Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[Thurman#1]

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/27/buffalo-bills-pro-football-focus-josh-allen-accuracy/

 

 

Some excerpts:

 

"At PFF, one of our advanced metrics of tracking quarterback play is called adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws where the QB is hit on his release. Allen ranks last among qualified QBs with a 62.1 adjusted completion percentage, and when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage plummets to 45.2 percent (he’s the only QB at less than 57.0 percent in terms of adjusted completion percentage under pressure)."

 

"He’s struggled with his accuracy when targeting players who are in tight coverage: His 39.0 adjusted completion percentage on throws to receivers who are either in tight coverage, have a defender closing in on them or have just a step of separation on their coverage defender also ranks last.

 

"In relative terms, he’s also been one of the least efficient QBs when it comes to hitting the target when the receiver is either open or wide open, with his 85.0 adjusted completion percentage on those throws ranking 38^th. His accuracy struggles don’t really favor any specific depth of the field either, they’ve persisted all over. Allen ranks 32^ndamong QBs with an 82.1 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling no more than nine yards in the air; he ranks 37^thwith a 52.9 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling between 10 and 19 yards in the air; and he ranks 32^nd with a 32.4 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air.

 

"In addition to adjusted completion percentage, one of our more advanced quarterback statistics at PFF involved a process in which we chart every throw for accuracy, allowing us to further break down a QBs ball placement beyond completion percentage to see who’s placing the ball accurately – hitting receivers in stride, leading them away from defenders – compared to passers who are getting catchable balls to their playmakers – making a receiver reach back across his body to catch a ball, taking away YAC opportunities – and those who are throwing uncatchable balls.

 

"When we break down the throws from those 39 qualified QBs, Allen ranks 37^th with 53.9 percent of his passes falling into the accurate bucket (the NFL average is 61.9 percent)."

 

It should be noted they also loved his running and his downfield aggressiveness, as well as his arm strength and athleticism. Also had a McDermott quote expressing satisfaction with how he's developing.

 

 

 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/12/24/buffalo-bills-josh-allen-quarterback-new-england-patriots/

 

Also a good article from Kubiak on how well he did against Belichick's defences. Kubiak's been consistently positive in saying that Josh is learning, a good thing to stress when dealing with a rookie's performance, and says it continued against the Pats.

[dave mcbride]

Good stuff - thanks for the link and the paste.

[Freddie's Dead]

Screw PFF, they don't fit my narrative.

[26CornerBlitz]

ABB on the scene in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...........

[Bing Bong]

Just now, Freddie's Dead said:

Screw PFF, they don't fit my narrative.

This one's gonna be unpopular folks.

 

annoying OP's are the ones posting articles "you wouldn't believe what this jackwagon just said!" //posts PFF article. Good on OP here lol.

[teef]

uh oh!

 

edit:  so...most of the responses in here aren't to the content of the write up, but rather how other posters will react.  that's cute.

Edited December 27, 2018 by teef

[Hapless Bills Fan]

One thing I'm left curious about stems from this tidbit:

 

"At PFF, one of our advanced metrics of tracking quarterback play is called adjusted completion percentage, which accounts for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes and throws where the QB is hit on his release.  Allen ranks last among qualified QBs with a 62.1 adjusted completion percentage, and when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage plummets to 45.2 percent (he’s the only QB at less than 57.0 percent in terms of adjusted completion percentage under pressure)."

I'm curious as to how many passes this accounts for with Allen, because if they're just looking at where he's hit on his release (vs scrambling to avoid pressure), I wonder if Allen is avoiding being hit on release while he's really moving about and not resetting properly or just flat out turning the play into a run.

 

Analytics didn't favor Allen pre draft so it's no surprise they aren't favoring him now.  I do question the part about charting every throw for accuracy, since just as with drops, there's plainly a large element of subjectivity at play there.
 

This is very close to something I've been saying:

"While the tools are tantalizing, and he can make the big-time throws for the NFL, he must get better at handling the easy stuff, from working in the quick game to throwing with touch and accuracy to all levels of the field.”

It's notable from their assessment of the throws made, Allen is not ""less accurate" (in terms of completions) with short dumpoff throws, but the eyeballs tell a different story - Allen will not infrequently will pass up a wide open guy he would have to hit at short range while he's on the move, in favor of a run, and often his dump-off throws are not placed as perfectly as they need to be for YAC.  I think it's because he knows these aren't "gimme" throws for him at this point, and that his ultimate success or failure will depend on his ability to develop and hit those.
 

[quinnearlysghost88]

I’d be curious to see how many wide open looks he’s had vs the rest of the nfl. Also his WR corp are partly to blame for his close coverage accuracy. We knew he had accuracy issues out of college, with his WRs, no run game, a tough schedule and a bad oline, these numbers are a little skewed. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by quinnearlysghost88

[MILFHUNTER#518]

Good article thank you for the link.

 

I will reserve judgement until next postseason. I wanna see how he fares with a little experience, a full off season with all reps taken with the 1s,  and a competent NFL caliber supporting cast around him (i.e. improved o-line, actual NFL wide receivers, etc.)

[Boatdrinks]

This isn’t anything we didn’t already know, but some may find it interesting. Anyone watching knows that while Allen has made progress, he still has a long way to go. He’s yet to have a game where he just looks truly efficient as a passer. The Bills aren’t out of the woods just yet. Allen shows promise, but he has to make some pretty big improvements to his game. If he doesn’t make the leap from year one to year two, talk of finding another QB will continue. Mayfield and to a somewhat lesser degree Darnold, have shown to be on an upward trajectory as QBs and seem to have more certain futures. It seems Allen, Rosen and even Jackson are still largely unknowns and the needle can move either way going forward. Simple numbers may never be a great answer on Allen, just the eye test and most importantly wins and losses when he starts. 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

 

[17years&waiting]

I'd be curious how many of these "contested" passes are the WR's not making plays on the ball, and are not necessarily Allen's fault.  It's hard to tell how they decide whether or not the pass was the QB's fault, but in my mind, I haven't seen that many passes that are Allen's fault.

 

Take for instance the Foster play in the sun against the Patriots: how does that count for PFF?  It's technically not a drop, because I don't think Foster touched it, but it was also maybe the best deep pass I've seen Allen throw this year.  Does it count as "inaccurate" in this rating system?

[RoyBatty is alive]

Thanks for posting a rather depressing article.  There really isnt anything shocking to it.

 

Lets hope he can improve as he matures, kid seems to be intelligent enough and is not making as many outright boneheaded throws, that in itself is a huge improvement. He plays less hero ball which is a big positive.

 

One thing not mentioned is the lack of his receivers "bailing him out" on bad throws. I wonder how PFF ranks some of the Odell Beckham completions that are actually inaccurate throws.

 

J Allen does deserve more credit for his running ability, after all he is the Bills leading rushed, LOL.

Edited December 27, 2018 by RoyBatty is alive

[jahnyc]

Hard to argue with the stats.  Allen will need to improve his accuracy to become a quality starter (or better) for the Bills, which we all had understood would need to happen when he was drafted.  I hope his accuracy when pressured will improve as he gets more comfortable with the offense and improves his ability to recognize defenses/pressures.  This does underscore the importance of making sure that we have the best possible coaches working with Allen to improve his accuracy since he is showing very good intangibles and rare athleticism and arm strength.

[Thurman#1]

9 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I’d be curious to see how many wide open looks he’s had vs the rest of the nfl. Also his WR corp are partly to blame for his close coverage accuracy. We knew he had accuracy issues out of college, with his WRs, no run game, a tough schedule and a bad oline, these numbers are a little skewed. 

 

 

The wide receivers are absolutely partly responsible for the pure numbers of passes he threw into close coverage. Absolutely. But as for his percentage of accurate throws there, not so much.

 

6 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

This isn’t anything we didn’t already know, but some may find it interesting. Anyone watching knows that while Allen has made progress, he still has a long way to go. He’s yet to have a game where he just looks truly efficient as a passer. The Bills aren’t out of the woods just yet. Allen shows promise, but he has to make some pretty big improvements to his game. If he doesn’t make the leap from year one to year two, talk of finding another QB will continue. Mayfield and to a somewhat lesser degree Darnold, have shown to be on an upward trajectory as QBs and seem to have more certain futures. It seems Allen, Rosen and even Jackson are still largely unknowns and the needle can move either way going forward. Simple numbers may never be a great answer on Allen, just the eye test and most importantly wins and losses when he starts. 

 

 

Agreed. He shows promise but still has a long way to go. Exactly.

 

I'm still quite hopeful about his future, myself.

Edited December 27, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Bing Bong]

24 minutes ago, teef said:

uh oh!

 

edit:  so...most of the responses in here aren't to the content of the write up, but rather how other posters will react.  that's cute.

It's an article pointing out some stats that I figured were true so.. no comment lol. I'll defer to the article's points and agree with the contents. Apologies for the cold take everyone.

 

I'll suppose I'll note that Allen may be inaccurate at times, but the fact that he seems to be consistently seeing and attempting to hit the right open read downfield, accurately or inaccurately, is at least refreshing (as the article points out lol)

 

Many of his 1st half performances (and a couple of entire games) are what confuse some that are ignoring stats and pointing to a few 4th quarter heroics and dropped balls. He starts out very poorly in some games.. like the Lions, in which we eventually won and swept all the problems quarters 1-3 under the rug. Stats matter. They tell us several missed plays on the field we otherwise ignore after a good 4th quarter.

Edited December 27, 2018 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[teef]

5 minutes ago, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

It's an article pointing out some stats that I figured were true so.. no comment lol. I'll defer to the article's points and agree with the contents. Apologies for the cold take everyone.

 

I'll suppose I'll note that Allen may be inaccurate at times, but the fact that he seems to be consistently seeing and attempting to hit the right open read downfield, accurately or inaccurately, is at least refreshing (as the article points out lol)

i'm with you.  i never though it was completely about allen's accuracy, (although i think we all know it will likely never be elite, and that's ok) but rather the speed of the game and decision making.  he just has to improve.  if next year looks too much like this year, we're all screwed.

[Troll Toll]

His completion percentage will go up when we have guys who can get open and he doesn’t have to throw the ball away. The fact that he can routinely scramble for 4-5 seconds and still have nobody open is a glaring indictment of the receivers. I’ve seen plenty of QBs I would call inaccurate, Josh is not one of them. Sucks that the narrative continues based solely on stats. 

 

If I had to rank the root causes of his incompletions it would go something like this:

 

1. Pass intentionally thrown away

2. Receiver failed to make a play

3. Pass defended

4. Pass misfired

5. Miscommunication 

[billspro]

Hopefully Allen has a good week this week. At some point the stats are important. I will be more worried if he doesn’t make a big jump next year.

[Nextmanup]

41 minutes ago, teef said:

uh oh!

 

edit:  so...most of the responses in here aren't to the content of the write up, but rather how other posters will react.  that's cute.

Unfortunately, that is a game frequently played by many posters at this forum.