Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[Ronin]

On 12/27/2018 at 2:53 PM, Da webster guy said:

I agree with Alphadawg.  The kid passes the eye test. 

 

He has pocket presence, elusiveness, and a knack for making plays.   He isn't Drew Brees (who now has 70% completion percentage but had a 57% completion, 11 TDs and 15 picks in his 3rd season)  but he will get there.

 

The guys to worry about now are Beane, McD and Daboll.   The way they do their jobs in the next 8 months are critical for what happens in the next few years.   

 

Beane has to have an all pro offseason.  We already know Josh will be ready.

 

 

Unfortunately, the year to have had an all-pro offseason was this past one when the had two picks in each of rounds 1-3 on both days 1 & 2.  Everyone's raving about 10 picks in this year's draft, but the reality is that there's only one each in round 1-3 where the impact players originate.  Their track record on day 3 picks isn't good.  Milano's OK, somewhat overrated if you ask me.  Too hot/cold.  Johnson and Neal are OK but again, a roster full of that level of player ain't gonna cut it. Those two have 1 INT between them and don't even approach being great man-to-man covers right now, Milano has more PDs and INTs than both combined and he's a LB.  His problem is that he's cold one game and hot the next.  Also, his INTs have been of the "in the right place at the right time" type, not due to great m2m coverage.  Which is fine, just sayin'.  

 

Part of that "all pro offseason" will have to include players that are far more consistent than what they've gotten thus far.  

 

But I'll disagree in that McBeane's futures, as well as Allen's, whose prospects are going to be directly hinged to next season.  Next year everyone's going to be using as excuses that the rookies need two or three years to develop, as always, but McBeane won't have two or three more years, neither will Allen.  No coach deserved four or five seasons to put together a team that's competitive.  And frankly, last year they came on and said that they weren't rebuilding, then this year we find ourselves what, ... rebuilding.  That's not a good sign of the braintrust.  Levy pulled that nonsense when he came back on as GM, "the future is now" he boldly proclaimed, and stated that the team had enough talent to compete, then the following season he announced a rebuild.  All that says is that he was in over his head when he got here.   That's what it says about anyone doing that.  It says that you didn't have any realistic idea as to the talent on the team when you started.  That alone makes its own statement.  

 

Here's the thing about Allen, he has this powerful arm, but he's made fewer deep plays than any of his draft peers.  Of the plays he has made, two of the biggest, those two to Foster, were on broken coverages, NOT on Foster beating someone man-to-man with Allen dropping a perfect throw, quite the contrary.  Rather on broken coverages with Foster wide open, great throws both times, but the point being that plays like that aren't the types that competitive play can be built on/around.  I mean what kind of coach says, "OK, at some point they're going to let their guard down or make a mistake, and that's when we strike and score."  Who says that?  No one, pre or post game much less in the lockerroom.  

 

It's clear that the focus is on beating the other team at the point-of-attack and man-to-man as is the case with the skill positions in the passing game.  Yet those plays were not like that.  

 

But I digress.  The one things I"ve heard few mention is how horrific Allen's game is in the red zone where the deep ball is taken away.  

 

Either way, if he doesn't sort out the short-medium stuff next season there are already people that are going to be calling for moving on.  There are people in this thread that have mentioned "the eyeball test," which is short shrift for that any of the relevant data and factual information doesn't matter.  

 

The bottom line on Allen is simple.  We have a QB that can run the ball, perhaps better than any other in the history of the game.  However, at the same time anyone knowledgeable about both football history as well as the game today should realize that if that continues his career will be truncated severely at some point and even the coaching staff has implied as much.  A number of people that posters here like to proclaim as "experts" have also chimed in and said as much as if it's not common sense.  

 

We have a QB that in 10 games has thrown 7 TDs, two in extreme garbage time such as this past week vs. the Pats, rendering 1 TD every other game, 5 total passing TDs in 10 starts, coupled with 8 fumbles, fortunate that only 2 of those were lost, for 13 TOs.  That's nearly the rate that Kizer had last year that caused the Browns to be 0-16.  

 

That TO/Fumble rate has to drop.  

Allen's efficiency in the red zone has to skyrocket. 

His short-medium game absolutely must make an enormous leap next year.  

 

Rookies aren't going to be the difference.  McBeane chose to turn 5 of those 6 picks, two each in rounds 1 and 2  along with the first overall pick in round 3 in this past draft, into Allen and Edmunds.  Keep in mind, they could have had Edmunds with their first overall pick, which translates to the other four having been traded to get Allen, “their guy.” 

 

Anytime you “sell the farm” to get “your guy,” your guy had better work out.  That was a lot to trade away to get him, no reasonable person has argued contrarily.  That was the draft to get an “all pro draft” from, not this one which is laden with day-3 picks that are 50/50 for average players at best.  

 

The extra cap money ain’t gonna help.  The cap is going to nearly 200M this year and other teams are going to have more cap space too.  As always, there are never enough top players for the amount of overall cap space that’s available, and as always, we’re likely to overpay anyway, but that’s largely irrelevant.  Receivers aren’t going to correct Allen’s passing, Allen’s got to correct Allen’s passing.   Then we'll have to factor in which of the few really impact players in free-agency prefer to come to Buffalo over other destinations and of course the likelihood that we'll have to overpay to land them here. 

 

And frankly, I’ve seen enough of McBeane’s free-agent moves, that apart from the few that have lucked out for players that no one else wanted, to not get overly excited about their ability to find the better bargains on the market. 

 

We’ll see, it’s definitely going to be interesting, but I don’t think that an all-but-normal draft with only one pick in each of the first three rounds, and not drafting in the top 3-5 likely, is going to yield an all-pro result.  If we’re lucky two of those picks will be producing as impact players sometime during their rookie seasons.  If we're lucky McBeane don't pull a Whaley and make some even more ridiculous trade for another WR, a position for which it's never wise to trade-up for as such, in a desperate attempt to make Allen look better.  

 

If we’re not lucky we end up with another Zay Jones, As it now stands, McBeane’s picks in rounds 1-3 have yielded solid but hardly impact players.  Edmunds is good but young and will improve significantly over time, I expect an enormous leap next season from him and a player that will anchor the D for years to come.  Phillips and Dawkins are OK, let’s say solid, yet inconsistent both of ‘em, and far from impact players.  White’s very good most of the time but has ridiculous lapses, a very good pick nonetheless, but the best of theirs.  Jones was a wasted pick high in the 2^nd round, particularly with the far more obvious choice of Smith-Shuster still available. 

 

So we’ll see, just sayin’, I don’t think an all-pro offseason is possible to the extent that it’s necessary and given McBeane’s track record in free-agency. 

 

Next season will determine a number of things and IMO the futures of McBeane, both of ‘em, among them.  Much of that, if not all of it, is going to hang on Allen’s progression in the aforementioned ways.  Unfortunately for them and him, those are typically the most difficult things to correct.  They also have little if anything to do with arm-strength and running the ball.   Here's to hoping, but what we think will be irrelevant.  He'll have to do it or the calls for McBeane's heads and a new QB will be unavoidable, particularly the former.  

 

 

 

[BigDingus]

Yeah...this is why I don't see him ever becoming more than what he is.

He's been this way his entire career, so how will McDermott of all people be the one to change that (and at the most difficult level no less)?

This is the same HC that championed, then yanked around, Nathan Peterman to the point he became known as perhaps the worst QB in NFL history! The same coach who said Peterman was what was "best" for the team, then benched him half way through game 1 of the season...naming Allen the starter the following week claiming that he was now what was "best" for the team...

 

He also thought it was great to go into the season by cutting our 3rd QB & going with the most raw rookie QB of the draft group + a 5th round pick with 2 starts under his belt...no veterans whatsoever, leading us to panic grabbing Derek Anderson & thrusting him into the starting a month later (and on a week of practice) and eventually deseperately snatching up Matt Barkley out of a park to be our starter for a game.

This guy may be a great motivator, a great defensive coach, and have the players support, but he sure hasn't shown he has any idea wtf to do when it comes to managing NFL QB's, much less developing them.

[Ronin]

34 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

PFF and other stat based analyses still haven’t figured out a good qualitative measure of QB play. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn’t, but they tend to be too focused on their methodology and measures explaining quality of play rather than the quality of play being supported by stats.  I’ve seen enough from him to know that he has a legit shot at being a really good QB, and I’m not one who liked Allen and I’m not one to be easy on the Bills’ decision making at that position. 

 

Allen has had poor protection in many games, no running game to balance the offense in many games, and skill position players who haven’t elevated their games (with the exception of Foster).  He looks far more capable than Rosen or Darnold, but he really does need to look for the easier play than the big play and know when to take chances for the big play rather than the safe play.  He’s not a roller coaster of inconsistency like EJ and he isn’t a limited passer like Tyrod.  However, he doesn’t get into a rhythm as a passer and that is something I want to see him do at some point soon.  I understand that the limited talent around him makes that difficult.

 

On what basis do you say that Allen looks "far more capable than Darnold?"  Or Rosen for that matter, as a passer I mean.  I'm not seeing it.  Help me out. Allen's stats pretty much across the board are worse than either of them, Mayfield for sure, and even Jackson's.  Allen's terrible in the Red Zone.  Even using simple "non-PFF" stats like AYPA, Allen's worse.  TD/INT much less TD/To ratio is worse.  All of the short-medium game indicators are worse.  

 

Again, help me out.  

 

Also, what, specifically and mathematically, don't you like about PFF's methodology?   Whatever they're using they used for all QBs, not just Allen to slight us Bills fans.  I find it difficult to believe that they devised a system to slight Allen specifically while boosting the rest of the QBs.  That notion is ridiculous.  

 

You mention poor protection, but honestly, do Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, or even Mayfield have that much better protection?  I'm pretty atune to the NFL but I haven't read recently that the Ravens, much less the Browns, Cards, or Jets have great OLs.  

 

Allen has 2.7 sacks/start

Mayfield about 2.0

Jackson 2.3 

Darnold 2.3 

Rosen 3.3 

 

Arizona's offense is the only one that's worse than our across the board.  The Jets' isn't much better.  Cleveland's is better because of Mayfield mostly, and Chubb.  Baltimore's is better only because of Jackson, it was stagnant before he started, and yet, the criticism is  huge because it's because of Jackson's rushing.  Jackson's TD/INT ratio is 2/1, Allen's is 2/3.  Take Jackson's rushing away and the Raven O is right down there with the Jets, us, and Cards.  And yet he's winning no praise for his passing.  

 

Regardless, how the other four QBs from this draft perform is entirely irrelevant.  What matters is that Allen can correct his short-medium game.  Part of that are his woes in the red zone.  He's gotta be able to throw for more than 1 TD every other game (apart from extreme garbage-time TDs) and has to start lofting closer to 2/game.  That's an enormous leap.  That rate is significantly worse than the other QBs, except for possibly Rosen, yet none of them have notably better circumstances.  

 

Next season will be huge.  If Allen cannot begin pitching TDs to at least an average NFL QB level, which is at least 1-1/2-per-game, any calls questioning whether he's a franchise QB will be completely justifiable.  What we say doesn't matter a hill of beans.  

 

What does matter is that of all of the indicators, besides this elusive "eye test" that people cite, which is short shrift for he looks good playing the part but nothing more and certainly nothing concrete, that factor into whether a QB is a franchise QB in waiting, ALL need significant inprovement because as of now they're nowhere even close to being in the camp of that status.  

 

The only one that can change that is Allen himself with help from the coaching staff.  But based on this coaching staff's history with QBs, I think this will rest entirely on Allen.  

[Ronin]

18 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

Yeah...this is why I don't see him ever becoming more than what he is.

He's been this way his entire career, so how will McDermott of all people be the one to change that (and at the most difficult level no less)?

This is the same HC that championed, then yanked around, Nathan Peterman to the point he became known as perhaps the worst QB in NFL history! The same coach who said Peterman was what was "best" for the team, then benched him half way through game 1 of the season...naming Allen the starter the following week claiming that he was now what was "best" for the team...

 

He also thought it was great to go into the season by cutting our 3rd QB & going with the most raw rookie QB of the draft group + a 5th round pick with 2 starts under his belt...no veterans whatsoever, leading us to panic grabbing Derek Anderson & thrusting him into the starting a month later (and on a week of practice) and eventually deseperately snatching up Matt Barkley out of a park to be our starter for a game.

This guy may be a great motivator, a great defensive coach, and have the players support, but he sure hasn't shown he has any idea wtf to do when it comes to managing NFL QB's, much less developing them.

 

You got it.  

 

Check out my second response above.  Same thing basically.  

 

I hope that Allen shatters the odds against him, I really do, I mean who doesn't LOVE this kid!  He's got ALL the intangibles.  But that's neither here nor there.  

 

There are two certainties involved here.  

 

First, McBeane have necessarily tied, in Whaley-like fashion, their futures to Allen.  Whaley had nine-lives with the Pegulas, not sure they'll have the same.  

 

Secondly, Allen's going to need to be above average next year in order for the offense to put up numbers better than they were under Taylor, a known non-answer at QB.  That will involved, not lofting the deep-ball, it will involved taking his short-medium game from well-below-average to one that's well-above-average.  It's simple, if he can't do that, ... 

 

For the reasons that you cite, among others, not sure that's going to happen.  It's beating some long odds if it does.  

[VW82]

7 hours ago, Mango said:

 

 

God, this first paragraph is so infuriatingly pedantic. It drives me crazy, I don't understand the need to keep beating that drum. It literally does zero good. People have an understanding of what the words are, and they understand the intent of what the messaging is. Quibbling over vocabulary in regards to accuracy vs. precision does nothing. Boils down to you wanting to say, "JA is just as accurate as Aaron Rogers, he just isn't as precise". Cool, you win, but the larger point is still JA is not as good at throwing the football as Aaron Rogers no matter how you slice it. 

 

Now that I have that out of my system....

 

I don't think people mean to be asking Allen to check it down. The real issue is, he does not seem to do a good job with his pre and post snap reads. He is forcing low percentage throws when he does not need to because he does not see the field well. Just because he is capable of getting the ball to a spot hard and fast, does not mean he should. 

 

Cheers

 

Thank you for saying this though I will say there is legitimately a difference between the two. Josh is neither accurate nor precise, though I think he's at least trending in the right direction wrt his accuracy issues. 

 

You can't win with posters like him. He already has his mind made up that Allen is accurate, and so no amount of evidence will convince him otherwise. It can't be that maybe Josh has issues being accurate, and so instead it must be that no one else understands the terms. Whatever it takes to confirm bias.

 

If you put all his throws on the season on a dart board and did the same for other QBs (what PFF essentially did), Allen would both have a greater average distance from the bulls eye (accuracy) AND greater deviations from that average distance (precision). Fans get thrown off because they see him put it on the money on a difficult throw, but forget about all the times he forces the receiver to make a difficult catch by being off target or misses the target entirely (which up until the last couple of games happened a lot). So yes he's been accurate some of the time and definitely more so recently, but not when you consider all the throws on the year, and not when you compare him to the rest of the QBs. 

 

 

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

Thank you for saying this though I will say there is legitimately a difference between the two. Josh is neither accurate nor precise, though I think he's at least trending in the right direction wrt his accuracy issues. 

 

You can't win with posters like him. He already has his mind made up that Allen is accurate, and so no amount of evidence will convince him otherwise. It can't be that maybe Josh has issues being accurate, and so instead it must be that no one else understands the terms. Whatever it takes to confirm bias.

 

If you put all his throws on the season on a dart board and did the same for other QBs (what PFF essentially did), Allen would both have a greater average distance from the bulls eye (accuracy) AND greater deviations from that average distance (precision). Fans get thrown off because they see him put it on the money on a difficult throw, but forget about all the times he forces the receiver to make a difficult catch by being off target or misses the target entirely (which up until the last couple of games happened a lot). So yes he's been accurate some of the time and definitely more so recently, but not when you consider all the throws on the year, and not when you compare him to the rest of the QBs. 

 

 

Inaccuracy is far from Allen's biggest issue.  

 

What IS his biggest issue right now is reading defenses.  He leaves TONS of yards on the field because he fails to see an open man.  That's the single biggest thing I've noticed.  

 

The best QBs, franchise QBs, simply do not do that.  But that comes from properly pre and post reading defenses, which frankly, he's not good at.  

 

This is what plagues him in the Red Zone.  I think it's Football Outsiders that tracks "Average Yards to the Sticks" which is a measure of where the QB throws the ball in relation to where the 1st-down marker is.  Between that and Allen owning the longest "in the air" throw this season, and Allen ranks 1st in the former, we need to reconcile why his play otherwise isn't good.  Because he's clearly going deeper than everyone else.  So then why are his averages in terms of yards the worst in the league.  There has to be some reconciliation there.  

 

I noticed that some very good and prominent QBs are below zero on "Average Yards to the Sticks."  Brady's great at that.  That's because they read the D and see that they can get 15 yards with a dumpoff to a RB on a short sideline route rather than go OTM or elsewhere.  Allen's simply missing those, and other, open receivers and clearly failing to process the overall chances of getting the most yards on a play.  That's not good.  

 

Here's some insight, ... here are the Red Zone Ratings of the 1st-round QBs this season:  

 

Mayfield:  119  (he leads the league)  

Darnold:  95.6

Rosen:  94.5

Jackson:  89.9 

Allen:  81.3

 

Allen is ranked ahead of only 3 starters in the entire league in the red zone for rating.  Two of those are Bortles and Keenum.  

 

That's a problem.  He's the only one of the 2018 class that seems to have difficulty throwing TDs in the red zone.  Again, that short-medium game.  

 

It is what it is.  Hope he fixes it, post-haste.  

Edited December 29, 2018 by TaskersGhost

[LSHMEAB]

7 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Inaccuracy is far from Allen's biggest issue.  

 

What IS his biggest issue right now is reading defenses.  He leaves TONS of yards on the field because he fails to see an open man.  That's the single biggest thing I've noticed.  

 

The best QBs, franchise QBs, simply do not do that.  But that comes from properly pre and post reading defenses, which frankly, he's not good at.  

 

This is what plagues him in the Red Zone.  I think it's Football Outsiders that tracks "Average Yards to the Sticks" which is a measure of where the QB throws the ball in relation to where the 1st-down marker is.  Between that and Allen owning the longest "in the air" throw this season, and Allen ranks 1st in the former, we need to reconcile why his play otherwise isn't good.  Because he's clearly going deeper than everyone else.  So then why are his averages in terms of yards the worst in the league.  There has to be some reconciliation there.  

 

I noticed that some very good and prominent QBs are below zero on "Average Yards to the Sticks."  Brady's great at that.  That's because they read the D and see that they can get 15 yards with a dumpoff to a RB on a short sideline route rather than go OTM or elsewhere.  Allen's simply missing those, and other, open receivers and clearly failing to process the overall chances of getting the most yards on a play.  That's not good.  

 

Here's some insight, ... here are the Red Zone Ratings of the 1st-round QBs this season:  

 

Mayfield:  119  (he leads the league)  

Darnold:  95.6

Rosen:  94.5

Jackson:  89.9 

Allen:  81.3

 

Allen is ranked ahead of only 3 starters in the entire league in the red zone for rating.  Two of those are Bortles and Keenum.  

 

That's a problem.  He's the only one of the 2018 class that seems to have difficulty throwing TDs in the red zone.  Again, that short-medium game.  

 

It is what it is.  Hope he fixes it, post-haste.  

This is what I've been saying all along. Josh's problem is not accuracy as much as it is finding the correct target. The hope is that better recognition will come with experience.

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

Thank you for saying this though I will say there is legitimately a difference between the two. Josh is neither accurate nor precise, though I think he's at least trending in the right direction wrt his accuracy issues. 

 

You can't win with posters like him. He already has his mind made up that Allen is accurate, and so no amount of evidence will convince him otherwise. It can't be that maybe Josh has issues being accurate, and so instead it must be that no one else understands the terms. Whatever it takes to confirm bias.

 

If you put all his throws on the season on a dart board and did the same for other QBs (what PFF essentially did), Allen would both have a greater average distance from the bulls eye (accuracy) AND greater deviations from that average distance (precision). Fans get thrown off because they see him put it on the money on a difficult throw, but forget about all the times he forces the receiver to make a difficult catch by being off target or misses the target entirely (which up until the last couple of games happened a lot). So yes he's been accurate some of the time and definitely more so recently, but not when you consider all the throws on the year, and not when you compare him to the rest of the QBs. 

 

 

You don't like it when people like me who have an understanding of terms such as accuracy and precision try to help you out.  Don't know why, but you don't.

 

When Allen misses guys by a mile, he is both inaccurate and imprecise.  As would any QB.  But that is rarely the case.  He could stand to be more precise for sure.

 

You are not the only one who confuses these, but it is an important distinction.  QBs have to be accurate or they would never make it to an NFL level.  The great ones have high precision to go with accuracy.   I read the article and it was intriguing, but I would have loved to sit with the guys doing their analysis and see how much we agreed on what would constitute a dropped pass, or what they considered tight coverage as that is one of the measurable they used.  And so on.

 

I'm sure this will infuriate you more, and I'm sorry if it does, but another statistical term that is useful in this whole Allen dialog is confirmation bias.  I think that is at play with many when talking about Allen.  They decided he will not work out in the NFL, and thus any data that tends to support that view gets accepted without any sort of critical analysis because it confirms what you want to believe.  I review a ton of scientific papers and it's the biggest reason for rejection.  And the second is improper use of statistics.

 

Allen is certainly making progress but he has a ways to go as a passer.  And, again, we can debunk the idea that accuracy (really precision) is innate and cannot be improved with practice.  Any physical ability can be improved by correct repetition.  Recall that it isn't practice that makes perfect, it's that perfect practice makes perfect.  He can continue to work on things, work on film study, hopefully get some more talent around him.  And we'll see where it takes him.  He's a rookie.  He has things to learn and things to

improve.  Give him time to do so before throwing him to the sharks.

[CincyBillsFan]

31 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I'm sure this will infuriate you more, and I'm sorry if it does, but another statistical term that is useful in this whole Allen dialog is confirmation bias.  I think that is at play with many when talking about Allen.  They decided he will not work out in the NFL, and thus any data that tends to support that view gets accepted without any sort of critical analysis because it confirms what you want to believe.  I review a ton of scientific papers and it's the biggest reason for rejection.  And the second is improper use of statistics.

 

 

Bingo.  Retired R&D guy here and this is what I'm seeing also. 

 

I would also add that the enormous variability inherent in the "measurements" being made by these analytics guys with respect to football almost render conventional statistical analysis mote. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/27/2018 at 10:32 AM, 17years&waiting said:

I'd be curious how many of these "contested" passes are the WR's not making plays on the ball, and are not necessarily Allen's fault.  It's hard to tell how they decide whether or not the pass was the QB's fault, but in my mind, I haven't seen that many passes that are Allen's fault.

 

Take for instance the Foster play in the sun against the Patriots: how does that count for PFF?  It's technically not a drop, because I don't think Foster touched it, but it was also maybe the best deep pass I've seen Allen throw this year.  Does it count as "inaccurate" in this rating system?

 

Well, that's essentially my "beef" with the PFF analytics.  That's where they cross over from statistics, to subjective component metrics.  They are making educated guesses about the play call, the routes the receivers were supposed to run and how they were supposed to run it, and then judging whether or not the pass is "accurate" against their educated guess.

We had an example of the pitfalls here in an early game.  I think it was a wheel route by DiMarco, a number here said Allen made a bad throw.  I felt it was a bad route and a decent throw actually, just not to where DiMarco actually was vs where I think he was supposed to be.  A lot of folks here disagreed.   I made a paste-up of the route DiMarco ran vs. what I felt was the same wheel route on the opposite side of the field run by Zay Jones later in the same game, where Allen did make a poor throw and Zay made a good adjustment to haul it in.  Right there you see that without access to the play-calling and information about how the routes are supposed to be run against different defensive looks, those two throws could be scored 4 different ways (both accurate, first accurate second inaccurate, first inaccurate second accurate because catch, both inaccurate) and in fact were by folks here.

 

That's why OLmen hate PFF and I don't think much of their OL grades - they're grading the OL according to their idea of who has what assignment, but they really don't know.  It's a higher probability to figure out what the routes are supposed to be but even then, there are nuances in how they're supposed to be run we don't know.

I do see passes that I think are Allen's fault, poor throws, but there is certainly subjectivity.  Did the WR slip or get jammed a bit getting off the line?  Was he running slower than in practice for some reason?  etc etc.

[Ayjent]

3 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

On what basis do you say that Allen looks "far more capable than Darnold?"  Or Rosen for that matter, as a passer I mean.  I'm not seeing it.  Help me out. Allen's stats pretty much across the board are worse than either of them, Mayfield for sure, and even Jackson's.  Allen's terrible in the Red Zone.  Even using simple "non-PFF" stats like AYPA, Allen's worse.  TD/INT much less TD/To ratio is worse.  All of the short-medium game indicators are worse.  

 

Again, help me out.  

 

Also, what, specifically and mathematically, don't you like about PFF's methodology?   Whatever they're using they used for all QBs, not just Allen to slight us Bills fans.  I find it difficult to believe that they devised a system to slight Allen specifically while boosting the rest of the QBs.  That notion is ridiculous.  

 

You mention poor protection, but honestly, do Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, or even Mayfield have that much better protection?  I'm pretty atune to the NFL but I haven't read recently that the Ravens, much less the Browns, Cards, or Jets have great OLs.  

 

Allen has 2.7 sacks/start

Mayfield about 2.0

Jackson 2.3 

Darnold 2.3 

Rosen 3.3 

 

Arizona's offense is the only one that's worse than our across the board.  The Jets' isn't much better.  Cleveland's is better because of Mayfield mostly, and Chubb.  Baltimore's is better only because of Jackson, it was stagnant before he started, and yet, the criticism is  huge because it's because of Jackson's rushing.  Jackson's TD/INT ratio is 2/1, Allen's is 2/3.  Take Jackson's rushing away and the Raven O is right down there with the Jets, us, and Cards.  And yet he's winning no praise for his passing.  

 

Regardless, how the other four QBs from this draft perform is entirely irrelevant.  What matters is that Allen can correct his short-medium game.  Part of that are his woes in the red zone.  He's gotta be able to throw for more than 1 TD every other game (apart from extreme garbage-time TDs) and has to start lofting closer to 2/game.  That's an enormous leap.  That rate is significantly worse than the other QBs, except for possibly Rosen, yet none of them have notably better circumstances.  

 

Next season will be huge.  If Allen cannot begin pitching TDs to at least an average NFL QB level, which is at least 1-1/2-per-game, any calls questioning whether he's a franchise QB will be completely justifiable.  What we say doesn't matter a hill of beans.  

 

What does matter is that of all of the indicators, besides this elusive "eye test" that people cite, which is short shrift for he looks good playing the part but nothing more and certainly nothing concrete, that factor into whether a QB is a franchise QB in waiting, ALL need significant inprovement because as of now they're nowhere even close to being in the camp of that status.  

 

The only one that can change that is Allen himself with help from the coaching staff.  But based on this coaching staff's history with QBs, I think this will rest entirely on Allen.  

Look I’m not going to break down the statistics, or look them up because I’m sure I can find them to support what I’m saying with respect  Allen being better compared to Darnold and Rosen.  Do I think Allen is perfect?  Not even close, and he has a long way to go to be a long term starter.  I see a guy with the physical tools, which no one doubted, but I’ve also seen him making a ton of progress on things that looked pretty bad at the start of the season (e.g., questionable pocket presence that has gotten better, knowing where to go with the ball more frequently, extending plays) and how he is displaying leadership and the team around him has responded.   He doesn’t played scared and the game doesn’t seem too big.  His passing stats aren’t that impressive, but he is pushing the ball downfield and making some back shoulder throws that are well placed just not completed.  

 

Ive watched Darnold and Rosen and I just don’t see the same level of talent and I would’ve been happier with either guy over Allen when the draft occurred - I see guys that are hitting the easier plays more consistently with them but I don’t see a whole lot of growth potential and I wonder if those two have a whole lot more to offer in the progression of their level of play.  And there is a valid concern Allen may always be this way too - elite physical talent that just never reaches the ultimate potential.  But the leadership, ballsiness, progress and physical talent make me a lot more comfortable about Allen than the story PFF statistics tell. I liked Tyrod, but the stats always said he was a better QB than he was, because he didn’t turn it over and had a pretty good completion percentage - Bill Barnwell always liked him because of his stats.  But we all knew the Bills needed to try to upgrade - I don’t think they needed to get rid of him because they had no known commodity at the position,  but I digress. 

 

Allen after coming back seemed way more comfortable and in control of the offense and seemed to be making the right play most of the time, except for trying to make too much happen on occasion.  

 

As for the the red zone.  The most effective red zone offense has been Allen running, and that is a big part of the story.  I think that’s a dangerous way to play your starting QB, but his running ability  is simply the most effective red zone  weapon.  The other part of the story is a poor screen game, no real running ability with the RBs, and inconsistent receiving  targets that aren’t really good at making plays in tight areas of the field - the Bills have had a lot of end zone drops and very few nice catches in the end zone.  Allen may be missing targets there, but whose the playmaker he should go to?  I’m not sure about Daboll either.  

[VW82]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

You don't like it when people like me who have an understanding of terms such as accuracy and precision try to help you out.  Don't know why, but you don't.

 

When Allen misses guys by a mile, he is both inaccurate and imprecise.  As would any QB.  But that is rarely the case.  He could stand to be more precise for sure.

 

You are not the only one who confuses these, but it is an important distinction.  QBs have to be accurate or they would never make it to an NFL level.  The great ones have high precision to go with accuracy.   I read the article and it was intriguing, but I would have loved to sit with the guys doing their analysis and see how much we agreed on what would constitute a dropped pass, or what they considered tight coverage as that is one of the measurable they used.  And so on.

 

I'm sure this will infuriate you more, and I'm sorry if it does, but another statistical term that is useful in this whole Allen dialog is confirmation bias.  I think that is at play with many when talking about Allen.  They decided he will not work out in the NFL, and thus any data that tends to support that view gets accepted without any sort of critical analysis because it confirms what you want to believe.  I review a ton of scientific papers and it's the biggest reason for rejection.  And the second is improper use of statistics.

 

Allen is certainly making progress but he has a ways to go as a passer.  And, again, we can debunk the idea that accuracy (really precision) is innate and cannot be improved with practice.  Any physical ability can be improved by correct repetition.  Recall that it isn't practice that makes perfect, it's that perfect practice makes perfect.  He can continue to work on things, work on film study, hopefully get some more talent around him.  And we'll see where it takes him.  He's a rookie.  He has things to learn and things to

improve.  Give him time to do so before throwing him to the sharks.

 

I'm more than fine with posters, including yourself, questioning what I or anyone else writes/posts, including articles from places like PFF. This is a public online forum. It's meant for this kind of discussion. The part I find frustrating is even after your point (i.e. my alleged confusion of the terms accuracy and precision) is addressed in painstaking detail, including definitions, examples, and diagrams to show you I (and many others here) do in fact have a full understanding of their meanings, you continue to pretend as though they are being confused, and you do it in a condescending and dismissive manner meant to insult rather than inform. I feel like I'm talking to a wall here. 

 

I disagree that Allen rarely misses the bulls eye by a lot (though again, he's been much better in recent weeks). The vast majority of people who are paid to write about football for a living, people who are generally not involved with the Bills in any capacity and would presumably be unlikely to be biased one way or the other, seem to agree with me. You, a strident fan who strongly supports Allen, believe that all these unrelated, seemingly objective third parties are in fact biased against him or just don't understand the terms they are using. Everyone else is an idiot but you? You are exhibiting far more tell tale signs of cognitive bias than I my friend. Perhaps you might at least point us toward the smoking gun which suggests PFF (or I FTM) is confusing the terms to the point of needing to throw out the baby with the bath water as you seem to be suggesting. 

 

Again, feel free to question whether the analysis done by PFF would meet the standards of a scientific journal. Perhaps it wouldn't, but you don't know that and neither do I. Either way, it doesn't mean their findings are completely useless, especially when you consider them alongside all the other available quantitative and qualitative evidence (most of which points to Josh being inaccurate).    

 

To be clear, I have not decided that Allen will fail, and I don't believe his accuracy issues are entirely innate and/or cannot be fixed. I don't even believe they're his biggest issue. Again, we've already seen some improvement in that regard. I read this forum weekly and I just don't find there are that many here with that alleged POV; rather, it would seem to be a small (and loud) minority that gave up right away with no hope of redemption, hellbent on convincing the rest of us. Most are now somewhere between cautiously optimistic (me) and having full on blind faith that Allen will become a star, which makes sense because this is Two Bills Drive after all. 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2018 by VW82

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/27/2018 at 11:43 AM, GunnerBill said:

I am quoting the two specific bits of your post I am responding directly to. Firstly, in respect of point 3 - it wasn't Josh Allen's accuracy that was much worse to Kelvin Benjamin - it was his completion percentage. At times the PFF article distinguishes between completion percentage and accuracy and at other times it conflates the two. Josh Allen has still this season suffered from the same issue - that I termed 'natural' inaccuracy' - that he suffered from in college. Throws where there is no obvious technical reason for an inaccurate pass and yet the pass is inaccurate in any event. What has become evident is that it happens less frequently when he is comfortable and in rhythm - which is probably normal for all QBs - but it is not as easy as Josh is accurate in a clean pocket and inaccurate under pressure. It is something less obviously tangible than that.

(......)
Ultimately who ends up with supremacy over the AFCE for the next decade probably comes down to which of those young Quarterbacks ends up the better and, to a lesser extent, how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them - from defense, to weapons, to protection and to coaching.  

 

Great post, Gunner. 

 

About the "natural inaccuracy": we had some discussion about this around the draft as I saw the same thing.  It's worth noting that Jordan Palmer claims he can see a basis for the inaccuracy in Josh Allen's lower body mechanics and that it could be improved (something about over-striding or the like).  I do think the Bills have been drilling Allen on short throws and dump offs and they have, for the most part, been more accurate this season than they were at the combine or his pro day.

I would give a higher weight to "how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them" in the "supremacy" question.  I think that is the greater question and which QB ends up to be the better (as a QB) is the lesser question (given a certain floor of performance)

 

Which brings me to another point worth making.  We as Bills fans tend to write and speak as though drafting a prize 1st round QB is all that's needed for success.

It's rare that two or more QB drafted in the 1st round both become very good QB.  2017 and 2016 may have been jackpot years with Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Goff, and Wentz.

Does that represent a change, based on better scouting?  Or the exceptions that prove the rule of Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Manziel etc? 

 

The point is, the odds on a specific QB becoming "magical Franchise man" are only about 50% overall, even in the 1st round.  We have to be willing to take our shots, more than one shot may be needed.  Hopefully not the 3 shots CLE put into the position over the last 6 years, but still.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

Inaccuracy is far from Allen's biggest issue.  

 

What IS his biggest issue right now is reading defenses.  He leaves TONS of yards on the field because he fails to see an open man.  That's the single biggest thing I've noticed.  

 

The best QBs, franchise QBs, simply do not do that.  But that comes from properly pre and post reading defenses, which frankly, he's not good at.

 

Most rookies aren't good at that.  It's one reason why a rookie QB's best friend is an effective run game.  And it's harder for a rookie when the OL is questionable as well.  Part of this comes down to how well the coaches succeed in breaking the play down, linking 1 or 2 simple defensive reads to 2 alternative decisions.  See this -> throw here or here.  See that -> throw there or there.  My gestalt is that it may not have been a strength of our OC or QB coaching staff.  It may be something Anderson and/or Barkley have helped Allen with.

 

The point you make about red zone issues is interesting.  I've noted that Allen historically has struggled with accuracy in the short/medium passing game but I never (duh!) made the connection to the red zone as, essentially, a forced short/medium passing game.

[VW82]

On 12/27/2018 at 8:32 AM, 17years&waiting said:

I'd be curious how many of these "contested" passes are the WR's not making plays on the ball, and are not necessarily Allen's fault.  It's hard to tell how they decide whether or not the pass was the QB's fault, but in my mind, I haven't seen that many passes that are Allen's fault.

 

Take for instance the Foster play in the sun against the Patriots: how does that count for PFF?  It's technically not a drop, because I don't think Foster touched it, but it was also maybe the best deep pass I've seen Allen throw this year.  Does it count as "inaccurate" in this rating system?

 

This is interesting to me. On the one hand, if Foster doesn't lose it in the sun he likely adjusts his route and probably makes the catch. On the other, the ball landed about two yards inside of Foster, so claiming it was his best deep ball of the year isn't doing Allen any favors. 

 

I'm tempted to give the PFF guys some benefit of the doubt. They have arguably the best publicly available football analytics site going. It's their job to break down tape and rate players, and be as objective as possible when doing so. I would assume they're applying the same methodology across the board for all QBs, so if that Foster miss was deemed to be on Allen then the same conclusion would probably be made for other QBs in all other similar circumstances.  

 

My guess is they put that on Foster for the purposes of adjcomp%. The pass wasn't the most accurate deep ball, but it was more than good enough.

 

Edited December 29, 2018 by VW82

[GreggTX]

I can't think of any NFL QB that has ever fixed an inaccurate arm. I hate to say it, but it looks like a swing and a big miss for Beane on both of his 1st round picks in his 1st draft. You can't build a champion if you keep missing on 1st rounders and Beane has already done it twice. I'm afraid this rebuild is on hold until we find a QB and a MLB, but mostly a QB. It's sad because I like this kid, but I liked EJ too and that didn't make any difference either. We need to draft another QB this year, but will McBeane admit that they missed and pull the trigger or wait until year 3 and get fired as the Pegulas are forced to clean house again?

 

You're either born with that natural accuracy or you're not. Josh wasn't, unfortunately.

Edited December 29, 2018 by GreggTX

[BananaB]

3 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I can't think of any NFL QB that has ever fixed an inaccurate arm. I hate to say it, but it looks like a swing and a big miss for Beane on both of his 1st round picks in his 1st draft. You can't build a champion if you keep missing on 1st rounders and Beane has already done it twice. I'm afraid this rebuild is on hold until we find a QB and a MLB, but mostly a QB. It's sad because I like this kid, but I liked EJ too and that didn't make any difference either. We need to draft another QB this year, but will McBeane admit that they missed and pull the trigger or wait until year 3 and get fired as the Pegulas are forced to clean house again?

 

You're either born with that natural accuracy or you're not. Josh wasn't, unfortunately.

 

I think big factor in accuracy that a lot of people don’t consider is relaxation.   Obviously a QBs surroundings would effect that during the game. 

 

Allen has played behind a weak line in college with little talent at WR and he is now doing the same in the NFL. Some of his best throws this season, the wow throws, came when he has looked pretty comfortable in the pocket. A lot of factors goes into the low completion percentage, I think that is what most of this thread is about. Allen, Oline and WRs all were a part of that stat. 

 

All most of us wanted was for him to show improvement from the start of the season to the end. Since  his return a lot will agree he made a fair size jump but still got along way to go. He’s carried this offense on his back the past few weeks. He also gets a lot of praise from coaches and players. Talent wise Allen’s supporting cast is probably the worst in football, it also gotta be close to the least experienced group in the NFL. Not the best situation for a rookie QB. McDermot got his D, it’s time to spend some money and draft picks to help Allen. Build him  a solid Oline  for once in his football career and then we will really see if he has an accuracy problem. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by BananaB

[peterpan]

 

"In addition to adjusted completion percentage, one of our more advanced quarterback statistics at PFF involved a process in which we chart every throw for accuracy, allowing us to further break down a QBs ball placement beyond completion percentage to see who’s placing the ball accurately – hitting receivers in stride, leading them away from defenders – compared to passers who are getting catchable balls to their playmakers – making a receiver reach back across his body to catch a ball, taking away YAC opportunities – and those who are throwing uncatchable balls"

 

I often bring this up with QBs as it seems fans don't ever.bring this into consideration when talking about accuracy.  In recent weeks fans seem to blame our WRs a lot when in my.opinion Allen's passes are just too off Target to be caught reliably. 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

I can't think of any NFL QB that has ever fixed an inaccurate arm. I hate to say it, but it looks like a swing and a big miss for Beane on both of his 1st round picks in his 1st draft. You can't build a champion if you keep missing on 1st rounders and Beane has already done it twice. I'm afraid this rebuild is on hold until we find a QB and a MLB, but mostly a QB. It's sad because I like this kid, but I liked EJ too and that didn't make any difference either. We need to draft another QB this year, but will McBeane admit that they missed and pull the trigger or wait until year 3 and get fired as the Pegulas are forced to clean house again?

 

You're either born with that natural accuracy or you're not. Josh wasn't, unfortunately.

 

Even I was ready to write Josh off as you are, I am not because it is patently ridiculous to do so at this stage, this is an awful QB class. I wouldn't take any of these guys in the first round and I wouldn't have taken Herbert there either even if he had declared. 

 

Taking a QB this year is a wasted pick. I'd roll with Josh and Matt Barkley and pick up a camp arm. In 2020 they absolutely should draft a Quarterback - whether that is a mid round developmental guy or someone they see as a potential franchise changer depends on how Josh plays. 

[Billsfan1972]

I've read most of the replies and obvious that there are some who have hated Allen from day 1 and regardless of what he does will deride him.  Have they watched the other rookies play and noted All22 analysis and whether they miss open receivers or make bad decisions?  Doubt it, but Allen is under a microscope.

 

A perfect example that was brought up was the Detroit game.  Stafford graded better throwing dinks & dunks and having receivers winning 1 on 1 battles.  However anyone who watched the game knows Allen was much better.

 

Compare him to Lamar Jackson, who was not great vs. LA, but threw a nice TD, which should have been a 25 yard pass (missed tackles turned it into a 70 yard TD).  I see way more bad passes from Lamar, but according to PFF a better rating.

 

Has Allen thrown a shovel pass for a big gain?

 

The stats say so little as running is not included.  The redzone stat doesn't account for Allen's running, which has been crucial.  The Bills receivers are incapable of winning battles or finding open space in tight areas too.  Shady his best receiver has been nicked up too and that has affected Allen's rating.

 

And playcalling is terrible too.

 

Allen has a lot to learn and needs to have some simpler plays designed that are quick hits right at the snap.

 

Wonder how much the narrative & #'s change if Allen completes just two passes: the pass to Clay vs. Miami (100% on Clay) and that bomb to Foster last week.

 

 

      

Edited December 29, 2018 by Billsfan1972