Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BillsFan1988 said:

Were not far off as u think i believe the Bears were a 6-10 team last yr. Yes they had massive turnover this offseason . Which i fully expect the Bills to do. 

 

Now there not completely the same situations but they are very similar. Lets not nitpick where the holes were on both teams. Im basically pointing out that they had a top teir D as well as we do. Also had raw but super talented rookie QBs with basically no weapons at the skill positions.

 

There are some parallels in the Bears situation, I do not deny. However, the Bills are not going to fire their Head Coach and offensive coordinator, and there is even more work to be done on the roster. Having an offensive line already in place was a big help to the Bears in their turnaround. Our situation is arguably more akin to the Rams the year before where the offensive cupboard was almost totally bare around their rookie QB and a talented running back.... except Gurley is a lot younger than Shady.

[NoSaint]

20 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

His completion percentage will go up when we have guys who can get open and he doesn’t have to throw the ball away. The fact that he can routinely scramble for 4-5 seconds and still have nobody open is a glaring indictment of the receivers. I’ve seen plenty of QBs I would call inaccurate, Josh is not one of them. Sucks that the narrative continues based solely on stats. 

 

If I had to rank the root causes of his incompletions it would go something like this:

 

1. Pass intentionally thrown away

2. Receiver failed to make a play

3. Pass defended

4. Pass misfired

5. Miscommunication 

 

You do understand that PFF is attemptinfto normalize across the league to take things like throwaways and bad receiver play out of the stat line? Obviously impossible to do perfectly but seems meaningful that in all metrics across all types of throws he’s demonstrating similarly low rankings.

[dubs]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I see him being inaccurate, I'm afraid. Fairly consistently. A lot of good throws and then some bad ones.

 

And yeah, throwing deeper passes can make an impact, but in PFF's breakdown they adjusted for depth and found he was consistently inaccurate at all levels.

 

But maybe it'll be corrected. He got more accurate during the process leading up to the draft as he worked with Palmer and cleaned up his mechanics. Then as often happens when you're playing and not sitting, his mechanics seemed to me to come unwound again. I think his footwork has degraded, and that it wouldn't have happened if he'd sat this year as Mahomes did. Hopefully he can clean it up again and this time get it set into muscle memory before the season starts. I'm cheering for him to do so.

 

 

 

Yeah, nicely put.

 

Yeah, I just don’t see it the same way. When Josh Allen makes a good read, steps up and delivers, he usually delivers a strike that’s right on the money. I think the issue is more about having the game slow down for him a bit so he can be more consistent. That’s certainly an issue that needs to be corrected and it’s not a given that he will be able to, but I think accuracy is an inaccurate way of describing the thing Josh Allen needs to improve. 

Edited December 28, 2018 by dubs

[oldmanfan]

12 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

Yeah, I just don’t see it the same way. When Josh Allen makes a good read, steps up and delivers, he usually delivers a strike that’s right on the money. I think the issue is more about having the game slow down for him a bit so he can be more consistent. That’s certainly an issue that needs to be corrected and it’s not a given that he will be able to, but I think accuracy is an inaccurate way of describing the thing Josh Allen needs to improve. 

spot on

[Lenigmusx]

I didn’t realize how valid this comparison was until I dug a little. Take a look at Steve Young’s career stats. Especially 1985 and 1986. I have a feeling that this is the way Josh Allen will trend. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounSt00.htm

 

I think Allen is like a bigger, more durable and stronger armed Steve Young. 

Edited December 28, 2018 by Lenigmusx

[Troll Toll]

55 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

You do understand that PFF is attemptinfto normalize across the league to take things like throwaways and bad receiver play out of the stat line? Obviously impossible to do perfectly but seems meaningful that in all metrics across all types of throws he’s demonstrating similarly low rankings.

Do they do anything to detract from the QBs who have better receivers that catch less accurate passes? I think as long as the receiver catches the pass these stats credit the QB as having thrown an accurate pass. If said QB threw the same pass on the Bills, it would fall incomplete and count against the QB. 

 

Even with the effort you speak of, the dreadful receiver situation in Buffalo drastically skew Josh’s numbers negatively. I regularly see our receivers not even get their hands on passes that receivers on other teams like Antonio Brown adjust to and pull in with ease. 

[zow2]

My main issue with Allen as he learns the ropes is that he goes for the home run throw too often.   Just make the easy pass when it's there, move the chains.   You see it every week with Luck, Brees, Rodgers, etc..  they take what's there...not always forcing a low% downfield throw.

[Mango]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I read the article, and it's intriguing.  Pff, as so many do, confuses accuracy with precision.  Allen is accurate in that he gives players a chance to make the catch.  He can be more precise; that is where you put a ball on a specific spot.  The best Qbs have both high accuracy and high precision.  Also, the work on his completion percentage with guys that are covered seems odd.  To me that speaks more to the ability of a receiver to get separation and/or fight for a ball, not so much the QB's accuracy.  I would love to sit down with the folks who analyze every play and compare notes on what they consider inaccurate, how they know that a receiver ran a correct route, etc.  Lot of variables to consider on every pass; do the analysts take all into account?

 

Allen IMHO needs to work on a couple things.  One is recognition, knowing when to take the short throw for 5-10 yards vs. going downfield.  That should come with experience (although as an aside, I find it amusing how many here complain about a guy not throwing checkdowns after reading for years how many of the same folks criticized guys like Edwards et al for checking down too much).  Two, Allen needs to work on consistency.  When he sets up and throws from a clean pocket he is much more accurate and precise, but still misses some throws he should make.  With improved O line play, continued work in the off season on mechanics, and such, (not to mention better WRs) he should also improve there.  Regarding WR, it cannot be overstated that his WRs have not helped Allen's stats.  I was thinking about one of the most famous plays in Super Bowl history yesterday, the pass from Bradshaw to Swann against the Cowboys where Swann goes way up and makes the circus catch (a throw that was, by the way, accurate but not very precise).   Sometimes WRs have to make catches like that; I haven't seen that in our WRs as of yet, but I have seen them drop a ton of easily catchable balls. 

 

Very few NFL QBs are finished products as rookies.  The last one I can remember as being that was Marino.  Allen should improve as things go forward.  People around here need to give him time.

 

 

God, this first paragraph is so infuriatingly pedantic. It drives me crazy, I don't understand the need to keep beating that drum. It literally does zero good. People have an understanding of what the words are, and they understand the intent of what the messaging is. Quibbling over vocabulary in regards to accuracy vs. precision does nothing. Boils down to you wanting to say, "JA is just as accurate as Aaron Rogers, he just isn't as precise". Cool, you win, but the larger point is still JA is not as good at throwing the football as Aaron Rogers no matter how you slice it. 

 

Now that I have that out of my system....

 

I don't think people mean to be asking Allen to check it down. The real issue is, he does not seem to do a good job with his pre and post snap reads. He is forcing low percentage throws when he does not need to because he does not see the field well. Just because he is capable of getting the ball to a spot hard and fast, does not mean he should. 

 

Cheers

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

 

God, this first paragraph is so infuriatingly pedantic. It drives me crazy, I don't understand the need to keep beating that drum. It literally does zero good. People have an understanding of what the words are, and they understand the intent of what the messaging is. Quibbling over vocabulary in regards to accuracy vs. precision does nothing. Boils down to you wanting to say, "JA is just as accurate as Aaron Rogers, he just isn't as precise". Cool, you win, but the larger point is still JA is not as good at throwing the football as Aaron Rogers no matter how you slice it. 

 

Now that I have that out of my system....

 

I don't think people mean to be asking Allen to check it down. The real issue is, he does not seem to do a good job with his pre and post snap reads. He is forcing low percentage throws when he does not need to because he does not see the field well. Just because he is capable of getting the ball to a spot hard and fast, does not mean he should. 

 

Cheers

It is not just vocabulary and not just pedantic though.  There is a real difference between accuracy and precision.  Allen is pretty accurate, but he needs to be accurate AND precise, and at times he's not as precise as he could be.  The best QBs have both; not only are they accurate in that they put the ball in the catchable radius for their receiver, but they put it is a precise spot where, say, they can continue with run after the catch and not have to reach back for a ball and thus not gain as many YAC.  That is why I don't think completion percentage means much, and why I'd love to be sitting with these guys from PFF when they do their advanced stats.  Because I think they confuse the two terms.  Granted I come from a lab background and it skews my thinking on this.  If you get lab tests that are accurate but not precise or vice versa you can wind up in trouble.

 

I do agree with experience he'll see the field better, and make better choices.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

 

God, this first paragraph is so infuriatingly pedantic. It drives me crazy, I don't understand the need to keep beating that drum. It literally does zero good. People have an understanding of what the words are, and they understand the intent of what the messaging is. Quibbling over vocabulary in regards to accuracy vs. precision does nothing. Boils down to you wanting to say, "JA is just as accurate as Aaron Rogers, he just isn't as precise". Cool, you win, but the larger point is still JA is not as good at throwing the football as Aaron Rogers no matter how you slice it. 

 

Now that I have that out of my system....

 

I don't think people mean to be asking Allen to check it down. The real issue is, he does not seem to do a good job with his pre and post snap reads. He is forcing low percentage throws when he does not need to because he does not see the field well. Just because he is capable of getting the ball to a spot hard and fast, does not mean he should. 

 

Cheers

Well, he's not seeing the field like a veteran qb. I'm still glad he isn't instinctively a checkdown qb. We've had plenty of those over the years. I don't think there is anyone on this board who doesn't think Allen needs to develop and improve his game. Just as you are irritated by perceived pedantry, others are irritated when a predraft narrative about inaccuracy results in false conclusions such as Allen has shown no growth over the course of his rookie season. Decision making needs to improve, but he simply isn't "wildly inaccurate" and his numbers would be considerably improved with average NFL receivers on the team.

[dakrider]

1 hour ago, Lenigmusx said:

I didn’t realize how valid this comparison was until I dug a little. Take a look at Steve Young’s career stats. Especially 1985 and 1986. I have a feeling that this is the way Josh Allen will trend. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounSt00.htm

 

I think Allen is like a bigger, more durable and stronger armed Steve Young. 

Steve Young walked into the starting role on a Super Bowl winning team, he had the best receiver in the history of the NFL, had good running backs and a great O line and had one of the most brilliant NFL coaches ever.    Other than that, pretty much the same!  ?

[Lenigmusx]

Just now, dakrider said:

Steve Young walked into the starting role on a Super Bowl winning team, he had the best receiver in the history of the NFL, had good running backs and a great O line and had one of the most brilliant NFL coaches ever.    Other than that, pretty much the same!  ?

Look at his stats in Tampa that is what I was referencing. I’m talking about surrounding Josh with talent etc.. 

We have the money to make it happen. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Lenigmusx said:

I didn’t realize how valid this comparison was until I dug a little. Take a look at Steve Young’s career stats. Especially 1985 and 1986. I have a feeling that this is the way Josh Allen will trend. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/Y/YounSt00.htm

 

I think Allen is like a bigger, more durable and stronger armed Steve Young. 

Wow those stats are amazing and Allen is mirroring Young's 1985/1986 stats pretty closely this year. 

 

Also note how in 1987 after being traded to SF Young still struggled mightily with "accuracy" and only completed 54% of his passes but his TD/INTO ratio went from 8/13 in 1986 to 10/0 in 1987.

 

 

[par73]

This is not exactly a surprise. Accuracy has always been his issue, and we shall see if he can improve. History is not on his side-- not likely he'll ever be in the top tier of QB's in this category.

[WhyteDwarf]

So he was the least accurate QB in the draft, and is now proven to be the least accurate passer in the NFL. We already knew this, just seems a bunch of Bills fans will not accept it.

 

50% will never get it done in the NFL.

[Socal-805]

On 12/27/2018 at 8:33 AM, RoyBatty is alive said:

Thanks for posting a rather depressing article.  There really isnt anything shocking to it.

 

Lets hope he can improve as he matures, kid seems to be intelligent enough and is not making as many outright boneheaded throws, that in itself is a huge improvement. He plays less hero ball which is a big positive.

 

One thing not mentioned is the lack of his receivers "bailing him out" on bad throws. I wonder how PFF ranks some of the Odell Beckham completions that are actually inaccurate throws.

 

J Allen does deserve more credit for his running ability, after all he is the Bills leading rushed, LOL.

 

 

So Basically, Allen is pretty bad no matter how you slice it up: we know this and they took him anyway.

 

 

Translated by the 'apologists' as ==== He's Consistent !!!!.

 

 

On 12/27/2018 at 8:27 AM, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I’d be curious to see how many wide open looks he’s had vs the rest of the nfl. Also his WR corp are partly to blame for his close coverage accuracy. We knew he had accuracy issues out of college, with his WRs, no run game, a tough schedule and a bad oline, these numbers are a little skewed. 

 

 

I have seen All-22 video of him having time, seeing the WRs., going through progressions and missing wide open receivers: in the endzone.

 

Note he ranked LAST in all those criteria or almost last, sometimes be a wide margin.

 

He's not the guy.  

[PearlHowardman]

2 hours ago, par73 said:

This is not exactly a surprise. Accuracy has always been his issue, and we shall see if he can improve. History is not on his side-- not likely he'll ever be in the top tier of QB's in this category.

 

This^

 

1 hour ago, WhyteDwarf said:

So he was the least accurate QB in the draft, and is now proven to be the least accurate passer in the NFL. We already knew this, just seems a bunch of Bills fans will not accept it.

 

50% will never get it done in the NFL.

 

...and this^

 

1 hour ago, Socal-805 said:

I have seen All-22 video of him having time, seeing the WRs., going through progressions and missing wide open receivers: in the endzone.

 

Note he ranked LAST in all those criteria or almost last, sometimes be a wide margin.

 

He's not the guy.  

 

Ouch!

 

[JESSEFEFFER]

4 hours ago, dakrider said:

Steve Young walked into the starting role on a Super Bowl winning team, he had the best receiver in the history of the NFL, had good running backs and a great O line and had one of the most brilliant NFL coaches ever.    Other than that, pretty much the same!  ?

 

He started with the USFL and then Tampa Bay.

[WideNine]

 

On 12/27/2018 at 11:12 AM, Alphadawg7 said:

It’s everything we already knew.  His accuracy will absolutely go up, and I believe significantly, when we revamp the offense.  Couple things this article and ones like it don’t factor in:

 

1.  He was a multi-sport athlete in HS and never committed fully to football.  Which is why he wasn’t really recruited.  He didn’t start really learning the game until he was at a Jr. College and Wyoming.  Not exactly the Harvard’s of studying football, so he hasn’t really had high quality coaching before the NFL.

 

2.  Since finishing college, Josh has shown significant growth in short periods of time and done so multiple times now.  In just short stint with Palmer he made substantial improvements that allowed him to wow people and move up draft boards.  Since coming to Buffalo, he went from “needs to sit” a year very quickly into “we got to have him on the field”.  He also got a lot better while he was out several weeks hurt.  So he keeps showing that with better coaching he’s growing and improving.

 

3.  Anyone analyzing his SEASON stats are completely missing the ability to see improvement.  I would rather see his PFF stats from before he was hurt compared to his stats since returning from injury.  That’s how you chart growth.  I mean just go look at his accuracy throwing to Kelvin Benjamin early in the year compared to throwing to others, it’s drastcially worse to KB.  So just one example of how his whole season stats together don’t paint an accurate picture of where he is right this moment.

 

4.  It’s been said a million times, but Josh has had nothing to work with at Wyoming or Buffalo in terms of pass protection and talent at the skill positions around him.  It’s really hard for a player to improve on accuracy when you’re always under duress and your receivers suck at getting open.  Talent matters and he’s never been on a team with any around him.  Steve Young stunk for the Bucs then was a top 5 QB all time for 49ers on loaded roster.  And Allen reminds me a lot of Young in how he plays.  

 

5.  His work ethic, intelligence, competitiveness, leadership, and determination are all off the charts already to go along with all those physical gifts.  

 

Everyone knows there are things he must improve, just like any young QB.  He has a lot of work to do still.  However, I think there are a lot of reasons that I mostly stated above to be very optimistic in him developing into a true franchise QB and the cornerstone of this franchise for the next 15 years.

 

I honestly believe we will win the division next year if we can add the right pieces around him this offseason.  If not for a Clay drop and ST blunder, Josh would have been 6-2 as a starter going into NE game.  And had he not gotten hurt, he probably wins the Hou game and would have been 7-2 going into that NE game.  And that’s considering him being a rookie learning to read defenses, learning better throwing mechanics, the many drops he has had, poor protection, penalties on the OL, no run game, guys who can’t get open consistently on routes, guys who don’t win contested tight passes, etc.   

 

GO BILLS!  There will be a changing of the guard in the AFCE next year and it will be us.

 

Was going through all my thoughts about the value of aggregate stats vs. game by game metrics to show how rookie QBs are trending, what my eyes are telling me about Allen's progress, and the lack of any run game support.... and realized it was mostly all here in your post.

 

I did think that pass protection held up reasonably well at NE, but that was probably more due to Belichick instructing his defensive line that they had to stay gap-disciplined and to not let Josh escape as their #1 priority vs some quantum leap in that group's collective ability. Allen looked like a rookie against NE and made some poor decisions and throws, but he also made some jaw-dropping good plays - and that is the story of most rookie QBs with talent.

 

My eyes tell me that Josh is on a good learning trajectory, that he throws balls away now when he would never do that before. He rarely takes sacks for a loss which he did earlier in the year. He is recognizing defenses and although he misfired on some of his throws, it is amazing that he is recognizing where to go with the ball compared to how lost he was earlier in the year. He is even looking off the safeties more than he did earlier in the season when he tended to lock on one receiver the whole way. Does he still make those mistakes - yes, but they are trending in the right downward direction.

 

The physical tools all seem to be there, and I do think he can make every throw, and will make more of them as the game slows down for him and his anticipation allows him to step into those throws with the right touch.

 

Will add my beer to the one's you collected already.

Edited December 28, 2018 by WideNine

[Ayjent]

PFF and other stat based analyses still haven’t figured out a good qualitative measure of QB play. Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn’t, but they tend to be too focused on their methodology and measures explaining quality of play rather than the quality of play being supported by stats.  I’ve seen enough from him to know that he has a legit shot at being a really good QB, and I’m not one who liked Allen and I’m not one to be easy on the Bills’ decision making at that position. 

 

Allen has had poor protection in many games, no running game to balance the offense in many games, and skill position players who haven’t elevated their games (with the exception of Foster).  He looks far more capable than Rosen or Darnold, but he really does need to look for the easier play than the big play and know when to take chances for the big play rather than the safe play.  He’s not a roller coaster of inconsistency like EJ and he isn’t a limited passer like Tyrod.  However, he doesn’t get into a rhythm as a passer and that is something I want to see him do at some point soon.  I understand that the limited talent around him makes that difficult.