Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[Watkins90]

38 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

One thing I'm left curious about stems from this tidbit:

 

"At PFF, one of our advanced metrics of tracking quarterback play is called adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws where the QB is hit on his release.  Allen ranks last among qualified QBs with a 62.1 adjusted completion percentage, and when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage plummets to 45.2 percent (he’s the only QB at less than 57.0 percent in terms of adjusted completion percentage under pressure)."

I'm curious as to how many passes this accounts for with Allen, because if they're just looking at where he's hit on his release (vs scrambling to avoid pressure), I wonder if Allen is avoiding being hit on release while he's really moving about and not resetting properly or just flat out turning the play into a run.

 

Analytics didn't favor Allen pre draft so it's no surprise they aren't favoring him now.  I do question the part about charting every throw for accuracy, since just as with drops, there's plainly a large element of subjectivity at play there.
 

This is very close to something I've been saying:

"While the tools are tantalizing, and he can make the big-time throws for the NFL, he must get better at handling the easy stuff, from working in the quick game to throwing with touch and accuracy to all levels of the field.”

It's notable from their assessment of the throws made, Allen is not ""less accurate" (in terms of completions) with short dumpoff throws, but the eyeballs tell a different story - Allen will not infrequently will pass up a wide open guy he would have to hit at short range while he's on the move, in favor of a run, and often his dump-off throws are not placed as perfectly as they need to be for YAC.  I think it's because he knows these aren't "gimme" throws for him at this point, and that his ultimate success or failure will depend on his ability to develop and hit those.
 

My eyeballs tell me he has been getting better with touch throws. He made a couple impressive touch throws against New England, while also making some bad ones. But, there seem to be more good ones lately. 

[26CornerBlitz]

13 minutes ago, Troll Toll said:

His completion percentage will go up when we have guys who can get open and he doesn’t have to throw the ball away. The fact that he can routinely scramble for 4-5 seconds and still have nobody open is a glaring indictment of the receivers. I’ve seen plenty of QBs I would call inaccurate, Josh is not one of them. Sucks that the narrative continues based solely on stats. 

 

If I had to rank the root causes of his incompletions it would go something like this:

 

1. Pass intentionally thrown away

2. Receiver failed to make a play

3. Pass defended

4. Pass misfired

5. Miscommunication 

 

The adjusted stats quoted in the article already account for these.

[buffaloboyinATL]

Judging solely by what I have seen, not by any metrics or statistical analysis, Allen is a QB that will be fun to watch, as well as one who will occasionally do things no-one else can do, followed by screwing up things everyone else should be able to do.  Brett Favre comes to mind.  I am hoping that this style, when surrounded by a more talented supporting cast, will not only make for a fun offense to watch, but also one that can win enough games to be in the playoff mix for years to come.  He will likely be more of a high risk, high reward player, but that is not necessarily a bad thing.

 

Buckle up Bills fans, we are at the beginning of a fun roller coaster ride, with plenty of highs and lows and twists and turns along the way...

 

 

Edited December 28, 2018 by buffaloboyinATL

[Doc]

Get Allen some help on offense and a full off/pre-season to be the man and then analyze his play.  He's a one-man show right now.

[Alphadawg7]

It’s everything we already knew.  His accuracy will absolutely go up, and I believe significantly, when we revamp the offense.  Couple things this article and ones like it don’t factor in:

 

1.  He was a multi-sport athlete in HS and never committed fully to football.  Which is why he wasn’t really recruited.  He didn’t start really learning the game until he was at a Jr. College and Wyoming.  Not exactly the Harvard’s of studying football, so he hasn’t really had high quality coaching before the NFL.

 

2.  Since finishing college, Josh has shown significant growth in short periods of time and done so multiple times now.  In just short stint with Palmer he made substantial improvements that allowed him to wow people and move up draft boards.  Since coming to Buffalo, he went from “needs to sit” a year very quickly into “we got to have him on the field”.  He also got a lot better while he was out several weeks hurt.  So he keeps showing that with better coaching he’s growing and improving.

 

3.  Anyone analyzing his SEASON stats are completely missing the ability to see improvement.  I would rather see his PFF stats from before he was hurt compared to his stats since returning from injury.  That’s how you chart growth.  I mean just go look at his accuracy throwing to Kelvin Benjamin early in the year compared to throwing to others, it’s drastcially worse to KB.  So just one example of how his whole season stats together don’t paint an accurate picture of where he is right this moment.

 

4.  It’s been said a million times, but Josh has had nothing to work with at Wyoming or Buffalo in terms of pass protection and talent at the skill positions around him.  It’s really hard for a player to improve on accuracy when you’re always under duress and your receivers suck at getting open.  Talent matters and he’s never been on a team with any around him.  Steve Young stunk for the Bucs then was a top 5 QB all time for 49ers on loaded roster.  And Allen reminds me a lot of Young in how he plays.  

 

5.  His work ethic, intelligence, competitiveness, leadership, and determination are all off the charts already to go along with all those physical gifts.  

 

Everyone knows there are things he must improve, just like any young QB.  He has a lot of work to do still.  However, I think there are a lot of reasons that I mostly stated above to be very optimistic in him developing into a true franchise QB and the cornerstone of this franchise for the next 15 years.

 

I honestly believe we will win the division next year if we can add the right pieces around him this offseason.  If not for a Clay drop and ST blunder, Josh would have been 6-2 as a starter going into NE game.  And had he not gotten hurt, he probably wins the Hou game and would have been 7-2 going into that NE game.  And that’s considering him being a rookie learning to read defenses, learning better throwing mechanics, the many drops he has had, poor protection, penalties on the OL, no run game, guys who can’t get open consistently on routes, guys who don’t win contested tight passes, etc.   

 

GO BILLS!  There will be a changing of the guard in the AFCE next year and it will be us.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

to the nattering nabobs of negativity:

 

how is it that through two decades of a miserly owner,  over-the-hill, rearward-looking management, castoff coaches with proven loss records coaching other teams, and JV team QBs with no real potential in the NFL, Bills fans consistently "circled the wagons" and found a way to "billieve" in bad teams …

 

but now that we have an owner who puts football before profits, a young, forward-looking management team and coaching staff with a proven track record of getting us into the playoffs after 17 years of other peoples' failure, and a franchise QB who has signs of potentially being one of the greats, all you can repeat like a mantra of self-flagellation is:

"woe, destruction, death and decay!"

 

please follow another team.

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/

 

 

Some excerpts:

 

"At PFF, one of our advanced metrics of tracking quarterback play is called adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws where the QB is hit on his release. Allen ranks last among qualified QBs with a 62.1 adjusted completion percentage, and when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage plummets to 45.2 percent (he’s the only QB at less than 57.0 percent in terms of adjusted completion percentage under pressure)."

 

"He’s struggled with his accuracy when targeting players who are in tight coverage: His 39.0 adjusted completion percentage on throws to receivers who are either in tight coverage, have a defender closing in on them or have just a step of separation on their coverage defender also ranks last.

 

"In relative terms, he’s also been one of the least efficient QBs when it comes to hitting the target when the receiver is either open or wide open, with his 85.0 adjusted completion percentage on those throws ranking 38^th. His accuracy struggles don’t really favor any specific depth of the field either, they’ve persisted all over. Allen ranks 32^ndamong QBs with an 82.1 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling no more than nine yards in the air; he ranks 37^thwith a 52.9 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling between 10 and 19 yards in the air; and he ranks 32^nd with a 32.4 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air.

 

"In addition to adjusted completion percentage, one of our more advanced quarterback statistics at PFF involved a process in which we chart every throw for accuracy, allowing us to further break down a QBs ball placement beyond completion percentage to see who’s placing the ball accurately – hitting receivers in stride, leading them away from defenders – compared to passers who are getting catchable balls to their playmakers – making a receiver reach back across his body to catch a ball, taking away YAC opportunities – and those who are throwing uncatchable balls.

 

"When we break down the throws from those 39 qualified QBs, Allen ranks 37^th with 53.9 percent of his passes falling into the accurate bucket (the NFL average is 61.9 percent)."

 

It should be noted they also loved his running and his downfield aggressiveness, as well as his arm strength and athleticism. Also had a McDermott quote expressing satisfaction with how he's developing.

 

 

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/24/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-new-england-patriots/

 

Also a good article from Kubiak on how well he did against Belichick's defences. Kubiak's been consistently positive in saying that Josh is learning, a good thing to stress when dealing with a rookie's performance, and says it continued against the Pats.

Like I said cut the guy make everyone on this board happy and let him go to an offensive staff that knows how to utilize his skill set like a McDaniels since half the Bills free agents wind up in New England might as well give them their future qb as well ?

[Ramza86]

I mean...thats pretty much where we are at.

 

We see him make some monster plays. His % is low...but from what I notice...his completions are pretty IMPORTANT. I feel like that might be something that seems hard to account for. Idk how many times hes completed a 20 yard pass on a 2nd and 20 or something of that nature. 

 

So lets see if he can pick up the accuracy or at least continue to make his throws IMPORTANT and show some gradual improvement as the team improves. 

[hondo in seattle]

Thanks for posting, Thurm.  

 

While some of the details are interesting, I don't think this article tells us anything we don't already know.   The more basic stats (like completion percentage) - and our own eyes - have already informed us that Josh has not been an accurate passer this season.

Josh's accuracy this year is not the real debate.  The more meaningful debate is how much he'll improve as a QB from Year 1 to Year 2.  I have not heard a convincing argument from either side.   Some say accuracy is a genetic hand-eye thing that does't ever get better.  Others say there are a lot more factors to completion percentage than precision with the ball: biomechanics, predictable & precise route running by the WRs, the ability to find the open guy (easiest target), and so on.  

 

Certainly some QBs have improved upon their Year 1 completion percentage.  Some have not.  Personally, I really don't know what to expect from Josh next year.

 

 

[thebandit27]

Not too many surprises in there.

 

For me, Allen's biggest issue is that the game still moves too fast for him. He'll need to show improvement (which isn't to say he'll be all the way there) next season if he's to start hitting more tight-window throws.

 

That, and he has to learn that it's okay to play the long game--he tries to do way too much. I get it; he was the entire offense at Wyoming, and it's no different here. Doesn't make it right.

[RoyBatty is alive]

I try to be optimistic and use all the commonly known Josh Allen accuracy excuses (rookie, terrible wrs, terible O Line, dropped balls etc) but the reality is going back to high school at every level J Allen has had accuracy issues. 

 

So it comes down to one thing, can he learn.be coaches up.  Can you improve on accuracy, some "experts" say you can with better footwork/mechanics, others insist you can only improve very slightly.  We will see what will happen with J Allen.

[dakrider]

For Allen to be more successful statistically - he has to settle down into the more traditional QB role.  And by that I mean making more of the quick plays for 5 yard gains.  One of his weaknesses (to some) is he doesn't seem to like throwing the ball on those type of plays and as noted, likes to try and extend plays and go for receivers more downfield.  Part of that is learning to accept the play that is there, but on 3rd down and long, I would rather go for the first down than get 5 yards and punt.   

The other part of this is go look at the Bills running game at least these last 5 games has been mostly terrible.  The receivers have done very little to help as well.  Its been all Allen or nothing.  Earlier in the year the Bills were getting killed on penalties, Allen had several good pass plays that were called back and they had a lot of 3rd and longs.  Now its been lack of running game and just overall poor team play such as dropped balls or turnovers, missed field goals and poor special teams play that is keeping them down.  

All of this has made Allen try to do to much on some plays.  Sometimes that has been running more than he should be, and sometimes that is him making those desperate throws that end up being intercepted.  And as we all also know, Allen did enter the NFL as a fairly raw rookie QB, by NFL standards.  

 

So you have an inexperienced QB who is trying to do more than he can, and one guy can't beat a team.  I watched some great QB's in the past who could propel their teams but only if the rest of the team did their part as well.  When breakdowns occur those great QB's would look terrible at times. 

If the offense can improve then so will Allens stats as well.   But after seeing all the weaknesses in the Bills offense this year,  next year is going to take a lot more than Allen having good stats.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

3.  Anyone analyzing his SEASON stats are completely missing the ability to see improvement.  I would rather see his PFF stats from before he was hurt compared to his stats since returning from injury.  That’s how you chart growth.  I mean just go look at his accuracy throwing to Kelvin Benjamin early in the year compared to throwing to others, it’s drastcially worse to KB.  So just one example of how his whole season stats together don’t paint an accurate picture of where he is right this moment.   

 

GO BILLS!  There will be a changing of the guard in the AFCE next year and it will be us.

 

I am quoting the two specific bits of your post I am responding directly to. Firstly, in respect of point 3 - it wasn't Josh Allen's accuracy that was much worse to Kelvin Benjamin - it was his completion percentage. At times the PFF article distinguishes between completion percentage and accuracy and at other times it conflates the two. Josh Allen has still this season suffered from the same issue - that I termed 'natural' inaccuracy' - that he suffered from in college. Throws where there is no obvious technical reason for an inaccurate pass and yet the pass is inaccurate in any event. What has become evident is that it happens less frequently when he is comfortable and in rhythm - which is probably normal for all QBs - but it is not as easy as Josh is accurate in a clean pocket and inaccurate under pressure. It is something less obviously tangible than that.

 

Now what has happened since the injury is he has looked more comfortable and assured as a rule. Maybe that is the old adage about the game slowing down for him and I think that has led to a reduction in the instances of that natural inaccuracy rearing its ugly head. So I think there has been an improvement but again it requires more than an analytical breakdown of completion percentages to certain receivers or completion percentages under pressure to really see it and understand it. Josh Allen more than maybe any other Quarterback around is the poster boy for the phrase "no substitute for watching film." You have to watch him and go back and look at every throw.

 

I don't think Josh Allen is ever going to be a precision passer. He is not going to be Tom Brady, or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But that doesn't mean he can't be an excellent Quarterback. Cam Newton is the often held up example of a guy who wasn't coming out and still isn't a precision passer and that is true and he led his team to a Superbowl berth. But equally Big Ben has never been a precision passer either. He is accurate enough to succeed and to have been borderline elite pretty much his whole career but he is not precise in the way I'd say Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even someone like a Matt Ryan is. Josh has definitely shown some improvement with experience and comfort in running the offense and I am absolutely certain his completion percentage will improve next year if the Bills put a better supporting cast around him. And I expect that improved supporting cast and increased comfort will lead to less natural inaccuracy. But I am not sure he is ever going to eradicate it completely - just like Cam hasn't and just like Ben still has his moments too.

 

As to your final line. I do think the changing of the guard is happening..... I expect New England to still be competitive for a division title and playoff berth in 2019 but far from the shoe in they have been in the past and beyond 2019 I think they may slip off the pace. The threat comes from the Jets. Sam Darnold like Allen seems to have returned from his injury a better Quarterback than he was before. His performance against the Packers last week is the best single game performance from any of the rookie QBs this year. Ultimately who ends up with supremacy over the AFCE for the next decade probably comes down to which of those young Quarterbacks ends up the better and, to a lesser extent, how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them - from defense, to weapons, to protection and to coaching.  

[BillsFan1988]

1 hour ago, 17years&waiting said:

I'd be curious how many of these "contested" passes are the WR's not making plays on the ball, and are not necessarily Allen's fault.  It's hard to tell how they decide whether or not the pass was the QB's fault, but in my mind, I haven't seen that many passes that are Allen's fault.

 

Take for instance the Foster play in the sun against the Patriots: how does that count for PFF?  It's technically not a drop, because I don't think Foster touched it, but it was also maybe the best deep pass I've seen Allen throw this year.  Does it count as "inaccurate" in this rating system?

its counted  as a completion in adjusted completion percentage

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am quoting the two specific bits of your post I am responding directly to. Firstly, in respect of point 3 - it wasn't Josh Allen's accuracy that was much worse to Kelvin Benjamin - it was his completion percentage. At times the PFF article distinguishes between completion percentage and accuracy and at other times it conflates the two. Josh Allen has still this season suffered from the same issue - that I termed 'natural' inaccuracy' - that he suffered from in college. Throws where there is no obvious technical reason for an inaccurate pass and yet the pass is inaccurate in any event. What has become evident is that it happens less frequently when he is comfortable and in rhythm - which is probably normal for all QBs - but it is not as easy as Josh is accurate in a clean pocket and inaccurate under pressure. It is something less obviously tangible than that.

 

Now what has happened since the injury is he has looked more comfortable and assured as a rule. Maybe that is the old adage about the game slowing down for him and I think that has led to a reduction in the instances of that natural inaccuracy rearing its ugly head. So I think there has been an improvement but again it requires more than an analytical breakdown of completion percentages to certain receivers or completion percentages under pressure to really see it and understand it. Josh Allen more than maybe any other Quarterback around is the poster boy for the phrase "no substitute for watching film." You have to watch him and go back and look at every throw.

 

I don't think Josh Allen is ever going to be a precision passer. He is not going to be Tom Brady, or Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But that doesn't mean he can't be an excellent Quarterback. Cam Newton is the often held up example of a guy who wasn't coming out and still isn't a precision passer and that is true and he led his team to a Superbowl berth. But equally Big Ben has never been a precision passer either. He is accurate enough to succeed and to have been borderline elite pretty much his whole career but he is not precise in the way I'd say Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or even someone like a Matt Ryan is. Josh has definitely shown some improvement with experience and comfort in running the offense and I am absolutely certain his completion percentage will improve next year if the Bills put a better supporting cast around him. And I expect that improved supporting cast and increased comfort will lead to less natural inaccuracy. But I am not sure he is ever going to eradicate it completely - just like Cam hasn't and just like Ben still has his moments too.

 

As to your final line. I do think the changing of the guard is happening..... I expect New England to still be competitive for a division title and playoff berth in 2019 but far from the shoe in they have been in the past and beyond 2019 I think they may slip off the pace. The threat comes from the Jets. Sam Darnold like Allen seems to have returned from his injury a better Quarterback than he was before. His performance against the Packers last week is the best single game performance from any of the rookie QBs this year. Ultimately who ends up with supremacy over the AFCE for the next decade probably comes down to which of those young Quarterbacks ends up the better and, to a lesser extent, how well the two franchises put the right pieces around them - from defense, to weapons, to protection and to coaching.  

 

I agree and the KB point was just one minimal example of how it’s unfair to look at his season stats to identify growth.  I think everyone could and should agree that Josh is a better QB now than he was before he got hurt, and that goes beyond that stat sheet like you said.

 

And yeah, I agree with you that Jets are a threat, but I think we have a better foundation over all as we have a playoff ready Defense and IMHO a better coaching staff and GM.  Both teams though have the most importance development piece (young promising QB) and a ton of cap room.  So they certainly are a team with lots of upside right now too, but I feel more confident in our ability to turn the corner than I do in theirs.  

[yungmack]

33 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

to the nattering nabobs of negativity:

 

how is it that through two decades of a miserly owner,  over-the-hill, rearward-looking management, castoff coaches with proven loss records coaching other teams, and JV team QBs with no real potential in the NFL, Bills fans consistently "circled the wagons" and found a way to "billieve" in bad teams …

 

but now that we have an owner who puts football before profits, a young, forward-looking management team and coaching staff with a proven track record of getting us into the playoffs after 17 years of other peoples' failure, and a franchise QB who has signs of potentially being one of the greats, all you can repeat like a mantra of self-flagellation is:

"woe, destruction, death and decay!"

 

please follow another team.

 

 

 "Nattering nabobs of negativity"? How old are you? That's an Agnew line from nearly 50 years ago. By the tone of your post, you've reached that fabled age of "Get off my lawn-ism." And btw, it wasn't so much that Ralph was miserly. It was more about him believing he knew more about football than any of the football people he hired.

[formerlyofCtown]

1 hour ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

It's an article pointing out some stats that I figured were true so.. no comment lol. I'll defer to the article's points and agree with the contents. Apologies for the cold take everyone.

 

I'll suppose I'll note that Allen may be inaccurate at times, but the fact that he seems to be consistently seeing and attempting to hit the right open read downfield, accurately or inaccurately, is at least refreshing (as the article points out lol)

 

Many of his 1st half performances (and a couple of entire games) are what confuse some that are ignoring stats and pointing to a few 4th quarter heroics and dropped balls. He starts out very poorly in some games.. like the Lions, in which we eventually won and swept all the problems quarters 1-3 under the rug. Stats matter. They tell us several missed plays on the field we otherwise ignore after a good 4th quarter.

Thats good and bad.  He needs to step up his game in the first 3 wuarters which I believe he will and he seems to be at his best when the game is on the line.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

21 minutes ago, yungmack said:

 "Nattering nabobs of negativity"? How old are you? That's an Agnew line from nearly 50 years ago. By the tone of your post, you've reached that fabled age of "Get off my lawn-ism." And btw, it wasn't so much that Ralph was miserly. It was more about him believing he knew more about football than any of the football people he hired.

and I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling kids!

47 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

  Personally, I really don't know what to expect from Josh next year.

 

 

I expect he will win football games.  

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:

and I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for you meddling kids!

 

Nattering nabobs of negativism to be 100% correct.

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Boatdrinks said:

This isn’t anything we didn’t already know, but some may find it interesting. Anyone watching knows that while Allen has made progress, he still has a long way to go. He’s yet to have a game where he just looks truly efficient as a passer. The Bills aren’t out of the woods just yet. Allen shows promise, but he has to make some pretty big improvements to his game. If he doesn’t make the leap from year one to year two, talk of finding another QB will continue. Mayfield and to a somewhat lesser degree Darnold, have shown to be on an upward trajectory as QBs and seem to have more certain futures. It seems Allen, Rosen and even Jackson are still largely unknowns and the needle can move either way going forward. Simple numbers may never be a great answer on Allen, just the eye test and most importantly wins and losses when he starts. 

 

Basically his baseline is a different version of Tyrod that is less accurate but a bit more playmaker in general especially arm wise. Issue with that is you looking at 6-10 wins max. They drafted him for 10-13 level wins. I like what I have seen and feel confident he can improve to have them in the race next year but I'd prefer to be the one driving the car to the post season not chasing like we have for two decades.

Edited December 27, 2018 by corta765