OldTimeAFLGuy Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: As he should...you dont build a Super Bowl winner in one Free Agency. Better to spend wisely and keep adding each year. Look at the Rams, they did that at first and then went to crazy town and are in trouble long term. They are in a "you better win now" mode because the way they did contracts means they are going to be in cap hell soon enough. They went all in on a SB this year or next, but when Goff contract comes up, this team is getting gutted and they could regress heavily if they dont draft well. I have confidence in Beane finding the right mix of pieces to start contending next year and building a long term contender. ..great assessment....thanks for sharing......... 1
corta765 Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 No team fills out holes completely and virtually no team is hole free. When they are they are picked apart in FA. The Broncos with Manning are perhaps the closest you've seen to a complete team recently and you have seen how quickly that fell once Peyton aged. The Bills look something like this heading into the offseason: QB 1. Allen 2. Barkley 3. Anderson if they want vet presence RB 1. McCoy 2. Ivory 3. Murphy WR. 1. Needed 2. Foster 3. Needed 4. Zay Jones 5-6-7. McKenzie/Thompson/McCloud/Possible FA or Draft TE. 1. Croom 2. Thomas (Probably address the position in FA/Draft in some capacity I still think they want to give Croom a shot) OL LT Dawkins LG Teller C Bodine RG Needed RT Needed DL: Star, Harrison, Phillips, Needed DE: Trent, Jerry, & Shaq (Possibly can use edge rusher) LB: Edmunds, Milano, Zo, Stanford CB: White, Needed, T. Johnson, Wallace, Lewis SAF: Hyde, Poyer, Bush So the offense your looking at drafting a guy like A.J. Brown or N'K Neal Harry mixed with signing a guy like Tyrell Williams. I don't believe they will address center like some because Bodine wasn't a tire fire and they can spend O-Line resources on guys like RT Daryl Williams from the Panthers or Roger Safford from the Rams if not both mixed with the draft plus a current guy like Botteger. RB you can draft late and find gold plus it does seem like they are keeping Shady for better or worse. Defense you have a DL need and CB2 need but both of those are pretty addressable and the rest of the D is pretty young and set. They could use a true pass rusher but those are not easy to find. I could see the Bills pursuing a guy like Anthony Barr or Ziggy Ansah if they hit the market, but more likely they don't and do short term options like Brandon Graham DE PHI, DT Hankins OAK, and a CB on the cheap like Buster Skrine for a shot at the CB 2 spot. The defense they will address but it will not be sexy unless it is a top pass rusher because frankly they don't need to go crazy. So yea they need 6-8 guys but they have the ability to attack them well and like I said some areas they will settle because they would rather address other places. If they got some combo of what I have suggested I would feel pretty good about the team not only going for the playoffs but challenging for the division. Our defense would be the best still in division and if the offense gets improvements like they should it can be enough to move to the middle of the league. I think that would be a heck of an improvement and have a really nice base set long term. 1
BADOLBILZ Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: As he should...you dont build a Super Bowl winner in one Free Agency. Better to spend wisely and keep adding each year. Look at the Rams, they did that at first and then went to crazy town and are in trouble long term. They are in a "you better win now" mode because the way they did contracts means they are going to be in cap hell soon enough. They went all in on a SB this year or next, but when Goff contract comes up, this team is getting gutted and they could regress heavily if they dont draft well. I have confidence in Beane finding the right mix of pieces to start contending next year and building a long term contender. Remember when the Saints were reportedly facing a trip to cap hell but kept pushing the debt forward and remaining competitive for like 7 years until it worked itself out and they became the favorite to win the SB going into the playoffs in 2018? Oh the suffering.?? The REAL salary cap hell is having $100M to spend one offseason and $120M the next and no good free agents or extendable young players to spend it on. 1 1 1
Alphadawg7 Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said: Remember when the Saints were reportedly facing a trip to cap hell but kept pushing the debt forward and remaining competitive for like 7 years until it worked itself out and they became the favorite to win the SB going into the playoffs in 2018? Oh the suffering.?? The REAL salary cap hell is having $100M to spend one offseason and $120M the next and no good free agents or extendable young players to spend it on. You mean the same Saints team that only made the playoffs twice in the 6 years before this year and four times had a losing record during that span? Salary cap hell killed that team for most of the prime years left of Brees career. And they aren't playing great right now, so not sure how they are the Super Bowl favorites when its pretty wide open at the moment. And I disagree, FA isnt about one big splash, there are plenty of value adds out there and we do have players we can spend it on like keeping our core secondary together in Hyde, Poyer, and extending Tre after next season.
reddogblitz Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said: A couple things have changed in the last 50 years. What has changed that would prevent a team from drafting/signing a future HOFer and several long term starters along with a few good role players like a better punter?
BADOLBILZ Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 10 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said: You mean the same Saints team that only made the playoffs twice in the 6 years before this year and four times had a losing record during that span? Salary cap hell killed that team for most of the prime years left of Brees career. And they aren't playing great right now, so not sure how they are the Super Bowl favorites when its pretty wide open at the moment. And I disagree, FA isnt about one big splash, there are plenty of value adds out there and we do have players we can spend it on like keeping our core secondary together in Hyde, Poyer, and extending Tre after next season. Another way to look at it is that they've made the playoffs 5 of the last 9 years while in "salary cap hell" after their SB win and have never won less than 7 games. And the cap had a lot less to do with the years they missed the playoffs than the awful defensive coaching(Rob Ryan?). And they are the favorite by virtue of their best record in the NFL.........that's kinda' how it works. But yeah I agree that free agency isn't about one big splash.......that's why you don't need $100M going into it........it's actually counterintuitive to work yourself into a situation where you can't reasonably spend the $.........that's how stupid sh*t like the Corey Coleman trade happens. But I love your strategy........let's extend the safeties entering their late 20's.........mmkay that sounds wise............and no you can't extend White after next season.........learn your CBA rules son!
BuffaloHokie13 Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 (edited) Apologies for the inevitable length of this post. We have an estimated $89M in cap space. Reserve $10M for the draft picks we currently possess, leaving $79M. Re-sign Jordan Phillips (3 yr, 18M), Eddie Yarbrough (2 yr, $1.5M), Reid Ferguson (5 yr, $5M), and Lorenzo Alexander (1 yr, $3.5M). Their combined 2019 Cap Hits are $10.25M. Still $68.75M left. Sign Golden Tate (3 yr, $40M), Jermaine Kearse (4 yr, $28M), Tyler Kroft (3 yr, $22.5M), Quinton Spain (5 yr, $60M), Mitch Morse (5 yr, $40M), Ja'Wuan James (4 yr, $30M), and Eric Rowe (4 yr, $34M). Their combined 2019 Cap Hits are $40.5M. Still $28.25M left. With that, our roster - before the draft - with $28.25M left in cap space, is: QB - Josh Allen, Matt Barkley RB - Lesean McCoy, Chris Ivory, Marcus Murphy, Keith Ford FB - Pat DiMarco WR - Golden Tate, Robert Foster, Jermaine Kearse, Zay Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Ray Ray McCloud TE - Charles Clay, Tyler Kroft, Jason Croom OT - Dion Dawkins, Ja'Wuan James, Ike Boettger, Conor McDermott OG - Quinton Spain, Wyatt Teller, Vlad Ducasse OC - Mitch Morse, Russell Bodine ------------------------ DT - Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Jordan Phillips DE - Jerry Hughes, Trent Murphy, Shaq Lawson, Eddie Yarbrough OLB - Lorenzo Alexander, Matt Milano, Corey Thompson ILB - Tremaine Edmunds, Julian Stanford S - Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Rafael Bush, Siran Neal CB - Tre'Davious White, Eric Rowe, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, Ryan Lewis, Denzel Rice ------------------------- LS - Reid Ferguson K - Stephen Hauschka P - Corey Bojorquez That's 50 players before factoring in draft picks, with $28.25M in cap space. Guys in blue are the FAs I suggested, guys in red are cut candidates/potential upgrade spots. If we cut Keith Ford, Ike Boettger, Corey Thompson, or Ryan Lewis we save $570k (each) If we cut Ray Ray McCloud we save $490k If we cut Charles Clay we save $4.5M If we cut Conor McDermott we save $645k If we cut Vlad Ducasse we save $2M If we cut Russell Bodine we save $2.375M If we cut Trent Murphy we save $5.075M If we cut Julian Stanford we save $1.35M If we cut Rafael Bush we save $1.5M If we cut Siran Neal we save $427k If we cut Denzel Rice we save $720k If we cut ALL OF THEM we have 36 players on the roster, leaving 17 spots before draft picks and $49.6M to fill those spots with other FAs or camp cuts. Even if we only kept 6 of our 10 draft choices that's still ~$3.5M per spot leaving $11M of wiggle room for in-season moves & rollover. And really, even if you cut all of them you are mostly replacing depth. The only 2 starters in there are Clay & Murphy and Clay may be replaced by Kroft anyway. Edited December 28, 2018 by BuffaloHokie13
mannc Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: And they are the favorite by virtue of their best record in the NFL.........that's kinda' how it works. .........and no you can't extend White after next season.........learn your CBA rules son! Yeah, the Saints have had a couple bad games, but it's a long season and everyone is entitled to a bad game or two. They have home field throughout and they are still going to be very hard to beat there. Gotta be the hands-down favorite at this point. And I thought you are allowed to extend first round picks after their third season...has the rule changed?
BADOLBILZ Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, mannc said: And I thought you are allowed to extend first round picks after their third season...has the rule changed? After their 4th season. You have to choose whether to pick up their 5th year option or not after their 3rd season. Guessing Shaq doesn't get his $10M option for 2020 picked up.
LABILLBACKER Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/24/2018 at 5:58 PM, vorpma said: Blah Blah Blah fire everybody I want it and I want it now! That's what cracks me up from this adorably impatient millennial generation. They want it now! A 3 year plan to them means today. I don't think McD was expecting 60% of his oline to be gone. I don't think he expected KB to be lazy and worthless. If at the end of next season (year 3) this team doesn't show promise with 9+ wins then everyone will have my permission to come down from the hills with their pitchforks. 1
Alphadawg7 Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said: Another way to look at it is that they've made the playoffs 5 of the last 9 years while in "salary cap hell" after their SB win and have never won less than 7 games. And the cap had a lot less to do with the years they missed the playoffs than the awful defensive coaching(Rob Ryan?). And they are the favorite by virtue of their best record in the NFL.........that's kinda' how it works. But yeah I agree that free agency isn't about one big splash.......that's why you don't need $100M going into it........it's actually counterintuitive to work yourself into a situation where you can't reasonably spend the $.........that's how stupid sh*t like the Corey Coleman trade happens. But I love your strategy........let's extend the safeties entering their late 20's.........mmkay that sounds wise............and no you can't extend White after next season.........learn your CBA rules son! Having a top 5 QB all time may have had something to do with that too. But salary cap hell cost them Jimmy Graham and the ability to build a defense and wasted Brees prime years. It wasn't until they made some good moves in the draft and fixed the cap were they able to get back into the playoffs and contend again. Thats not how it works, record isnt the end all be all because not everyone plays the same schedule. And HOW you are playing when the playoffs BEGIN is more important than being hot earlier in the year, and Saints right now are not playing like they were earlier in the year. So I find it hard to call them the favorite with teams like Seattle and Chicago playing so much better second half of the year to go along with teams like Rams and Cowboys too. Its as wide open as I can remember in the NFC right now. Im not saying Saints won't do it, but just saying there is a pretty diverse playing field in the NFC right now. And what's your plan...let any player walk if they over 28 years old? LMAO...yes of course you extend our safeties while they are in late 20's. The fact you think thats funny or crazy is mind boggling. And Tre White is on a 4 year deal, they can extend him in 2020 like I suggested.
BADOLBILZ Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said: Having a top 5 QB all time may have had something to do with that too. But salary cap hell cost them Jimmy Graham and the ability to build a defense and wasted Brees prime years. It wasn't until they made some good moves in the draft and fixed the cap were they able to get back into the playoffs and contend again. Thats not how it works, record isnt the end all be all because not everyone plays the same schedule. And HOW you are playing when the playoffs BEGIN is more important than being hot earlier in the year, and Saints right now are not playing like they were earlier in the year. So I find it hard to call them the favorite with teams like Seattle and Chicago playing so much better second half of the year to go along with teams like Rams and Cowboys too. Its as wide open as I can remember in the NFC right now. Im not saying Saints won't do it, but just saying there is a pretty diverse playing field in the NFC right now. And what's your plan...let any player walk if they over 28 years old? LMAO...yes of course you extend our safeties while they are in late 20's. The fact you think thats funny or crazy is mind boggling. And Tre White is on a 4 year deal, they can extend him in 2020 like I suggested. They traded Jimmy Graham for Max Unger a very good player who is maybe the league's best center and a vital cog in the Saints offense............so you are again wrong....... they didn't have to cut Graham or even let him leave in free agency for salary cap purposes. Their offense has been fine without Graham. Also fine without Brandin Cooks. You have to treat your team like a going concern. Smart teams don't tear sh*t down in the NFL because it's not hard to go from mediocre to good quickly. But going the McBeane route of "stripped down" to good is a much harder route in a league where teams with $100M in cap space can't even find a place to spend it. I personally don't believe they will fulfill their goal and be a contender next season. I think they put too many eggs in the "year 3" basket and they may end up losing their jobs as a result. And IMO those are the breaks for not acting like a smart franchise and instead trying to fix everything when not everything was broken. But the good news is no more excuses after this offseason. It's been laid out. Put up or shut up McBeane. 3
row_33 Posted December 28, 2018 Posted December 28, 2018 Some of you have put more thought into this than the whole Bills brain trust
cba fan Posted December 29, 2018 Posted December 29, 2018 On 12/24/2018 at 6:30 PM, PUNT750 said: I really can’t believe the 3 year re-build plan for the Bills will have much success in 2019. Regardless of 10 draft picks and $90 mil in cap space it doesn’t make sense. Realistically we need new, quality; O Lineman (3), WR (3), RB (2), LB (1), TE (1), DB (1), DL (1) That’s 12 total to be competitive!! We’re going to have to over-pay for quality, top tier free-agents to come to Buffalo. We all know the risks with drafts picks in their rookie seasons (Zay Jones, Teller, McCloud and even Edmunds). It just doesn’t happen. I love believing in the PROCESS but with a young, raw QB who is still unproven while trying to blend a plethora of new players into a competent NFL team seems unrealistic. It may sell tickets but not win a lot of games. GO BILLS! 3 yr plan does not start until you have your QB. This was yr one. Even less considering Josh did not play all of the year. 1
Aussie Joe Posted December 29, 2018 Posted December 29, 2018 7 hours ago, corta765 said: So yea they need 6-8 guys but they have the ability to attack them well and like I said some areas they will settle because they would rather address other places. If they got some combo of what I have suggested I would feel pretty good about the team not only going for the playoffs but challenging for the division. Our defense would be the best still in division and if the offense gets improvements like they should it can be enough to move to the middle of the league. I think that would be a heck of an improvement and have a really nice base set long term. I have said in another thread that whilst it won’t be easy or even a probability, it’s not impossible to fill these positions competitively with draft picks and $90 million in cap.. We will see what Beane and his staff are really made of this offseason..
corta765 Posted December 29, 2018 Posted December 29, 2018 10 hours ago, Aussie Joe said: I have said in another thread that whilst it won’t be easy or even a probability, it’s not impossible to fill these positions competitively with draft picks and $90 million in cap.. We will see what Beane and his staff are really made of this offseason.. Exactly getting rid of the fat and dead weight is easy. Using that cap space and picks to build something is the real work.
Big Gun Posted December 29, 2018 Posted December 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, corta765 said: Exactly getting rid of the fat and dead weight is easy. Using that cap space and picks to build something is the real work. Right, as I said in another thread, now all the Bills need to do is convince the 31 other teams not to go shopping this offseason. 1
Saxum Posted December 29, 2018 Posted December 29, 2018 On 12/24/2018 at 7:36 PM, Aussie Joe said: So what should we do then? Just give up on 2019 already? Sounds like we should just punt the season or as some call it tank.
row_33 Posted December 29, 2018 Posted December 29, 2018 27 minutes ago, Limeaid said: Sounds like we should just punt the season or as some call it tank. So many predicting 12 or more wins, so many predicting 3 at most i will right now declare my annual 6-10 record for 2019.
Scott7975 Posted December 29, 2018 Posted December 29, 2018 18 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Remember when the Saints were reportedly facing a trip to cap hell but kept pushing the debt forward and remaining competitive for like 7 years until it worked itself out and they became the favorite to win the SB going into the playoffs in 2018? Oh the suffering.?? The REAL salary cap hell is having $100M to spend one offseason and $120M the next and no good free agents or extendable young players to spend it on. 7-9 the last 4 out of 5 seasons is remaining competitive?
Recommended Posts