Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, zonabb said:

This is now becoming my favorite spectator sport... watching the diehard homers defend Allen, in the OP's case going so far as to imply there is no accuracy issue but using "issue" in quotes so as to discredit anyone before they even respond. Then there's the list of reasons he's inaccurate by another poster, with the top 3 being "not his fault" excuses. 

 

Everyone can try and sell this to themselves anyway that makes them feel good or better about Allen. But the fact is, game in and game out, he's wildly inaccurate. Just own it. He has one, let me restate that ONE, game where his completion percentage was above 60. You can't blame every game, inside and out, one everything but Allen. Darnold's been an inconsistent rookie as well, but his highs have far outweighed his lows. He has 6 games with a percentage over 60%. And his last 3 games his percentage is 66.0% with 6 TDs (one less than Allen's season total) and 1 INT. Allen in his last three is 49.5%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

But he's the proof he's not improving his accuracy. He's started 10 games (played in 11). In his first 10 starts, his completion percentage was 55.6%. His second 5 starts, it was 49.7%. So how then is he getting better in this crucial aspect of playing QB in the NFL? 

 

Even with bad receivers and a bad line, you should expect that experience, based on what I read here, should indicate that he can improve in this situation even marginally or maintain some level of consistency. I believe you should getter better even a little, over a season under the same of circumstances. If you don't, that's telling. 

 

I said it when he was drafted and will continue to say it over and over until a QB in this league improves substantially (give me a measure of statistical significance), that inaccuracy is unfixable. What's more, go back and look at the college stats of every Super Bowl winner since 2000. Not sure there is a guy in that group with a sub-60% college career.

 

So in the end, the homer argument is simple. He was a project, we knew that going it, and he'll get better with experience. The data and eye test (inc. All-22) debunk that argument in year 1. He simply hasn't show any improvement. So can a player who showed no improvement improve in his second year? There's a ton of people here who have a ton of flimsy justifications why he will but refuse to come with empirical evidence that would suggest it.

 

As soon as you try to buttress that way-too-drawn-out recycled stuff with "he hasn't shown any improvement", you lose whatever traction you had built.

 

 I will never understand why folks simply can't be reasonable about this kid

[jahnyc]

We are in wait and see mode for both of our first round picks last year (Allen and Edmunds).  Need to see significant improvement and development from both in year two.

[DuckyBoys]

Is he inaccurate or does he simply choose to throw the harder to complete passes too much?

[BakersBills]

if you compare pre injury to post injury, numbers would look alot better

[LSHMEAB]

41 minutes ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Mass destruction for all at OBD then. God help us!

 

Oh and you're absolutely pathetic for making fun of people for being hopeful. Absolutely pathetic. 

In all fairness, people bash every offensive player not named Josh Allen to shreds. So lets not pretend like he's making fun of people for being "hopeful." If every offensive player sucks, it doesn't bode well for the future of the franchise.

[BillsFan1988]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I agree and the KB point was just one minimal example of how it’s unfair to look at his season stats to identify growth.  I think everyone could and should agree that Josh is a better QB now than he was before he got hurt, and that goes beyond that stat sheet like you said.

 

And yeah, I agree with you that Jets are a threat, but I think we have a better foundation over all as we have a playoff ready Defense and IMHO a better coaching staff and GM.  Both teams though have the most importance development piece (young promising QB) and a ton of cap room.  So they certainly are a team with lots of upside right now too, but I feel more confident in our ability to turn the corner than I do in theirs.  

Really it aint gonna matter because its basically Darnold vs Allen . So far i hate to say it but Darnold looking like the better passer of the 2 by far.

[BillsFan1988]

1 hour ago, teef said:

They sure do. I can’t blame anyone for a lack of patience at this point.  The trick is with qbs we have to be extra patient. I certainly don’t expect josh to be a highly polish product next year, but there needs to be visual/measurable improvements. 

He needs to at the very least take a Trubisky type leap. Now im not a big fan of Mitch but he did get better in his 2nd season. Im expecting this from Allen. Not a Mahomes type leap or Goff a Trubisky that should be the goal.

[iinii]

The wheels on the bus go round and round.....

[DuckyBoys]

34 minutes ago, BillsFan1988 said:

He needs to at the very least take a Trubisky type leap. Now im not a big fan of Mitch but he did get better in his 2nd season. Im expecting this from Allen. Not a Mahomes type leap or Goff a Trubisky that should be the goal.

talent around Trubisky got a lot better  Go look at what he is asked to do  Its all quick  barely above the los passing  with one or two deep looks per game

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, Trogdor said:

Might have something to do with his accuracy issues with short passes. The must unbelievable misses always seem to be on simple dump passes. I also think that he has a knack for looking for the big play instead of the correct play. Even in college he had a tendency to try and push everything instead of making the right throw and moving the ball. I'm not going to put a lot of stock in how far he tries to throw it all the time since that doesn't seem to be a meaningful stat when measured against other winning QBs. 

 

So your theory is: 

Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead?

 

Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions.  However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

6 hours ago, 17years&waiting said:

I'd be curious how many of these "contested" passes are the WR's not making plays on the ball, and are not necessarily Allen's fault.  It's hard to tell how they decide whether or not the pass was the QB's fault, but in my mind, I haven't seen that many passes that are Allen's fault.

 

Take for instance the Foster play in the sun against the Patriots: how does that count for PFF?  It's technically not a drop, because I don't think Foster touched it, but it was also maybe the best deep pass I've seen Allen throw this year.  Does it count as "inaccurate" in this rating system?

I'm just as curious as you are about how they rated this pass.  And do they use the "official" dropped pass metric which seems a bit lose to me, you know the one where Logan Thomas didn't drop the ball at the goal line?

 

It just seems to me that the amount of subjective as opposed to objective info that flows into this kind of analytic makes it very difficult to quantitate.   

Edited December 27, 2018 by CincyBillsFan

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

Thanks for posting, Thurm.  

 

While some of the details are interesting, I don't think this article tells us anything we don't already know.   The more basic stats (like completion percentage) - and our own eyes - have already informed us that Josh has not been an accurate passer this season.

Josh's accuracy this year is not the real debate.  The more meaningful debate is how much he'll improve as a QB from Year 1 to Year 2.  I have not heard a convincing argument from either side.   Some say accuracy is a genetic hand-eye thing that does't ever get better.  Others say there are a lot more factors to completion percentage than precision with the ball: biomechanics, predictable & precise route running by the WRs, the ability to find the open guy (easiest target), and so on.  

 

Certainly some QBs have improved upon their Year 1 completion percentage.  Some have not.  Personally, I really don't know what to expect from Josh next year.

 

 

As other posters have pointed out Allen's improvement over the course of this season has been impressive and indicates that his improvement from year 1 to year 2, given a whole off season to work with AND better offensive weapons, will be substantial.  

[hondo in seattle]

I don't know if Allen will ever be a good QB.  But I do know that QBs playing for offenses that are well-oiled, finely tuned machines are more productive.

 

When a receiver (and we have a bunch of young ones) cuts a bit too soon, or too late, or takes a slightly angle after the cut, the result can change from a completion to something else.  And PFF can't account for this because they don't know what the receiver was supposed to do.  The pass looks errant and that's how it's graded.  

 

Or imagine this.  The beginning of the play is going well.  The snap is perfect.  The QB drops back and plants his feet just  the way he's been coached.  The OL creates a good pocket and the QB can see downfield clearly.  As he scans the defense, the QB realizes his pre-snap read was spot on.  The play is unfolding just as he hoped and gets ready to launch the ball...  and that's when something goes wrong with the WR.  He cuts right instead of left or slips behind the DB instead of cutting in front.    Now the QB is stressed.  He knows his OL isn't very good and the pocket won't last much longer.  He quickly searches for his #2 target.  The guy is covered but the QB doesn't believe the pocket will last much longer so he hurriedly forces the pass anyway.  Incomplete.  PFF scores the pass poorly but had the primary receiver run his route right, the pass would have been complete.  If the QB had more confidence in the OL, he might have taken the time to find the open checkdown.  

 

A QB on a high functioning offense will play better than a QB on a dysfunctional offense.  The Bills offense is closer to the "dysfunctional" end of the spectrum than the "high-functioning" end.  This isn't a good environment for any QB, let alone a rookie.  

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

I've been watching this team for over 30 years now.  I've been through Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and every other terrible starter we've squeezed in between those guys.  I know what bad quarterbacks look like, and there wasn't a moment that I truly felt optimistic about any of our younger QBs developing into anything special.  I feel optimism about Allen.

 

 

This is my take as well. 

 

Let's face it those of us Bills fans who've been around the block and paying attention to the parade of QB's over the last 20 years have earned a PhD in Advanced Crappy QB play.  Allen looks different to us and it's not just wishful thinking on our part. 

[Trogdor]

28 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

So your theory is: 

Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead?

 

Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions.  However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

 

I think the plays called are a product of his trouble with short passes. He also has a history of trying to push everything.  I don't agree with your theory that you can get an aggressive QB to checkdown, but I hope it's true. 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

31 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

So your theory is: 

Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead?

 

Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions.  However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

 

 

I have had the same thought.  He doesn’t entirely trust the finesse throw where he has to modulate his 1-100 arm power to say 55 power and would rather take the throw that requires 90-100 power.

 

What did Coach Arians say in the game.  Allen needs to learn to play the game at 5-15 yards instead of 30-50 yards?  (Something like that.)

 

i alos liked the analogy someone made on this site comparing Allen to a Golfer that loves the Driver and playing long ball.  Or the bowler who can whip strikes but is always 50/50 on picking up 1-2 pin spares.

[Jay_Fixit]

Dude just needs to take the check down. I can’t believe how often he passes the easy completion up.

 

He’ll learn. 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully.

[CincyBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

I think the plays called are a product of his trouble with short passes. He also has a history of trying to push everything.  I don't agree with your theory that you can get an aggressive QB to checkdown, but I hope it's true. 

The problem with trying to figure any of this out is that there are to many variables:

 

*  When watching the Bills try to execute a screen pass the first thing you notice is that Allen's short passing accuracy is the least of our worries.  It seems like the O-line has major problems in first selling the screen then getting out there to make a block.

 

*  With Shady banged up since Allen came back from his injury we probably have the worst set of receiving RB's in the NFL.  Ditto for our TE's. While it's one thing to want an effective short passing offense it's not so easy to do without decent route running & pass catching RB's & TE's. 

 

*  The Bills seem to be in a lot of 1st & long and 2nd & long situations due to the false stars and holding penalties.  In the NFL defensive coordinators know that 1st & 20 or 2nd & 15 just cry out for a dump off pass and they game plan accordingly.  It also means Allen is thinking about getting back big chunks of that yardage and that explains his urgency to push the ball downfield.  Patience is one of the last things a rookie gunslinger type QB learns.  Which was a point Arians made over & over again. 

 

*  The ability of the opposition to take our WR's out of the game with minimum effort allows them to better focus against the short passing game. 

 

*  Outside of Shady the Bills don't have the type of RB talent/experience that can differentiate when they need to pick up the blitz and when they're free to sneak out into the flat.  While Allen has to get better at spotting these guys and making the throw I've seen our RBs standing their waiting for a blitzer who didn't come yet NOT getting out of the backfield for the dump off. 

[hondo in seattle]

I remember watching Steve DeBerg in 1978 and wondering what the heck was this clown doing lining up behind center pretending to be a NFL QB?  He was unspeakably bad that season, completing just 45% of his passes with a 8-22 TD to INT ratio.  His passer rating of 40.0 wasn't quite Peterman bad but it was close.  

 

The next year DeBerg completed 60% of his passes and went on to have a decent career.   (DeBerg is #31 on the all-time passing yards list, only 4 spots below Kelly).  

 

Some guys get better with experience and coaching.  And some guys get better when they get the right cast around them.  Hopefully both things happen with Josh.  

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

9 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I remember watching Steve DeBerg in 1978 and wondering what the heck was this clown doing lining up behind center pretending to be a NFL QB?  He was unspeakably bad that season, completing just 45% of his passes with a 8-22 TD to INT ratio.  His passer rating of 40.0 wasn't quite Peterman bad but it was close.  

 

The next year DeBerg completed 60% of his passes and went on to have a decent career.   (DeBerg is #31 on the all-time passing yards list, only 4 spots below Kelly).  

 

Some guys get better with experience and coaching.  And some guys get better when they get the right cast around them.  Hopefully both things happen with Josh.  

 

The exciting part and maybe the fortunate/unfortunate part for Allen (depends) is the Bar that 2nd Year QBs of this current generation have set for upcoming 2nd year QBs is prettt high but not unreachable.

 

Wentz, Goff, Trubisky, Mahomes all made tremendous leaps in Season 2.  It was pretty significant.  From completion percentages, yards and touchdowns.  AND (barring a KC Upset this Sunday) all four led their squads to division titles in Season 2.

 

Now you are going to have peopel tell you next year “patience”, or “process” or “it takes time”.  Hogwash.  The league moves fast and Allen should be expected to deliver at least a run at the Diviison title and ample improvement in all statiscal categories mix. 

 

if you want to have high standards you need to hold your own team to the level that the rest of the league sets.

 

It can’t be one standard for the league and a lower standard for Buffalo just because you want to feel good about your team.

 

Next season Allen has some big improvements stats wise to accomplish...if he doesn’t take the next step like his contemporaries...then it’s time to start looking again.

Edited December 27, 2018 by RalphWilson'sNewWar