Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[billsfan89]

I would like to see how Allen can improve with another off-season to work on his footwork and watch his own tape. I also want to see how much better he can play with better pass protection and better skill position players. 

[Putin]

2 hours ago, jahnyc said:

Hard to argue with the stats.  Allen will need to improve his accuracy to become a quality starter (or better) for the Bills, which we all had understood would need to happen when he was drafted.  I hope his accuracy when pressured will improve as he gets more comfortable with the offense and improves his ability to recognize defenses/pressures.  This does underscore the importance of making sure that we have the best possible coaches working with Allen to improve his accuracy since he is showing very good intangibles and rare athleticism and arm strength.

You want to improve his accuracy/completion % ? ?? 

How about you start by getting him a REAL nfl quality WR/TE and not bunch of practice squad or rejects from other teams , and maybe an OL that could give him more then 0.09 sec in the pocket on 3rd Downs , especially when it’s 3rd & 8, 9 because our running has been practically none existent , 

Hopefully all this will be addressed in the preseason , so having some experience as a starter this year  and with a full TC and preseason ( next year) under his belt without having to split reps with other QB’s (IMO) will make a huge difference in his all around performance next season!!!

Edited December 27, 2018 by Putin

[Chicken Boo]

Yeah I figured this thread wouldn't have many posts in it.

 

Thanks for the post, Thurman.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Chicken Boo

[mjt328]

Interesting that the original post didn't include this tidbit from the PFF article:

 

Quote

 

As a passer, Allen ranks first among qualified QBs with 20.7 percent of his passes traveling at least 20 yards in the air (only six quarterbacks are better than even 15 percent).

He leads all QBs with an average depth of target of 12.2 yards and his 5.3 big-time throw percentage ranks 11^th best among QBs. Allen clearly has no issues – and isn’t shy – when it comes to chucking the ball downfield. The rate at which he’s made those big-time throws (he’s nearly a full percentage point above the league average) proves that he’s capable of elevating his offense like great QBs do.

 

 

As I've mentioned before, almost every time Allen drops back into the pocket, he's being asked to make downfield throws.  It's the complete opposite of most other NFL offenses, which rely on constant check-downs and quick/easy passes.  This is going to have a major effect on his completion percentage, at every measurable level.

 

I've been watching this team for over 30 years now.  I've been through Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and every other terrible starter we've squeezed in between those guys.  I know what bad quarterbacks look like, and there wasn't a moment that I truly felt optimistic about any of our younger QBs developing into anything special.  I feel optimism about Allen.

 

People can throws "statistics" at me all day.  I watch the games.  I see a play-action based offense that can't run the ball.  I see a downfield passing attack with an offensive line that can't hold a block longer than 1-2 seconds.  I see a group of wide receivers who rarely get open, constantly drop passes and never make plays on the ball.  This is a situation that would have most veterans shell-shocked.  But the rookie QB (who was supposed to be a major project and totally unprepared to play in the NFL) came back after the bye week, and is putting the offense on his back.

 

[BananaB]

Get him an Oline and a couple guys who can catch  and we are gonna win a lot of games. That is all that matters. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by BananaB

[Andrew Son]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The adjusted stats quoted in the article already account for these.

They attempt to account for it, in a completely subjective manner.

 

These advanced "stats" are fun, but are too often used to advance some preconceived position.

 

Here are some issues I have with these "stats"-

 

• What happens with a miscommunication?  Say a situation where you have a new offensive system, and are trotting out an UDFA and a couple guys picked up mid-season who may not be on the same page with the QB?  What if they zig when Josh was expecting a zag?  Say Josh throws a beautiful back-shoulder throw and Zay just keeps running down the field?  An experienced QB, with experienced WR's, in an established system, is always going to appear more accurate.  
• Completely accounting for pressure is impossible.  Yes, if a free rusher comes, and the QB quickly throws it away- that's easy.  But let's say you have an awful o-line that constantly gives up pressure (know any team like that?).  The QB knows this- his clock is sped up, he's not a comfortable in the pocket and his mechanics could break down.  How do you account for constant pressure on previous plays creating inaccuracy on play where there might not be any perceived pressure?
• How do you define a "throwaway?"  There are many situations where everyone is basically covered, or the protection is breaking down, and the QB doesn't exactly throw it away- but will place it where only his guy has a chance to get it.  Where do you draw the line between inaccurate and a throwaway?

Josh is probably never going to be a high completion % guy.  He is going to push the ball down the field (which he should because it's his elite weapon), and it's easier to be more accurate with a pitching wedge than with a driver.  When you start with a lower completion %, even when adjusted it is hard to make up ground on people that started with a higher completion %.  That is generally how statistical adjustments work.  I didn't look, but I would bet that the completion % leaders would be pretty similar to the adjusted completion % leaders.

 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think Josh Allen is ever going to be a precision passer. He is not going to be Tom Brady, or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But that doesn't mean he can't be an excellent Quarterback. Cam Newton is the often held up example of a guy who wasn't coming out and still isn't a precision passer and that is true and he led his team to a Superbowl berth. But equally Big Ben has never been a precision passer either. He is accurate enough to succeed and to have been borderline elite pretty much his whole career but he is not precise in the way I'd say Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even someone like a Matt Ryan is. Josh has definitely shown some improvement with experience and comfort in running the offense and I am absolutely certain his completion percentage will improve next year if the Bills put a better supporting cast around him. And I expect that improved supporting cast and increased comfort will lead to less natural inaccuracy. But I am not sure he is ever going to eradicate it completely - just like Cam hasn't and just like Ben still has his moments too.

 

This is a great point.

There are many different levels of accuracy in the NFL.  It's not just "accurate" or "inaccurate."

 

I think Josh Allen's game is most comparable to Ben Roethlisberger/Cam Newton.  And like you said, both are guys who have had good to great NFL success without the benefit of fantastic passing accuracy. 

 

Notice that Roethlisberger has always been surrounded by incredible WRs, strong running games and a solid offensive line.  Newton has had good running backs, but some pretty average/below average receivers and questionable blocking help.  Let's hope that our Carolina-based front office builds an offense closer to the Steelers than the Panthers.

 

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

As to your final line. I do think the changing of the guard is happening..... I expect New England to still be competitive for a division title and playoff berth in 2019 but far from the shoe in they have been in the past and beyond 2019 I think they may slip off the pace. The threat comes from the Jets. Sam Darnold like Allen seems to have returned from his injury a better Quarterback than he was before. His performance against the Packers last week is the best single game performance from any of the rookie QBs this year. Ultimately who ends up with supremacy over the AFCE for the next decade probably comes down to which of those young Quarterbacks ends up the better and, to a lesser extent, how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them - from defense, to weapons, to protection and to coaching.  

 

Agreed.  Sam Darnold was my favorite QB of the draft, and I was upset to see the Jets land him.

Based on what we've seen this year, the future of the AFC East just may be the Jets/Bills.

 

 

[Troll Toll]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The adjusted stats quoted in the article already account for these.

I’m sorry, but I don’t trust the subjectivity involved in such an analysis. As others have pointed out in past weeks, other QBs frequently have receivers make tough catches. I doubt they take those completions from other QBs and account for the fact that the same pass in terms of catch radius would be incomplete to our receivers. 

 

It’s like the Detroit game where they gave Stafford a far better QBR than Allen. Well guess what, Allen was the better QB and the Bills won. Stafford got lucky on a couple 50/50 balls against Tre White.

 

I trust what I see over what I’m told.

[26CornerBlitz]

8 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

They attempt to account for it, in a completely subjective manner.

 

These advanced "stats" are fun, but are too often used to advance some preconceived position.

 

Here are some issues I have with these "stats"-

 

• What happens with a miscommunication?  Say a situation where you have a new offensive system, and are trotting out an UDFA and a couple guys picked up mid-season who may not be on the same page with the QB?  What if they zig when Josh was expecting a zag?  Say Josh throws a beautiful back-shoulder throw and Zay just keeps running down the field?  An experienced QB, with experienced WR's, in an established system, is always going to appear more accurate.  
• Completely accounting for pressure is impossible.  Yes, if a free rusher comes, and the QB quickly throws it away- that's easy.  But let's say you have an awful o-line that constantly gives up pressure (know any team like that?).  The QB knows this- his clock is sped up, he's not a comfortable in the pocket and his mechanics could break down.  How do you account for constant pressure on previous plays creating inaccuracy on play where there might not be any perceived pressure?
• How do you define a "throwaway?"  There are many situations where everyone is basically covered, or the protection is breaking down, and the QB doesn't exactly throw it away- but will place it where only his guy has a chance to get it.  Where do you draw the line between inaccurate and a throwaway?

Josh is probably never going to be a high completion % guy.  He is going to push the ball down the field (which he should because it's his elite weapon), and it's easier to be more accurate with a pitching wedge than with a driver.  When you start with a lower completion %, even when adjusted it is hard to make up ground on people that started with a higher completion %.  That is generally how statistical adjustments work.  I didn't look, but I would bet that the completion % leaders would be pretty similar to the adjusted completion % leaders.

 

Like I figured, the ABB would try to explain this away with excuses.   The text I bolded isn't the way to win in the NFL as the QB needs to be able throw to the open guy and do so accurately to sustain drives that lead to points being scored.  You obviously want explosive plays, but the chains have to keep moving  in order to matriculate the ball down the field ( Thank You Hank Stram). 

 

2 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

I’m sorry, but I don’t trust the subjectivity involved in such an analysis. As others have pointed out in past weeks, other QBs frequently have receivers make tough catches. I doubt they take those completions from other QBs and account for the fact that the same pass in terms of catch radius would be incomplete to our receivers. 

 

It’s like the Detroit game where they gave Stafford a far better QBR than Allen. Well guess what, Allen was the better QB and the Bills won. Stafford got lucky on a couple 50/50 balls against Tre White.

 

I trust what I see over what I’m told.

 

ABB member?

Edited December 27, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[DuckyBoys]

2 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

Judging solely by what I have seen, not by any metrics or statistical analysis, Allen is a QB that will be fun to watch, as well as one who will occasionally do things no-one else can do, followed by screwing up things everyone else should be able to do.  Brett Favre comes to mind.  I am hoping that this style, when surrounded by a more talented supporting cast, will not only make for a fun offense to watch, but also one that can win enough games to be in the playoff mix for years to come.  He will likely be more of a high risk, high reward player, but that is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Buckle up Bills fans, we are a the beginning of a fun roller coaster ride, with plenty of highs and lows and twists and turns along the way...

 

 

Exactly how I see it.  Worst case we get two years of football with big splash plays mixed in with inconsistency and they move on.  Best case he gets better at the little details and the cast around him improves greatly allowing for him to need to do less.  Right now way too much of the offense is on his back which the article doesn't really touch on.  No exactly like the Bills have any run game or any success moving the football with qb friendly offense

[John from Riverside]

In one of the videos one of the PFF guys was harping about the across the body throws

 

He is throwing the ball away MUCH more in the NFL then he was at Wyoming......but they chose not to mention that.

[JaCrispy]

3 hours ago, teef said:

i'm with you.  i never though it was completely about allen's accuracy, (although i think we all know it will likely never be elite, and that's ok) but rather the speed of the game and decision making.  he just has to improve.  if next year looks too much like this year, we're all screwed.

I was thinking the same thing...people give him a pass this year because he is a rookie, but I doubt they will be as kind next year...the fan base has a tendency to turn on people very quickly if the don’t produce.

[Andrew Son]

8 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Like I figured, the ABB would try to explain this away with excuses.    

 

 

ABB member?

Fantastic insights!

 

For the record, I liked Allen before the draft and before he became a Bill.  My eyeballs tell me he's going to be good.  

[Da webster guy]

I agree with Alphadawg.  The kid passes the eye test. 

 

He has pocket presence, elusiveness, and a knack for making plays.   He isn't Drew Brees (who now has 70% completion percentage but had a 57% completion, 11 TDs and 15 picks in his 3rd season)  but he will get there.

 

The guys to worry about now are Beane, McD and Daboll.   The way they do their jobs in the next 8 months are critical for what happens in the next few years.   

 

Beane has to have an all pro offseason.  We already know Josh will be ready.

 

 

 

 

.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Da webster guy

[John from Riverside]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am quoting the two specific bits of your post I am responding directly to. Firstly, in respect of point 3 - it wasn't Josh Allen's accuracy that was much worse to Kelvin Benjamin - it was his completion percentage. At times the PFF article distinguishes between completion percentage and accuracy and at other times it conflates the two. Josh Allen has still this season suffered from the same issue - that I termed 'natural' inaccuracy' - that he suffered from in college. Throws where there is no obvious technical reason for an inaccurate pass and yet the pass is inaccurate in any event. What has become evident is that it happens less frequently when he is comfortable and in rhythm - which is probably normal for all QBs - but it is not as easy as Josh is accurate in a clean pocket and inaccurate under pressure. It is something less obviously tangible than that.

 

Now what has happened since the injury is he has looked more comfortable and assured as a rule. Maybe that is the old adage about the game slowing down for him and I think that has led to a reduction in the instances of that natural inaccuracy rearing its ugly head. So I think there has been an improvement but again it requires more than an analytical breakdown of completion percentages to certain receivers or completion percentages under pressure to really see it and understand it. Josh Allen more than maybe any other Quarterback around is the poster boy for the phrase "no substitute for watching film." You have to watch him and go back and look at every throw.

 

I don't think Josh Allen is ever going to be a precision passer. He is not going to be Tom Brady, or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But that doesn't mean he can't be an excellent Quarterback. Cam Newton is the often held up example of a guy who wasn't coming out and still isn't a precision passer and that is true and he led his team to a Superbowl berth. But equally Big Ben has never been a precision passer either. He is accurate enough to succeed and to have been borderline elite pretty much his whole career but he is not precise in the way I'd say Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even someone like a Matt Ryan is. Josh has definitely shown some improvement with experience and comfort in running the offense and I am absolutely certain his completion percentage will improve next year if the Bills put a better supporting cast around him. And I expect that improved supporting cast and increased comfort will lead to less natural inaccuracy. But I am not sure he is ever going to eradicate it completely - just like Cam hasn't and just like Ben still has his moments too.

 

As to your final line. I do think the changing of the guard is happening..... I expect New England to still be competitive for a division title and playoff berth in 2019 but far from the shoe in they have been in the past and beyond 2019 I think they may slip off the pace. The threat comes from the Jets. Sam Darnold like Allen seems to have returned from his injury a better Quarterback than he was before. His performance against the Packers last week is the best single game performance from any of the rookie QBs this year. Ultimately who ends up with supremacy over the AFCE for the next decade probably comes down to which of those young Quarterbacks ends up the better and, to a lesser extent, how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them - from defense, to weapons, to protection and to coaching.  

To me the answer is pretty simple.....put him in a position for success and see if he can be more successful

 

So many times this year he would have gotten sacked if he didnt bail out of the pocket

So many times receivers drop balls that should be caught.....the really upsetting ones are the touchdowns

So many times having to put the team on his shoulders because we flat cannot run the ball......this has been very frustrating to me as that has been a strength of this team for so many years

 

Fix it.....and see if Josh flourishes in it

[Trogdor]

1 hour ago, mjt328 said:

Interesting that the original post didn't include this tidbit from the PFF article:

 

 

As I've mentioned before, almost every time Allen drops back into the pocket, he's being asked to make downfield throws.  It's the complete opposite of most other NFL offenses, which rely on constant check-downs and quick/easy passes.  This is going to have a major effect on his completion percentage, at every measurable level.

 

I've been watching this team for over 30 years now.  I've been through Todd Collins, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe, JP Losman, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, Tyrod Taylor and every other terrible starter we've squeezed in between those guys.  I know what bad quarterbacks look like, and there wasn't a moment that I truly felt optimistic about any of our younger QBs developing into anything special.  I feel optimism about Allen.

 

People can throws "statistics" at me all day.  I watch the games.  I see a play-action based offense that can't run the ball.  I see a downfield passing attack with an offensive line that can't hold a block longer than 1-2 seconds.  I see a group of wide receivers who rarely get open, constantly drop passes and never make plays on the ball.  This is a situation that would have most veterans shell-shocked.  But the rookie QB (who was supposed to be a major project and totally unprepared to play in the NFL) came back after the bye week, and is putting the offense on his back.

 

Might have something to do with his accuracy issues with short passes. The must unbelievable misses always seem to be on simple dump passes. I also think that he has a knack for looking for the big play instead of the correct play. Even in college he had a tendency to try and push everything instead of making the right throw and moving the ball. I'm not going to put a lot of stock in how far he tries to throw it all the time since that doesn't seem to be a meaningful stat when measured against other winning QBs. 

[Boca BIlls]

We can always draft another QB.

[teef]

43 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

I was thinking the same thing...people give him a pass this year because he is a rookie, but I doubt they will be as kind next year...the fan base has a tendency to turn on people very quickly if the don’t produce.

They sure do. I can’t blame anyone for a lack of patience at this point.  The trick is with qbs we have to be extra patient. I certainly don’t expect josh to be a highly polish product next year, but there needs to be visual/measurable improvements. 

[zonabb]

This is now becoming my favorite spectator sport... watching the diehard homers defend Allen, in the OP's case going so far as to imply there is no accuracy issue but using "issue" in quotes so as to discredit anyone before they even respond. Then there's the list of reasons he's inaccurate by another poster, with the top 3 being "not his fault" excuses. 

 

Everyone can try and sell this to themselves anyway that makes them feel good or better about Allen. But the fact is, game in and game out, he's wildly inaccurate. Just own it. He has one, let me restate that ONE, game where his completion percentage was above 60. You can't blame every game, inside and out, one everything but Allen. Darnold's been an inconsistent rookie as well, but his highs have far outweighed his lows. He has 6 games with a percentage over 60%. And his last 3 games his percentage is 66.0% with 6 TDs (one less than Allen's season total) and 1 INT. Allen in his last three is 49.5%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

But he's the proof he's not improving his accuracy. He's started 10 games (played in 11). In his first 10 starts, his completion percentage was 55.6%. His second 5 starts, it was 49.7%. So how then is he getting better in this crucial aspect of playing QB in the NFL? 

 

Even with bad receivers and a bad line, you should expect that experience, based on what I read here, should indicate that he can improve in this situation even marginally or maintain some level of consistency. I believe you should getter better even a little, over a season under the same of circumstances. If you don't, that's telling. 

 

I said it when he was drafted and will continue to say it over and over until a QB in this league improves substantially (give me a measure of statistical significance), that inaccuracy is unfixable. What's more, go back and look at the college stats of every Super Bowl winner since 2000. Not sure there is a guy in that group with a sub-60% college career.

 

So in the end, the homer argument is simple. He was a project, we knew that going it, and he'll get better with experience. The data and eye test (inc. All-22) debunk that argument in year 1. He simply hasn't show any improvement. So can a player who showed no improvement improve in his second year? There's a ton of people here who have a ton of flimsy justifications why he will but refuse to come with empirical evidence that would suggest it.

[Roundybout]

21 minutes ago, zonabb said:

This is now becoming my favorite spectator sport... watching the diehard homers defend Allen, in the OP's case going so far as to imply there is no accuracy issue but using "issue" in quotes so as to discredit anyone before they even respond. Then there's the list of reasons he's inaccurate by another poster, with the top 3 being "not his fault" excuses. 

 

Everyone can try and sell this to themselves anyway that makes them feel good or better about Allen. But the fact is, game in and game out, he's wildly inaccurate. Just own it. He has one, let me restate that ONE, game where his completion percentage was above 60. You can't blame every game, inside and out, one everything but Allen. Darnold's been an inconsistent rookie as well, but his highs have far outweighed his lows. He has 6 games with a percentage over 60%. And his last 3 games his percentage is 66.0% with 6 TDs (one less than Allen's season total) and 1 INT. Allen in his last three is 49.5%, 2 TDs, 4 INTs. 

 

But he's the proof he's not improving his accuracy. He's started 10 games (played in 11). In his first 10 starts, his completion percentage was 55.6%. His second 5 starts, it was 49.7%. So how then is he getting better in this crucial aspect of playing QB in the NFL? 

 

Even with bad receivers and a bad line, you should expect that experience, based on what I read here, should indicate that he can improve in this situation even marginally or maintain some level of consistency. I believe you should getter better even a little, over a season under the same of circumstances. If you don't, that's telling. 

 

I said it when he was drafted and will continue to say it over and over until a QB in this league improves substantially (give me a measure of statistical significance), that inaccuracy is unfixable. What's more, go back and look at the college stats of every Super Bowl winner since 2000. Not sure there is a guy in that group with a sub-60% college career.

 

So in the end, the homer argument is simple. He was a project, we knew that going it, and he'll get better with experience. The data and eye test (inc. All-22) debunk that argument in year 1. He simply hasn't show any improvement. So can a player who showed no improvement improve in his second year? There's a ton of people here who have a ton of flimsy justifications why he will but refuse to come with empirical evidence that would suggest it.

 

Mass destruction for all at OBD then. God help us!

 

Oh and you're absolutely pathetic for making fun of people for being hopeful. Absolutely pathetic. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by BillsEnthusiast