Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

You're responding to someone who felt Winston was going to be the God of QBs and stated he'd trade an entire draft for him so keep that in mind.  I'm afraid you've hit the nail on the head.  There are some who have confirmation bias; they said Allen would not work and will hang onto anything to support that because they would rather brag about being right than see the kid succeed.  Of course you also have the other extreme, and equally invalid.

 

I think any objective appraisal of Allen would say a couple things.  One, he has work to do to become a consistent NFL QB.  Second, he's shown more that many thought he would as a rookie.  Third, he needs more help around him to reach his potential.

 

I think history tells us first round QBs have around a 50% chance of success.  Allen is no exception.

[The Wiz]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

Come on bandit.  You know better.  Someone will find something to be upset about.

 

In terms of stats, he's been pretty bad.  In terms of the eye test IMO, he's done more than any other QB in the past few years with less talent around him.  I'll say this, watching EJ, Peterman and Taylor over the past few years, any time there was an offensive penalty it basically felt like they were going 3 and out without question simply because they all went with the easy checkdowns.  Allen doesn't go for completions, he goes for the 1st down.  It's a double edge sword for sure but I like the way he has been competing.

[jrober38]

13 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

If the team produces points and wins games I'll be happy, but we're not doing that. 

Edited December 29, 2018 by jrober38

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

If the team produces points and wins games I'll be happy, but we're not doing that. 

 

The difference between you and I is that I watched every throw from his Wyoming career multiple times--I don't need to read someone else's scouting report and then look for traits that match it.

 

You again are showing that you are married to your preconception--you've made definitive declarations about him and are invested in that outcome. That's a shame, because it probably prevents you from having any objectivity on the issue.

 

I mean, you're here telling me that I've anointed him as the guy, when I've done nothing of the sort. I have, however, called out much of the board for their confirmation biases.

[BananaB]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

Who? 

[jrober38]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The difference between you and I is that I watched every throw from his Wyoming career multiple times--I don't need to read someone else's scouting report and then look for traits that match it.

 

You again are showing that you are married to your preconception--you've made definitive declarations about him and are invested in that outcome. That's a shame, because it probably prevents you from having any objectivity on the issue.

 

I mean, you're here telling me that I've anointed him as the guy, when I've done nothing of the sort. I have, however, called out much of the board for their confirmation biases.

 

I thought Allen would be bad, and he's been the worst passer in the league among starting QBs.

 

You're acting like he's outperformed what I thought he'd do, but he's been exactly as I expected which is why I'm so hard on him.

 

You guys get so bent out of shape for me not giving the worst QB in the league a pass. It's so weird. 

[GoBills808]

21 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.

Just FYI: the guy you’re responding to said last page Newton’s completion% this season is due to McCaffrey and not new OC Norv Turner despite the fact that McCaffrey was there last year and that they’re running almost a completely revamped offensive system in Carolina. Wouldn’t bother.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, BananaB said:

 

Who? 

 

Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc, etc. 

 

Big, strong, mobile, big armed, bad quarterbacks. 

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc, etc. 

 

Big, strong, mobile, big armed, bad quarterbacks. 

Winston too.  The guy who you have traded an entire draft for.  But we should bow down at your wisdom.

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I thought Allen would be bad, and he's been the worst passer in the league among starting QBs.

 

You're acting like he's outperformed what I thought he'd do, but he's been exactly as I expected which is why I'm so hard on him.

 

You guys get so bent out of shape for me not giving the worst QB in the league a pass. It's so weird. 

 

Actually, you said he'd be terrible. 

 

You said he'd be the same guy as he was at Wyoming.

 

He's neither of those things.

 

You also call him the worst starting QB in the league as though it's a fact and not an opinion.

 

You're either incapable of discerning opinion from fact, or you truly are so invested in your evaluation that you won't consider the idea that you could be wrong.

 

If Allen were anywhere near as bad as you say, he'd be out of the league by now. Easily.

 

Instead, he's actually outperformed the rookie efforts of guys like Jared Goff and Mitchell Trubiksy. But don't let that get in the way of crowning yourself right.

 

Allen has looked like a rookie--which makes sense. So have Rosen and Darnold and Jackson (and Mayfield at times).

 

So let's see here: Allen is somehow the same guy as he was at Wyoming, but he also performed better as a rookie than guys that were supposedly better than him in college.

 

Those two ideas are not in concert with each other 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

Jacksonville did it with an elite defense.

 

Jax last year had #5 offense on points for.  #1 rush yards.  Elite D helped, but was far from the whole story.

I think the point folks are trying to make is there's more to a team's offensive success than passer rating.

 

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

Baltimore is 14th in scoring so I'm not sure what stats you're looking at. 

 

Your claim was " You can't expect the Bills to be in the top half of the league in scoring without a team QB Rating above 90... "

14th with an 84 rating fits that criterion

 

I'll give you another:

2012 SB champions Ravens.  Joe Flacco 59.7% completion, passer rating 87.7

[BananaB]

17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Blake Bortles, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, etc, etc. 

 

Big, strong, mobile, big armed, bad quarterbacks. 

 

I wouldn’t compare any of those guys to Allen. All had a totally different highschool and college background. All have some of same attributes  but none are even close to Allen’s level. 

 

I don’t think you can compare anybody to Allen. Kid is a prospect like no other.  I do believe if we build an offensive line and get a few solid WRs we can win a lot of games with him with him. If he does improve on some of weaknesses along the way I think he can make this team great.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

58 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think any objective appraisal of Allen would say a couple things.  One, he has work to do to become a consistent NFL QB.  Second, he's shown more that many thought he would as a rookie.  Third, he needs more help around him to reach his potential.

 

Yes on all counts.  And in addition, I don't think anyone saw the rushing ability.

 

58 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think history tells us first round QBs have around a 50% chance of success.  Allen is no exception.

 

At best.  I've seen several analyses and done one of my own.  All slice and dice different ways and reach about the same conclusion - 50% at best, maybe a bit higher in the first 3 picks, maybe less chance later on.

 

And that's defining success as "a guy who can legit play in the NFL with the right pieces around him", not "the second coming of Big Ben with a dash of Aaron Rodgers on the side"

 

 

[JoPar_v2]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

Allen is the same guy now as he was at Wyoming. Read a scouting report. It's all the stuff you see him do on a weekly basis. 

 

Guys like Allen never work out. So far he's done zero to change my opinion. He's the worst passer in the league in most categories and many of you are convinced he's the guy. I simply don't get it. He's a good athlete and he tries hard, but he leaves way too much to be desired as a passer. 

 

If the team produces points and wins games I'll be happy, but we're not doing that. 

 

I mean, Allen certainly not great; in fact you can (and do) argue he’s not even good yet. But to say he’s the same exact guy that he was at Wyoming is a bit off-base. By all accounts, Allen’s footwork has improved immensely since he’s got into the league. And that is one of the most identified weaknesses of his coming out of college. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yes on all counts.  And in addition, I don't think anyone saw the rushing ability.

 

 

At best.  I've seen several analyses and done one of my own.  All slice and dice different ways and reach about the same conclusion - 50% at best, maybe a bit higher in the first 3 picks, maybe less chance later on.

 

And that's defining success as "a guy who can legit play in the NFL with the right pieces around him", not "the second coming of Big Ben with a dash of Aaron Rodgers on the side"

 

 

Good points.  I don't know if he makes it or not.  What I have a problem with in this and other threads are:  

1.  Reactive belief of stats without a true understanding of what they may or may not mean

2. Folks claiming some Nostradamus-like insight as to the future of this kid without any real idea what they're talking about, confusing their opinion with fact.

 

All rookie QBs go through growth periods, some longer than others.  Some have better teams around them, some not.  The last and maybe only rookie QB I can think of that had "it" from day one was Marino.  All others had ups and downs as they figured things out.

 

Let Allen play, let him learn.  Quit dissecting every single pass as if that definitively makes him great or terrible.  

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, 2003Contenders said:

I find all of this over-analysis of a rookie QB By the pundits to be a bit silly., but here are a few thoughts:

 

1. I remember back in the 2005-2010 timeframe when the Bills would scrimmage the Packers in the preseason. Prior to the 2006 season, the two teams went toe-to-toe, and I remember at the time being so happy that the Bills had made the move up in the 2004 draft to get JP Losman rather than wait until 2005 to take Aaron Rodgers. During those 2006 drills and scrimmage, Losman (going into his 3rd season) looked so much more polished than did Rodgers (going into his second year). Doh!

 

2. For whatever reason, Josh Allen was a very polarizing figure headed into this 2018 draft. I am not sure why. Maybe it had something to do with the old guard (arm strength, measureables, prototypical physical traits, etc.) versus the new guard (analytics). The old guard cited Allen as a generational talent; the new guard did not see a great translation to the NFL based on his college stats. Guys like Mel Kiper and Phil Simms thought he should be the #1 overall pick. Other pundits did not even view him as a 1st round pick. The typical book on him was that he was going to be a "Boom or Bust" NFL QB. 

 

3. This polarization has led many of these pundits to remain steadfast (stubborn) in their evaluation. Rookie QBs are going to make rookie mistakes -- and the Allen detractors love clinging to the missteps he has made in each of his games. Of course, the Allen apologists are happy to blame every mistake he makes on the play calling, poor WRs, OL, etc.

 

4. The completion percentage remains a thing that the detractors refuse to let go. There certainly is some merit to the fact that Allen does not throw with the precision that a Drew Brees, for example, does. He didn't at Wyoming, and he has yet to demonstrate that he will in the NFL. That said, there are some mitigating factors, including a poor supporting cast. The one thing that no one wants to point out is that the types of passes that Allen thrives on are by their very nature high-risk, downfield passes, which naturally leads to a lower completion percentage. Trent Green and Bruce Ariens talked about this in the New England game. Josh's tendency is to always want to make that big play, when sometimes the smaller, more "sure thing" play is available.  Once he starts to better understand this, he will get better AND his completion % will improve. Again, he may never be a high 60's percentage passer, but that does not necessarily mean he cannot be successful.

 

5. Josh Allen really has been thrown to the wolves. I was one of those who believed going into the season that based on his rawness he would be a good candidate to sit the entire rookie season out and watch from the sidelines. I feared that (in addition to his lack of polish) that the less-than-adequate supporting cast would place him in an impossible position to succeed. That has largely been the case. However, rather than having his confidence shot the young QB has done a remarkable job of remaining poised and rising above it all. I like what I see in terms of the body language, confidence and leadership. Since returning from his injury, there has been little to no running game to speak of and with less-than-adequate receivers around him, Allen has had to do a great deal on his own. His future success will depend on finding that middle ground of competing on every play -- but at the same time learning to take what the defense is willing to give him.

 

6. One thing no one talks much about  are the intangibles that I just alluded to. From what I have seen so far, Allen has these in spades. You can sense that his teammates -- even veterans like Zo and Shady -- love his competitive leadership. And it doesn't sound like the "wishful thinking" sound bites we used to get in the days of Losman or EJ. He also seems to be very coachable and able to learn from his mistakes on the fly. (The Cover1 guys did a great job of breaking this down when going over the film from the New England game). The guys that have been busts (Leaf, Russell, etc.) all had fatal mental or character flaws. I don't see that with Allen. The physical goods are obvious, he seems like a smart young man -- and by all accounts he is willing to work to get better. I am not saying that the "Boom" tag will ever apply (although I hope it does) -- I just don't see the dreaded "Bust" tag ever coming into play. That is provided, of course, that Allen can avoid reckless play and protect himself from injury.

 

7. I must admit that I was ambivalent about the Josh Allen pick. I do not pretend to be a master of scouting college QBs and projecting whether or not they will ever evolve into being a quality NFL QB. To those who loved the pick, I say be patient. He is far from a finished product -- and the Bills would do well to set him up for success by improving his supporting cast in the off-season. To those who hated the pick, I say to also be patient and remember that even the most vocal Allen supporters acknowledged that he would have to go through some growing pains before getting better. If he can master the small things (game management stuff), he has so much upside with the big things (downfield threat and mobility) to truly be special.

 

Well said! 

[Jrb1979]

IMO they should stop trying to make him a pocket passer as its something he is not. The best games he has played is the ones he ran the ball a lot with some passes thrown in. 

[WideNine]

2 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

IMO they should stop trying to make him a pocket passer as its something he is not. The best games he has played is the ones he ran the ball a lot with some passes thrown in. 

 

Not sure they are trying to make him a pocket passer as there have been plenty of designed roll-outs and QB option plays called.

 

There are times (the NE game is a perfect example) where a QB is kept in the pocket by the defensive design of your opponent. Belichick loves doing that to rookie QBs because pretty much all rookies have a comfort level of falling back to running the ball when they do not like what they see or get pressured in the pocket. Getting QBs in general and rookie QB's in particular to be "uncomfortable" and out of rhythm is the goal. Also, if I were a betting man and had to bet on Buffalo's receivers catching a deep throw or Allen running wild down the field, the safer bet would be to guard against the latter and trust your DB's and the Bills receivers to not make the catches.

 

It is games like NE that force the need for honing patience and pocket-passing skills. Josh will need to be able to adjust to taking what defenses give him - if it is underneath options from the pocket, so be it. Having some kind of quasi-consistent running game will also help build that patience and the sense that the entire offense is not predicated entirely on his ability to push the ball downfield with throws.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

It's bad enough that when I watch NFL games I see great catch after great catch that I NEVER see for the Bills.  But now as the college Bowl season is heating up I've seen more spectacular catches by the college kids then I see by Bills skill players.  It seems that like the NFL all it takes for these college QB's is to get the ball near their receivers and these play makers do the rest.

 

Anyone who underestimates the impact of NOT having skill players who can make these kinds of catches is fooling themselves. 

[Zerovoltz]

......I've seen enough of Allen to believe that he offers HOPE still.  You are going to upgrade the roster.  He is going to get an offseason to work on issues.  He DOES have intangibles, can run, leadership etc....  The Broncos Giants drafted Saquon Barkely and the Broncos took Bradley Chubb in the top 5 of the past draft.  BOTH of those guys are very very good football players.  And both the Broncos and the Giants SUCK.  They didn't have a QB, they didn't draft a QB, and now they are facing a 2019 Draft that MIGHT have ONE QB (Haskins) worth going after....if they can even get him.  2020 is a LONG LONG way away.  I would much rather be the Bills heading into 2019 with Allen, the hope that he provides...the idea you are going to load up and try and be great as opposed to the certain dread of facing another season of Case Keenum or Eli Manning...KNOWING there is NO HOPE.  Brady is about done.  You know Tannehill isn't a difference maker....it's the bills and Jets for AFC supremecy for the next 5 years at least.  

 

There is A LOT to look forward to in 2019.  If you hadn't taken Allen in 2018, you'd be sitting here knowing 19 was going to be a waste of time...no QB to get, etc etc....What the Bills have that so many teams do not heading into 2019 is a chance to be something good and special...the Broncos, Giants, Bucs, Dolphins, Lions, Bengals, Jags....they don't have that.  Dread. Misery.  Despiar.....no hope.  Allen = hope.