to-toe with Belichick, with or without Brady.  I realize that's a high standard, and that plenty of other coaches would fail that test too, but if the Bills want to join the elite teams in the league, it's just the way it is.

 

By they way, I'm amused at the folks who say "McDermott isn't getting fired this year, so why are you posting this crap?"  I fully recognize that he's not going anywhere this year and I acknowledge as much in the OP, but this is a discussion board and I reserve the right to suggest that perhaps the Pegulas are wrong about this.  ?   

       

[Trogdor]

3 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

It was not just the last game, but keep believing that if it makes you feel better.

 

They have gone for 4th downs over 18 times this year - top half of the league.  

 

That number has increased as the offense and Allen has settled in.  He has also had (like this week) a few 4th down attempts negated by penalty- like yesterday’s false start or we would be in the upper 3rd of the league.

 

I do not think he is conservative and I do not think he is aggressive- I think he was playing very much into the strength of his team last year and earlier this year - his defense.  Once Allen got got his feet wet and showed what he could do (about the last 4 weeks) and they started working things - he has switched focus and been more aggressive.

 

I would never call him Jauron 2.0 because that is just plain wrong.

This defense is a mirage. They are horrible in the red zone and the terrible job in the field position battle has limited the yards they give up. There were a few games, but they had more bad to mediocre games than good. While that's great about 4th downs, how often do they make conservative 3rd down calls. I feel like they constantly run plays short of the sticks on third.  I just don't think we will agree on this lol. 

[mannc]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly it is only Buffalo fans who even think this is a serious question. It isn't just Bill Cowher, but people around the NFL in general who think he has done extremely well to coach an under talented team to the playoffs last year and eek 6 wins out of this roster this year. I have spoken before about the guy I know who was a position coach in the league for a few years who now lives over here in the UK. He texted me last night saying "6 wins with that lot! McDermott is a genius!"

 

While I agree he has gotten everything out of the rosters he has had here I tend to push back a little bit on those views because what the people from the outside maybe don't see is that this is McDermott's tear down. He is part of the reason the team is so under talented. I still think overall he has done a decent job and I think you have seen the last 4 or 5 weeks him getting a bit more aggressive in his situational decisions as his confidence in Josh Allen grows. 

 

The question is whether he is a good coach for bad players or whether he can turn a more talented roster into a serious contender. That is the test for 2019 and as Badol put it the other day.... ***** just got real for this regime. 

 

As for firing those 3 last year. I do feel for Todd Bowles a little. That Jets team last year should have won 1 or 2 games maximum. He did a really good job with it in 2017. This year I think they have been too inconsistent and there have been weeks they have not played with any fire. I understand the firing but I blame the GM in New York much more than I blame Todd Bowles. Three years in a row he has been presented with terrible rosters to coach. 

 

I really don't care what someone like Cowher or many of the other talking heads say; I'd wager that they've watched zero Bills games this year. 

 

I agree that 2019 should be make-or-break for this regime, but I can already hear the excuses if we find ourselves in the same position this time next year: "The offensive line needs another year to gel, you can't put together a whole new offense in one season, we were depending on so many rookies this year, Brady's finally retiring so we'll kick Belichick's ass next year, it's only year three of the re-build, etc..."   

[Boatdrinks]

Given the offensive talent on the roster in McDs time as Bills HC, would anyone think an aggressive,push the ball down the field wide open game plan should be employed ? I’d guess that if it were, most games would be out of reach by the middle of the 2nd quarter. If the Bills go all out to give Allen some weapons and an improved Oline, then still run an ultra conservative gameplan, that should be questioned. The lack of talent probably dictates a conservative approach to stay in games. I’m not totally sold on McDermott, but his performance doesn’t seem to merit a firing here. Do comparisons with the Steelers , who’ve had Roethlisberger for Tomlin’s entire tenure really apply here ? This is a rebuild, not a takeover of a consistent winner and most successful teams in NFL history. I wasn’t sold on the whole tear down strategy, but I’m not yet convinced that it won’t work. 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[Rochesterfan]

3 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

This defense is a mirage. They are horrible in the red zone and the terrible job in the field position battle has limited the yards they give up. There were a few games, but they had more bad to mediocre games than good. While that's great about 4th downs, how often do they make conservative 3rd down calls. I feel like they constantly run plays short of the sticks on third.  I just don't think we will agree on this lol. 

 

I agree - we will not agree on this, but looking at the team last year and early part of this year which side of the ball was stronger offense or defense?

 

The defense may be a mirage based on everything you said, but it was still by far the better side of the ball and therefore McDermott played to that strength being more conservative.

 

Once Josh got more comfortable and they became more familiar with his athleticism- McDermott became more aggressive by going for it more on 4th and short.  

 

As I said before - to me McDermott is not super aggressive and he is not super conservative.  He will make some aggressive calls on 3rd and 4th downs and sometimes he will make the less aggressive calls, but if people can not see how much his choices have changed as the offense has come around then that is all on them.

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, mannc said:

I really don't care what someone like Cowher or many of the other talking heads say; I'd wager that they've watched zero Bills games this year. 

 

I agree that 2019 should be make-or-break for this regime, but I can already hear the excuses if we find ourselves in the same position this time next year: "The offensive line needs another year to gel, you can't put together a whole new offense in one season, we were depending on so many rookies this year, Brady's finally retiring so we'll kick Belichick's ass next year, it's only year three of the re-build, etc..."   

 

If they are below .500 next year they will at the very least go into 2020 on the hotseat. If 2019 is worse than this year they will be gone. I don't think it will be though.