EJ Manuel: What went wrong after year 1?

[billspro]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I was of the opinion then and even more so now that he needed to be allowed to win or lose games on his own. Marrone told him not to lose the game which is a terrible mentality to grow in. I am a math teacher and my students who are willing to make mistakes make greater gains then those who are unwilling. 

 

This is a great point. If people in any profession are allowed to grow from mistakes they will develop much more than people scared to make mistakes.

[Bing Bong]

5 hours ago, Jasovon said:

The QB makes the receivers? So Josh needs to hit his receivers more in the hands and chest does he? 

 

You need both, you cannot win in the NFL with practice squad receivers. Look at Green Bay this season and tell me they don't miss Jordy Nelson. 

We pounded this point home with Tyrod not getting production from his WRs when we justified booting him.

 

"He regressed every year" his WRs got worse every year. The receivers he had last year were garbage compared to even now. We cut 80% of those guys that weren't even good enough for Allen's crappy WR corps.

 

"They'd do better with a quarterback that can throw people because WRs get production out of good quarterbacks." yes.. with a great QB AND A TRUE #1 MAYBE A SOLID #2.. duh some lesser WRs are going to be matched up against lesser corners, not game planned for, and will get better production from quarterbacks that can and are allowed to spread the ball around.

 

Just saying we made these quoted points for Tyrod. Not that he showed enough in his tenure. But some consistency in team building philosophy would be nice. Tyrod was a godsend when he came to supplant EJ with the wealth of WR talent he had when he showed up (when healthy).. As are most quarterbacks that belong in this league.

 

His regression should have been clearly apparent to be correlated with the WRs he gradually lost over his tenure. And that should have made this FO a little more aware of the absolute lack of receiving talent we had in store for JA.

Edited December 27, 2018 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[Logic]

There were two factors at work with EJ:

1.) There was no reasonable plan in place to develop him. The Bills coaches started him too soon, asked him to run a no-huddle offense from day 1 (seriously, who asks a raw rookie to do that?!), gave him a crappy offensive scheme to work with in general (who here likes Hackett Ball?), and gave up on him too soon.

2.) There are two kinds of inaccuracy. There's the kind Josh Allen has, where he'll throw 5 passes in a row right on the money, perfectly placed, then sail an easy throw over hisWR's head. Let's call this sporadic inaccuracy. Then there's the second kind, which EJ had, which is area code accuracy. That's where the QB more often than not gets the ball in the vicinity of his WR, but never accurately enough to allow YAC or a play to be made. EJ often hung his receivers out to dry or made it so that they had to make an insane, acrobatic leap to secure the ball. While Allen's type of inaccuracy is something you can overcome and tolerate, EJ's is not. So despite item 1 (bad infrastructure around QB, bad coaching, etc), it's questionable whether EJ Manuel would EVER have become an upper echelon QB.

I will say this: The Bills damn well better give Josh Allen more support and more time than they gave EJ Manuel. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by Logic

[NoHuddleKelly12]

1 hour ago, jaybee said:

So what happens if Allen plays at the same level next year ?  Its very possible.  Do we draft another?  Do we suffer 4 years thru his rookie contract....because we drafted him high?  Hand the Keys to Matt ?  

 

Would love to see him develop but you've got to be concerned if you've watched him so far.  

As another poster above already mentioned, it’s clear that the lack of talent around JA right now is holding him back from his best self, not the other way around. How could you not like the direction he’s going? I’ve been super encouraged by most of what I’ve seen so far from him, including his priority of looking for intermediate/deep options first—we’ve been missing that kind of aggressive mind set from our signal callers for how long around here? Since Kelly? Everyone knows how deficient our roster is right now compared to 2013-14, yet we have a buzz/excitement about Sundays that has been missing for far too long.

[Bing Bong]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

I was of the opinion then and even more so now that he needed to be allowed to win or lose games on his own. Marrone told him not to lose the game which is a terrible mentality to grow in. I am a math teacher and my students who are willing to make mistakes make greater gains then those who are unwilling. 

That's true. But he was gifted our best Bills team in ages. I would never sacrifice a good team for a rookie quarterback who can only thrive under a no pressure 6-10 season of development like Allen basically played with. Totally with Marrone here if that's your take.

 

Rookie quarterback needs to learn what it takes to win above all. Steelers would have been nuts to have Big Ben have a no-pressure pick happy season with the team around him. Instead he learned how to win and was all the more confident too. Same with Brady.

 

These guys were young game managers that benefitted from their early success piggybacking on great teams before they eventually were handed the ropes to "win or lose on their own"

 

On a bad team I'd agree with you. On the 2014 Bills.. Heck no! We were good QB play away from being a legit playoff team.

Edited December 27, 2018 by BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P

[BringBackOrton]

11 hours ago, Another Fan said:

I guess some will argue otherwise but imo Manuel’s first year here wasn’t that bad.  He held his own in the first game of the year against the Patriots, defeated the Ravens (they previously just won the Super Bowl), and looked like a boss in one game against the Jets that year.  It wasn’t until 2014 where it was obvious he really hadn’t developed.

 

Was that attributed to coaches having more film on him, him losing his confidence, or possibly poor coaching here?  I can’t help to make some parallels to EJs first year to Josh’s.  They both missed a few games there rookie years, there’s a good chance this team will win 6 games like that team did, and imo they both showed flashes of what’s to come while still some things to work on.  

 

Just have my fingers crossed Josh will work out.  I mean at one time EJ was capable of these kind of plays:

 

 

He sucked and was figured out. 

 

His best games were his first two. He barely beat the Ravens as a starter with 5 TOs.

[Bing Bong]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think we forget what the OP linked: he showed flashes.  During his rookie year, overall his performance was not atypical of rookie "teething pains".

 

I personally think EJM got something akin to the "Yips" between conflicting advice, no QB coach and an inexperienced OC his rookie season, and possibly conflicting coaching advice,  but that's just my theory.

 

 

Ironically. The game that probably killed his career, Jags in London.. his second half performance was amazing to me. That throw to Robert Woods in particular. First half was definitely a case of the yips, and I always imagined the 2nd half was "I've screwed up so bad, this game / my near end to my career can't get any worse. I don't care anymore I'm just going to have to play the best possible performance I have" and EJ on a good day with no nerves was always the best version of EJ.

 

Ya just can't have that in quarterbacks. Almost everyday has to be a no nerves best version of yourself if you're quarterback. Toughest mental position in sports.

[Nextmanup]

45 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

Josh Allen is dramatically more skilled and so has dramatically more upside than Manuel. 

 

I wanted to believe in Manuel and so rationalized he was going to get better and better... and that his almost on target passes were the kinds of balls that young quarterbacks threw.

 

But he rarely put the ball where it needed to be, forcing receivers to stop, change routes, or get mauled going for the ball.  I was happy when Manuel was in the vicinity, thinking that meant he would eventually get it right.

 

But that was nonsense--Manuel did not have a good, accurate arm.  He could not learn the needed skills, as he simply didn't have them.

 

But Josh Allen has a real NFL arm and  likely elite NFL QB athleticism and leadership.  He throws a great ball, on target, with receivers in motion, and can make any throw.  His low percentage of completions is the result of many drops by receivers and of taking risks to make something happen (often because of the dismal running attack this year).

 

I could be rationalizing again, but really believe that the facts indicate that Josh Allen will be a great NFL quarterback--and soon. 

I do not think Josh is dramatically more skilled than EJ.

 

Both have serious deficiencies to their talent pool.

 

I do think Josh is a dramatically better athlete.  Josh Allen is really quite a naturally gifted athlete, but then again, so is Tim Tebow.

 

 

Just now, BarkleyForGOATBackupPT5P said:

Ironically. The game that probably killed his career, Jags in London.. his second half performance was amazing to me. That throw to Robert Woods in particular. First half was definitely a case of the yips, and I always imagined the 2nd half was "I've screwed up so bad, this game / my near end to my career can't get any worse. I don't care anymore I'm just going to have to play the best possible performance I have" and EJ on a good day with no nerves was always the best version of EJ.

 

Ya just can't have that in quarterbacks. Almost everyday has to be a no nerves best version of yourself if you're quarterback. Toughest mental position in sports.

One thing I consistently notice in watching Aaron Rodgers during Packers games...just the way he walks around between plays, the look on his face, the body language...the dude appears to be totally calm and under control at all times.

 

Many guys are overwhelmed with all that they have to do to play QB in the NFL, and I understand it!   But then you have Peyton Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Joe Montana, Jimbo, Dan Marino....they have an ability to play the position without having to push everything to the limit; they can play under control.

 

I think that is a key to success, along with lots of other things you have to be able to do!

 

 

 

[Greybeard]

1 hour ago, JPP said:

Deer caught in the headlights...

             Just think how many QB's the Bills have had over the last 20 years you could say that about.   Then think of the line they had in front of them.

[GunnerBill]

My view is essentially that EJ had some, limited but some, success as a rookie (it was a reasonably decent rookie season) partly because he started straight away. I hate to bust the narrative that sitting behind Kevin Kolb would have helped him but for me EJ Manuel was never a natural passer. He wasn't in college and wasn't in the NFL. But he did have a certain playmaking ability and played with a freedom to let it rip. The longer he was in the NFL and people tried to coach him - on technique and footwork - and force fed him a "play safe" mentality the more he thought about things and the worse he got.

 

The point others have made about his fragile confidence also has a ring of truth to it. EJ simply wasn't mentally resilient enough to cope with the scrutiny and criticism that comes with being a Quarterback in the NFL - let alone being a Quarterback in an NFL city bereft of a QB for so long. Then the offseason working with a QB guru didn't help. He was noticeably more robotic the second year and was trying to throw with a natural and more classic passing motion rather than the aim and fire style he had in his first year. He was less accurate trying to pass than trying to aim and throw. He obviously really struggled in camp and Marrone lost patience. He did then play pretty well against Chicago and Miami to open the season but San Diego rattled him and Houston rushed the hell out of him and the moment the pick 6 happened I felt it was over for him.

 

Ultimately while not liking any of the QBs in that draft (it was before I had started my grade structure so I can't honestly compare retrospectively but I didn't think there was a 1st rounder in the class) I was with the Bills in that if I had to swing and miss on one I'd have swung and missed on EJ. The reality is he was a middling NFL prospect who got worse the more people tried to refine him and lost whatever natural unlearned spark was there originally.

 

 

[Bing Bong]

Just now, Nextmanup said:

I do not think Josh is dramatically more skilled than EJ.

 

Both have serious deficiencies to their talent pool.

 

I do think Josh is a dramatically better athlete.  Josh Allen is really quite a naturally gifted athlete, but then again, so is Tim Tebow.

 

 

Not dramatically more skilled, I agree. I think the difference is intangibles. BTW both EJ and JA are dramatically more skilled QBs than Tebow haha, idc who the better athlete of the 3 is.

 

JA has much better intangibles so far. And by that I mean confidence in his talent on the field more-so than effort / film study / off field habits, etc. which EJ was fine at. The difference I see is on-field intangibles. But to the OP's point.. he's gotta improve from this year whereas EJ didn't. It's going to hurt him career wise especially if he doesn't improve with better supporting talent.

 

I mean stats DO matter at some point let's be real here. Bad stats over a long enough sample size are an indicator that all strengths you see on the eye test don't mean a hill of beans compared to any weaknesses you perceive as inconsequential. At some point bad career stats in a quarterback can be pointed to something as a major flaw.. be it poor touch on passes, bad decisions on interceptions, attempting too much hero ball. Dude's gotta kill the Lions convincingly the way both teams played in the future. Dolphins, Jets, Patriots: stop having poor 2nd quarter performances.

 

 

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

 

This is a cop out post and you know it. The differences are night & day. Stats are for -well, you know..

Really? They're pretty similar, actually. The Bills will wind up 6-10 or 5-11 with a generally pretty good defense and a terrible offense that struggles to run the ball and a big, strong-armed rookie qb with *genuine* (i.e., not made-up) accuracy issues who missed a handful of games mid-season and who also flashes excellent run skills.  How is that different, big picture-wise, from the 2013 team? I'm in no way saying that Allen ends up like Manuel at all, but it's fair to say that there are some comparables to work with. 

Edited December 27, 2018 by dave mcbride

[skibum]

I was just thinking about the EJ/JA 1st year comparison. Josh kind of reminds me of EJ - Tall, big arm, not very accurate, great athlete, always a threat to run. I would bet their stat sheets look very similar for their rookie years. I think the big difference is that Allen has shown improvement in reading the field and getting the ball out quickly (instead of bailing on the pass and running for it like he did so much in earlier games). EJ never got over that hump. Allen is also way more confident and enthusiastic.

 

Allen should develop into the better player, but that being said, I haven't seen anything this season that makes me think it's guaranteed to happen. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Really? They're pretty similar, actually. The Bills will wind up 6-10 or 5-11 with a generally pretty good defense and a terrible offense that struggles to run the bull and a big, strong-armed rookie qb with *genuine* (i.e., not made-up) accuracy issues who missed a handful of games mid-season and who also flashes excellent run skills.  How is that different, big picture-wise, from the 2013 team? I'm in no way saying that Allen ends up like Manuel at all, but it's fair to say that there are some comparables to work with.

 

Even the defences are similar.... good but inconsistent and didn't make many clutch plays. The defense took the next step in 2014 with Schwartz in situ..... think this defense still needs pass rushers to do the same.

[LSHMEAB]

4 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

I remember EJ hanging all his receivers out to dry.

Edwards started doing this more and more towards the end as well. You will NEVER last at the position if you're getting your receivers blasted.

 

The rule changes have mitigated this quite a bit, but it's a sign a QB doesn't have the awareness required and the receivers are gonna quickly turn on you.

 

There's not much that statistically distinguishes Allen from Manuel as rookies if we're being honest. Manuel had a better rating, better TD/INT pctg, more yards per game, and less rushing yards. The hope is that with better personnel, Allen will make the leap that Manuel couldn't. Allen has far more talent and seems to play with an edge so we shall see. Towards the end of Manuel's time, it was clear he lacked confidence and that was a result of poor performances. Allen's gonna have to sustain some success to avoid that fate.

Edited December 27, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think we forget what the OP linked: he showed flashes.  During his rookie year, overall his performance was not atypical of rookie "teething pains".

 

I personally think EJM got something akin to the "Yips" between conflicting advice, no QB coach and an inexperienced OC his rookie season, and possibly conflicting coaching advice,  but that's just my theory.

 

 

Exactly what the poster alluding to his "throwing motion" was driving at.

 

Whether it was confidence or advise from too many directions, he really started aiming the ball and that resulted in even poorer accuracy.(Yips if you will)

 

I'm of the OPINION that the Bills didn't ruin Manuel and that no QB is ever truly "ruined" by circumstance. If Manuel had the fortitude to be a high quality NFL QB, he'd have been able to to block out all the external noise and just play football. It takes a special breed to play the most demanding position in sports and EJ wasn't one of the few.

[Wo-Bah]

Man, I miss Robert Woods.

[Mister Defense]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

I do not think Josh is dramatically more skilled than EJ.

 

 

Why not? You never say, never back up that statement.

 

I cannot imagine how anyone seeing both quarterbacks play can come to that conclusion.

[Alphadawg7]

The number 1 most important thing for any QB to develop is:  Opportunity.

 

Once Marrone decided to play Orton because he wanted a Vet, EJ lost his chance to be a young QB who will be afforded the opportunity to make mistakes and grow from it.

 

He was thrown out there before he was ready and yetshowed some promise.  Then despite being 2-2 he had his opportunity taken from him because Marrone wanted to start a bad vet.  Funny, he stubbornly stuck with another bad bet in Jax too despite there being several upgrades available since him being there.  

 

By the time EJ got another opportunity two things happened.  Rex got who had been the apple of his eye for several years, and that was Tyrod.  EJ out played Tyrod that preseason yet still didn’t get the job.  So now EJ still hasn’t gotten another opportunity, and confidence is surely being affected as well.  But from this point on, he has NO ROOM for mistakes.  He can’t make a mistake, review film, and improve anymore.  Now he makes a mistake and doesn’t get to play anymore.

 

So for me, what damaged him the most was the loss of the opportunity to go out and both make good and bad plays without losing his chance to keep playing.  Doesn’t mean he would have ever gotten there, but I think there is definite reason to believe his development was significantly impacted negatively by losing his chance early to play and learn from the good and the bad plays.

[78thealltimegreat]

He got hurt in Cleveland and then he was pretty much done