Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[WideNine]

17 hours ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Here's the thing about Allen, he has this powerful arm, but he's made fewer deep plays than any of his draft peers.  Of the plays he has made, two of the biggest, those two to Foster, were on broken coverages, NOT on Foster beating someone man-to-man with Allen dropping a perfect throw, quite the contrary.  Rather on broken coverages with Foster wide open, great throws both times, but the point being that plays like that aren't the types that competitive play can be built on/around.  I mean what kind of coach says, "OK, at some point they're going to let their guard down or make a mistake, and that's when we strike and score."  Who says that?  No one, pre or post game much less in the lockerroom.  

 

It's clear that the focus is on beating the other team at the point-of-attack and man-to-man as is the case with the skill positions in the passing game.  Yet those plays were not like that.  

 

But I digress.  The one things I"ve heard few mention is how horrific Allen's game is in the red zone where the deep ball is taken away.  

 

 

That TO/Fumble rate has to drop.  

Allen's efficiency in the red zone has to skyrocket. 

His short-medium game absolutely must make an enormous leap next year.  

 

 

 

Here's the thing about the above:

 

Anyone watching Allen knows he has had more very deep passes and deep passes for TD's dropped than any of his draft peers so I wont even debate that point as it would be silly.

 

All teams use man to man, or some man with safety help over top, just a matter of degree. Those passes to Foster were not "broken coverages" if you are using that term as most do - to represent confusion by the defense and no one covering Foster.

 

Those completions you reference were Foster beating his man on his route as well as beating safety help over top too (when its been there) with Allen throwing a perfect throw. With all due respect, if you do not realize that those were deep post routes by design then you do not know what you are looking at. Foster never breaks stride, takes his DB straight up the field and loses him as soon as he makes his break. Foster has really good speed.

 

• Turn over on downs versus TD's - fix the dropped passes and that changes like magic.
• Allen's efficiency in the red zone improves when we have a running game that can both occasionally score and also force teams to respect some play action. No need for drastic Allen changes here - just some support and balance in the offense.
• Allen's short game - one comment you made that I almost agree with, but I will add a twist. I think Allen can make most or all of the short throws, but is consistently looking beyond the sticks. He just needs some coaching and experience to shift to taking more of the easy shots that defenses are giving him underneath and that comes with experience making pre-snap reads, a better supporting cast so he doesn't feel like he has to do it all, and time.

 

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

My concern is currently based around the fact that Allen is the same guy now as he was in college.  

 

He makes wow throws, but misses easy ones. He has a huge arm, but he regularly misses wide open deep targets. He looks to run to quickly and doesn't read the field quickly. His accuracy and ball placement are suspect a lot of the time, and ultimately he struggles to complete more than half his throws on a weekly basis. Overall his efficiency as a passer is terrible, as it was in college. 

 

He needs to take a massive step forward next year. If his QB Rating isn't above 90 with a completion percentage around about 60% or higher, I'm moving on to someone else in 2020 when there should be a bunch of really good QBs in the draft. 

 

That last paragraph is a microcosm of what's so mind-boggling about the Allen discussion.

 

You care more about his passer rating and completion percentage than whether or not the team is scoring points and winning.

 

If he's a 58% passer with an 89 rating and the team is scoring 28 PPG and goes 10-6 you'll still be ready to move on from him?

 

If that's legitimately true, then your football team building priorities are way out of whack. No offense intended.

[JESSEFEFFER]

In 2016, Cam Newton's 5th NFL year, arguably his worst, he had numbers that are very comparable to Josh's rookie numbers.   I don't know why I can't copy/paste here without it coming out a mess but that's a different problem.  Similar completion %, Y/A and W/L%.  Cam threw more often but with both focused on attempts further down the field.  Josh has run more often and more successfully.  What does this mean?  If Cam had kept that up, he'd have been replaced by now.  If Josh doesn't improve he'll be replaced as well. 

 

My expectations are based on the belief  that human beings are rarely great at their jobs the first year in.  They either have the capacity to get better or do not.  They either improve in important, quantifiable ways or fail.  Imo, Josh has that capacity in terms of physical ability, competitiveness and attitude.  The Bills need to take care of the peripherals but I see a guy with every bit of the talent needed in all the meaningful areas.  But then again, I really detest timid, gutless QB play and may be too eager to be high on the future of a physically gifted 22 year old QB who is neither timid or gutless.

[BlueandRed]

Can we stop comparing Josh with Cam? 

 

Apples to apples...

[jrober38]

10 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That last paragraph is a microcosm of what's so mind-boggling about the Allen discussion.

 

You care more about his passer rating and completion percentage than whether or not the team is scoring points and winning.

 

If he's a 58% passer with an 89 rating and the team is scoring 28 PPG and goes 10-6 you'll still be ready to move on from him?

 

If that's legitimately true, then your football team building priorities are way out of whack. No offense intended.

 

What's mind boggling is anyone thinking the two aren't correlated. 

 

Passing efficiency almost always leads to more points on the board. 

 

Top 5 QBs in Passing Efficiency this year:

 

1. Drew Brees - 32.7 PPG

2. Pat Mahomes - 35.3 PPG

3. Russell Wilson - 26.7 PPG

4. Matt Ryan - 25.3 PPG

5. Phil Rivers - 27 PPG

 

You can't expect the Bills to be in the top half of the league in scoring without a team QB Rating above 90...

Edited December 29, 2018 by jrober38

[JESSEFEFFER]

And I'll add this.  Why is Josh Allen an accurate, effective QB throwing to Foster and a terrible QB throwing to Benjamin?  What is the biggest variable there?  Hint: it's not the play calling, the protection, the QB's ability, the weather or anything other than the quality of the receiver.  That's two wildly different conclusions about the same person that is nearly 100% dependent on to whom he is throwing the ball.

[thebandit27]

15 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

What's mind boggling is anyone thinking the two aren't correlated. 

 

Passing efficiency almost always leads to more points on the board. 

 

Top 5 QBs in Passing Efficiency this year:

 

1. Drew Brees - 32.7 PPG

2. Pat Mahomes - 35.3 PPG

3. Russell Wilson - 26.7 PPG

4. Matt Ryan - 25.3 PPG

5. Phil Rivers - 27 PPG

 

You can't expect the Bills to be in the top half of the league in scoring without a team QB Rating above 90...

 

So when Jacksonville finished top 5 in PPG last year with a team passer rating of 84, that was a figment of everyone's imagination?

 

Or how about Baltimore scoring in the top 10 this year with an 84 rating?

 

Nice way of dodging the question by the way 

Edited December 29, 2018 by thebandit27

[HappyDays]

54 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Cam Newton's completion percentage went up 10 points because he threw 123 passes at Christian McCaffrey this season and McCaffrey caught 87% of them. 

 

His accuracy didn't change at all. He just threw more passes to an elite pass catching running back. 

 

I know. That was my point. Completion percentage doesn't equal accuracy. It is honestly the worst metric you can use to evaluate a QB on his own. I much prefer passer rating and YPA as far as traditional metrics go. Of course Allen isn't doing well in those on the whole for his rookie year. IMO the reasons for that are, in order, Allen not reading the field properly, his surrounding cast, and then his accuracy. And I consider his accuracy well below the other two problems.

 

If he was more precise with his ball placement, say on the level of an average NFL QB, I think he'd maybe have 2 more completions per game started. That would be 20 more completions on the year, which would bring his 51.7% completion to 58.5%. Personally I see at least 2 clear drops per game which would have the same effect, and that isn't accounting for the general talent level of his offense which we all know is historically bad. If he was reading defenses on an NFL average level I think he would have an extra 4 completions per game which would be a 65.3% completion even with this useless offense around him. That is what I want to see him improve on. I don't see a ton of passes missed due to poor accuracy, at least relative to a normal NFL offense, but I do see a fair amount of poor reads and easy targets ignored.

 

I recognize that those are all very hypothetical numbers but my eye test tells me his accuracy is not a big concern. If he learns to make the right throw, because his positive plays tend to be 10+ yards at a time, and he is mobile, we will have a very successful offense despite having a QB with below average accuracy.

Edited December 29, 2018 by HappyDays

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Cam Newton's completion percentage went up 10 points because he threw 123 passes at Christian McCaffrey this season and McCaffrey caught 87% of them. 

 

His accuracy didn't change at all. He just threw more passes to an elite pass catching running back. 

 

Also Cam Newton is a much better football player than Josh Allen. He was a transcendent player at Auburn who carried his team to an undefeated season with minimal NFL talent around him through an SEC schedule. 

 

If Newton is the only model Allen has to mimic we're probably in trouble considering how the NFL is constantly becoming more and more pass happy. 

 

He's not a train wreck. His running ability gives him a fairly high floor.

 

However as a passer, he's not even remotely close to being average relative to other NFL starters, and if he wants to survive in this league he's going to have to figure out that side of the game fast. Getting his 150-200 times a year (runs, sacks, QB hits) is eventually going to take a toll and he'll need to figure out how to operate out of the pocket, which is currently his biggest weakness. 

Wrong. Panthers got Norv Turner is the big difference in Newton’s completion percentage. He’s throwing a lot more from the pocket, shallow routes, a different offense as a whole and as such he’s throwing a bunch of completions.

[JESSEFEFFER]

7 minutes ago, BlueandRed said:

Can we stop comparing Josh with Cam? 

 

Apples to apples...

So if not Cam then who?  Who is his legitimate comparable.  They are both starting NFL QBs so I say they are both "apples."  I'd say Josh is a maybe a Cortland and Cam is more of an Empire.

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

2. Pat Mahomes - 35.3 PPG

 

Yes but Mahomes isn't a precise passer either. That's actually the positive comparison I would use for Allen, not Cam Newton. Mahomes is not slicing up defenses like Brady or Brees. He excels at reading the defense, and he uses his pure athleticism to make up for less than ideal ball placement. And the Chiefs have surrounded him with an offense that can catch slightly off target passes. Kelvin Benjamin didn't go to Kansas City and suddenly learn to catch the ball. He still sucks. I take that as a sign that the offensive talent here is severely hindering Allen's ability to develop because he is the entire offense. At the same time he will need to develop and read the field better or he won't last long. It has nothing to do with his accuracy.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

All fair points to which I agree, though I would assume (perhaps naively) that if PFF were to submit their analysis for peer review that they would also include their methodology so as to not be dismissed right out of the gate. Let's remember they're currently in the business of sports statistics, not academic research, and so they have a vested interest in not disclosing all aspects of their secret sauce. 

 

Absolutely they have a right to keep their "secret sauce" secret.  But the contention was, we can't tell whether or not their analysis would meet the standards of a scientific journal.  And as long as they keep their "secret sauce" secret, it absolutely doesn't and there's why.

 

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

Also, and I don't know this but perhaps you do, are we sure they're not using SportVU cameras or other third party tech to track and break down games like the NBA?

 

I thought, but could be mistaken, that the NFL was very strict about limiting video recording devices and protecting their video copyright, so I thought the answer there was "No".  OTOH, they do credential press photographers and allow both teams to take photographs that get sent down to the sideline.  So I can not know for sure.

 

It would be technically feasible for PFF to train an AI program to detect drops, catches, accurate or inaccurate throws, or to give criteria to a naive audience (Indian cricket fans, say) to assess film.  But as far as I know, that's not what they've done or do. 

 

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

There seems to be a lot of certainty in this thread that their analysis is flawed without much to back that up (and that doesn't mean it isn't flawed obv). Again, just because they didn't disclose doesn't make their methodology wrong.

 

Well, I thought I gave my criteria pretty clearly.  I look at past years of their QB rankings and they don't pass muster with me as far as overall offensive results, or what I've evolved myself to believe are objective QB statistics correlated to team wins.

 

Now I will say as far as the statistics I think are important, Allen falls short.  But he's also a rookie, and most rookies fall short.

 

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

Your point about subjectivity surrounding play calling and design vs. execution is fair. Perhaps they should include that disclaimer with each post. One could surmise that even if Belichick was the grader (and doing so with accurate readings from high tech cameras in each stadium) there would still be an element of the highest form of educated guessing going on. As an aside, did anyone bother to check the credentials of the grader, or are we all just assuming he's an unqualified hack who wouldn't know a drop from a poorly placed throw if it hit him in the face? Surely there's an element of football education which when combined with a little common sense would allow most qualified graders to correctly diagnose what happened the majority of the time. Either way, you're right that on this fact alone, it wouldn't meet the standard.  

 

As far as I know, the identity of PFF's graders and their credentials is part of their "secret sauce" so no one can "bother to check".  If you can find their identity, share.

I think most guys who are breaking down film can correctly identify the routes that are being run and the defensive coverage actually being employed, but almost every route has variants for different defense.  What the guys breaking down film have a harder time knowing, when they see a mistake, is whether, given the coaching, the mistake is on the QB or WR.  It's not quite as bad as seeing an OLman whiff a block and not knowing whether that block was actually his assignment or not, but it's close.

 

One of the things I recall (I think Beane) saying about Allen is that they had gone over each of this throws at Wyoming in the context of the playcall (the implication is they got this info from the coach, or from Allen perhaps?) and looked at whether the ball went where it was supposed to given the playcall.  There are some other tid-bits out there - in "The Wakeup Call" with Kirk Cousins, Kirk goes over one of his "WTF?" throws with Allen (about 3:40 in).  It's clear Allen is careful not to throw anyone under the bus and says "I threw it where I wasn't supposed to", but Cousins gets right to the point "so he felt Man, and you felt Zone?" "Correct" and then Cousins makes it clear in what he says next that he saw it the same way.
 

There was an interesting interview by Cover1 with Eric Wood where he talked about the differences between how the coaches (who know the assignments and plays) grade players and how external organizations like PFF grade players.  At about 5:50, Turner specifically asks Wood about PFF analytics, and I thought Wood had an interesting and measured response.  He does comment that a few years back, PFF had him listed as "the 28th best run blocking center in the NFL" and "I can assure you our GM and coaches didn't feel that way".

 

Anyway, I don't think I'm going to persuade anyone here, but I hope someone finds the above of interest.

 

 

 

[VW82]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I would agree, they are applying the same methodology across the board for all QBs, whatever that methodology is.  The question would be whether the methodology favors or disfavors certain QB or certain personnel situations?  And to what extent does it actually reflect the qualities which make QB play successful in the NFL?

 

As far as benefit of the doubt, my bottom line is this: look at their QB ranking for 2017 and decide how it matches or does not match your idea of effective QB play.

They had Tyrod Taylor at #12.  Notable guys rated lower would include Nick Foles - the QB who actually won the Superbowl - at #39; DeShaun Watson at #29; Derek Carr at #21; Kirk Cousins at #20; and Jared Goff at #18.  Aaron Rodgers is ranked just above Taylor at #11 and Case Keenum at #9.  They have Tom Brady at the top, and Matt Ryan #2, Wentz #5.

 

My bottom line is that for some reason, PFF's football analytics for QB do not accurately reflect that key metric of successful QB play - the ability to help a team generate points on offense.  That would put Goff #1; Brady #2; Wentz/Foles #3; Brees #4; Bortles #5; Smith #6; Stafford #7; Roeth #8; Flacco #9; and Keenum #10.  Ryan would be #15, Cousins #16, and Taylor #22.  You can look at different metrics - TDs, TD/INT, YPA, whatever you like.  I think you'll find a similar result - PFF QB ranking results don't seem to align with successful offensive football.
 

So look for yourself, and make your own decision about whether you accept or are skeptical of their QB rankings for previous years.  If it's the former, then you probably think they are right about Allen.  If it's the latter, then you would probably be right to be skeptical of their take on Allen - not because we think he's uniquely disfavored, but because their methodology doesn't seem to generate sensible results.

 

 

I would tend to agree with you that last year’s list doesn’t exactly pass the smell test, though I feel the same way about QBR and many other stats. That said, the adjustments they’re purporting to make would seem to be improvements (at least in theory) beyond your typical QB rating / box score style metrics which only look at a few variables, and the pbp breakdown aspect to PFF adds a different element in terms of inputs which you don’t find other places.

 

Generally speaking, I’m not a fan of all-in-one metrics. I think they’re misunderstood and frequently poorly used. However, I’m happy to use them as part of a statistical profile alongside YPA, ANY/A, etc. I’m also happy to have someone smarter than me assign weightings to them to form a combined metric (at least terms of rankings), and then include that as part of a larger analysis that incorporates more qualitative evidence as well (i.e. coaches poll). 

 

Again, I just don’t think it’s smart to throw the analysis out just because some of us don’t feel it passes our (mostly unqualified) eye test, especially when we don’t know the whole story of how it was put together. Discounting their findings alongside other appropriately discounted findings seems more appropriate.

Edited December 29, 2018 by VW82

[WideNine]

What irritates me the most with many of these posts, and all of them that say things like "Allen has always been....", you are seeing what he has always been...

 

Pure idiocy. What vast Allen football history are they drawing from - the multi-sport HS kid who did not go to QB camps where recruiters hung out and was considered too small to garner any college interest. Who spent a season at JUCO (Reedley College), grew to 6' 5" and finally got a shot with Wyoming. Perhaps the vast amount of film is the 2 games he played in his first year at Wyoming before getting injured (broken collarbone), or the his second year where he started before going in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

 

Most everyone who evaluates QB talent, acknowledge Allen has the tools, but also was the most inexperienced QB of the 1st round draft class and would need a lot of time and NFL-level coaching to get up to speed. The good news is the book on Josh is he has always excelled at every sport he has participated in and picks things up quickly.

 

Tossing around stats comparing Allen to NFL veterans and QBs who were recruited and featured at D1 schools is not the smartest thing (I am being kind), and pretty close to a waste of time. The only metrics I care about is Josh game 1 compared to Josh game 2... Josh game 3... you get the picture.

 

Most of us know that Allen was the least ready (experience-wise) for the NFL. That there would be more than enough pundits more focused on ruining the kid with their lack of patience, and narrow-minded comparisons, than those willing to see the potential and understand the time and support needed to bring it all out.

 

Recall what Trent Dilfer said about Josh Allen who he felt had the best raw skill set of the draft class:

 

“Josh Allen is the one right now that’s ripping my heart out. Darnold should be playing, Rosen should be playing, Baker should be playing. I don’t think Josh Allen should be playing. He comes up, a very similar background as me, Central Valley California, smaller school.”

 

“I don’t think he (Allen) is ready for the bigness that is the NFL and he’s not surrounded by enough good stuff, innovation, talent, whatever… the ten other things, that can make up for his lack of sophistication and experience.”

 

“Every year I will identify a kid, that is like me, his background’s like me, you can see the writing on the wall, that we can ruin… the chances of ruining this kid, are better than making him become a superstar.”  Dilfer sees a lot of similarities between his and Allen’s situations.

 

“I went early, not because I wanted to, but because I was being told to. I had deep insecurity. I was overwhelmed moving across the country from California to Tampa, Florida to the worst organization in football (yes, I believe he is comparing Buffalo and the supporting cast to being one of the worst organizations in football) …I wasn’t ready. To be able to sit and watch and learn and have people teach me how to be a better pro, and then use their discretion on knowing when I was ready, would have been better for me.”

 

Edited December 29, 2018 by WideNine

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, jrober38 said:

 

What's mind boggling is anyone thinking the two aren't correlated. 

 

Passing efficiency almost always leads to more points on the board. 

 

Top 5 QBs in Passing Efficiency this year:

 

1. Drew Brees - 32.7 PPG  2

2. Pat Mahomes - 35.3 PPG 1

3. Russell Wilson - 26.7 PPG 6

4. Matt Ryan - 25.3 PPG 11

5. Phil Rivers - 27 PPG 5

 

You can't expect the Bills to be in the top half of the league in scoring without a team QB Rating above 90...

 

By "passing efficiency" do you mean passer rating? (that's implied by whom you list, but you use QB rating and passing efficiency in the same post, and then there's total QBR...)

 

Well, you know, this reminds me a bit of the "300 yd game" thing, where folks here want to see QB throw "300 yd games".  But in fact, passing yardage and winning are not correlated.  There is probably a floor - I think around 200-220 ypg - where if the QB can't generate that much passing offense consistently, the team won't win.  But wins don't go up as passing yardage goes up, which is what "correlation" means.

 

OTOH, of the 5 guys you list, I added their team's rank in 'points for' on offense, to which back in the lab we would say "other stuff going on here, I think"

Here is a list of the top-10 scoring teams preceded by their QB's rating.

2 Chiefs

1 Saints

10 Rams

14 Steelers

5 Chargers

3 Seahawks

12 Colts

17 Patriots

16 Bears

6 Texans

 

A correlation (by the usual definition of the term) here would be kind of a tough sell for a scientist. 

 

If you want to make the case that there's probably a floor for QB rating beyond which a team can't compensate, I'd go with that.

Certainly, the last 3 on the list are Darnold, Rosen, and Allen, and I think it's fair to say if they don't improve, they're not going to last in the NFL.

 

[jrober38]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes but Mahomes isn't a precise passer either. That's actually the positive comparison I would use for Allen, not Cam Newton. Mahomes is not slicing up defenses like Brady or Brees. He excels at reading the defense, and he uses his pure athleticism to make up for less than ideal ball placement. And the Chiefs have surrounded him with an offense that can catch slightly off target passes. Kelvin Benjamin didn't go to Kansas City and suddenly learn to catch the ball. He still sucks. I take that as a sign that the offensive talent here is severely hindering Allen's ability to develop because he is the entire offense. At the same time he will need to develop and read the field better or he won't last long. It has nothing to do with his accuracy.

 

I don't buy this at all. Mahomes drops dimes that other QBs can't complete. His ability to change arm angel and operate out of structure while maintaining his accuracy is unbelievable. He is accurate to every part of the field and his receivers have excelled because he puts the ball in spots where they can catch it and run after the catch. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

20 minutes ago, VW82 said:

I would tend to agree with you that last year’s list doesn’t exactly pass the smell test, though I feel the same way about QBR and many other stats.

 

It will probably not shock you that I have very much the same "secret sauce"/subjectivity critique of total QBR, with the comment that total QBR doesn't seem to pass the same "smell test" in terms of its ranking not corresponding to the teams that are actually having the most success scoring points.  While total QBR itself has a calculation, a lot of its inputs have an element of subjectivity.

 

20 minutes ago, VW82 said:

That said, the adjustments they’re purporting to make would seem to be improvements (at least in theory)

 

Absolutely.  They have what seems like a sound rationale for what they're doing and why.  There's just something in the implementation that doesn't seem to produce results that are as meaningful as one would like.

 

[jrober38]

51 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

So when Jacksonville finished top 5 in PPG last year with a team passer rating of 84, that was a figment of everyone's imagination?

 

Or how about Baltimore scoring in the top 10 this year with an 84 rating?

 

Nice way of dodging the question by the way 

 

Jacksonville did it with an elite defense. 

 

Baltimore is 14th in scoring so I'm not sure what stats you're looking at. 

 

If we score 28 points per game and Allen is sub 90 in passer rating he can have another year, but there's no way that's going to happen. 

[oldmanfan]

If I approach my interpretation of the PFF data as I would reviewing a scientific manuscript, I would ask a couple questions.  Hapless has already mentioned one: a more complete description of their methods.  I would also ask about how many people they have reviewing each QB.  Do they have one person doing the analysis of each QB?  Several?  How well do individual observers agree on their ratings (measurement error)?  Do they average results from several observers?  As one who has the responsibility of quality control in a lab, I have to deal with these type things on a regular basis and can tell you there can be significant inter and intraobserver variability.

 

I think there is probably some useful info in the PFF material.  I just don't know how much or how useful because I don't know enough about how they did the analysis.

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Jacksonville did it with an elite defense. 

 

Baltimore is 14th in scoring so I'm not sure what stats you're looking at. 

 

If we score 28 points per game and Allen is sub 90 in passer rating he can have another year, but there's no way that's going to happen. 

Again, says the guy who wanted to trade an entire draft for Winston but pretends he's a QB savant.   He can have another year?  How generous of you given you have absolutely no say in it.

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Jacksonville did it with an elite defense. 

 

Baltimore is 14th in scoring so I'm not sure what stats you're looking at. 

 

If we score 28 points per game and Allen is sub 90 in passer rating he can have another year, but there's no way that's going to happen. 

 

Hah! So yes, it IS about his stats and not about points and winning?

 

Spoken like a guy with an agenda, but that's not news.

 

I thought when you said you hoped you'd be wrong about Allen that you'd be reasonable about him, but with every post you show that you're not ready to do that. 

 

I guess it makes sense given that you called him a terrible prospect. Of course, you then said you'd take him in the 3rd round, which is a fireable offense--any person that would spend any draft pick on someone they think is terrible is someone who's opinion needs to be taken with a mountain of skepticism.

 

Nevertheless, I say to the community that it's time to shed the intellectual dishonesty about Allen. If you'd prefer that he fail so that you can be right just say so instead of setting arbitrary benchmarks that hold no real meaning. If you're determined to call him a franchise QB even if he shows that he isn't then just declare yourself an unabashed homer and be done with it.

 

The rest of us will watch and see. If the team produces on offense and wins games then I'd like to think we'll be happy with it.