Rating the Rookie QBs - What the Numbers Show

[Iverwig]

38 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Interesting that you say that I have no way of Knowing that they wanted Allen to sit for a year but you appearantly have inside info on Wilson.  Know one thinking Wilson would do so well is not accurate because myself and John Gruden knew.  It has been hinted at several times by McBeane.  McDermott is an Andy Reid disciple not a Rivera one.  But maybe you should read what I was responding to bud.  I dont recall or see where I said he should have sat for a year though.  Russel Wilson is just a response that a Rookie can be a leader.  Leaders are leaders bro he isnt the leader because he was elected or was appointed hes a leader because he is.  A true leader is just that a leader.  Its what you call an intagible.  Its one of the reasons I like Allen.

 

But wow bro you might want to drink a little less because your reply has me scratching my head.

 

Merry Christmas bro.  You dont pick a true leader they choose to do so because its in their nature.

Ok, you still don’t get my point.  In regards to Wilson he’s actually one of two NFL players I actually do have inside info on as I know him and his family very well. The bottom line is Josh was mishandled as he played much earlier than anticipated and there is no denying that. Leaders are true leaders but he was still placed in a bad situation. Josh came around because he got hurt and was allowed to sit and learn from a veteran which should have been the plan all along. 

 

Reference Gruden, how many QB’s did he think would not succeed? Heck he became a fan of EJ. 

 

I suggest you go back and read your first sentence in your first reply to me where you said the front office said the front office wanted him to sit for a year. 

4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

No the Bills front office and coach wanted him to sit for a year, dont know where youre getting your intell from here.

 

[87168]

On 12/24/2018 at 12:59 PM, The Frankish Reich said:

Mayfield

[big, big dropoff here ... not to scale!]

Jackson*

[smaller, but clear dropoff ...]

Darnold

[smaller but still significant dropoff ...]

Allen

[significant dropoff ...]

Rosen

 

*Jackson gets an asterisk because Harbaugh (smartly) changed the offense to take advantage of his strengths/hide his liabilities. Allen (except when going off script and running around and making big plays on his own) has not had this advantage. Maybe that's better for his long-term success (and health), but it means poorer results in the short run.

So, Jackson gets an asterisk because his coach is smart enough to alter the offense to fit their QB’s strength? Flacco and Jackson have very dissimilar games, yet you want to hold good coaching against him...? Haha amazing. People are willing to use every excuse in the book, rather than admitting Jackson is talented and playing much better than JA (even as a passer). 

 

Wouldnt it it be great if McD and Daboll were smart enough to follow this amazing coaching trend?

[jrober38]

So far the numbers show that Mayfield has been excellent, and the other guys have been really poor.

 

Mayfield looks like he'll be a star in the NFL.

 

Allen, Darnold and Rosen haven't looked good. They need to take massive steps next year to get to the point where they're just average QBs. 

[Bleedingreennc]

9 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Using a combination of the stats and what I've seen watching the rookie QB's here's my take:

 

1)  Baker Mayfield.  Clearly leads the pack and passes the eye test.  Has enough weapons to show that moxy in throwing the football gets rewarded in the NFL.  Solid long term starter for Cleveland.

 

2)  Tied at # 2 are Allen & Darnold.  While both these guys have shown flashes of brilliance in their passing games they have also made some very bad throws.  Darnold clearly has the edge in play makers so we're able to see his passing upside more clearly then Allen's.  An example of this was in the Jet's game against GB.   In a posted video you can see a jet TE make a spectacular one handed grab of a poorly thrown Darnold pass at the goal line.  if you look closely you'll see a GB DB sitting there waiting for the INT which would have been made had this been a Bills TE.  I also think there is a higher risk that both Allen & Darnold will fail then there is with Baker.  On the other hand I believe that Darnold & Allen's upside are higher then Mayfield's

 

3)  Jackson.  This is a real interesting situation where we MIGHT be seeing a change in what defines effective QB play in the NFL.  The key here is whether Jackson can pull this off over the long run.  Jackson is also clearly playing on the best team of the rookie QB's and the Ravens have done a brilliant job of fitting the offense to his strengths.  Jackson is not being asked to win games in the way that Mayfield, Darnold & Allen are. 

 

4)  Rosen.  I think it's fair to say that Rosen has gotten off to the worst start of all the rookie QB's.  Of course that doesn't mean he'll lose the race but he's undeniably behind.  Part of this is clearly on the dumpster fire that is Arizona's offense.  But any honest appraisal of the Bills offense would have to conclude that Allen is playing with just as odious a dumpster fire as Rosen.  Of all the QB's Rosen has provided the fewest reasons to be optimistic.  But it is early in Rosen's career and if the Cards put some weapons around him nobody can rule out that 2 years from now he could be at the top of this list. 

How in the holy hell are Darnold and Allen tied at 2 in your opinion? The numbers aren’t even close

[formerlyofCtown]

22 minutes ago, Iverwig said:

Ok, you still don’t get my point.  In regards to Wilson he’s actually one of two NFL players I actually do have inside info on as I know him and his family very well. The bottom line is Josh was mishandled as he played much earlier than anticipated and there is no denying that. Leaders are true leaders but he was still placed in a bad situation. Josh came around because he got hurt and was allowed to sit and learn from a veteran which should have been the plan all along. 

 

Reference Gruden, how many QB’s did he think would not succeed? Heck he became a fan of EJ. 

 

I suggest you go back and read your first sentence in your first reply to me where you said the front office said the front office wanted him to sit for a year. 

IIRC both Beane and McDermott have stated that Josh starting so soon was not ideal.  Then again if you ask the Mannings a QB drafted that high should start and learn.  I also think in Allens case starting was the best move now as the ups dont make him over confident and the downs dont seem to phase him.

The first sentence of my first reply was...

"Look what sitting for almost his entire first year did for Mahomes" Now I do see where I said that because I do believe that was the case.  So I apologise for calling you out on that.

As for you knowing Wilsons family.  Im sorry but I just dont buy stuff like that.  To many people claim things like that on this board.  Maybe you guys get together in high level business meetings for all I know.  

But your right I also think Gruden likes every QB but I dont.  EJ was never gonna be a barn burner but his confidence got shattered by Marone which is a fault.  He lacked the confidence Allen has.  I think in most cases QBs are ruined by inadaquate coaching and managing take a look at San Fran and NE.  I also think the Rookie wage scale has been a good thing for Rookies as they dont become instant multi-millionaires in the 10s of millions.  But who knows.

I didnt like RG3, Im not a Darnold fan but if he gets reigned in he may stop giving the ball away so much.

As for McDermott he lives next to some that knows someone that knows someone that my cousins best friends Roommates neighbors sisters brothers best friend that they met in a high level business meeting knows.  But maybe the best evidence is that he didnt start the season and still wasnt put in until Peterman through a million INTs.

[Bleedingreennc]

4 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Look  what sitting for almost his entire first year did for Mahomes.

Sitting for a year is not equivalent to being a Rookie.  Everything else is interesting and not a suprise.  Im actually very excited about what the future holds for these QBs.  I cant wait to see them next year.  When they have 2 off seasons and a season under their belts and teams try to figure out how to shut them down completely.

Mayfield-Expect some improvement not a ton I see him in the MVP conversationnext year, before he finishes runner up to Allen 5 or 6 of the next 15-18 years after that(I can hope for the best right) (because he is already playing so well)

Allen-I expect a huge jump, I dont know about the MVP suggestions but at lrast top of the middle(he has had subpar coaching his whole life, now he has good coaching and no doubt he will work his tail off in the offseason)

Rosen-I expect a big jump(Hope he doesnt, but hes a smart QB and a good one)

Darnold-Will likely throw even more Ints next year (unless they force him to play ball control offense for a year or to I dont think he will ever protect the football.)

Lamar Jackson- expect more of the same with some passing improvement(Gregg Roman is in Baltimore, if the rumors are true then expect to see him as HC or OC lots of QB running and trickery)

 

 

No the Bills front office and coach wanted him to sit for a year, dont know where youre getting your intell from here.  Peterman did an excellent job of teaching Allen what not to do in a regular season NFL game.  Russel Wilson was an immediate leader of his team and McDermott is only pointing out the obvious.  McDermott didnt annoint Josh the leader he took that job by the horns.  If you think leaders are appointed on a football team I would say youve either never played or played for Rex Ryan.

He has the tools to be better than both.

Never protect the ball?? Based on the numbers Allen is more turnover prone than Darnold. Jesus, do all Bills fans have the same delusions? 

17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

So far the numbers show that Mayfield has been excellent, and the other guys have been really poor.

 

Mayfield looks like he'll be a star in the NFL.

 

Allen, Darnold and Rosen haven't looked good. They need to take massive steps next year to get to the point where they're just average QBs. 

Darnold hasn’t looked good? 

[formerlyofCtown]

27 minutes ago, 87168 said:

So, Jackson gets an asterisk because his coach is smart enough to alter the offense to fit their QB’s strength? Flacco and Jackson have very dissimilar games, yet you want to hold good coaching against him...? Haha amazing. People are willing to use every excuse in the book, rather than admitting Jackson is talented and playing much better than JA (even as a passer). 

 

Wouldnt it it be great if McD and Daboll were smart enough to follow this amazing coaching trend?

Yup lets have a run oriented offense with a piss poor Oline.  They are concerned primarilly with Allen progressing as a passer.

[CincyBillsFan]

15 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

How in the holy hell are Darnold and Allen tied at 2 in your opinion? The numbers aren’t even close

Because I've watched both of them play.

[Bleedingreennc]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Because I've watched both of them play.

Lol

[zow2]

Cmon, I’m as much of a Bills homer than anyone...but Darnold has been a better QB than Allen. I don’t even have to see the stats.  I know he has at least a few 300+ yd games.  Allen’s receivers may not be quite as good, but no one around the league really fears the Jets receivers and Oline.  As of today, Darnold *looks* like he will be a better passing QB than Allen or Rosen.

[LSHMEAB]

17 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

 

Darnold hasn’t looked good? 

Never. That is one ugly mug.

[Bleedingreennc]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Never. That is one ugly mug.

Sigh, intelligent banter is hard to find these days....

[formerlyofCtown]

36 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

Never protect the ball?? Based on the numbers Allen is more turnover prone than Darnold. Jesus, do all Bills fans have the same delusions? 

Darnold hasn’t looked good? 

Actually based on the numbers not only Has Darnold thrown more picks but he has the higher interception percentage behind a better line with better WRs which is much worse of a difference than it looks because Allen tends to chuck it down field more.

You might also want to consider where they went to school.  Allen is still raw as he didnt have the best coaching.  Darnold went to one of the largest programs in the country.  Those are facts. My opinion however is that Darnold is closer to being what hes gonna be than Allen, but i do believe I said it is correctable.  Ive said all along Darnold will most likely be a bust in my opinion.  He through Ints all through college as well.

We'll see though I hope Im wrong about Darnold I like him.

Edited December 26, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[Bleedingreennc]

4 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Actually based on the numbers not only Has Darnold thrown more picks but he has the higher interception percentage behind a better line with better WRs which is much worse of a difference than it looks because Allen tends to chuck it down field more.

You might also want to consider where they went to school.  Allen is still raw as he didnt have the best coaching.  Darnold went to one of the largest programs in the country.  Those are facts. My opinion however is that Darnold is closer to being what hes gonna be than Allen, but i do believe I said it is correctable.  Ive said all along Darnold will most likely be a bust in my opinion.  He through Ints all through college as well.

And Allen has a mere 7 touchdowns... let me guess, it’s because of the drops? We will revisit this next season

[Tierlifer]

25 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Never. That is one ugly mug.

He looks like former Met/Royals 1B Lucas Duda 

[LSHMEAB]

Just now, Tierlifer said:

He looks like former Met/Royals 1B Lucas Duda 

Not bad. I'm thinking more Buzz from Home Alone.

[Bleedingreennc]

Glad you have so much to bring to the discussion

[WideNine]

Not sure how much these stats matter to me. 5 QBs in very different situations with different skill sets.

 

All of them have the capability to be NFL starters and are in fact, starting for their respective teams.

 

Mayfield seems the most NFL-ready of the bunch.

 

I have a hard time comparing Darnold to Allen as the Bills did not register a hit on Darnold the last time we played the Jets, and they have a running back in McGuire who is getting it done. It is no coincidence that Darnold's game has improved over his disastrous early games as his o-line protection issues have settled down and they have a complimentary rushing attack.

 

Also, they have different skill sets as I cannot envision Darnold breaking any NFL rushing records. That being said, Darnold looks good when stepping into his throws from a clean pocket, and also had nice touch on his TD throw on the run when playing us. Props to him as the Jets look like they have a keeper. I would like to see how he performs with some actual pass rushing pressure and getting occasionally hit. 

 

Allen has grown in my eyes, is an amazing athlete and only Rosen has as bad a supporting cast and we know how he is doing...

 

Jackson is doing a good job using his legs like Allen to get it done, and is pretty good with ball placement on the run. He has decent support, and is doing well in their system. As one poster mentioned, I would like to see how he does when teams start forcing him to play more in the pocket.

 

Out of all of these, I firmly believe that Allen's skills have the most upside. Is he there yet, heck no, but it will be fun to watch what he is able to do with a better supporting cast, more experience, and coaching. Either way, this class of 2018 QB's may end up being something really special.

 

[formerlyofCtown]

16 minutes ago, Bleedingreennc said:

And Allen has a mere 7 touchdowns... let me guess, it’s because of the drops? We will revisit this next season

Wow I didnt even have to say it.  I wonder what the TD percentage is.  With bad Oline and lesser WRs and TE.  The good news is I think we  have as least One that will be better than what they have.

Darnold is a full 2% better.  If you counted rushing TDs Allen has has 6 which is still 5 less.  But we were talking about my issue with all of Darnolds ints.  The good news for him though is that Jim Harbaugh may be coming to town.

 

BTW last game alone I saw three passes that should have been caught for TDs

Edited December 26, 2018 by formerlyofCtown

[BillsFan1988]

On 12/24/2018 at 7:54 PM, RyanC883 said:

I'd say Allen is having the 2nd best season (behind Mayfield).  And I did not want him before the draft.  Pleasantly surprised with his decision making improvement during the season.   Allen has the worst supporting cast of any of these guys.  Rosen has a freaking HOF WR and great RB who should be in his prime.  Jackson has a fantastic D that makes plays, and a good stable of RB's and a decent WR cast, and two good TE's.  Allen has no TE or RB help. 

I say its a debatable 3rd for Allen , Mayfield and Darnold have reached higher ceilings defintely . Please stop with the no help excuse Darnold has really nothing to work with in Ny also.