Sunday/Monday Firings: Patience rarely pays off, and can be very costly.

[tcampbell104]

lets just wait and see how he coaches a talented team

[vorpma]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

The coaches who’ve been fired so far, or certainly will be tomorrow—Bowles, Koetter, and Joseph—all should have been fired last year, but were kept around in the interest of continuity.  As a result, those franchises wasted a year finding out what was already obvious to any sentient observer—that those guys were not good coaches.  Put the Browns in this category, too.  If they had fired Hue Jackson at the end of last season, as he so richly deserved, they probably would be preparing for a playoff game right now.

 

It seems clear that McDermott is going to survive Black Monday, but should he?  By giving him another season, are we wasting a year of Josh Allen’s cheap rookie contract?  Are we stunting his development by making him play for a coach who turtles any time he finds himself with a 14-point lead?  

Fire everybody now and if no SB in 2019 fire everybody again!

[FearLess Price]

4 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

Wait. I'm confused. When did we start hating McDermott? Pretty sure like 4 weeks ago, he was still one of the better young coaches in the NFL. What happened?

Nothing happened bro. McDerms job is safe. People gonna people tho.

[Wayne Cubed]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Honestly it is only Buffalo fans who even think this is a serious question. It isn't just Bill Cowher, but people around the NFL in general who think he has done extremely well to coach an under talented team to the playoffs last year and eek 6 wins out of this roster this year. I have spoken before about the guy I know who was a position coach in the league for a few years who now lives over here in the UK. He texted me last night saying "6 wins with that lot! McDermott is a genius!"

 

While I agree he has gotten everything out of the rosters he has had here I tend to push back a little bit on those views because what the people from the outside maybe don't see is that this is McDermott's tear down. He is part of the reason the team is so under talented. I still think overall he has done a decent job and I think you have seen the last 4 or 5 weeks him getting a bit more aggressive in his situational decisions as his confidence in Josh Allen grows. 

 

The question is whether he is a good coach for bad players or whether he can turn a more talented roster into a serious contender. That is the test for 2019 and as Badol put it the other day.... ***** just got real for this regime. 

 

As for firing those 3 last year. I do feel for Todd Bowles a little. That Jets team last year should have won 1 or 2 games maximum. He did a really good job with it in 2017. This year I think they have been too inconsistent and there have been weeks they have not played with any fire. I understand the firing but I blame the GM in New York much more than I blame Todd Bowles. Three years in a row he has been presented with terrible rosters to coach. 

 

 

I do agree with this for the most part but here's a counterpoint:  He won 6 games and made it to the playoffs with a defense that he's built.

 

The talent gap between the offensive and defensive sides of the ball is massive. I wouldn't really say he's been a good coach for bad players on the defensive side of the ball. That side of the ball has good players. Hughes, Poyer, Williams, Hyde, White, Milano, Alexander and to an extent Lawson are all good players. They don't really need "coaching up." The defensive side of the ball was good enough to keep them in 6 games, almost 7/8, this season. Is that really coaching up players and being a genius? Hard to know really. He hasn't shown he can coach up the offensive side of the ball, that much is certain. That group has preformed exactly as expected given the talent. So, is it really McDermott is a genius or they preformed as expected given the talent?

 

I don't think he should be fired or anything but I don't think it's wrong to question his coaching ability a bit. As Badol says, now the test comes when he <hopefully> gets an influx of talent on the offensive side of the ball to see what he can do.

[vorpma]

34 minutes ago, row_33 said:

 

It was a bad year, only diehard fans and chronic complainers stick around.

 

McD gets 3-5 years provided he doesn’t resign or do something insane to get himself fired.

I agree fire everybody now then fire everybody next year; it's temper tantrum time!

[GymShorts84]

2 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Allen and Edmunds will eventually cost Beane and McDermott their jobs.

 

The were the best players on the field today. Edmunds had a pick, then blew up a RB and jumped over him to get a sack. The Allen pick was high risk-high reward, but he’s already a competent starter. Edmunds is locked in at starter for the next decade. 

[CNYfan]

I think I like the direction we are headed.

 

No worries.

[Thriftygamer83]

Folks are still frustrated he stuck with Peterman; then wanted and got underachievers in Star and Trent when the offensive line needed bolstering.  Which meant going through and finding a rotation on the defensive line and defensive  end positions.  The limited salary cap space also did not help in the carry over from Whaley.  Would we have found younger ends and tackles as we’ve had to do and would they still be more talented than Star or Trent?  It’s hard telling but I’d say keep him for another year and see if you can offload Trent and Star for draft picks.  I would say as well known of the staff should be fired; specifically Daboll.  We saw what could happen yesterday when receivers actually caught balls, managed to play up to their clutch levels, and to be honest if they had not it means trading them off.  Croom did fine as well and is developing into a good second tightend in sets.  

Edited December 31, 2018 by Thriftygamer83

[Max Fischer]

You are out-of-touch If you believe McBeane could or should be fired.  

 

Internally, McBeane has 100% support from Owners and players. Few coaches or GMs can say that. 

 

Externally, McBeane are continually praised for rebuilding this organization.

 

They set out on a plan that meant a few years of hardship but managed to get the team to the playoffs anyway. They built an outstanding defense, the team got better the second half of the season, have their franchise QB and now have tons cap room for the next two years and 10 picks this year.

 

Not everything is great, there are many holes to fill but McBeane clearly have the team on the upswing and for the first time in many years there is a discernible blueprint to contend.  

Edited December 31, 2018 by Max Fischer

[CSBill]

14 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

I do agree with this for the most part but here's a counterpoint:  He won 6 games and made it to the playoffs with a defense that he's built.

 

The talent gap between the offensive and defensive sides of the ball is massive. I wouldn't really say he's been a good coach for bad players on the defensive side of the ball. That side of the ball has good players. Hughes, Poyer, Williams, Hyde, White, Milano, Alexander and to an extent Lawson are all good players. They don't really need "coaching up." The defensive side of the ball was good enough to keep them in 6 games, almost 7/8, this season. Is that really coaching up players and being a genius? Hard to know really. He hasn't shown he can coach up the offensive side of the ball, that much is certain. That group has preformed exactly as expected given the talent. So, is it really McDermott is a genius or they preformed as expected given the talent?

 

I don't think he should be fired or anything but I don't think it's wrong to question his coaching ability a bit. As Badol says, now the test comes when he <hopefully> gets an influx of talent on the offensive side of the ball to see what he can do.

 

Isn't this basically the defense that Rex, the Defensive genius, destroyed? The new Bills regime brought them back to where they should have been. That is good and to their credit. Rex did prove that bad coaching can screw up good talent.

 

The one area that I think the new regime has failed, is at QB. They mishandled it last year and totally blew it this year. The one redeeming thing they have done is drafting Allen, but they didn't set him up to succeed. Allen was put into the line-up prematurely and has miraculously survived the season despite the o-line. They were even fortunate enough to have him get injured, which forced them to deal with the ineptitude of Peterman. They got lucky when Barkley became available, and in the end, they did get two real mentors in here for Allen. But none of that was by design.

 

Nonetheless, yesterday showed they have someone to build around. So, the next two season will be the real judge of this new regime. I for one, hope it goes perfectly, whether, by design or luck, I don't care. Just win!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

Wait. I'm confused. When did we start hating McDermott? Pretty sure like 4 weeks ago, he was still one of the better young coaches in the NFL. What happened?

 

It's been justly commented that the "search" function here could use a bit of ketsup, but I can find "fire" and "McDermott" as a sentiment going back to early October.

 

[JMF2006]

Yup blow it all up 2 years in and bring Wrex back  

 

I seen the Phins are interested and we cannot let the competition in our division acquire such a football genius  

 

 

[CLTbills]

McDermott is going nowhere. He has done more with less than any coach in the league in the last two years. We're now out of salary cap purgatory. If we go spend $90 million, and THEN don't have reasonable success, we'll talk. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

He hasn't been perfect by any measure but I don't have any major problems with McDermott over the 2 seasons he's been head coach. I think he's had the team prepared and playing hard and pretty well max'ed out the talent on the roster week-to-week.  If anybody thinks this is a playoff or Super Bowl contending roster and they are under performing because of some lack of ability at the head coaching level then they haven't been watching much Bills football.  This team simply needs more talent to consistently compete against the better teams.  This year's record tells the story.  6-3 against non-playoff teams and 0-7 against teams making the post season.  The critical thing will be hitting in the draft and making smart use of all the money available for free agency.    

[richardb1952]

Go back and watch some Rex Ryan coached Bills teams.  Bills are light years ahead of where they were then.  Bills could have beaten HOU, Jets, Miami this year and been 9-7 with huge turnover on the OL, a new QB, and one WR from previous year.  At 9-7 they still would not have made the playoffs.   With over $90 mil in cap space and 10 draft picks, the needle is moving in the right direction.  Team is playing hard and I am enthused for next year and beyond.  McBeane duo is not the problem, they are the solution.  Can they get better, certainly.  They are growing as the team is growing.  Go Bills.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

There were a lot of red flags this season with McBeane

 

1) Multiple blowout losses

2) QB situation in general, and Nathan Peterman in particular. It still blows my mind that we went into week 1 with Nathan Peterman as our starter and Allen the only other QB on the roster. No excuse for that. 

3) Cap usage. The salary cap hell we are in is mostly McBeane's fault. 

4) Mediocre/bad FA signings and trades (kelvin benjamin) 

 

That being said, a 6-10 finish is about the best you could've hoped for with this roster. Next season is the make or break year IMO. 

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

He might be a good guy, a master motivator and have an eye for young defensive talent..

 

But he is not perfect.. He seems to favour a very conservative game plan...and  also struggles with some game day coaching decisions..,

 

I would bring him back in 2019 as I’m hoping he is still learning and Allen needs some stability after this years cluster..

 

Let’s see how they improve next year with the $90 mil and the draft picks... they had better or I suggest he will be in trouble for 2020..

 

Where do you guys come up with this conservative stuff?  Every single game he proves he’s not conservative.  I mean this is the most baffling false narrative I have ever seen on this board and keep seeing it repeated.  

 

For example, in this last game...a conservative coach isn’t throwing with under a minute in the half.  Yet with Allen, McD knows they can score fast and remains aggressive which Allen made a rookie bad pass for a pick 6.

 

Without trying, I could literally name countless examples through your the games where Allen started that showed he’s not conservative at all.  

 

I feel like this persists solely from the games where NP or DA played where the offense couldn’t do anything because those guys suck.  Because with a Allen, McD is no where near conservative.

Edited December 31, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

The coaches who’ve been fired so far, or certainly will be tomorrow—Bowles, Koetter, and Joseph—all should have been fired last year, but were kept around in the interest of continuity.  As a result, those franchises wasted a year finding out what was already obvious to any sentient observer—that those guys were not good coaches.  Put the Browns in this category, too.  If they had fired Hue Jackson at the end of last season, as he so richly deserved, they probably would be preparing for a playoff game right now.

 

It seems clear that McDermott is going to survive Black Monday, but should he?  By giving him another season, are we wasting a year of Josh Allen’s cheap rookie contract?  Are we stunting his development by making him play for a coach who turtles any time he finds himself with a 14-point lead?  

 

What you're talking about, in statistical terms, is called a "type 1" vs a "type 2" error.  In a "type 1" error, you have a true hypothesis and you inaccurately reject it.  In a "type 2" error, you have a false hypothesis and you inaccurately fail to reject it.  By analogy, in football a "type 1" error would be firing a coach or moving on from a QB who should have been given more time; a "type 2" error would be retaining a coach or a key player who should have been rejected.

 

Your idea is that "type 2" errors are more common than "type 1" errors.  I'm not sure that's actually true.  Part of the problem is that the results of a "type 2" error can be easily seen - the team doesn't improve, doesn't win more, doesn't contend for playoffs.  But a "type 1" error is harder to detect in sports, because the situation the coach or player moves into is different, and you don't get a "do over" with the same team, different choice.

 

A few examples of what may have been "type 1" errors would include Andy Reid in Philly (he moved to the Chiefs and instantly took them from 2-14 to 11-5, while Philly took 2 coaching changes and 5 years to return to relevance); Case Keenum in Minn (it's not clear Cousins is an improvement but he's swallowed their cap and they're locked in); Anthony Lynn in Buffalo (Chargers are 12-4, we're 6-10).

 

That's just off the top of my head, anyone else?

 

It is pretty clear that constant organizational churn is counterproductive.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Where do you guys come up with this conservative stuff?  Every single game he proves he’s not conservative.  I mean this is the most baffling false narrative I have ever seen on this board and keep seeing it repeated.  

 

For example, the latest of example of this last game...a conservative coach isn’t theowing with under a minute in the half.  Yet with Allen, McD knows they can score fast and remains aggressive which Allen made a rookie bad pass for a pick 6.

 

Without trying, I could literally name countless examples through your the games where Allen started that showed he’s not conservative at all.  

 

I feel like this persists solely from the games where NP or DA played where the offense couldn’t do anything because those guys suck.  Because with a Allen, McD is no where near conservative.

 

I think he coached conservative last year and at times early this year. The last few weeks as his comfort level with Josh Allen has grown he has clearly been more aggressive in my view. Gone for 4th and short (hell he went for a 4th and 2 and let Allen sneak a 4th and 2!!) thrown it at the end of halves (threw it against Detroit as well when we could have kept running guaranteed to make them use time outs and punted) and not gone for stupidly long FGs. How much that is a season with nothing on it and Hauschka's health concerns vs a genuine change of emphasis remains to be seen, but he has clearly been more aggressive. 

[Trogdor]

4 hours ago, ganesh said:

Can you provide examples.   The problem with game day coaching decisions is that  if the play worked, then the coach is a genius;  if it does not, then he is a scapegoat.

He doesn't know how to utilize time outs or the challenge? It's not play calls as much as clock management and personnel issues. There is still a very real discipline problem that has cost them but should have cleared up with all those process guys.